Bryan Frye is back with another fun guest post.  Bryan, as you may recall, owns and operates his own great site at http://www.thegridfe.com/, where he focuses on NFL stats and history.  You can view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link.

Oh, and Happy Thanksgiving to all the loyal Football Perspective readers!

Win Contribution Rating

It’s Thanksgiving. I don’t have a ton of time to write; you don’t have a ton of time to read. Let’s make this snappy.

A few months ago, I began using a rating that I feel better describes a quarterback’s contributions to helping his team win. I am terrible at coming up with names for stuff like that, but Football Guy Adam Harstad swooped in like a guardian angel and suggested the name “Win Contribution Rating.” I liked it, and I began using it without delay.

I used three metrics that correlate highly with future wins: Brian Burke’s EPA/P, Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and my Adjusted Yards per Play (AYP). ^[1]Please note that the difference between the 45 yard penalty Chase uses and the 50 yard penalty I use for interceptions is based on this article by Brian Burke. I chose 50 as a compromise between the … Continue reading  The correlation coefficients with future wins (i.e., Year N+1 wins) for the individual metrics are .273 for EPA/P, .265 for DVOA, and .256 for AYP. ^[2]This includes all quarterbacks for which data is available from both FO and AFA, from 1999-2012. I did not include 2013 because I didn’t know year N + 1 wins; I’m not in the fortune telling … Continue reading When I ran those in a multiple regression, I got the following best fit equation (rounded):

Win% = .5 + EPA/P *.39 + DVOA * .13 + AYP * .008

Because the basis of this regression is win percentage, the equation spits out small decimals that I find aren’t relatable to most of the casual fans I know. To transform this into a number that resembles the NFL passer rating that people already know, I simply multiply by 140 to find the Win Contribution Rating. ^[3]This may seem strange, but keep in mind that the NFL multiples by 16.67 to achieve its final passer rating.

The highest score since 1999 belongs to Peyton Manning in his virtuoso 2004 performance. Let’s take a look at his rating:

EPA/P: .38
DVOA: 58.9%
AYP: 9.1
WCR = (.5 + .38 * .39 + .589 * .13 + 9.1 * .008) * 140 = 111.7

Here’s a look at the top 100 rated QB seasons from 1999-2013. ^[4]Remember, the EPA/P and DVOA go back to 1999 and 1989, respectively. The dream is that we will one day be able to get these awesome metrics for older seasons; I imagine Marino’s 1984 might … Continue reading

Not many surprises here. The top rated seasons are seasons that most of us would agree are among the best of all time. Sixteen of the top twenty spots are occupied by surefire Hall of Famers, with two others coming from quarterback with an outside shot at a bronze bust. You also have Nick Foles’ 2013 and Daunte Culpepper’s 2004, which – anomalies or not – are undeniably great statistical seasons. ^[5]Note that when I say a quarterback had a great season, I mean a particular quarterback, behind a particular offensive line, with particular skill players and a particular defensive supporting cast, … Continue reading

Coming soon: A look at the quarterback performances of the current season. And, as always, please let me know your thoughts in the comments.