≡ Menu

How Have Previous Michael Thomases Fared?

Five years ago, I asked two questions: how often does the first receiver selected in the Draft turn out to be the best rookie receiver? And how often does the best rookie receiver turn out to be the best receiver from his draft? Yesterday, we updated that post to answer the first question. Today, we look at the second one, and that makes Saints star Michael Thomas (who had 1,137 receiving yards as a rookie in 2016) the focus of this post.

How likely is it that Thomas will turn out to be the best receiver from his class? Thomas has some competition, but though he was farther ahead of the pack than the average top receiver:

Drafted Players Table
Misc Misc Appr Rece Rece Rece
Rnd Pick Tm Player Pos Age To AP1 PB St CarAV G Rec Yds
TD College/Univ
2 47 NOR Michael Thomas WR 23 2016 0 0 1 10 15 92 1137 9 Ohio St. College Stats
2 40 NYG Sterling Shepard WR 22 2016 0 0 1 5 16 65 683 8 Oklahoma College Stats
1 21 HOU Will Fuller WR 22 2016 0 0 1 6 14 47 635 2 Notre Dame College Stats
2 55 CIN Tyler Boyd WR 21 2016 0 0 0 5 16 54 603 1 Pittsburgh College Stats
5 165 KAN Tyreek Hill WR 22 2016 1 1 0 10 16 61 593 6 West Alabama
5 140 TEN Tajae Sharpe WR 21 2016 0 0 1 5 16 41 522 2 Massachusetts College Stats
1 15 CLE Corey Coleman WR 22 2016 0 0 1 3 10 33 413 3 Baylor College Stats
4 112 NWE Malcolm Mitchell WR 23 2016 0 0 0 4 14 32 401 4 Georgia College Stats

So how optimistic should we be that Thomas will in fact finish as the top receiver from this class? You may be surprised to learn that from 1999 to 2013, the top rookie receiver (as measured by receiving yards) *never* finished as the top receiver from his class (as measured by receiving yards). Bookmarking those years? Randy Moss in 1998, and Odell Beckham in 2014. There are a few cases where the top rookie had a great career (Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, and A.J. Green stand out) but ultimately was bested (to date, in the case of Green) by another star, but also a large number of guys who didn’t quite live up to their potential after year one.

YearTop RookieTeamTeamCareer RkCareer LeaderSame?Rk As Rookie
2016Michael ThomasnorNOR1Michael ThomasSame1
2015Amari CooperraiOAK1Amari CooperSame1
2014Odell BeckhamnygNYG1Odell BeckhamSame1
2013Keenan AllensdgSDG4DeAndre HopkinsDiff2
2012Justin BlackmonjaxJAX13T.Y. HiltonDiff2
2011A.J. GreencinCIN2Julio JonesDiff2
2010Mike WilliamstamTAM8Antonio BrownDiff14
2009Hakeem NicksnygNYG4Mike WallaceDiff4
2008Eddie RoyaldenDEN5DeSean JacksonDiff2
2007Dwayne BowekanKAN2Calvin JohnsonDiff2
2006Marques ColstonnorNOR2Brandon MarshallDiff5
2005Reggie BrownphiPHI5Roddy WhiteDiff4
2004Michael ClaytontamTAM9Larry FitzgeraldDiff4
2003Anquan BoldincrdARI2Andre JohnsonDiff2
2002Antonio BryantdalDAL3Deion BranchDiff5
2001Chris ChambersmiaMIA5Steve SmithDiff13
2000Darrell JacksonseaSEA3Laveranues ColesDiff5
1999Kevin JohnsoncleCLE7Torry HoltDiff2
1998Randy MossminMIN1Randy MossSame1
1997Rae CarruthcarCAR11Derrick MasonDiff4
1996Terry GlennnweNWE7Terrell OwensDiff6
1995Joey GallowayseaSEA1Joey GallowaySame1
1994Darnay ScottcinCIN4Isaac BruceDiff7
1993Horace CopelandtamTAM9Curtis ConwayDiff6
1992Courtney HawkinstamTAM4Jimmy SmithDiff36
1991Lawrence DawseytamTAM13Keenan McCardellDiff20
1990Ricky ProehlcrdPHO1Ricky ProehlSame1
1989Shawn CollinsatlATL8Andre RisonDiff2
1988Sterling SharpegnbGNB4Tim BrownDiff2
1987Ricky NattieldenDEN10Mark CarrierDiff2
1986Bill BrookscltIND3Ernest GivinsDiff2
1985Eddie BrowncinCIN5Jerry RiceDiff2
1984Louis LippspitPIT2Irving FryarDiff9
1983Willie GaultchiCHI4Henry EllardDiff6
1982Lindsay ScottnorNOR9Mark DuperDiff31
1981Cris CollinsworthcinCIN1Cris CollinsworthSame1
1980Art MonkwasWAS1Art MonkSame1
1979Jerry ButlerbufBUF4Drew HillDiff8
1978John JeffersonsdgSDG3James LoftonDiff2
1977Wesley WalkernyjNYJ2Stanley MorganDiff2
1976Sammy WhiteminMIN4Steve LargentDiff2
1975Rick UpchurchdenDEN3Freddie SolomonDiff2
1974Nat MooremiaMIA2John StallworthDiff7
1973Isaac CurtiscinCIN1Isaac CurtisSame1
1972Ahmad RashadcrdSTL2Cliff BranchDiff8
1971Randy VatahanweNWE6Harold CarmichaelDiff6
1970Ron ShanklinpitPIT2Ken BurroughDiff6

You might be surprised to see that the median rank of these rookie receivers is just to finish fourth in their class. In recent years, we’ve seen Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams, Eddie Royal, and Tampa Bay’s Michael Clayton excel as rookies but have disappointing careers. Excluding the players from 2014, 2015, and 2016, the only receivers since 1982 to finish 1st as both a rookie and overall were Proehl, Galloway, and Moss.  Do you think there’s something there, or is that a fluke?

Another interesting: other than Antonio Brown, none of the receivers who wound up as the top receiver in their class really struggled as a rookie. Since 2002, Brown is the only one who didn’t rank in the top five.

{ 4 comments }