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Guest Post: 4th Quarter Comeback Percentage

Today’s guest post comes from one of the longest followers of this blog (and its predecessor), Richie Wohlers. Richie is 44-year-old accountant from Southern California who is a Dolphins fan despite never being to Florida. As always, we thank our guest posters for contributing.


One of the stereotypical traits of a great quarterback is to be able to rescue his team from certain defeat in the fourth quarter by leading his team to a come-from-behind win. Thanks to the awesome work of Scott Kacsmar, we now have definitions for what it means to have a “4th quarter comeback”.

I began watching football in the early ’80s, and for most of the late ’80s and early ’90s I had heard that Dan Marino and John Elway were battling for the title of most 4th quarter comebacks (4QC). You can run a query on Pro Football Reference and see that when Elway retired, he was tied with Marino for most 4QC. Marino picked up 2 more 4QC after Elway retired and then Marino retired as the all-time leader in the regular season.

In this game in 2009, Peyton Manning recorded his 34th 4QC to become the new all-time leader. Entering the 4th quarter trailing by 3 points and scoring the winning touchdown with 5:23 left isn’t the most exciting of comebacks, but it counts, nonetheless.

Manning remains the leader with 8 more 4QC than Tom Brady and 9 more than Drew Brees.

I was a Dan Marino fan, and always loved when he was listed at the top of the unofficial leaderboard for 4QC, but it felt a little hollow to me. Joe Montana also had a lot of comebacks, but it seemed to me that his team trailed in 4th quarter far less often than Marino’s teams. This meant that Marino had far more chances to rack up his 4QC than did Montana. In fact, Marino’s teams lost almost twice as many games during his career as Montana.

So which QB’s have had the best success rate for 4QC given the number of chances they had?

In order to figure out the 4th Quarter Comeback Percentage (CB%), I am dividing the number of successful 4QC by the number of opportunities. By Kacsmar’s definition, a QB can only earn a comeback if the team trailed or was tied at some point in the fourth quarter, and some type of offensive scoring drive put points on the board in the 4th quarter while the team trailed by one possession or were tied and of course the team had to win the game.

I calculated a 4QC opportunity as the sum of all of a quarterback’s losses, plus all his ties, plus all his successful comebacks. There is a little bit of slop in these numbers for a few reasons.

  • A QB’s W-L-T record on PFR is based on games started, so if a QB came on in relief and trailed in the 4th quarter but did not get a 4QC it will not count as a failed opportunity for him. Likewise, if he does get a 4QC, PFR still won’t credit him with a win.
  • If the defense scored the winning points it would not be a 4QC and would also not count as a failed opportunity.
  • If a team never trailed in the 4th quarter, but the game ended up as a tie, this would have never been an opportunity to earn a 4QC for the QB.
  • I think the 25 points by Neil Lomax was the largest 4th quarter comeback in history. So, any deficit of more than 25 would be nearly impossible, but it will still count as a failed opportunity. I’m fine with that, because any team trailing by more than 25 points probably got there because the QB wasn’t playing well to begin with.

There are probably a few other exceptions, but this should still create a reasonable approximation of 4QC success rate. The denominator is therefore (QB Losses + QB Ties + Successful 4th Quarter Comebacks). The numerator is Successful 4th Quarter comebacks plus QB Ties divided by 2, so a quarterback gets half-credit for each tie.

On average, these quarterbacks have a 19% success rate. The table below shows every QB who has had at least 5 opportunities for 4QC since the merger (including pre-merger stats for quarterbacks who played after the merger, but only back to 1960 for Len Dawson, John Brodie).

The final column shows how each quarterback fared relative to the average 19% success rate. Let’s use Peyton Manning as an example. He had 79 career losses, 0 ties, and 43 successful 4th quarter comebacks: therefore, he had 122 opportunities. Given the 19% success rate for the average quarterback, we would expect an average quarterback to have 23.1 successful comebacks. Instead, Manning has 43, or 19.9 more than expected. That’s the most of any quarterback; his father has the fewest.

PlayerFromToGGSWLT4QCOppsCB%4QC Above Average
Peyton Manning199820152662651867904312235%19.9
Tom Brady20002018269267207600359537%17
Johnny Unitas195619732111851186343410136%16.9
Daryle Lamonica196319741518866166184053%13.4
Ben Roethlisberger200420182162141446913110131%12.4
Joe Montana19791994192164117470267336%12.2
Tony Romo2004201615612778490247333%10.2
John Elway198319982342311488213111428%9.9
Dan Marino198319992422401479303312626%9.2
Matt Ryan20082018174174102720279927%8.3
Jake Delhomme199920111039656400195932%7.8
Andy Dalton2011201812012068502207229%7.4
Russell Wilson2012201811211275361175432%7.3
Drew Brees2001201826426315510803414224%7.1
Charley Johnson1961197516512459578198427%7.1
Matthew Stafford20092018141141667502610126%6.9
Andrew Luck20122018868653330164933%6.7
Doug Williams19781989888138421176029%6.1
Randall Cunningham1985200116113582521197227%5.9
Jim Kelly19861996160160101590218026%5.9
Jay Schroeder198519941189961380165430%5.8
Joe Theismann1974198516712477470186528%5.7
Bart Starr1956197119615794576188126%5.7
Earl Morrall1956197625510263363145329%5.5
John Brodie19571973201158747682110524%5.1
Roger Staubach1969197913111485290134231%5.1
Fran Tarkenton1961197824623912410962914422%4.8
Don Strock1974198816722166071354%4.5
Mike Phipps197019811197138312124529%4.5
Derek Carr20142018787832460166226%4.3
Dave Krieg19801998213175987702310023%4.1
Philip Rivers200420182122081189002611622%4.1
Ken Stabler1970198418414696491166625%4
Len Dawson1957197521115994578158024%3.9
Tim Tebow20102012351686061250%3.7
Jay Cutler20062017153153747902310223%3.7
Neil O'Donnell1991200312510055450156025%3.6
Jake Plummer1997200614313669670208723%3.5
Ryan Tannehill20122018888842460156125%3.5
Dak Prescott2016201848483216082433%3.5
Brian Sipe1974198312511257550177224%3.4
Sonny Jurgensen1957197421814769717189622%3.3
Jim McMahon198219961199767300114127%3.2
Danny White197619881669262300114127%3.2
John Skelton20102012201789061540%3.2
Nick Foles2012201854442618082631%3.1
Roman Gabriel1962197718315786647168722%3
Don Majkowski19871996905726301104126%2.7
Damon Huard1998200864271512061833%2.6
Deshaun Watson201720182322148051338%2.5
Terry Bradshaw19701983168158107510156623%2.5
Kent Graham1992200181381721082928%2.5
Bob Griese1967198016115192563157422%2.5
Matt Flynn200820145373404850%2.5
Cam Newton2011201812312268531156922%2.4
Jack Trudeau19861995674919300104025%2.4
Alex Smith2005201816616194661188522%2.4
Scott Hunter1971197964422118362728%2.4
Rich Gannon1987200415713276560167222%2.4
Jeff Rutledge197919921171027141238%2.2
Steve Bono1985199988422814062030%2.2
Bruce Gradkowski200620143720614062030%2.2
Jay Fiedler1995200576603723083126%2.1
Erik Kramer19871999836731360114723%2.1
Drew Stanton200820173817116041040%2.1
Vince Young2006201160503119072627%2.1
Jimmy Garoppolo2014201826108203560%2.1
Michael Vick2001201514311561511146622%2
Marc Wilson19801990126603228093724%2
Marcus Mariota2015201856552728093724%2
Joe Flacco2008201816316396670188521%1.9
James Harris1969197983412516062227%1.8
Billy Kilmer1961197817012561521146722%1.8
Jim Miller1995200237271512051729%1.8
Steve Bartkowski1975198612912759680188621%1.7
Cody Carlson198819944519118041233%1.7
Jamie Martin199620075384403743%1.7
Charlie Batch1998201281552530093923%1.6
Bill Munson19641979107662734584722%1.6
Tommy Kramer1977199012911054560157121%1.6
Donovan McNabb1999201116716198621167921%1.6
Bill Nelsen1963197290744031384223%1.6
Brett Favre1991201030229818611202814020%1.5
Carson Palmer20042017182181928812211120%1.5
Drew Bledsoe19932006194193989502411920%1.5
Joe Namath1965197714012962634158221%1.5
Turk Schonert1981198972127503838%1.5
Dan Fouts19731987181171868412110620%1.4
Bernie Kosar1985199612610853541146921%1.4
Jared Goff2016201838382414051926%1.4
Ty Detmer1993200354251114051926%1.4
Trent Green1997200812011356570157221%1.4
Shaun King1999200434241410041429%1.4
Brad Johnson1994200817712572530146721%1.3
Tony Eason1983199090512823073023%1.3
Jeff Kemp1981199196291612141726%1.3
Steve Young1985199916914394490136221%1.3
Brock Osweiler2012201849301515052025%1.2
Matt Moore2007201749301515052025%1.2
Doug Flutie1986200592663828083622%1.2
Warren Moon1984200020820310210102512620%1.2
Cliff Stoudt198019896620911041527%1.2
Jim Hart19661984201180878852011320%1.1
David Garrard20022010867639370104721%1.1
Tim Couch19992003625922370104721%1.1
Ray Lucas19962002551587031030%1.1
Baker Mayfield20182018141367031030%1.1
Tom Savage2014201713927031030%1.1
Ron Jaworski1974198918814373691178720%1
Bobby Hoying19962000221339131327%1
Quincy Carter2001200438341816052124%1
Jim Plunkett1971198615714472720189020%1
Teddy Bridgewater2014201835291712041625%1
Kevin Kolb200720123421912041625%1
Trent Dilfer1994200713011358550146920%0.9
John Friesz1990200069381325073222%0.9
Kirk Cousins2012201878733437294821%0.9
Brian Hoyer2009201865371621062722%0.9
Aaron Rodgers20052018165158100571147220%0.9
Kordell Stewart19952005125874834094321%0.9
Patrick Mahomes20172018171713402633%0.9
Dieter Brock19851985151511402633%0.9
John Fourcade1987199024117402633%0.9
Donald Hollas199119983284402633%0.9
Elvis Grbac19942001105704030083821%0.8
John Hadl1962197722416682759159920%0.8
Pat Haden1976198165553519152522%0.8
Byron Leftwich2003201260502426073321%0.8
Chris Simms20042009231679031225%0.7
Rex Grossman2003201254472522062821%0.7
Stan Humphries1989199788815031083921%0.6
Mark Rypien19882001104784731083921%0.6
Jon Kitna1997201114112450740189220%0.6
Bobby Hebert1985199611810056440115520%0.6
Bob Avellini1975198473502327073421%0.6
Vinny Testaverde198720072332149012312915319%0.6
Todd Collins1995201050211110031323%0.5
A.J. Feeley200120112818810031323%0.5
Steve Fuller1979198690421923062921%0.5
Josh Freeman2009201562612536094520%0.5
Sage Rosenfels2002201044126602825%0.5
Josh Allen2018201812115602825%0.5
Danny Wuerffel1997200225104602825%0.5
T.J. Yates2011201722104602825%0.5
Brett Hundley201620171593602825%0.5
Steve McNair1995200716115391620157719%0.4
Jeff Hostetler19851997152835132084020%0.4
Matt Schaub200420181489247450115620%0.4
Dennis Shaw197019755037827263520%0.4
Trevor Siemian2015201726241311031421%0.4
Shane Matthews1996200431221111031421%0.4
Anthony Wright200020073119811031421%0.4
Matt Cavanaugh1979199111219811031421%0.4
Mike McMahon200120052914311031421%0.4
Eli Manning2004201823223011611402714119%0.3
Billy Volek2001201139103702922%0.3
Paul Justin1995199934103702922%0.3
Glenn Foley199419992192702922%0.3
David Archer198419895523913131721%0.3
Terry Hanratty196919765018612031520%0.2
Steve Beuerlein1988200314710247550136819%0.1
Brian Griese1998200893834438094719%0.1
Bubby Brister1986200099753738094719%0.1
Pat Ryan1978199114519118021020%0.1
Chris Redman20002011311248021020%0.1
Brooks Bollinger20042008211028021020%0.1
Carson Wentz2016201840402317042119%0
Rob Johnson1995200348291217042119%0
Colin Kaepernick2011201669582830073719%0
Edd Hargett196919734381611819%0
Paul McDonald198019868521813031619%0
Doug Johnson20002004251129021118%-0.1
Pete Liske1964197248291315131918%-0.1
Aaron Brooks20002006939038520126419%-0.1
Tom Owen197419812694501617%-0.1
Steve Walsh1989199980382018042218%-0.2
Shaun Hill2005201649351718042218%-0.2
Scott Brunner1980198573301218042218%-0.2
Dan Pastorini1971198314011756610147519%-0.2
Heath Shuler199419972922814031718%-0.2
Matt Leinart200620123318810021217%-0.3
Bobby Scott197319814114410021217%-0.3
Neil Lomax1981198810810147522116518%-0.3
Ken O'Brien1984199312911050591137318%-0.3
Mark Sanchez2009201879733736084418%-0.3
Bob Gagliano1982199232137601714%-0.3
Sean Salisbury1987199640126601714%-0.3
Mike Moroski197919866993601714%-0.3
Oliver Luck198319862093601714%-0.3
Gary Hogeboom1980198979371819042317%-0.4
Gary Cuozzo1963197282402119042317%-0.4
Trent Edwards2007201238331419042317%-0.4
Tyrod Taylor2011201862462321142617%-0.4
Case Keenum2012201857542628063418%-0.4
Gifford Nielsen197819835514311021315%-0.5
Scott Campbell198419904513211021315%-0.5
Marc Bulger20022009969541540126618%-0.5
Austin Davis2012201716103701813%-0.5
Bruce Mathison198319871892701813%-0.5
Charlie Whitehurst200620162692701813%-0.5
Ed Luther198019846192701813%-0.5
Cleo Lemon200520081681701813%-0.5
Steve DeBerg19781998206140538611910618%-0.6
Kelly Holcomb199720073724816031916%-0.6
Mike Glennon201320182722616031916%-0.6
Rodney Peete19892004104874542095118%-0.6
Craig Whelihan199719981914212021414%-0.6
David Woodley1980198558533418132216%-0.7
Eric Zeier1995200028124801911%-0.7
Alex Van Pelt1995200331113801911%-0.7
Bill Troup1974198043113801911%-0.7
Luke McCown2004201562102801911%-0.7
Tarvaris Jackson2006201559341717032015%-0.8
Steve Ramsey1970197654311417032015%-0.8
Steve Grogan1975199014913575600137318%-0.8
Mark Brunell1994201119315178730168918%-0.8
Vince Ferragamo1977198675532726053116%-0.9
Sam Darnold20182018131349011010%-0.9
Tom Tupa198820042201349011010%-0.9
Mark Herrmann19821992401239011010%-0.9
Blaine Gabbert2011201856481335074217%-0.9
Hugh Millen198719954025718032114%-1
JaMarcus Russell200720093125718032114%-1
Mike Tomczak19851999185734231063716%-1
Todd Blackledge1983198946291514021613%-1
Kyle Orton2005201487824240084817%-1.1
Matt Robinson197719826920101001119%-1.1
Joe Reed19721979501991001119%-1.1
Josh Rosen20182018141331001119%-1.1
Dan Orlovsky20052015271221001119%-1.1
Geno Smith2013201840311219032214%-1.2
Joe Ferguson19731990186171799202011218%-1.2
Matt Cassel20052018108813645095417%-1.2
Frank Reich1985199811820515021712%-1.2
Lynn Dickey1971198515211145633127817%-1.3
Troy Aikman1989200016516594710158617%-1.3
Bob Lee196919806330191101128%-1.3
Mitchell Trubisky201720182626151101128%-1.3
Mike Boryla19741978231981101128%-1.3
Chad Hutchinson20022004151431101128%-1.3
Stan Gelbaugh19891996201211101128%-1.3
Bob Berry1965197578522029343615%-1.3
Chad Pennington2000201089814437074416%-1.3
Danny Kanell1996200343241013111510%-1.3
Marty Domres1969197790321220032313%-1.4
Wade Wilson19811998125693633063915%-1.4
Seneca Wallace200520136422616021811%-1.4
Derek Anderson2006201878492029053415%-1.4
EJ Manuel20132017301861201138%-1.5
Robert Griffin2012201845401525042914%-1.5
Gary Danielson19761988101602831153715%-1.5
Jack Thompson197919845121417021911%-1.6
Ryan Leaf199820012521417021911%-1.6
Mike Pagel19821993132541736164315%-1.6
Kellen Clemens20062017642181301147%-1.6
Tim Rattay20002007401851301147%-1.6
John Reaves19721987511741301147%-1.6
Craig Morton1965198220714481621127517%-1.7
Kerry Collins19952011198180819902112018%-1.7
Tony Adams197519875310190090%-1.7
Jeff Blake1992200511910039610127316%-1.8
Jim Harbaugh1987200017714066740158917%-1.8
Rick Mirer1993200380682444085215%-1.8
Jake Locker20112014302391401157%-1.8
Al Woodall19691974271951401157%-1.8
Akili Smith19992002221731401157%-1.8
Doug Pederson199320041001731401157%-1.8
Jeff Komlo19791983251621401157%-1.8
David Whitehurst1977198354371620122311%-1.9
Tommy Maddox1992200592361520122311%-1.9
Steve Pelluer198419906530920122311%-1.9
Kyle Boller2003201167472027043113%-1.9
Browning Nagle19911996241441000100%-1.9
J.P. Losman2004201145331023032612%-1.9
Dave Wilson1981198853311219022110%-2
Brandon Weeden201220183525619022110%-2
Billy Joe Tolliver1989199979471532053714%-2
Matt Hasselbeck1999201520916085750159017%-2
Timm Rosenbach19891992262051501166%-2
Christian Ponder2011201438361421122410%-2
Jeff Garcia1999200912511658580116916%-2.1
Ken Dorsey20042008171321100110%-2.1
Tyler Thigpen20072014291211100110%-2.1
Gus Frerotte19942008147934547185615%-2.1
Colt McCoy20102018382772002229%-2.2
Boomer Esiason19841997187173809301911217%-2.2
Jameis Winston2015201856542133053813%-2.2
Charlie Frye20052009262371601176%-2.2
Brady Quinn20072012242041601176%-2.2
Greg Landry19681984146984451386215%-2.2
Daunte Culpepper1999200910510041590117016%-2.2
Eric Hipple19801989102572829043312%-2.2
Jacoby Brissett20162018231751200120%-2.3
Cade McNown19992000251531200120%-2.3
Vince Evans19771995100391425032811%-2.3
Craig Erickson199219975236142102239%-2.4
Steve Dils1979198810627101701186%-2.4
Mark Malone1980198973542330043412%-2.4
Billy Joe Hobert19951999291741300130%-2.5
Jimmy Clausen20102015221411300130%-2.5
Scott Mitchell1991200199713239064513%-2.5
Chris Weinke20012007292021801195%-2.6
Steve Spurrier1967197610638132412279%-2.6
Patrick Ramsey200220083724101400140%-2.6
Bert Jones19731982102964749085714%-2.8
Mike Livingston1968197991753143165013%-3
David Klingler19921997332442001215%-3
Sam Bradford2010201883833448175613%-3.1
Gary Huff19731978572872101225%-3.2
Phil Simms1979199316415995640117515%-3.2
Jason Campbell2006201490793247075413%-3.2
Chuck Long19861991272141700170%-3.2
Chad Henne2008201868531835043910%-3.4
Richard Todd197619851191084859196914%-3.6
Kurt Warner199820091241166749075613%-3.6
Randy Wright19841988463272501264%-3.9
Joe Pisarcik19771984613092100210%-4
Bobby Douglass196919789153163613409%-4.1
Tony Banks1996200596783543054810%-4.1
Blake Bortles2014201875732449065511%-4.4
Jim Zorn197619871401064462097113%-4.4
Chris Miller1987199998923458086612%-4.5
Joey Harrington2002200781762650065611%-4.6
Dave Brown199220017360263402366%-4.8
David Carr2002201294792356076311%-4.9
Josh McCown2002201899762353065910%-5.2
Randy Johnson196619767549103812416%-5.3
Norm Snead196119761781595210071412114%-5.4
Bill Kenney1980198810677344303467%-5.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick200520181411265075198511%-6.6
Ken Anderson1971198619217291810109111%-7.2
Jim Everett19861997158153648901110011%-7.9
Chris Chandler1988200418015267850109511%-8
Jeff George19902001131124467808869%-8.3
Archie Manning197119841511393510131111511%-9.3

Notes:

  • Matt Flynn has 3 wins as a starter, and all 3 were 4QC. He is also credited with a 4QC in a game that ended in a tie, that he didn’t start.  I don’t know if that was an error, or if Kacsmar/PFR has removed the requirement that a game end in a victory.
  • Don Strock’s percentage looks good, but that’s because 6 of his 7 4QC were in relief. His only 4QC in a game he started, was also the last game he played in his career.  Strock played in 145 games in relief, so his opportunities are artificially low.
  • The 4 QB’s who are generally considered to be the best ever (Brady, Montana, Manning and Unitas) are the top 4 in CB% among QB’s with at least 100 starts.
  • Roger “Captain Comeback” Staubach ranks 8th at 31% among quarterbacks with 100+ starts.
  • Speaking of Cowboys, Dak Prescott (33%) and Tony Romo (33%) have slightly higher success rates than Staubach.
  • The league average is a CB% of 19%.
  • Vinny Testaverde has the most Opps (153), but an average CB% of 19%.
  • Joe Pisarcik has the most Opps (21) without a 4QC.
  • Among QB’s with at least 100 starts, Jeff George has the lowest CB% (9%).
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