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Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. You probably already knew that, but I think his traditional stats tend to underrate the value Evans brings to the Bucs. He ranked just 15th in receiving yards and only 23rd in receptions, but he’s more valuable than those numbers indicate.

The biggest reason? Evans is a first down machine, with 77% of his catches last year turning into first downs. There were 43 players last season who had at least 60 receptions, and the only player with a highest first down rate was TE Rob Gronkowski. But even when Evans isn’t getting a first down, he’s still doing something productive.

If we break down his 71 catches:

  • All 15 of his catches on 3rd/4th down went for a first down;
  • 26 of his 37 catches on 1st down went for a first down; of the other 11, six went for 8 or more yards, three went for 6 yards, and the other two went for 4 and 5 yards. This means all 37 of his 1st down catches picked up either a first down or at least 40% of the yards needed to go for a first down, which means these were all successful catches.
  • On 2nd down, 14 of Evans’ 19 receptions went for first downs; of the other 5, one was a 13-yard gain on 2nd-and-15 and one was a 6-yard gain on 2nd-and-10. That leaves just three catches where Evans failed to pick up at least 60% of the necessary yards to get a first down: a 6-yard catch on a 2nd-and-15, a 4-yard catch on a 2nd-and-7 (arguably a successful play in its own right), and a 3-yard catch on a 2nd-and-10. And that was it.

To recap, all of Evans’ catches on 3rd/4th down went for a first down, and nearly all of his catches on 1st and 2nd down went for first downs, too. Of that remaining group, all of his first down catches gained at least 40% of the distance needed for a first, and all but three of his second down catches gained at least 60% of the ‘to go’ yardage. Just 4% of his catches last year were “unsuccessful”, the lowest rate of any player in the NFL last season.

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