From 2012 to 2014, Larry Fitzgerald averaged 55.1 receiving yards per game.  This period covered his age 29 to 31 seasons, and were the worst three seasons of his career since his rookie season.  It was reasonable, I think, to assume Fitzgerald was on the decline and possibly near the end of his career.   After all, he ranked 40th in the NFL in receiving yards per game during this period, and was about to enter his age 32 season.

During this same period, Randall Cobb averaged 72.3 receiving yards per game despite being just 22, 23, and 24 years old.  His career trajectory was seemed limitless: he averaged 64 receiving yards per game at age 22, 72 at age 23, and 80 receiving yards per game at age 24.

So from 2012 to 2014, an about-to-be-32-year-old-Fitzgerald averaged 55.1 receiving yards per game, and an about-to-be-25-year-old-Cobb averaged 72.3 receiving yards per game.  Cobb was about to enter his prime years, while Fitzgerald had just left his behind.  If there were odds on who would gain more receiving yards over the next three seasons, they would be heavily weighed in Cobb’s favor.

And yet, from 2015 to 2017, Fitzgerald ranked 12th in receiving yards per game at 70.7, while Cobb ranked 55th at 47.5 receiving yards per game.

The graph below shows the 41 receivers to average at least 50 receiving yards per game from 2012 to 2014. ^[1]Excluding Josh Gordon, Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker, Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe, and Steve Johnson, who did not have even 500 yards from 2015 to 2017. On the X-Axis is their age entering the 2015 season; on the Y-Axis, the difference in their receiving yards per game from 2015 to 2017 minus their receiving yards per game from 2012 to 2014. So Fitzgerald, who was 32 years old in 2015, is at +16 receiving yards per game.

Fitzgerald (55.1 to 70.7) and Steve Smith (63.5 to 70, although he only played in 21 games) were the oldest receivers to actually increase their average from 2015-2017 relative to 2012-2014. The third oldest player was 30-year-old (as of 2015) tight end Greg Olsen (55.6 to 60.7).

In addition to Cobb, Torrey Smith (57.3 to 30.9) was the biggest disappointment among young receivers. Kendall Wright and Michael Floyd also saw notable declines, although neither averaged 55 receiving yards per game during the early period. Other noteworthy declines among players who should have been entering their prime years: Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker, who also dealt with the loss of star passers.

But ignoring the two Smiths (Steve only played in 21 games, Torrey wasn’t dominant to begin with), the performances of Fitzgerald and Cobb stand out to me as the most surprising. What do you think?