Bryan Frye, owner and operator of the great site www.thegridfe.com/, is back for another guest post. You can also view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle.

I spent a few weeks this offseason parsing out quarterback spike and kneel numbers from post-2002 play by play data. Chase published the findings, which I believe are a useful resource when trying to assess a QB’s stats. ^[1]For instance, 180 of Peyton Manning’s 303 rush attempts since 2002 have been kneels. He has lost 185 yard on those plays. Why in the world should we include those in his total output? … Continue reading Since I have the data available, I thought it would be good to use it.

Regular readers know Chase uses Adjusted Net Yards per pass Attempt as the primary stat for measuring quarterback performance. ^[2]It’s not perfect, but it’s at least easy to understand and calculate, and is not proprietary like DVOA, ESPN’s QBR, or PFF’s quarterback grades. I am going to do something similar, but I am going to incorporate rushing contribution as well. This is something Chase talked about doing awhile ago, but we didn’t have the kneel or spike data available. ^[3]For another thing Chase wrote on combining rushing and passing data — while (gasp) analyzing Tim Tebow — click here. I’ll call the end product Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P). The formula, for those curious: ^[4]I use 25 as the modifier for fumbles based on the idea that a QB fumble is worth roughly -50 yards, and fumble recovery is a 50/50 proposition.

[Yards + Touchdowns*20 – Interceptions*45 – Fumbles*25 + First Downs*9] / Plays, where

Yards = pass yards + rush yards – sack yards + yards lost on kneels
Touchdowns = pass touchdowns + rush touchdowns
First Downs = (pass first downs + rush first downs) – touchdowns
Plays = pass attempts + sacks + rush attempts – spikes – kneels

There isn’t enough room to include the raw stats and the adjusted stats in the same table, so I have split them into two tables. ^[5]Only QB seasons with at least 300 action plays are included. I doubt anyone wants to see 2006 Ingle Martin’s two kneels for -5 yards taking up space in the table. If you don’t care about the inputs as much and want to look at the end results, skip to the next table. If you want to see the ingredients before sating your statistical hunger, you can read this table thus: in 2002, Aaron Brooks of the Saints completed 283 of 528 passes for 3572 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. He took 36 sacks, on which he lost 236 yards. He had 0 spikes and gained 165 passing first downs. He turned 62 carries into 253 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had 11 fumbles. He took 6 kneels and lost 6 yards on those kneels, and he gained 21 first downs on the ground.

The table above is more of a reference point, so I am not going to offer comment on it. However, it is fully sortable and searchable, in case you’re interested.

The following table presents total adjusted yardage values for the 388 qualifying seasons since 2002. It is initially sorted by value above replacement, but you can sort and search as is your wont. You can read the table thus: in 2013, Peyton Manning of the Broncos had 684 action plays for 5349 yards, 56 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 11 fumbles, and 290 first downs. This adds up to 7850 total adjusted yards at a rate of 11.48 per play. His per play rate was 3.34 TAYP/P above average, giving him a value of (3.34 * 684 =) 2283 Total Adjusted Yards over average. ^[6]Numbers off due to rounding. Using 80% of league average as replacement level, he was 4.97 TAY/P above replacement, giving him (4.97 * 684 =) 3396 Total Adjusted Yards over replacement value. The table below shows all 387 seasons for quarterbacks with at least 300 action plays since 2002. You can change the filter in the dropdown box to view more, or use the search or sort functions.

To prevent this post from getting too long, I’ll keep my commentary brief and let you provide your thoughts in the comments. A few thoughts:

• The ranking of the replacement column is more easily affected by volume, so, if efficiency is your thing, the value column may be your better choice of sorting options.

• Peyton Manning is very good at picking up first downs. The top four seasons in first down percentage all belong to him. His proclivity for moving the chains plays a significant part in moving him ahead of Aaron Rodgers in the TAY/P stat. Manning’s 2004 is the top rated season on a per-play and total value basis, and it ranks second in replacement value, despite the low volume of action plays. Note that Brady’s ’07 would looks even better with a strength of schedule adjustment.

• Along with Manning’s 2004 (and 2013), Tom Brady’s 2007 is on most people’s shortlist for the title of greatest QB season of all time. It’s no different in the Value column, with those seasons taking the top spots.

• The top of the list comprises the usual suspects. With few exceptions, it’s basically the  Manning-Brady-Drew Brees-Rodgers-Philip Rivers Show. I doubt this surprises anyone.

• Daunte Culpepper’s 2004 season will end up going down in history with Joe Montana’s 1984 ^[7]You know, to the extent anything Montana did could be overlooked. and Milt Plum’s 1960 as one of the overlooked great seasons of all time. Of course, because it is overlooked, it will only go down in history in the minds of folks like us.

• You could make an argument that Steve McNair deserved sole possession of the AP MVP award in 2003. He missed a few games, but he outstripped Manning in nearly every rate category. But the counter is that he had only 75% as many action plays as Manning did that year.

• On a national level, Trent Green is generally a footnote in the Kurt Warner biography. However, Green put up tremendous numbers for both the Rams and the Chiefs. He was good in Washington too, and I give him credit for knowing when to get off a sinking ship.

• It will be personally satisfying for me when Tony Romo retires and Cowboys fans get to see what a bad quarterback really looks like.

• It’s hard to believe, but there was a time when Matt Schaub was a good quarterback. This really happened.

• David Carr and Derek Carr both rank in the bottom ten for total value. Both David and Derek are also millionaires, so don’t feel too bad for them.

• Jay Cutler in Denver compared with Jay Cutler in Chicago is like two completely different quarterbacks. His best season for the Bears yielded 211 marginal adjusted yards of value, whereas his last two Broncos seasons were worth 583 and 899, respectively.

That’s all I have to say about that. What do you think?