Today’s guest post comes from one of the longest followers of this blog (and its predecessor), Richie Wohlers. Richie is 44-year-old accountant from Southern California who is a Dolphins fan despite never being to Florida. As always, we thank our guest posters for contributing.

Previously, I looked at linebackers and centers in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. With Andre Johnson’s recent retirement announcement, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at wide receivers next. As before, I am just taking a look at post-merger players by using some objective factors to try to get a picture of what a typical HOFer looks like. Those factors are All-Pros, Pro Bowls, Weighted AV, Total AV, Super Bowl Appearances and Super Bowl wins). I am going to classify all players into a single position for simplicity. If you are interested in knowing the details of my calculation, see footnote. ^[1]Methodology: For All-Pros, Pro Bowls, Career AV and Total AV, I am looking at the average numbers for each player at his position. In an attempt to make the average HOFer at a position worth 100 … Continue reading

I explored the relationship between statistics (receptions, yards, touchdowns) and HOF induction for WRs, and it doesn’t improve the correlation. My “Career Score” is more aligned with HOF inductions than any single receiving statistic. The correlations are hurt by weak stats from HOFers like Swann and Hayes. And they are also hurt by big numbers from non-HOFers like Henry Ellard, Harold Jackson and Football Perspective hero Jimmy Smith.

Wide Receivers

There are 18 post-merger wide receivers in the hall of fame. I am classifying Charley Taylor as a WR, even though he also played 2+ years as a RB. But, his RB stats count towards his HOF rating.

Induction
First year: 4 players
Median: 5 years
Longest: 29 years (Bob Hayes)

Drafted
First Rounders: 10 players
Highest: 3rd overall (Charley Taylor)
Lowest: 9th round (109th overall) – Don Maynard. Cris Carter was taken in the supplemental draft.
Median: 18th overall
Since the merger, 5 players have been drafted higher than Charley Taylor. (Lam Jones, Irving Fryar, Keyshawn Johnson, Charles Rogers, Calvin Johnson). None are in the HOF yet.

Honors
Most All-Pros: 10 (Jerry Rice)
Fewest All-Pros: 0 (Andre Reed, Tim Brown)
Average All-Pros: 2 (Warfield, Hayes, Carter, eg.)
Most Pro Bowls: 13 (Jerry Rice)
Fewest Pro Bowls: 3 (Monk, Swann, Stallworth, Hayes and Joiner)
Average Pro Bowls: 6 (Fred Biletnikoff)

Approximate Value
Most weighted AV: 159 (Jerry Rice)
Least weighted AV: 62 (Lynn Swann)
Average weighted AV: 99 (Alworth, Reed, Carter, eg.)
Most total AV: 250 (Jerry Rice)
Least total AV: 73 (Lynn Swann)
Average total AV: 133 (Andre Reed)

Super Bowls
All the HOF WRs played in a Super Bowl except Charlie Joiner, Steve Largent and Cris Carter. Eleven of the 18 inductees have won a Super Bowl. Swann and Stallworth lead the way with 4 Super Bowl wins.

Career Score
Highest: 221 (Jerry Rice)
Lowest: 48 (Charlie Joiner)
Closest to Average (100): Michael Irvin (99)
It’s worth noting that 100 is my theoretical average based on the average accomplishments of HOFers. Since Jerry Rice laps the field in most factors, only 1/3 of the HOFers actually have scores above 100.

What is the baseline HOFer?

Charlie Joiner has the lowest career score. Swann and Stallworth have the weakest resumes if Super Bowls are eliminated. Many WRs have made the HOF despite a lack of Super Bowl appearances. Tim Brown and Andre Reed didn’t have any All Pros, but they each made at least 7 Pro Bowls. Swann had the lowest weighted (62) and total (73) AV, but obviously made up for it with his 4 Super Bowl wins, and he had an All-Pro nod.

Who is not in, but should be?

Cliff Branch stands out as the biggest HOF snub in my system. His career score of 107 trails only Rice, Alworth and Warfield. I’m definitely going to defer to Brad O’s subjective ratings of WRs: He said that Branch didn’t have enough good seasons. But the good seasons he had were pretty good. He had 3 All Pros and 3 Super Bowl wins. Jerry Rice is the only other WR who can say that.

Terrell Owens is just behind Branch, with a score of 105. He’ll be in the HOF very soon.

Next up is Drew Pearson. His resume is similar to Branch’s, except he only had 1 Super Bowl and wasn’t quite as good at scoring touchdowns. At 28 years and counting, I think there’s probably too much fatigue for 1970’s Cowboys in the HOF. But he would be in the top half of HOFers by the standard that the committee has set.

Torry Holt (85) is the last of the eligible WRs who might have a chance. He would slot in between Lynn Swann and James Lofton. He’s part of the group of receivers who played during the passing explosion. He has 7 Pro Bowls, which is HOF level and is one of the 15 finalists for 2017.

Next up is a group of wide receivers who have career scores that would put them in the bottom half of HOFers, but don’t seem to have a lot of momentum:

Gary Clark (80)
Otis Taylor (76)
Rod Smith (74)
Isaac Bruce (71)
Carroll Dale (70)
Andre Rison (67)
Roy Jefferson (66)

There are 13 more WRs who have higher career scores than the lowest-rated HOFer, Charlie Joiner. Of those, the most notable is Sterling Sharpe with a career score of 59 in just 7 seasons. Swann only played 9 seasons, but every other HOFer played at least 11 seasons.

There are 5 retired wide receivers of note who aren’t eligible for the HOF yet.

Randy Moss (98), is a HOF lock, and will be eligible in 2018. He would only grade as the 6th-best HOFer due to his lack of Super Bowls.

Reggie Wayne (89), eligible in 2020. Will he get HOF support being the 3rd factor in the Colts’ passing game after Harrison and Manning? It would similar to the 1970’s Steelers, but they won more Super Bowls. Or will he be the odd man out like Cliff Branch of the 1970’s Raiders?

Hines Ward (78), becomes eligible in 2017, and is a finalist on the 2017 ballot. But I believe he has a lot of support for induction one day.

Andre Johnson (66). His best comp is Cris Carter from the standpoint of accolades and Super Bowls. But Cris Carter scored nearly twice as many touchdowns. When he retired, many said he was a future HOFer. I think it’s going to take him awhile to make it. And there are some guys with bigger numbers, and potential for bigger numbers coming behind him.

Calvin Johnson (65). Only played 9 seasons. He spent much of his career being considered a HOF lock. But the early retirement will probably cost him HOF support.

There are 3 active players who are building HOF resumes:

Steve Smith leads the way with his career score of 71, and is obviously another Football Perspective hero. If he could lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl win this year, it would be huge for his resume and add to his already impressive postseason marks.

Larry Fitzgerald (67) doesn’t have quite the huge AV seasons like Steve Smith. But he’s scored 100+ TDs. Once Moss and Owens get in the HOF, all the 100+ TD guys will be in.

Anquan Boldin (62) doesn’t have the honors of Smith, but almost makes up for it with a Super Bowl win.

There are 3 more active players who may be on track: A.J. Green (29), Julio Jones (33) and Dez Bryant (29) have played 6 or 7 seasons, but have career scores about half as good as what Sterling Sharpe did in 7 seasons. They have a lot of work to do for HOF consideration, but Super Bowl wins can make up ground fast.

Who will make it?

Terrell Owens seems like a lock for 2017. That will probably push Torry Holt back a year where he’ll have to face Randy Moss. That could cost him another year and he’ll still have to compete with Hines Ward. And everybody is going to have to compete with the passing explosion which could make the HOF threshold a moving target.

I think Owens, Moss and Holt make it in soon. Ward, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith and Fitzgerald make it eventually.