Jameis Winston: Great At Picking Up First Downs and Throwing Interceptions

by Chase Stuart on October 29, 2018

in Checkdowns

Jameis Winston entered the NFL as a 21-year-old in 2015. Now, midway through his fourth season, Winston still has a number of rookie struggles. He currently has a 6.8% interception rate in 2018, bringing his career interception rate up to 3.2%. Among the 39 passers with 500 attempts since 2015, Winston has the worst interception rate in the NFL.

On the other hand, interceptions are not a very sticky statistic, and a pretty poor way of evaluating quarterback play. Winston is an aggressive passer who has played on bad teams, so that tends to lead to interceptions. And young quarterbacks — Winston is still just 24 — sometimes struggle with interceptions, especially on bad teams.

Meanwhile, Winston has been downright remarkable at picking up first downs. Including sacks, Winston has picked up a first down on 37.3% of his dropbacks since entering the league; that’s the 2nd-best rate in the NFL over that span. Last year, he led the league in percentage of pass attempts that went for a first down; this year he’s been even better (although he only ranks 3rd). Including sacks, he has still picked up a first down on 40% of his dropbacks.

Since 2015, Winston ranks 1st in INT rate and 2nd in Passing First Down rate. No other player ranks in the top 9 in both, although Roethlisberger, Newton, and Fitzpatrick rank in the top 12 in both stats.

Search:

Player	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	1D	1D Rate%	1D Rate Rk	INT %	INT Rk	ANY/A	ANY/A Rk
Matt Ryan	1938	15957	94	37	111	-732	779	38%	1	1.9%	27	7.54	3
Jameis Winston	1694	12840	75	54	109	-716	673	37.3%	2	3.2%	1	6.21	19
Carson Palmer	1402	10872	70	32	87	-591	549	36.9%	3	2.3%	18	6.88	9
Drew Brees	2078	16409	106	35	87	-627	795	36.7%	4	1.7%	31	7.54	2
Tom Brady	1887	14770	112	24	96	-566	720	36.3%	5	1.3%	38	7.75	1
Ben Roethlisberger	1830	14129	90	49	68	-486	677	35.7%	6	2.7%	11	6.97	7
Philip Rivers	2033	15701	107	47	103	-658	754	35.3%	7	2.3%	16	7.05	4
Kirk Cousins	2030	15722	97	40	113	-854	756	35.3%	8	2%	24	7	5
Matthew Stafford	2004	14940	99	39	141	-869	756	35.2%	9	1.9%	25	6.66	12
Ryan Fitzpatrick	1272	9267	64	40	53	-270	459	34.6%	10	3.1%	2	6.4	16
Cam Newton	1736	12289	89	44	114	-867	632	34.2%	11	2.5%	12	6.07	21
Jared Goff	936	7308	50	19	69	-496	343	34.1%	12	2%	22	6.92	8
Andy Dalton	1735	12825	85	35	116	-774	628	33.9%	13	2%	23	6.58	13
Russell Wilson	1763	13770	105	34	149	-999	644	33.7%	14	1.9%	26	6.98	6
Dak Prescott	1151	8367	53	21	80	-470	413	33.5%	15	1.8%	29	6.51	15
Andrew Luck	1180	8294	69	33	66	-434	418	33.5%	16	2.8%	6	6.22	18
Blake Bortles	2047	14038	89	55	126	-736	723	33.3%	17	2.7%	10	5.8	30
Carson Wentz	1272	8858	62	23	82	-523	448	33.1%	18	1.8%	30	6.31	17
Alex Smith	1683	12526	69	22	120	-665	596	33.1%	19	1.3%	36	6.79	10
Marcus Mariota	1424	10520	61	39	108	-695	505	33%	20	2.7%	8	6.06	22
Case Keenum	1217	8684	45	29	71	-493	421	32.7%	21	2.4%	13	6.05	23
Brian Hoyer	780	5338	29	11	45	-309	269	32.6%	22	1.4%	33	6.2	20
Derek Carr	1909	13470	92	40	85	-518	643	32.2%	23	2.1%	21	6.52	14
Aaron Rodgers	1704	12235	100	22	125	-903	586	32%	24	1.3%	37	6.75	11
Jay Cutler	1049	7384	44	30	66	-405	357	32%	25	2.9%	5	5.84	29
Sam Bradford	1206	8378	44	23	76	-562	403	31.4%	26	1.9%	28	5.98	26
Ryan Tannehill	1101	8170	51	30	84	-684	372	31.4%	27	2.7%	9	6.04	24
Josh McCown	855	6142	36	19	80	-546	289	30.9%	28	2.2%	20	5.84	28
Eli Manning	2102	14280	87	49	110	-735	680	30.7%	29	2.3%	14	5.91	27
Mitch Trubisky	568	3980	22	13	47	-292	186	30.2%	30	2.3%	17	5.76	31
Brock Osweiler	1074	6922	36	30	66	-476	342	30%	31	2.8%	7	5.1	36
Trevor Siemian	836	5701	30	24	64	-412	269	29.9%	32	2.9%	4	5.34	33
Tyrod Taylor	1320	9293	53	18	136	-757	431	29.6%	33	1.4%	34	6.03	25
Joe Flacco	1979	12532	64	46	90	-721	608	29.4%	34	2.3%	15	5.33	34
Blaine Gabbert	658	4284	22	20	61	-369	206	28.7%	35	3%	3	4.81	38
Jacoby Brissett	525	3498	13	7	57	-347	164	28.2%	36	1.3%	35	5.32	35
Colin Kaepernick	575	3856	22	9	64	-370	175	27.4%	37	1.6%	32	5.51	32
Nick Foles	575	3462	16	13	27	-206	149	24.8%	38	2.3%	19	4.97	37

So, is Winston a raw prospect with a ton of potential, or an interception-prone quarterback who happens to have been good at picking up first downs? Is he a young player who has shown signs of becoming an All-Pro, or a guy who after 4 years has shown that he’s always going to be mistake-prone?

Winston’s on-the-field stock (to say nothing of his off-the-field stock) has arguably never been lower than today, after yesterday’s 4-INT performance.

Where do you stand on Winston?

Tagged as: Jameis Winston

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