Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones finished another magnificent season in 2018, and turned 30 years old yesterday. He now has over 10,000 career yards, and the most receiving yards of any player before turning 30 years old. Does that mean he might one day break the career receiving yards mark held by Jerry Rice?

The answer, of course, is probably not.  Or more like, almost certainly not. Many have tried, and none have come all that close.  Jones has leapfrogged Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Randy Moss — the three leaders in receiving yards through age 27 — but those three stars also serve as a reminder of how difficult it is to maintain greatness into your mid 30s.

The graph below shows the career receiving yards by Rice and Jones through Age X, with each age shown on the X-Axis, and career receiving yards through that age on the Y-Axis.  As you can see, Jones has a slight lead, and he’s had it for, well, his whole career (since Rice’s first season was at age 23, while Jones’s first year was at age 22):

For most players, comparing them at the same age is useful, but not so for Rice. It makes more sense to compare player to Rice by seasons rather than age, since Rice was so good for so long into his career (and started at an older age). And if you compare them through 8 seasons, the graph looks a lot closer:

I think it makes more sense to compare Jones from ages 22 to 29 to Rice from 23 to 30 than Rice from 22 to 29, considering how good Rice was later in his career. After all, he is the record holder for receiving yards at ages 32, 33, 36, 39, 40, 41, and 42.  By way of comparison, the leaders in the 2018 NFL season at ages 32, 33, and 36 (let’s just forget 39 through 42, the “lol” years) were Julian Edelman with 850, Jordy Nelson with 739, and well, nobody at age 36.  Those three years, Rice had 1,499, 1848, and 1,157, respectively.

Even with a one year edge on Rice, Jones doesn’t really have much of a chance to catch him.  Jones needs 12,165 more receiving yards in his career to break Rice’s mark.  As it stands, the career leader in receiving yards after turning 30, ignoring Rice, is Tim Brown with 8,858 (Rice had nearly 5,000 more yards, with 13,823). Even if we spot Jones an extra age 29 season — i.e., look at the players with the most receiving yards from age 29+ — that only gets Brown to  10,200 yards.  If we let Jones repeat his age 28 and 29 seasons, would he have a chance?  Well, the leader in receiving yards in ages 28+ is still Brown, with 11,509 yards.  Which … would still leave Jones shy of Rice.

Think about that for a second.  Jones is the career leader in receiving yards through the end of age 29.  If we project him to gain, from ages 30 through the end of his career, as many receiving yards as the guy with the most receiving yards from age 28 through the end of his career other than Rice… that still is not enough to get him the record.

Remarkable.