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Jared Goff Is The Exception

Whether it’s Mitchell Trubisky or Deshone Kizer or well, any rookie quarterback in the foreseeable future that underwhelms, the new theory for optimism is “Well look at how lost Jared Goff was as a rookie!” There is no doubt that Goff was terrible as a rookie and it’s equally true that he was excellent as a sophomore. Goff pulled off a remarkable worst-to-first campaign, ranking last in ANY/A in 2016 and then first in ANY/A in 2017. He increased his ANY/A average by 4.90, the greatest year-over-year increase in NFL history. That is why he is the exception.

I looked at all quarterbacks who (1) were 24 or younger during their rookie season, (2) threw at least 150 passes as a rookie, (3) threw at least 150 passes in their second year, and (4) entered the league in 1969 (when we first have sack data) or later. This naturally biases results in favor of second-year passers who improve, as quarterbacks who struggle as a rookie and then struggle in year two may not hit the 150-pass attempt threshold. Regardless, Goff’s improvement was truly remarkable. He finished 3.39 below league average in ANY/A in 2016 and then 1.82 above ANY/A in 2017. The graph below shows all passers who met the four criteria above. On the X-Axis, their Relative ANY/A as a rookies; on the Y-Axis, their Relative ANY/A as second-year players. A quarterback who is bad as a rookie and good as a sophomore would therefore be on the upper left quadrant of the chart, which is precisely where Goff (shaded in red) sits:

You might be able to guess the other big outlier on the chart, sitting at -0.80, 3.31. That’s Nick Foles.

And while Goff may be a promising data point for fans of Kizer or Trubisky, don’t forget that
Akili Smith, Steve Fuller, and Blaine Gabbert struggled as rookies, too — and never turned it around. There are examples on both sides — Aikman, Bradshaw, McNabb — but expecting a Goff-like improvement is absurd.

The table below shows the full set of quarterbacks shown above.

QuarterbackRook YearRk TmRk AgeRk RANY/AYr2 RANY/ADiff
Alex Smith2005sfo21-4.23-0.583.65
Jared Goff2016ram22-3.391.825.21
Terry Bradshaw1970pit22-3.30-0.872.43
Richard Todd1976nyj23-3.240.313.56
Donovan McNabb1999phi23-2.77-0.422.35
Akili Smith1999cin24-2.48-2.390.08
Eli Manning2004nyg23-2.420.292.7
Blake Bortles2014jax22-2.33-0.182.15
Steve Fuller1979kan22-2.23-0.631.6
Blaine Gabbert2011jax22-2.22-1.221
Troy Aikman1989dal23-2.15-1.410.75
David Carr2002htx23-2.11-0.311.8
Josh Freeman2009tam21-1.961.213.17
Jack Trudeau1986clt24-1.900.482.39
Geno Smith2013nyj23-1.70-1.010.7
Joe Ferguson1973buf23-1.680.081.76
John Elway1983den23-1.670.261.93
Christian Ponder2011min23-1.65-0.940.71
Mark Sanchez2009nyj23-1.57-0.351.23
Neil Lomax1981crd22-1.57-0.680.89
Charlie Frye2005cle24-1.46-1.66-0.2
Kyle Boller2003rav22-1.46-1.47-0.01
Archie Manning1971nor22-1.41-0.520.89
Joey Harrington2002det24-1.37-1.340.03
Dan Pastorini1971oti22-1.36-1.300.06
Dan Fouts1973sdg22-1.330.942.27
Derek Carr2014rai23-1.320.051.37
Billy Joe Tolliver1989sdg23-1.31-0.570.74
David Woodley1980mia22-1.27-0.041.23
Rick Mirer1993sea23-1.22-0.700.53
Tim Couch1999cle22-1.22-0.141.08
Phil Simms1979nyg24-1.14-1.37-0.22
Carson Wentz2016phi24-1.121.532.65
Jeff George1990clt23-1.07-1.32-0.26
Kerry Collins1995car23-1.050.661.71
Jim Zorn1976sea23-1.050.691.73
Scott Hunter1971gnb24-1.03-0.130.91
Colt McCoy2010cle23-1.00-1.16-0.16
Sam Bradford2010ram23-1.00-1.41-0.41
Steve Walsh1989dal23-0.97-0.700.28
Quincy Carter2001dal24-0.93-0.700.23
Cade McNown1999chi22-0.91-1.19-0.29
Mike Glennon2013tam24-0.90-0.400.5
Trent Edwards2007buf24-0.870.161.03
Vince Young2006oti23-0.86-1.08-0.22
Vinny Testaverde1987tam24-0.83-1.75-0.92
Mike Pagel1982clt22-0.80-0.790.02
Nick Foles2012phi23-0.803.314.11
Jake Plummer1997crd23-0.75-0.450.3
Ryan Tannehill2012mia24-0.70-0.87-0.17
Rodney Peete1989det23-0.690.421.11
Teddy Bridgewater2014min22-0.67-0.560.11
Tony Banks1996ram23-0.66-0.200.46
Drew Bledsoe1993nwe21-0.57-0.190.39
Peyton Manning1998clt22-0.471.882.35
Zach Mettenberger2014oti23-0.46-2.90-2.45
Joe Flacco2008rav23-0.410.470.88
Patrick Ramsey2002was23-0.34-0.200.14
Andrew Luck2012clt23-0.280.190.47
Andy Dalton2011cin24-0.25-0.25-0.01
Dennis Shaw1970buf23-0.23-2.12-1.88
Marcus Mariota2015oti22-0.160.921.09
Steve Grogan1975nwe22-0.05-0.29-0.24
Bernie Kosar1985cle220.011.131.12
Byron Leftwich2003jax230.030.110.08
Jameis Winston2015tam210.17-0.23-0.41
Jim McMahon1982chi230.18-0.33-0.51
Jim Plunkett1971nwe240.19-2.13-2.32
Charlie Batch1998det240.300.430.13
Cam Newton2011car220.340.720.37
Doug Williams1978tam230.38-0.47-0.85
Russell Wilson2012sea241.071.220.15
Ben Roethlisberger2004pit221.302.190.89
Matt Ryan2008atl231.30-0.04-1.35
Robert Griffin2012was221.53-0.39-1.92
Dak Prescott2016dal231.64-0.17-1.81
Dan Marino1983mia222.393.941.55
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