Inexperienced Receiving Games

by Chase Stuart on August 31, 2017

in Checkdowns, History, Receiving, Statgeekery

The 2008 Giants were very experienced; the 2009 Giants were not.

In ’08, New York had Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress as the team’s starting receivers; Toomer retired after the year, while Burress shot himself in a nightclub late in the ’08 season and missed all of the ’09 and ’10 seasons.

The top 7 receivers on the ’09 Giants were the other Steve Smith (24 years old in ’09), Mario Manningham (23), Hakeem Nicks (21), Kevin Boss (25), Ahmad Bradshaw (23), Domenik Hixon (25), and Brandon Jacobs (27). Entering the 2009 season, Smith had 637 career receiving yards, Manningham had 26, Nicks had 0, Boss had 502, Bradshaw had 54, Hixon had 601, and Jacobs had 359. Derek Hagan, who finished 8th on the ’09 Giants with 101 receiving yards, was the most accomplished receiver entering the year by virtue of his 645 career receiving yards entering 2009.

On a weighted average, that means the 2009 Giants receiving group entered the year with just 318 career receiving yards (by reference, the 2008 Giants were at 2,608). What do I mean by weighted average? Well, Smith had 28.7% of the 2009 Giants receiving yards, and he had 637 career receiving yards prior to 2009; therefore, his 637 receives 28.7% of the team weight. On the other hand, Manningham and Nicks had, together, 38% of the Giants receiving yards in 2009, and they had, together, just 26 career receiving yards entering 2009. The table below shows the full calculation, with the result equaling a weighted average of 318 career receiving yards.

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Receiver	Tm	Year	Tm Rec Yd	Rec Yd	% of TmRecYd	Car Rec Yd	Wtd Avg
Steve Smith	NYG	2009	4246	1220	28.7%	637	183
Mario Manningham	NYG	2009	4246	822	19.4%	26	5
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	2009	4246	790	18.6%	0	0
Kevin Boss	NYG	2009	4246	567	13.4%	502	67
Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	2009	4246	207	4.9%	54	3
Domenik Hixon	NYG	2009	4246	187	4.4%	601	26
Brandon Jacobs	NYG	2009	4246	184	4.3%	359	16
Derek Hagan	NYG	2009	4246	101	2.4%	645	15
Travis Beckum	NYG	2009	4246	55	1.3%	0	0
Darcy Johnson	NYG	2009	4246	32	0.8%	46	0
Madison Hedgecock	NYG	2009	4246	23	0.5%	202	1
Sinorice Moss	NYG	2009	4246	18	0.4%	403	2
Ramses Barden	NYG	2009	4246	16	0.4%	0	0
Danny Ware	NYG	2009	4246	15	0.4%	0	0
Bear Pascoe	NYG	2009	4246	9	0.2%	0	0
Avg/Total			4246	4246	100%		318

Last year, just three teams saw their receiving group bring a weighted average of less than 1,000 career receiving yards to the table: the Browns, Vikings, and Saints. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (Larry Fitzgerald) and Ravens (Steve Smith, Mike Wallace) were both over 4,000 yards. The table below shows all passing attacks since 1990, and how experienced or inexperienced each group was entering the season. The 2009 Giants are the most inexperienced group, which came after a run of very experienced teams (type “NYG” into the search box to see all Giants teams). You won’t be surprised to see the most experience teams (the table is fully sortable).

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Rk	Year	Team	Wtd Avg	Tm Win%
1	2009	NYG	318	0.5
2	2011	CIN	328	0.5625
3	2000	CLE	386	0.1875
4	2002	BAL	394	0.4375
5	1993	NWE	399	0.3125
6	1993	CIN	429	0.1875
7	1992	PIT	434	0.6875
8	2002	WAS	457	0.4375
9	2003	HOU	466	0.3125
10	2008	MIA	469	0.6875

Showing 1 to 10 of 833 entries

What stands out to you? The New York Jets may wind up as the least experienced team of 2017. Last year’s Jets team was very experienced, but this year? Matt Forte (4,379) and Bilal Powell (1,287) are the only players with more than 1,000 career receiving yards: Forte in particularly would likely provide a reasonable floor even if he only receives 5% of the team’s total passing yards. But the Jets top wide receivers are all rookies or second-year players: Robby Anderson (587 career yards, all last year), rookie ArDarius Stewart, Charone Peake (186 career yards, all last year), and Jalin Marshall (162 career yards, all last year). At tight end, it’s veteran Austin Seferian-Jenkins (713 yards in three seasons) and rookie Jordan Leggett. It may be a very long season in New York.

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