Munir Mohamed, a reader of Football Perspective, is back for another guest post. And I thank him for it.
Methodology: I looked at the expected touchdown rate on each yard line from inside the five-yard line in goal-to-go situations, then assigned touchdowns over expectation based on the number of scores above or below average the expected rate. For example, passes from the 1-yard line score a touchdown 50% of the time. Therefore, if a quarterback throws a touchdown when the line of scrimmage is the one, he receives +0.5 touchdowns over expectation. If he didn’t throw a touchdown, he is credited with -0.5 touchdowns over expectation. The numbers in this article are from 1998-2014. Note that touchdowns, like nearly every other statistic in football, is a reflection of not just a player, but his team. A player who scores highly in this metric may simply be great at scoring touchdowns, may have played with coaches or teammates who significantly aided his production, may be lucky over a small sample size, or a combination of several of those factors. But we can discuss the reasons behind the data in the comments: let’s get to the data, and begin with passing touchdowns.
Tom Brady is by far the best goal line quarterback by this measurement, leading the Patriots to 20 more touchdowns through the air than we would expect based on league-average rates. Brady did it by being amazing from the 1- and 2-yard lines. There, he completed over 67% of his passes with 64 touchdown throws and zero interceptions. Brady has a commanding lead in 1-yard and 2-yard line touchdowns over expectation (he also leads from the 5-yard line). For what it’s worth, Rob Gronkowski “only” has nine touchdowns from inside of two yards.
As you would expect, the better NFL quarterbacks are generally rated higher by this stat. All of the passers in the top 10 in Adjusted Yards per Attempt over expectation made it to a pro bowl during their careers. The bottom 10 of the list features some draft busts like Joey Harrington and Blaine Gabbert; on the other hand, it also includes pro bowl caliber players like Trent Green, Jay Cutler, and Eli Manning.
Rushing
One of the first things that jumps out in this list is that quarterbacks are disproportionately represented at the top. Seven of the top 21 in touchdowns over expectation were quarterbacks. This falls in line with past research that indicated the effectiveness of quarterbacks in goal line situations. Jerome Bettis was +2.04 in touchdowns over expectation, consistent with his reputation. However, at the 1-yard line, Bettis was +2.81 touchdowns over expectation; that means he was negative overall from the 2-5 yard lines. Tomlinson, Alexander, and Holmes are on the top of the list which is no surprise given that they were the three most dominant fantasy players of their era.
The bottom of the list is interesting. The two worst players at scoring touchdowns were Edgerrin James and Matt Forte, which is in line with the conventional wisdom of neither being good short yardage backs. Somehow Edgerrin James managed to get the 2nd most carries inside of the 5 even though he was ineffective at it. Four of the bottom 5 will probably be known in the long run for being frustrating fantasy football players. The lack of goal line touchdowns explains why fantasy football owners loathed those running backs. Mike Alstott and Jamal Lewis were known as big guys with reputations of being reliable in the short yardage, but they finished in the bottom 10 of this measurement.
The first thing you will notice about this list is that tight ends dominate the top. The top 5 in touchdowns over expectation are tight ends. Vernon Davis leads with an absurd 8 touchdowns over expectation. He did it by scoring a TD on 85% of his targets inside the 5 yard line. Even though tight ends dominate the top of the list, the all-time leader in scores by a tight end, Tony Gonzalez, finished 11th worst by this measure. Despite that, Gonzalez leads all receivers with 26 total touchdowns inside the 5 yard line from 1998-2014. And, of course, finishing with a zillion targets is in fact a very good indicator that Gonzalez was great in the red zone. As always, you should be very cautious when putting targets in the denominator of any formula.
There seems to be little correlation between touchdowns over expectation and wide receiver ability. The worst player by this measurement was Reggie Wayne. Noted redzone weapon, Randy Moss, had a negative touchdowns over expectation. The #2 receiver in touchdowns over expectation is the inconsistent Brandon Stokley. Again, this may be a reflection of what happens when using targets instead of perhaps, pass routes run, in the denominator.
Finally, let’s look at the touchdown rate from each yardline inside the five, broken down by run or pass:
At the 1 yard line, rushing attempts score at a higher rate than pass attempts. But, on each yard line afterwards, passes score at a higher rate. NFL teams ran more than they passed on each yard line from the 1-3. At the 4 yard line, passing takes a slight lead. Teams could possibly score more points if they started throwing more at the goal line, although anecdotally, it feels like that switch may have already begun.
