There are few nights as precious as tonight, the official start of the 2012 regular season. Even after tonight, 255 regular season games remain for us to enjoy. As usual, the defending Super Bowl champion hosts the opening game, and it didn’t take the NFL schedule makers long to decide on an opponent. This will be the 6th time in 8 meetings that the Giants and Cowboys will meet on primetime television. And as usual, the media will turn this game into another referendum on Tony Romo and Eli Manning.

Public perception says that Manning is the better quarterback, based largely exclusively on his post-season success and reputation as a clutch quarterback. And there’s a good reason he has such a reputation: Manning has won 8 of his last 9 playoff games and tied NFL single-season records with seven 4th-quarter comebacks and eight game-winning drives in 2011. Romo has a reputation as the chokiest of chokers, is 1-3 in playoff games, and has been less stellar than Manning late in games. While Manning has 21 career 4th quarter comebacks and is 21-22 in games where he had an opportunity for a 4th quarter comeback, Romo is just 13-20 in 4th quarter comeback opportunities. But let’s leave that to the side for now.

Because based on their regular season statistics, Romo absolutely crushes Manning, at least statistically. The gap shrunk significantly in 2011, but Romo’s track record of production and efficiently is considerably more impressive. Manning entered the league in 2004 but struggled his first three years; Romo first started in 2006 and was above average immediately. But let’s just focus on the past five seasons. The table below displays the statistics each quarterback produced from 2007 to 2011. Note that since Romo has missed time due to injury, I have added a third row, which pro-rates Romo’s numbers to 80 starts:

QB	GS	Cmp/Att	Cmp%	PassYd	Y/A	PTD	INT	Sk-SkYd	NY/A	ANY/A	Rsh-Yd-Td	Fum-FumRec	NetFum	CY/P
Manning	80	1601/2645	60.5	19530	7.4	131	85	128-923	6.7	6.3	133-229-3	47-10	37	5.9
Romo(act)	67	1452/2255	64.4	17931	8.0	130	59	121-763	7.2	7.2	122-359-4	36-16	20	7.0
Romo(pro)	80	1734/2693	64.4	21410	8.0	155	70	144-911	7.2	7.2	146-429-5	43-19	24	7.0

Romo leads in completion percentage, passing yards per game, yards per attempt, passing touchdowns per game, interceptions per game, yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt, rushing, fumbles and converted yards per play. And most of those categories aren’t even that close. The last one, converted yards per play, is probably the most important here, as it takes into account all of the other statistics. (I explained the metric in part 1 of my Greatest Quarterback of All-Time series.) Now turnovers are more random than most think, and from a predictive standpoint, they don’t necessarily tell us a lot about a quarterback’s future performance. ^[1]Manning himself is a good example of this. In ’07, he led the league in interceptions in the regular season but won the Super Bowl. In 2010, he again threw the most interceptions in the … Continue reading But over the last five years Manning has been a turnover machine, with 111 turnovers over his 80 regular season starts; ^[2]While I use the net fumbles fudge historically, NFL.com shows that Manning has 26 lost fumbles since ’07, giving him 111 turnovers. even looking at pro-rated numbers, Romo only has ^[3]Romo has 16 fumbles lost in 67 games since ’07, or 19 pro-rated fumbles. 89 turnovers. That’s not an insignificant difference; add in the fact that Romo has a half-yard edge in NY/A and 26 more pro-rated touchdowns (and the same number of actual touchdowns), and Romo’s statistics have been significantly more impressive. Roughly to the tune of over a converted yard per play over the last five years.

That differential is larger than you probably think. The table below lists the top 25 quarterbacks in converted yards since 2007, and sorts them by converted yards per play (essentially ANY/A with a bonus for rushing touchdowns and a penalty for fumbles; other rushing data is ignored). Jets fans, look away. Trust me.

Rk	QB	GS	Att	PassYd	TD	INT	Sk	SkYd	RshTd	Fum	FumRec	NetFum	ConYd	CY/P
1	Tom Brady	65	2257	18415	153	37	94	562	7	19	5	14	18968	8.0
2	Aaron Rodgers	62	2082	17255	132	37	154	973	16	29	12	17	17067	7.6
3	Tony Romo	67	2255	17931	130	59	121	763	4	36	16	20	16593	7.0
4	Philip Rivers	80	2547	20749	140	68	140	906	3	41	11	30	18743	7.0
5	Drew Brees	79	3116	23976	175	82	98	679	4	35	9	26	22407	7.0
6	Peyton Manning	64	2320	17242	124	59	61	375	4	12	4	8	16532	6.9
7	Matt Schaub	64	2118	16903	92	52	112	748	4	32	9	23	15045	6.7
8	Matt Ryan	62	2022	14238	95	46	85	527	4	20	6	14	13201	6.3
9	Kurt Warner	42	1562	11753	83	45	70	494	1	34	7	27	10104	6.2
10	Ben Roethlisberger	73	2281	18060	113	57	215	1468	8	45	13	32	15487	6.2
11	Brett Favre	61	1946	14338	94	63	101	692	1	28	8	20	12111	5.9
12	Eli Manning	80	2645	19530	131	85	128	923	3	47	10	37	16352	5.9
13	Donovan McNabb	63	2115	15196	82	45	155	1024	5	38	11	27	13077	5.7
14	Kyle Orton	54	1836	12663	71	44	102	628	3	20	4	16	11055	5.7
15	David Garrard	58	1742	12460	71	41	138	876	11	35	8	27	10569	5.6
16	Jay Cutler	73	2384	17282	108	81	148	937	6	42	13	29	14110	5.6
17	Carson Palmer	61	2084	14679	89	73	97	719	4	22	9	13	12145	5.6
18	Joe Flacco	64	1958	13816	80	46	139	991	4	39	11	28	11595	5.5
19	Jason Campbell	63	1924	13120	64	44	140	888	6	45	16	29	10782	5.2
20	Matt Cassel	54	1735	11484	74	44	137	764	3	30	7	23	9590	5.1
21	Josh Freeman	40	1315	8898	51	46	77	461	4	26	12	14	7047	5.0
22	Alex Smith	43	1352	8778	51	31	108	658	2	20	5	15	7335	5.0
23	Matt Hasselbeck	67	2221	14783	80	70	132	860	3	32	10	22	11773	5.0
24	Ryan Fitzpatrick	49	1609	10159	64	57	105	613	3	29	15	14	7901	4.6
25	Mark Sanchez	47	1414	9209	55	51	92	609	12	29	6	23	6955	4.6

Romo is far behind Brady and Rodgers, but he’s essentially tied with Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning (the group is separated by four-hundredths of a yard per play). The younger Manning ranks a respectable 12th, but his production is closer to QB23 than QB3. If not for the “choker” and “clutch” labels they both possess, Romo would be viewed as one of the game’s elite quarterbacks while Manning would be an above-average starter.

To be fair to Manning, he’s improving. His CY/P has jumped from 4.4 to 5.7 to 6.2 to 5.8 to 7.2 over the last five years; Manning was a legitimately elite quarterback in the regular season last year, although 2011 is the first season for which that statement would be true. Romo has seen some variation, but has always outpaced Manning: he was at 6.9 in ’07, 6.2 in ’08, 7.4 in ’09, 6.7 in 2010, and 7.4 last year.

Ah, but the reputations. Manning’s reputation is built on the back of the 2007 and 2011 postseasons, when he performed very well. But that only makes him a modern day Jim Plunkett, not Joe Montana. And while Manning was elite in 2011, he was a below-average quarterback in 2007. Manning led the Giants on three game-winning drives that postseason, an impressive accomplishment and added credence to the philosophy that he comes through in the clutch. But that’s just one side of the coin: in New York’s two Super Bowl postseasons, the Giants played five extremely close games and won them all. Some view that as a sign of good luck; others view it as an indication that Manning is able to elevate his game in the clutch. Historically speaking, those who believe the former have made lots of money off of those who believe the latter.

As for Romo, it all started with the botched hold against the Seahawks. Then Manning outplayed him in their playoff matchup a year later, as Romo’s Cowboys could not reach the end zone on their final drive. ^[4]Note that the Cowboys had a final drive to win the game only after the Giants went three-and-out on their previous possession, which ended on a Manning sack on a third-and-four. Romo did manage a playoff victory, a blowout against the Eagles, but the Cowboys were outclassed by the Vikings a week later. Even worse, Dallas has been kept out of the playoffs since then, earning Romo more criticism.

If you haven’t played around with Pro-Football-Reference’s Game Play Finder, you’re missing out. It’s one of the coolest tools on the internet. We can use it to look at how Manning and Romo have fared in clutch situations. I’m defining a clutch situation as a play in the 4th quarter or overtime of any regular season or playoff game since 2007, when the game was tied or the quarterback’s team was trailing by no more than 8 points.

And in these situations, Manning has been arguably the best quarterback in the league. Check out the numbers ^[5]Note: PFR’s Game Play Finder lists almost everything; one thing it doesn’t list is sack yards lost. I have the raw data but not the energy to get the actual sack yardage lost on sacks, … Continue reading:

Rk	Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	ANY/A
1	Eli Manning	155	254	0.61	2130	19	5	12	8.4	8.3
2	Peyton Manning	130	220	0.591	1691	10	5	4	7.7	7.3
3	Tony Romo	171	286	0.598	2270	13	8	11	7.9	7
4	Drew Brees	192	281	0.683	2163	17	10	8	7.7	6.9
5	Matt Schaub	161	255	0.631	1983	8	7	11	7.8	6.6
6	Aaron Rodgers	108	168	0.643	1484	8	6	20	8.8	6.6
7	Ben Roethlisberger	170	290	0.586	2209	13	4	34	7.6	6.3
8	Jay Cutler	145	248	0.585	1776	15	10	9	7.2	6.1
9	Tom Brady	99	177	0.559	1198	11	7	8	6.8	5.7
10	David Garrard	120	202	0.594	1419	8	5	18	7	5.6
11	Carson Palmer	132	221	0.597	1423	8	6	9	6.4	5.4
12	Brett Favre	130	229	0.568	1679	8	10	14	7.3	5.3
13	Jason Campbell	107	182	0.588	1314	5	7	11	7.2	5.3
14	Donovan McNabb	134	239	0.561	1579	5	4	19	6.6	5.3
15	Matt Ryan	119	204	0.583	1348	9	10	5	6.6	5
16	Matt Cassel	100	185	0.541	1283	9	9	12	6.9	4.9
17	Derek Anderson	77	152	0.507	932	3	3	9	6.1	4.9
18	Philip Rivers	160	289	0.554	1963	12	13	19	6.8	4.8
19	Joe Flacco	111	189	0.587	1292	7	9	11	6.8	4.8
20	Kyle Orton	107	192	0.557	1263	6	9	11	6.6	4.4
21	Mark Sanchez	85	178	0.478	1073	5	8	14	6	3.7
22	Alex Smith	87	156	0.558	990	3	7	15	6.3	3.7
23	Ryan Fitzpatrick	106	187	0.567	1030	4	11	11	5.5	2.7

Of course, you probably noticed that Romo isn’t too far behind. And if we want to be consistent and give Manning credit for his improvement played in 2011, we should probably do the same for Romo. Here is how quarterbacks performed in clutch situations last season:

Rk	Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	ANY/A
1	Tony Romo	58	90	0.644	853	4	0	2	9.5	10
2	Drew Brees	47	66	0.712	604	5	1	1	9.2	9.7
3	Tim Tebow	28	53	0.528	525	3	1	4	9.9	9
4	Eli Manning	80	128	0.625	1099	9	3	5	8.6	8.3
5	Kevin Kolb	27	45	0.6	433	2	1	5	9.6	7.9
6	John Skelton	40	67	0.597	507	4	1	3	7.6	7.4
7	Matthew Stafford	45	81	0.556	571	5	1	4	7	7
8	Ryan Fitzpatrick	38	61	0.623	454	3	2	0	7.4	7
9	Alex Smith	32	56	0.571	405	3	0	7	7.2	6.6
10	Tom Brady	32	57	0.561	390	4	2	3	6.8	6
11	Cam Newton	39	83	0.47	554	2	2	6	6.7	5.2
12	Rex Grossman	44	71	0.62	508	3	4	4	7.2	4.8
13	Matt Ryan	31	64	0.484	381	1	2	3	6	4.3
14	Andy Dalton	40	87	0.46	494	1	4	2	5.7	3.6
15	Philip Rivers	38	66	0.576	393	1	3	6	6	3.3

That’s right: Romo posted arguably the best numbers in the NFL last season in clutch situations. But since that doesn’t match the narrative, don’t expect to see the media mentioning that tonight.

In any event, I don’t believe we can judge much from a small sample, which is why who the “clutch” quarterback of the day changes with the wind. The consistent takeaway is that Tony Romo has been an elite quarterback over the last five years, while Eli Manning has been an elite quarterback for one season. Yes, Manning has been great in the clutch — while Romo hasn’t played nearly as poorly as is portrayed — but that’s over a much smaller sample size. Manning does have the great 4th quarter comeback record, while Romo’s is less than stellar. But Romo’s 4th quarter comeback mark is much better than Aaron Rodgers’, who would be considered a choker if the media wanted to be consistent. The one positive for Romo is that if he does manage to win a Super Bowl, his legacy will change significantly, and he will then become a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate if he can sustain his past level of play for a few more seasons. John Elway, Len Dawson, Steve Young, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning were considered stats guys for much of their careers. Manning, Young and Elway were considered elite quarterbacks who just couldn’t win the big one, while many questioned whether Brees or Dawson were truly elite because of their lack of ultimate success. But all five quarterbacks eventually won Super Bowls in their 30s, and all are current or future Hall of Famers. At 32-years-old, the book is far from closed on Romo’s legacy.