The NFL is looking at adding a 7th team to the playoff field in each conference, which would represent a significant change in the current structure. Moving forward, only the #1 seed would have a bye. How would this chance things?
Wild Card Round
There would now be three games played here in each conference: as before, the 6 seed would travel to face the 3 seed, and the 5 seed would go on the road against the 4 seed. And the 1 seed would have a bye. But the 2 seed and 7 seed would now play each other, as opposed to both teams being off that week (with the 7 seed missing the playoffs).
My assumptions throughout this post are (1) home field advantage matters, and (2) the stronger seed is the better team, with the exception of 4 vs. 5. With 4-team divisions, the best team to not win its division — that is, often, the 2nd best team in the division with a very good division winner — is more often than not a better team than the worst division winner.
Let’s assume the 2 seed has a 65% chance of beating the 7 seed, the 3 seed has a 60% chance of winning, and the 4 seed has a 55% chance of winning. In the Division Round, the 1 seed will face the weakest remaining seed, while the strongest-seeded winner that won on Wild Card weekend would be home against the other remaining winner from Wild Card weekend. I simulated 32,000 playoff seasons to see which matchups are most likely in the Division Round.
As it turns out, the 1 seed has at least a 15% chance of facing any of the 4-7 seeds, with the 7 seed being its most likely opponent (because the 7 seed always plays the 1 seed when it wins). The 2 seed is the overwhelming favorite to be the other host team in the Division Round, although now the 3 seed has a 1-in-5 chance to do so (currently, it has a 0-in-5 chance of hosting a Division Round game). And heck, even the 5 seed has an opportunity to host a Division Round game, if all three road teams win on Wild Card weekend.
Division Round
A 1 vs. 4/5 and 2 vs. 3 matchup is still pretty likely in the Division Round, but there are all sorts of unusual possibilities, too. The 1 seed gets a couple of big boosts here: whereas before it would typically play the 4, 5, or 6 seed, there’s also a decent chance it gets to face the 7 seed. In 2018, the Steelers beat the Patriots in December, but lost the next week to the Saints, and ultimately finished as the best team in the AFC to miss the playoffs. Had these rules been in place, Pittsburgh would have traveled to Foxboro in a pretty interesting 2 vs. 7 matchup in round 1, which would have made the Chiefs path as the 1 seed a bit easier.
The 2 seed, when it beats the 7 seed, won’t have much change… but it does lose out on the all important bye week to rest and recover. The Chiefs, as the 2 seed this year, certainly benefited from that.
The 3 seed fares better under this format, because in about 1/3 of its Division games, it is the home team.
And life is better for the 4 and 5 seeds here, too. In the event the 6 and 7 seeds win, the 4/5 winner is home in the Division Round.
Previously, the 1-2-3-4 seeds had a 76%, 63%, 23%, and 15% chance of making it to the Conference Championship Game, respectively. Under this new format, those odds are now 79%, 41%, 29%, and 18%.
Conference Championship Game
Here, not much has changed: the strongest seed is at home against the other remaining team. But even still, life is probably slightly better for the 1 seed even when it hosts the 2 seed: after all, the 2 seed won’t have had that extra week of rest during the Wild Card round.
The 7 seed has a 2% chance of making it to the Super Bowl: it will need to beat the 2 seed, the 1 seed, and the other highest remaining seed. Even if you think it has a 25-30% chance of winning each of those games individually, that only gets it a 2% chance of winning all three of those games.
Monte Carlo Simulation
One way to re-create the above is by performing a Monte Carlo simulation, as I did with the current structure. You can download the Excel file that I created here. This file simulates 32,000 NFL postseasons under the new system with random results, weighted based on the percentage chance the home team has of winning each game.
You can change the probabilities as you like as to who will win each game, and I encourage you to do so! Leave your thoughts in the comments.
The current system vs. the proposed system
Here’s how I see the changes from the current system to the new proposed system, in terms of each team’s odds of making the Super Bowl.
What do you think?