Mike Evans, Larry Fitzgerald, and First Downs vs. Receptions

by Chase Stuart on January 11, 2017

in Receiving, Statistics

Larry Fitzgerald led the NFL in receptions this year, with 107. That’s good, but how important is leading the league in catches? The triple crown is thought of as the leaders in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, but I think we can all agree that receiving first downs is a better indicator of receiver play than receptions. If I was in charge of stats-keeping, I’d place far more emphasis of receiving first downs than receptions, because receptions that don’t go for first downs are far less valuable than receptions that do go for a first down. And while receptions may be a decent proxy for receiving first downs, there’s a lot of variance there.

The leader in receiving first downs this year was Mike Evans, and he certainly had a better statistical year than Fitzgerald. Evans had a stat line of 96-1321-12, with 81 first downs, compared to Fitzgerald’s 107-1023-6 and 59 first downs. That’s right: Evans had 22 more first downs on just 11 fewer grabs, thanks to his 84.4% first down rate compared to Fitzgerald’s 55.1%. Evans dominated the league in this metric, finishing with 15 more than anyone else. ^[1]Best as we can tell, the record for receiving first downs in a season was 92, shared by Calvin Johnson (2012) and Marvin Harrison (2002), until Julio Jones broke it last year with 93. Evans finished with 6 out of the 100 votes cast for the AP All-Pro team, which seems like a criminally low number that would be higher in first downs were as widely-reported as they should be.

In the interest of data disclosure, the table below shows the receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, *and receiving first downs* for the top receivers last season. I have also included each player’s receiving first down percentage, and their total number of Adjusted Catch Yards, defined here as receiving first downs * 9, plus receiving yards, plus receiving touchdowns * 11 (because a receiving TD already gets 9 yards since it is counted as a first down, too).

Rk	Receiver	Team	Rec	Rec Yds	TD	1D	1D %	ACY
1	Mike Evans	Buccaneers	96	1321	12	81	84.4%	2182
2	T.Y. Hilton	Colts	91	1448	6	66	72.5%	2108
3	Odell Beckham	Giants	101	1367	10	65	64.4%	2062
4	Julio Jones	Falcons	83	1409	6	64	77.1%	2051
5	Antonio Brown	Steelers	106	1284	12	64	60.4%	1992
6	Jordy Nelson	Packers	97	1257	14	62	63.9%	1969
7	Michael Thomas	Saints	92	1137	9	62	67.4%	1794
8	Doug Baldwin	Seahawks	94	1128	7	52	55.3%	1673
9	Brandin Cooks	Saints	78	1173	8	45	57.7%	1666
10	Travis Kelce	Chiefs	85	1125	4	54	63.5%	1655
11	Jarvis Landry	Dolphins	94	1136	4	52	55.3%	1648
12	Julian Edelman	Patriots	98	1106	3	55	56.1%	1634
13	Amari Cooper	Raiders	83	1153	5	47	56.6%	1631
14	Larry Fitzgerald	Cardinals	107	1023	6	59	55.1%	1620
15	Michael Crabtree	Raiders	89	1003	8	56	62.9%	1595
16	Greg Olsen	Panthers	80	1073	3	54	67.5%	1592
17	Demaryius Thomas	Broncos	90	1083	5	50	55.6%	1588
18	Tyrell Williams	Chargers	69	1059	7	48	69.6%	1568
19	Pierre Garcon	Redskins	79	1041	3	52	65.8%	1542
20	Emmanuel Sanders	Broncos	79	1032	5	50	63.3%	1537
21	Golden Tate	Lions	91	1077	4	46	50.5%	1535
22	Davante Adams	Packers	75	997	12	45	60%	1534
23	DeAndre Hopkins	Texans	78	954	4	56	71.8%	1502
24	Terrelle Pryor	Browns	77	1007	4	48	62.3%	1483
25	Kenny Britt	Rams	68	1002	5	47	69.1%	1480
26	Kelvin Benjamin	Panthers	63	941	7	50	79.4%	1468
27	Mike Wallace	Ravens	72	1017	4	43	59.7%	1448
28	Rishard Matthews	Titans	65	945	9	43	66.2%	1431
29	Adam Thielen	Vikings	69	967	5	44	63.8%	1418
30	Allen Robinson	Jaguars	73	883	6	51	69.9%	1408
31	Willie Snead	Saints	72	895	4	51	70.8%	1398
32	Jimmy Graham	Seahawks	65	923	6	45	69.2%	1394
33	A.J. Green	Bengals	66	964	4	41	62.1%	1377
34	Kyle Rudolph	Vikings	83	840	7	50	60.2%	1367
35	Stefon Diggs	Vikings	84	903	3	47	56%	1359
36	DeSean Jackson	Redskins	56	1005	4	34	60.7%	1355
37	Cole Beasley	Cowboys	75	833	5	51	68%	1347
38	Marvin Jones	Lions	55	930	4	41	74.5%	1343
39	Cameron Meredith	Bears	66	888	4	44	66.7%	1328
40	Brandon LaFell	Bengals	64	862	6	42	65.6%	1306
41	David Johnson	Cardinals	80	879	4	42	52.5%	1301
42	Marqise Lee	Jaguars	63	851	3	44	69.8%	1280
43	Zach Ertz	Eagles	78	816	4	42	53.8%	1238
44	Jamison Crowder	Redskins	67	847	7	34	50.7%	1230
45	Dez Bryant	Cowboys	50	796	8	38	76%	1226
46	Quincy Enunwa	Jets	58	857	4	36	62.1%	1225
47	Brandon Marshall	Jets	59	788	3	44	74.6%	1217
48	Alshon Jeffery	Bears	52	821	2	41	78.8%	1212
49	Steve Smith	Ravens	70	799	5	39	55.7%	1205
50	Delanie Walker	Titans	65	800	7	35	53.8%	1192
51	Dontrelle Inman	Chargers	58	810	4	37	63.8%	1187
52	Jordan Matthews	Eagles	73	804	3	38	52.1%	1179
53	Sterling Shepard	Giants	65	683	8	42	64.6%	1149
54	Jordan Reed	Redskins	66	686	6	41	62.1%	1121
55	Cameron Brate	Buccaneers	57	660	8	40	70.2%	1108
56	Kenny Stills	Dolphins	42	726	9	30	71.4%	1095
57	DeVante Parker	Dolphins	56	744	4	34	60.7%	1094
58	Dennis Pitta	Ravens	86	729	2	37	43%	1084
59	Martellus Bennett	Patriots	55	701	7	31	56.4%	1057
60	Eric Ebron	Lions	61	711	1	37	60.7%	1055
61	Anquan Boldin	Lions	67	584	8	41	61.2%	1041
62	Ted Ginn	Panthers	54	752	4	27	50%	1039
63	Jason Witten	Cowboys	69	673	3	33	47.8%	1003
64	Jeremy Kerley	49ers	64	667	3	33	51.6%	997

What do you think?

References[+]

References
↑1	Best as we can tell, the record for receiving first downs in a season was 92, shared by Calvin Johnson (2012) and Marvin Harrison (2002), until Julio Jones broke it last year with 93.

Tagged as: ACY/TmAtt, WR Project

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