The 2009 NFC Championship Game was a classic game featuring two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Brett Favre and Drew Brees. The Vikings battled the Saints in the Superdome to a 28-28 tie after four quarters. New Orleans won the coin toss, giving Brees and the offense the ball first. The Saints appeared to go three-and-out, but an incomplete pass on third down was negated by a defensive holding penalty. The Saints got to the Vikings 41-yard line, and a pass interference penalty gave them another 12 yards. A couple of minutes later, and Garrett Hartley hit a 40-yard field goal to send New Orleans to the Super Bowl.

It was an anticlimactic ending to a great game. After battling for four quarters, the Saints — aided by a pair of penalties — drove 39 yards in 10 plays to set up a chip shot field goal and won the game. The coin toss was too significant a factor in the game, critics felt, especially as kickers were becoming automatic at longer and longer distances.

So beginning in 2011, the NFL changed the rules: the team that wins the coin toss can’t win the game on a field goal. It must score a touchdown, or else the other team would get the ball, too. That would make the flip of the coin a bit less valuable, or so we were told.

Since then, there have been 11 overtime games played during the NFL playoffs. The team that won the coin toss has won 10 of those games. Let’s walk down memory lane:

Win The Toss, Drive For A TD

Seven of the 11 games followed this somewhat unfulfilling formula:

• Broncos/Steelers 2011: Tied at 23-23 after four quarters, this was the first overtime game with the rule change. The new twist was not meaningful: on the very first offensive play of the fifth period, Tim Tebow threw an 80-yard pass to Demaryious Thomas to end the game.
• Seahawks/Packers 2014: An absolutely bonkers game that was 19-7 with three minutes left went into overtime tied at 22 apiece. Aaron Rodgers drove the Packers down for a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation, but then sat on the sidelines as the Seahawks won the toss; Russell Wilson and Jermaine Kearse connected for a 35-yard touchdown on the sixth play from scrimmage of overtime, sending Seattle to the Super Bowl.
• Cardinals/Packers 2015: one year later and Aaron Rodgers somehow had another cinematic heartbreak. With 55 seconds left, the Packers were down 7 points and facing 4th-and-20 at their own 4-yard line. Somehow, he connected with Jeff Janis for two Hail Marys — for 61 and 40 yards, apiece — to tie the game on the final play of regulation. But Arizona won the toss, and Carson Palmer hit Larry Fitzgerald for a 75-yard catch and run on the Cardinals first offensive play of overtime. Two plays later, Palmer hit Fitzgerald for the game-winning touchdown, and Rodgers had lost back-to-back playoff games in overtime without ever stepping onto the field.
• Patriots/Falcons 2016: Is there much to say about this Super Bowl? Yes, trailing 28-3, Tom Brady and the Patriots completed the ultimate comeback. Perhaps less well-remembered: the Patriots won the toss, and drove 75 yards over 8 plays for the game-winning touchdown in the only Super Bowl to ever go to overtime. Matt Ryan, the NFL’s MVP during the regular season, was outstanding but finished the game with only 28 dropbacks, compared to Brady’s 67.
• Vikings/Saints 2019: this was the game where Kirk Cousins showed he had arrived…. or so we thought. A 49-yard field goal by Will Lutz on the final play of regulation sent this game into overtime tied at 20. But Drew Brees and the Saints offense never got to see the field; Cousins led an impressive 9-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that ended with a four yard touchdown pass to Kyle Rudolph on third down.
• Patriots/Chiefs 2018: An absolutely legendary AFC Championship Game that many thought would signal a passing of the torch from Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes. There were 24 points scored in the final four minutes and a remarkable 38 points scored in the fourth quarter. Kansas City scored on their final three drives, including a frantic, 30-second drive to send the game into overtime. But the Patriots won the coin toss, and Brady and the Patriots offense put together a methodical 13-play, 75-yard drive that ended with Rex Burkhead in the end zone, and the Patriots back in the Super Bowl.
• Chiefs/Bills 2021: the remarkable game we all saw last night. Mahomes and Josh Allen were magicians, or wizards, or cyborgs sent back from the future; we are still not sure. The two teams scored 25 points in the final two minutes, including a ludicrous scoring drive from the Chiefs that began with 13 seconds left and Kansas City at their own 25-yard line. But Josh Allen and the Bills, despite scoring 15 points in the final two minutes of the game, never saw the ball in overtime. Kansas City drove 75 yards in 8 plays, and Mahomes hit Travis Kelce for the game-winning touchdown to give the Chiefs a win that was in many ways a mirror of the Patriots/Chiefs game above.

Won The Toss, Stopped on the First Drive, But Won With A Field Goal

There were three games that would have played out the same way under the old rules.  Yes, the team that won the coin toss did get an extra drive, but the other offense at least had a chance.

• Giants/49ers 2011 was a defensive showdown that went into overtime tied at 17.  The Giants won the toss but the first drive quickly fizzled; the 49ers followed that with a three-and-out.  The Giants were forced to punt on the third drive of overtime when Kyle Williams muffed the return, setting New York up deep in San Francisco territory. A few Ahmad Bradshaw runs later, and Lawrence Tynes hit the game-winner to send the Giants back to the Super Bowl.
• Ravens/Broncos 2012 was the Joe Flacco/Jacoby Jones game. That 70-yard bomb in the final minute of regulation send the game into overtime — in part because John Fox chose to take a knee with 31 seconds left rather than try to score.  Baltimore won the coin toss, but ultimately punted on their first drive.  The Broncos then punted on a 4th-and-1 from their own 39, giving the ball back tot he Ravens who… punted again.  Denver took over at their own 7, and got to their own 38 before Peyton Manning‘s pass to Brandon Stokley was intercepted. Three plays later, the unstoppable Justin Tucker, then just a rookie, hit the 47-yard in what was by then double overtime.
• Texans/Bills 2019:  Perhaps the Deshaun Watson/Josh Allen playoff game isn’t at the top of your memory inbox. The Bills led most of the way, and were up 16-0 before the Texans scored two touchdowns with two 2-point conversions sandwiched around a field goal to take a 19-16 lead. The Bills answered and hit a field goal at the end of regulation to send the game into overtime.  Houston won the toss but failed to pick up a first down; the Bills and Allen drove into Houston territory, but stalled and were forced to punt. The Texans responded with a 73-yard drive that ended with a 28-yard field goal to win the game.

Won The Toss, Lost The Game

More random chance than anything — you don’t have a 9% chance of winning the game if you lose the toss! — but only one team has managed to kickoff to start overtime and still win.  That was the 2018 Rams, who beat the Saints in an NFC Championship Game that had a separate form of controversy.  With the game tied at 20, Drew Brees had the Saints at the 13-yard line with 1:49 to go.  On third down, Brees threw a pass to Tommylee Lewis that looked like it could go for a touchdown; instead, cornerback Nickel Robey-Coleman got away with a blatant pass interference. The Saints settled for a field goal, and then Jared Goff led the Rams on a drive to tie the game on a field goal in the final seconds of regulation. It fell like a “ball don’t lie” moment when the Saints won the coin toss, and after a pass interference was called on the Rams defense, the Saints had 1st and down from their own 40. But two plays later, Brees was intercepted, and Greg Zeuerlein followed up his 48-yarder to send Los Angeles into overtime with a 57-yarder to launch LA into the Super Bowl.