[[Update: Mahomes hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark in week 11 against Tampa Bay, and did so with exactly 1,000 completions. He had thrown for 12,782 passing yards, with 105 TDs and 20 INTs. That translates to an amazing 110.9 passer rating. When he threw that 1500th pass, a 9-yard completion to Demarcus Robinson right after the 2-minute warning in the first half, he automatically became the all-time career leader in passer rating. He moved ahead of Deshaun Watson (103.6), who had just moved ahead of Rodgers (103.3) after his great performance on Thanksgiving. Mahomes is now the newest career passer rating king, and will finish the 2020 season — and probably several more — as the all-time leader.]]
To qualify for the career leaderboard in rate statistics, a passer needs to record 1,500 pass attempts.
Aaron Rodgers reached the 1,500 pass attempt threshold on November 28, 2010 in a loss to the Falcons. At the time, his career passer rating was a few hundredths of a point behind Philip Rivers (97.34 to 97.28). As of Christmas, 2010, Rivers still held a narrow lead, but Rodgers passed him (with little fanfare) in week 16. And since week 16 of the 2010 season, Rodgers has been alone atop the passer rating leaderboard.
But in a couple of weeks, he will lose his crown. That’s because Patrick Mahomes, he of the 110.5 career passer rating, is coming up on 1,500 career pass attempts. When he does, he will become the newest passer rating king. The statistic wasn’t first used in the NFL until the 1973 season, but we can still create a historical archive (which is exactly what PFR’s Mike Kania did). The graph below shows the career leader in passer rating after every season, minimum 1,500 NFL attempts, color-coded by team.
Let’s review the 15 men who have finished a season as the career passer rating king. [1]This, of course, excludes Rivers and other players who momentarily stood atop the leaderboard.
In 1945, Sammy Baugh became the first player in NFL history to hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark. This was not a notable mark at the time, of course, but Baugh quickly emerged as the game’s first superstar quarterback. He led his football team to an NFL title as a rookie, and his throwing prowess forever changed the game. His 1945 season was legendary, when he produced one of the greatest seasons in NFL history: a 109.9 passer rating in a league as a whole (including Baugh!) that produced a passer rating of 47.6. Baugh will forever remain one of the greatest players in league history. That said, he only held the passer rating crown from ’45 to ’47.
Baugh’s chief rival had the benefit of playing on more talented teams with more talented coaches; as a result, Luckman often produced equal or better numbers than Baugh. After the 1947 season, Luckman was 6 attempts shy of the 1,500 mark, but already had a sizable lead on Baugh when it came to passer rating. [2]I will note, as funny as it may seem to say, that Luckman was the first guy to benefit from era adjustments. Baugh played from 1937 to 1952; Luckman from ’39 to ’50. From ’39 to … Continue reading Luckman was a phenomenal passer and is underrated when discussing the all-time greats at the position. One reason for that: while he was a great passer, he played at a time when players needed to be more versatile, making him less valuable and held in lower regard than Baugh. But as a pure thrower, the Bears great was a worthy holder of the career passer rating crown, and he did so from 1948 to 1954.
It’s also worth noting that Luckman benefited from the fact that the best quarterback in pro football in the late ’40s wasn’t playing in the NFL. At the end of the 1954 season, Luckman was one of five players with 1,500 career pass attempts in the NFL, and he and Baugh were the only two players with a rating above 70.0. But the young guns were coming: Norm Van Brocklin had a 5.4-point edge in passer rating on Luckman (at 1,236 attempts), and our next man would cross the 1,500 mark the next season.
Graham played in the AAFC from ’46 to ’49, which was a legitimate rival league to the NFL. And nobody dominated the AAFC — or eventually, the NFL — quite like Graham. He was a tremendous runner (which is ignored in passer rating) and a deadly efficient passer. For purposes of this article, I am discarding his time in the AAFC, as the NFL does not officially recognize those numbers. [3]If we include Graham’s time in the AAFC (hat tip to Mike Kania at PFR), he would have taken the crown from Luckman in 1951 with a remarkable 90.3 rating. And while he would lose the title to … Continue reading So it was not until 1955, the last season of his career, when Graham first hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark. Van Brocklin (who had a better passer rating than Graham before ’55) crossed that threshold in the final game of the season, too, but after 1955, Graham’s passer rating was 78.2, NVB’s 77.1, and Luckman was at 75.0. [4]Include his four years in the AAFC, and Graham’s career passer rating was an unfathomable 84.6.
Graham would hold this mark for only a few years: by the end of the 1959 season, it was obvious he would lose his title soon.
The Mahomes of his era, Unitas quickly established himself as the best player in pro football. By the age of 25, he already had won an MVP award and an NFL championship. In the final game of the 1960 season, Unitas crossed the 1,500 threshold and became the all-time leader in (the yet to be created) passer rating: he was at 83.9 to Graham’s 78.2 mark. Unitas would continue to hold the title for most of the decade, as his strong start was able to hold him through a few relatively down years. Following the 1967 season, Unitas was still boasting an all-time best passer rating of 82.9, but a pair of contemporaries were hot on his heels. And this doesn’t even include Len Dawson, who would post a higher passer rating but did so in the AFL. [5]Dawson, once he hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark, passed Unitas in 1966. Following that season, he had a career passer rating of 87.6 to Unitas’s 82.9 rating. Unitas missed nearly all of 1968 due to injury — and he threw four interceptions on just 32 passes when he did play — which narrowed the gap even closer. Finally, by 1969, there was a new king.
Unlike most of the players on this list, Starr’s career started poorly. As of 1959, while Unitas and his Colts were winning a second straight title, Starr looked like he should be benched. But Vince Lombardi and an influx of talent would turn around his career. The great quarterback would of course lead the Packers to five titles, as an efficient passer working with a dominant ground game and the game’s best defense. Starr also took a lot of sacks, which are ignored by passer rating (and many historians).
Of course, when he did pass, the results were usually very good. He was easily the most efficient passer in the NFL during the 1960s (again, ignoring sacks), and his 1966 MVP campaign was legendary as he posted a 105.0 passer rating and won a fourth title. That was nearly enough to catch Unitas, although it would take Starr until 1969 before he finally did it. The graph below shows the battle between the two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, identifying both players’ career passer ratings at the end of each season from 1956 to 1973:
Starr passed him for good in ’69, but unfortunately for him, there was another contemporary right on his heels. Starr would only hold the crown for one year.
Universally hailed as the best pure passer of his era, Jurgensen has largely been forgotten by the modern audience. He sat behind Norm Van Brocklin during the first few years of his career with the Eagles, and then had a breakout season in 1961 in Philadelphia. He would only throw 1,107 career passes with the Eagles before being traded to Washington before the 1964 season. At the time, the Eagles were looking to rebuild and wanted to move on from the 29-year-old passer; that moved turned out to be a big mistake. Jurgensen continued his success in D.C., and battled [6]In the historical fiction sense. Unitas and Starr for the career passer rating crown in the late ’60s. After the ’67 season, Unitas was still the king and Jurgensen ranked 2nd; after ’68, the leaderboard read Unitas-Starr-Jurgensen; after ’69, Starr ranked first, with Jurgensen moving ahead of Unitas for second place; finally, after an excellent 1970 season, Jurgensen ranked first in career passer rating.
This graph shows the chase between the three players, with their career passer ratings after each season. All three were born in ’33 or ’34 and entered the league in ’56 or ’57, making them true contemporaries. [7]Note that Jurgensen did pass Unitas early on, but that was well before he hit the 1,500-attempt mark.
Jurgensen would hold the mark for the first half of the 1970s. At the end of the 1975 season, Jurgensen was the actual all-time [8]Well, depending on your view of the AFL and Len Dawson. passer rating king: the formula was actually first used in 1973, so we are now in the passer rating era of pro football. But the writing was on the wall that his reign would soon end: our next quarterback was at 1,466 pass attempts, and held a lead in career passer rating, 85.5 to 82.6.
The Bengals passer would become the NFL’s all-time passer rating king in 1976 at the age of 27. He had a very efficient style playing in the Paleolithic version of the West Coast Offense for legendary coaches: for his era, he produced a high completion percentage and a low interception rate. But after the 1976 season, while Anderson would now be king, he could probably sense it would not be a long reign: our next player had a better passer rating on 1,283 pass attempts, was on one of the most talented teams in the NFL, and was also in the prime of his career.
The Raiders great turned 32 in 1977, and had produced outstanding years in 1974 and 1976 (when he produced the second best single-season passer rating of the decade). By the end of the ’77 season, Stabler had a career passer rating of 83.9, and Anderson was now in the middle part of his career where the Bengals offense was devoid of talent. Stabler, however, would have a short peak, and playing most of his career in the dead ball era would not help his career numbers. He had a terrible season in 1978, which saw his career passer rating dip below Jurgensen. Stabler would never again be the career king.
Jurgensen (2nd reign)
With Anderson and Stabler declining, Jurgensen regained the career passer rating crown after the 1978 season. Now retired, Jurgensen’s 82.6 mark was better than anything the young stars from the dead ball era could muster. But a few players were hot on his heels: after ’78, Colts star Bert Jones was at 81.1, Roger Staubach was at 81.8, and Bob Griese was at 82.5. As it turns out, Captain Comeback would be the one to take the title from his one-time NFC East rival.
In 1979, Staubach led the NFL in passer rating, which gave him the leg up on his peers as well as Jurgensen. Staubach retired after this season, with a career passer rating of 83.4. And Griese, Stabler, and Jones were too old (or injured) to to take advantage of the NFL rules changes to serious challenge the Cowboys great. As a result, Staubach would be the career passer rating king after the ’79, ’80, ’81, and ’82 seasons. In 1983, however, his replacement in Dallas, would surpass him: Danny White became the all-time NFL passer rating king on November 6th, 1983 once he hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark with an 84.0 passer rating. However, we now enter the beginning of the modern era, where passer ratings would steadily rise. So despite moving ahead of his legendary teammate, White would never finish a season as the passer rating king.
After the 1982 season, Joe Montana stood at 1,130 career pass attempts, but already had a remarkable 88.0 career passer rating. He would have a Pro Bowl season in 1983, and easily became the NFL’s all-time leader in career passer rating. That happened when he threw his 1,500th pass on November 20th, 1983. Montana finished the season with a 90.0 passer rating, and ranked #1 all-time with ratings of 92.7 and 92.4 after the ’84 and ’85 seasons.
Montana was the first quarterback to break the 90 point barrier, but his hold on the crown would not be very safe. Because as every NFL veteran knows, there is always a younger player hot on your heels.
Buoyed by his dominant 1984 season, Marino looked primed to take Montana’s spot atop the passer rating leaderboard. Following the 1985 season, Marino had a 96.4 passer rating on 1,427 pass attempts; Montana was at 92.4, and among players with 1,200 attempts, Staubach was third at 83.4. In 1986, Marino had another great year, and passed Montana as the game’s all-time leader in passer rating.
He remained the king after the 1987 season, but the gap was closing, and Montana was now operating with a performance enhancer in the form of Jerry Rice. And Marino’s legendary sack rate would be of no help when it came to the passer rating crown.
Montana (2nd reign)
Montana outplayed the younger Marino in the second half of the ’80s, and retook the top spot in 1988. What’s more, there were no immediate threats to Montana, as long as he could stay above Marino. And that’s exactly what he did. At the end of the ’88, ’89, ’90, ’91, ’92, and ’93 seasons, Montana was the game’s all-time leader in career passer rating. After the 1993 season, Montana and the 49ers parted ways, but the crown would stay in San Francisco.
Like Starr, Young had a rough start to his career, posting a 63.1 passer rating during his time with the hapless Bucs. He played sparingly during his first five seasons in San Francisco, and then had his first full year as a starter in 1992. At the end of ’92, he had 1,506 pass attempts and a career passer rating of 90.4; unfortunately for him, Joe Montana was still at 93.5. Young had another magnificent season in ’93 (Montana’s first year in Kansas City) to close the gap: Montana stood at 93.1 and Young 93.0 after that year. But in 1994, Young eliminated any questions: he posted the best single-season passer rating in NFL history, and easily moved into first place on the career list. He passed Montana and never looked back, winning passer rating titles again in ’96 and ’97. Young often played like the perfect quarterback, blessed with a talented offense and his own mix of remarkable efficiency. Given how prowess and the era of rising passer ratings, it seemed like Young would be cemented atop the career list for a long time. But an unpredictable confluence of events was happening as Young’s career was ending.
Like Mahomes, Warner had a blistering start to his career. It helped that like Mahomes, Warner entered an offense with a ton of talent and an offensive genius at the controls; it also helped that he didn’t play in the NFL during his younger years, which allowed him to basically begin his march in the prime of his career. Warner produced ridiculous numbers right away, with similar numbers from ’99 to ’01 that Mahomes has been producing over the last three seasons. He became the all-time leader in passer rating as soon as he threw his 1,500th pass, even though he had already begun the decline phase of his career. He had enough of a cushion that he held on to the crown for a couple of seasons, before dipping below Young; the revival phase of Warner’s career was great, but not enough to see him leapfrog Young ever again.
Young (2nd reign)
The 49ers legend’s game, like Rodgers, was tailor-made for the passer rating system: incredibly accurate, great at throwing touchdowns and avoiding interceptions, and preferring to take a sack over a risky throw. Young would have had a remarkable 16-year run — from 1994 to 2009 — as the all-time leader in passer rating, if not for the Cinderella story in St. Louis. Young remains the all-time career leader in era-adjusted passer rating among players who (1) began their career after 1950 and (2) without including AFL stats. But as NFL passer ratings began to really rise after 2004, the modern Steve Young would eventually take the title. As a technical matter, on November 7th, 2010, Philip Rivers was the one who nudged Young out of first place. It was Rivers, not Young, who Rodgers would pass for first place. [9]As of the end of the ’09 season, Young was the leader at 96.8, but it was obvious his reign was ending soon. When Rodgers hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark, he owned a career passer rating of … Continue reading
At the end of the 2009 season, Steve Young was still the NFL’s all-time leader in career passer rating. Young had been the career leader in passer rating for most of the previous 16 years, with Kurt Warner briefly passing him (once he hit the minimum attempts threshold) in ’02 and ’03 before falling below the mark in ’04. So while Young has held the title of passer rating king for the longest, Rodgers’s 10-year reign as the passer rating king is the longest streak for any player in NFL history. From December 2010 through November 2020, the Packers great stood alone.
After a strong finish to the ’10 season that saw him take the crown, followed by a monster 2011, Rodgers created a huge gap between himself and second place in ’11, ’12, and ’13. A historic 2014 campaign widened the gap until Russell Wilson came along. The Seahawks young quarterback didn’t qualify for the passer rating crown for a few years, but once he did, he became Rodgers’s closest competitor.
In fact, after week 6 of the 2020 season, the gap had been almost erased: Rodgers, after maybe the worst game of his career against Tampa Bay, saw his career passer rating drop to 102.6. Wilson, off to a blazing start to the 2020 season, had seen his career passer rating rise to 102.4. The gap has widened again slightly as Wilson struggled the past few weeks, but alas, the discussion isn’t going to matter for very long.
Mahomes (110.5 passer rating) will take the crown as soon as he throws another 72 pass attempts. He will almost certainly end the 2020 season as the career leader in passer rating. Rodgers (103.1) and Wilson (101.9) are pretty far behind Mahomes right now, and so Deshaun Watson may actually be the biggest short-term threat. Watson, like Mahomes, is early enough in his career that his career passer rating is subject to significant fluctuation, and Watson is having a brilliant season; still, he is more than 8 points behind Mahomes for now. Watson just hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark today, and now has a career passer rating of 102.2.
So while it hasn’t happened yet, I am comfortable now calling it: Patrick Mahomes is going to be the next passer rating king, likely in week 12 or week 13 of this season. It will be reminscent of the passing of the torch to Montana, when the 49ers legend finished the 1983 season with a passer rating 6.6 points higher than the 1982 leader. That’s the largest single-season increase among the career passer rating leaders, but if Mahomes can keep his passer rating at 109.8 or better at the end of this season, he will also break that mark. All hail the new king.
References
| ↑1 | This, of course, excludes Rivers and other players who momentarily stood atop the leaderboard. |
|---|---|
| ↑2 | I will note, as funny as it may seem to say, that Luckman was the first guy to benefit from era adjustments. Baugh played from 1937 to 1952; Luckman from ’39 to ’50. From ’39 to ’50, Baugh had the slightly higher passer rating, but from ’37 to ’50, Luckman had the better passer rating. |
| ↑3 | If we include Graham’s time in the AAFC (hat tip to Mike Kania at PFR), he would have taken the crown from Luckman in 1951 with a remarkable 90.3 rating. And while he would lose the title to Len Dawson for a couple of years, Graham was *still* the career leader in passer rating after the 1982 season if you include his AAFC stats. |
| ↑4 | Include his four years in the AAFC, and Graham’s career passer rating was an unfathomable 84.6. |
| ↑5 | Dawson, once he hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark, passed Unitas in 1966. Following that season, he had a career passer rating of 87.6 to Unitas’s 82.9 rating. |
| ↑6 | In the historical fiction sense. |
| ↑7 | Note that Jurgensen did pass Unitas early on, but that was well before he hit the 1,500-attempt mark. |
| ↑8 | Well, depending on your view of the AFL and Len Dawson. |
| ↑9 | As of the end of the ’09 season, Young was the leader at 96.8, but it was obvious his reign was ending soon. When Rodgers hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark, he owned a career passer rating of 97.3, just a hair ahead of Young but a few hundredths of a point behind Philip Rivers (97.34 to 97.28). |