This marks the penultimate section of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in pro football history (or something like that). Keep in mind, of course, that I have purposely excluded the 2020 season because I began publishing the list before the season started. It feels a little silly to write as though the past season didn’t happen, but I don’t think it would be fair to count a season for higher ranked players that I didn’t include for lower ranked players. Today’s section covers players 50 through 21, and the top 20 will follow when I get around to it. This range includes many players often considered the greatest of all time at their respective positions, a few modern players who are probably higher here than they appear on most lists, and the last of the premodern stars. I have little doubt everyone who reads will be in complete agreement with these choices.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.
The Grand List, part 22: Includes players 149-101.
The Grand List, part 23: Includes players 100-51.

We’re almost there.

[continue reading…]

This article was originally published on the now defunct GridFe.com site. In an effort to preserve some of the material from that site, I am republishing the article on Football Perspective. Below is the full article, unchanged from its original form.

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As the league becomes increasingly reliant on the passing game, the need for players to support or defend passing offenses increases, while run oriented players see a concomitant decrease in necessity. Because of this, I have included a third receiver spot and space for a defensive back in the slot. However, with a hundred years of NFL football in the rearview, it feels right to include some traditional roster spots with a nod to the past. Thus, fullbacks, nose tackles and linebackers also have a home on the GridFe all decade team for the 2010s. ^[1]Given how long the league fielded 43 and 34 defenses as base personnel, this team will pay homage by including four linebacker slots.

Here’s the squad [continue reading…]

Adam Steele is back with a new entry into his Wisdom of Crowds series, and we thank him for it. Below are Adam’s thoughts.

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We’re in the dog days of the offseason, so what better time for another Wisdom of the Crowds exercise? This time, Football Perspective readers will be voting on the greatest teams in NFL history. For the sake of accessibility, the rules will be even simpler than usual:

• List your top 25 team seasons of all time in numerical order (For example, the 2008 Lions)
• All teams from the NFL, AFL, and AAFC are eligible (Like the undefeated and untied 1948 Browns)
• Winning a championship is not required for inclusion (Hello, 2007 Patriots)
• Multiple seasons from the same dynasty are permitted (1975 and 1976 Steelers? Why not?)

Polls will be open for two weeks after this is posted. As always, comments and discussion are strongly encouraged. Let’s go!

 

Adam Steele is back to provide a recap for his Wisdom of Crowds project, and we thank him for it.

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After two weeks of polling, we received 20 legal ballots and lots of great discussion. Thank you to everyone who participated! Let’s get straight to the results:

 

In this table you’ll see total points for each WR, average points per ballot, and the specific points distribution by each voter. I only ranked players who were listed on more than one ballot. Now you can compare your votes to others’ side by side!

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Jerry Rice is the runway winner for Greatest Wide Receiver of All-Time. He’s probably the only player in NFL history at any position that has no holes in his resume. Rice had a dominant peak, absurd longevity, holds every postseason record, and gave 100% effort at all times. He may very well be the greatest football player ever, period. [continue reading…]

Welcome to the antepenultimate section of the Grand List, in which I count down the top thousand players in pro football history (through 2019, when the countdown began). I have researched the game for decades, with thousands of hours of dedicated film study, obsessive attention to stats both common and obscure, and a frankly pathetic amount of literature consumed. So I would like to think my positions are well-grounded, having been based on thoughtful analysis and a great deal of attention to my own biases to try to account for my own blind spots. However, at the end of the day, I am still just one idiot on the internet making a list that I hope will engage people in friendly discussion about the game we love. All my time spent studying doesn’t make my opinion any more valid than the reader’s. Heck, I can think of a guy famed for his intellect who did plenty of studying at Harvard, and he’s a dunce.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.
The Grand List, part 22: Includes players 149-101.

Onward we go.

[continue reading…]

It’s time for yet another entry in the Grand List, a countdown of the top 1000 players in pro football history, in one fool’s opinion. ^[1]Remember, this list stops after the first hundred years of the NFL. That means I didn’t consider 2020 in my rankings. When I finish the full list, I plan to re-post an update that includes the … Continue reading We’re getting to the part where more quarterbacks are showing up, which often means increased noise from those who disagree. ^[2]I kindly remind you to send all hate mail to deletesansreading@gmail.com. As a person who hates arguing but loves sharing ideas, I have only brought this nightmare on myself and accept my fate.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.
The Grand List, part 21: Includes players 199-150.

Let’s get into it.

[continue reading…]

Adam Steele is back with a long-awaited wide receiver edition of his beloved Wisdom of Crowds exercise. We thank him for the beautiful discussion it will prompt.

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It’s been a few years since FP has run a Wisdom of the Crowds exercise, and this time around we’re going to do wide receivers.

For anyone wanting to submit a ballot, there are a handful of simple rules:

1. You have 200 points to distribute among your choices for the greatest wide receivers of all time. The criteria for greatness is entirely up to you, and explanations in the comments are encouraged. You can use half points (but nothing smaller than that).
2. No WR may be assigned more than 15 points. This is done to prevent a few over-weighted ballots from skewing the results.
3. The maximum number of WR’s you may list is 50, but it’s okay to list fewer than that as long as the points sum to 200.
4. Players whose career began before 1935 are not eligible because the earliest days of the NFL were too different from the modern game to make fair comparisons.
5. Please compose and submit your ballot before reading anyone else’s.
6. Ballots will be accepted for two weeks after the day this is posted.

My preferred way to come up with NFL team ratings and NFL strength of schedule ratings is to trust the experts: in this case, the Vegas oddsmakers. Every year (or at least the years where I remember to do so), after Vegas releases the point spreads for every game, I take those weekly “ratings” to derive the Vegas ratings are for each team. Hence the title of today’s post: we can use the Vegas point spreads in each game to derive the implied ratings by the oddsmakers (in this case, Action Network) for each team.

The way to generate team ratings is to take the point spread in each game, adjust for home field (except for the two international games), and then determine by how many points Vegas thinks Team A is better than Team B. For example, when the Jets are 4.5-point underdogs to the Panthers in Carolina, we can imply that Carolina is viewed as 2 points better than the Jets (I am using 2.5 points for home field advantage). Using the iterative SRS process, and because the transitive property of point spreads applies, we can generate team ratings based on the 272 point spreads involved. [continue reading…]

Strap in for part 21 of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in pro football history (who played enough time in the NFL to show they could succeed there). Doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but I’ve never been much for marketing and SEO optimization. Today’s section has a little something for everyone, with a wide enough distribution of positions to fill a full offense and defense—with subs. There are underrated non-Hall of Famers and legends often cited as the best at their positions. We have ballers from 1925 to the present, with versatile Swiss Army Knife types and guys who happened to do one thing but did it at an all time great level. We’re not at the part yet where people start questioning my sanity or telling me to take a nap in traffic, but we’re getting close!

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.
The Grand List, part 20: Includes players 249-200.

Words, words, words…

[continue reading…]

Every year, I publish a color-coded version of the NFL schedule the night it is released. Tonight is that night.

Download the Excel file here. [continue reading…]

The debate was intense this spring.  The Cincinnati Bengals desperately needed to help young quarterback Joe Burrow, and there were likely going to be two outstanding offensive prospects available for Cincinnati.  But those players would help the offense in drastically different ways.

One option was to draft Burrow’s former teammate, LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase. The other was to draft Oregon OT Penei Sewell, which would help the offense in a very different way.  Many chimed in on the debate, and the most interesting part of the analysis was the value placed on each position.  Few debated whether Chase or Sewell were elite prospects; both were blue chip players at their position in college, and little of the argument centered on how they compared to others at the same position.  Rather, the question could be boiled down to this: was adding a great WR prospect better or worse than adding a great OT prospect?

On a pass play, the wide receivers are attackers and the offensive linemen are mitigators. Grouping players into attackers and mitigators can be a helpful way to analyze what each position brings to the game.  An elite attacker is always valuable, although his value might be limited if he’s lined up against a great mitigator.  But a mitigator is only as valuable as the person he’s trying to mitigate and the other mitigators on his team. This is easiest to think about when it comes to cornerbacks.  Nnamdi Asomugha was a shutdown, Hall of Fame level cornerback for three years in Oakland at a time when the Raiders pass defense was below average. Asomugha was targeted to an absurdly low degree, and while teams were forced to throw away from him, that didn’t matter much because the other mitigators were below average. [continue reading…]

One of the most unique parts of the 2021 NFL Draft was the reuniting of college teammates in the passing game. The Cincinnati Bengals drafted LSU quarterback Joe Burrow first overall last season; holding the 5th overall selection this year, Burrow was rumored to be pushing his organization to draft his former teammate, Tigers WR Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals did in fact pull the trigger on Chase, making them the extremely rare combination of quarterback and receiver to get drafted out of the same college and to the same team in the first round in back to back years.

But it didn’t stop there.  With the very next pick, Miami drafted Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle, a year after drafting Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick.  But it didn’t stop there: Alabama WR DeVonta Smith was selected by the Eagles with the 10th overall pick, and that reunites him with Jalen Hurts, the Eagles starting quarterback and a member of the 2017 and 2018 Crimson Tide teams. [continue reading…]

The old adage is that you build teams from the inside out. I don’t know if that is or ever has been true, but I know this: with 23 of the 50 players coming from the offensive of defensive line, part 20 of the Grand List is built from the inside out. At the same time, this is perhaps the most diverse section of the list, as it includes a player at every position, including the highest ranked kickers and punters in the series. There isn’t much controversy this time, with every player either a current or future Hall of Famer or a perennial all star. Enjoy.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.
The Grand List, part 19: Includes players 299-250.

Here we go, then.

[continue reading…]

In Part I, we learned that there is a correlation between 40-yard dash times and wide receiver success in the NFL.

In Part II, we learned that there is a correlation between 40-yard dash times and where a wide receivers gets drafted.

Today: have NFL teams been properly evaluating 40-yard dash times when drafting wide receivers?

My plan *was* going to be as follows.  Let’s break things down into two buckets: wide receivers who were drafted much higher than their 40 time would indicate, and wide receivers who were drafted much lower than their 40 time would indicate. Then, see which category fared better. Should be easy, right?

On one hand, you have players like Larry Fitzgerald and Peter Warrick: wide receivers who were bringing something to the table besides their 40-time. Fitzgerald ran the 40 in 4.48 seconds yet was drafted 3rd overall. Warrick ran it in 4.58 seconds and was the 4th overall pick! Both players were dominant in college but not known for their speed: NFL executives certainly didn’t put too much weight in their 40 times when evaluating those guys. To the extent you think NFL teams always overweight the 40, Fitzgerald and Warrick are too good reminders that that is not the case. [continue reading…]

Update:

The 2021 NFL Draft saw 156.7 points of draft value spent on quarterbacks, the 2nd-most in NFL history behind only 1999.  As expected, Lawrence and Wilson were the first two picks, with Lance going third overall.  The fourth quarterback didn’t go off the board until the 11th pick, which was a bit of a surprise: that was Fields to Chicago, and the fifth quarterback (Jones) went to New England at 15.  Trask, Mond, and Mills were indeed seen as the best of the rest, and went in the span of four picks in the 60s.  The margin was so close that had Fields been selected with the 8th overall pick, and the rest of the quarterbacks were chosen in the same spot, then the 2021 Draft would have exceeded the ’99 Draft in terms of draft capital spent on quarterbacks.

The rest of the original article is below.

The 2021 NFL Draft looks to be extremely quarterback heavy. The Jaguars are going to select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick, and the expectation is that the Jets will draft BYU passer Zach Wilson with the second selection.  The 49ers will likely draft a quarterback with the third pick, too, and the rumors are that it could be Alabama QB Mac Jones, or Ohio State’s Justin Fields, or even North Dakota State’s Trey Lance; regardless, all five quarterbacks are expected to go in the first round, and perhaps even all in the top ten!  Three other quarterbacks — Stanford’s Davis Mills, Florida’s Kyle Trask, and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond could have early picks used on them, too.

The most QB-heavy draft in NFL history was not the famous 1983 Draft — which featured three HOF passers and six quarterbacks selected in the first round — but rather the 1999 Draft.  That year, quarterbacks were taken with the first three picks, and two more were drafted in the top fifteen; second, third, and two fourth round picks were also used on quarterbacks.

I looked at every NFL Draft since 1950 and calculated how much draft capital was spent on quarterbacks each year.  The picture below shows those results, using the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart.

Let’s say that in the 2021 Draft, Lawrence/Wilson/Fields go with the first three picks, Lance and Jones get selected at 7 and 9, and as The Athletic’s Mock Draft by Dane Brugler provides, Mills goes to the Patriots in the middle of the second round, Mond is taken by the Bears a few picks later, and Trask is a fourth round pick by the Vikings.  If no other quarterbacks are selected in the top 224, that would mean that the draft capital spent on quarterbacks in 2021 was equal to 159 points using the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart.  That would, by a hair, make this the most quarterback-heavy draft in NFL history, as the ’99 Draft had 158.6 points of draft capital spent on quarterbacks. And if quarterbacks go 1-2-3-4 to start the Draft, that would up the allocation to 162.6 points. It seems very likely that 2021 will be either the #1 or #2 quarterback draft in NFL history, at least according to draft capital spent on the position.

Warmest regards, friends of the program. Today marks the 19th installment of the Grand List, in which I rank the top one thousand professional football players in history (whose careers preceded or included a good chunk of time in the NFL). In this section, we’ll look at players 299-250. It’s a portion of the list that includes a few players you may expect to see rank much higher, as well as a few players who may have you wondering why they were included in the top 1000 at all. Opinions are all my own and are derived from far too much time studying a meaningless game over a period of about thirty years. If you disagree, that’s great. If all lists looked the same, what a boring life that would be.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.
The Grand List, part 18: Includes players 349-300.

Let’s go, babies.

[continue reading…]

It’s time for part 18 of the Grand List, or: the top one thousand players in pro football history who played a significant amount of time in the NFL, or something like that. In today’s section of the list, we have likely-to-be-controversial quarterback rankings, a wide range of defensive linemen, a feast of interior blockers, some versatile backs (of both the running and defensive persuasion), several receivers underrated because of the modern passing explosion, and three very different linebackers. Only three active players are featured today, but I will repeat my caveat from last time: because most of this list was presented prior to the 2020 season, last year’s performances—good and bad—will have no bearing on a player’s ranking moving forward. I have every intention of posting the list, in full, with updates, provided Chase lets me publish such a long post. Maybe I’ll just post it as a list and only write about new additions, not to be mistaken for New Editions (so no Mike Bivins). Alas, I have rambled too long.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400.
The Grand List, part 17: Includes players 399-350.

Festina, folks.

[continue reading…]

It was just three years ago that the New York Jets decided they absolutely needed to trade into the top 3 of the 2018 NFL Draft. The decision was bad at the time and looks worse in hindsight: not only did New York whiff by drafting Sam Darnold, one of the biggest draft busts in recent history, but the Jets could have taken either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson with the team’s original pick.

The package that New York sent to Indianapolis for the 3rd pick was massive: New York sent the 6th overall pick (Quenton Nelson), along with the 37th (Braden Smith) and 49th (Dallas Goedert) picks, plus a 2019 2nd round pick (34th overall, Rock Ya-Sin) for the rights to acquire whoever would be there at three. The Jets got “lucky” in that Darnold, for much of the pre-draft process considered the presumptive first overall pick, was even available to them at three. As I wrote at the time, the Jets chose the rights to the third quarterback ^[1]Which, after the Giants drafted Saquon Barkley, turned into the second available quarterback. available in the draft over getting Lamar Jackson plus four second round picks. It has worked out to such a poor degree that the Jets are one month away from using the #2 overall pick that the Darnold-led Jets very much earned on Darnold’s successor.

Well, the 49ers decided what was bad for the Jets would be good for them. Because San Francisco decided to acquire Miami’s 3rd overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft — ostensibly the right to select the third quarterback in the draft after the Jaguars and Jets have their picks — for a similarly enormous haul. San Francisco sent the 12th overall selection, along with its 1st and 3rd round picks in 2022, and its first round pick in 2023 in exchange for that third overall selection.

Can we calculate just how much the 49ers overpaid for the rights to the third pick? Under my draft value chart, the 3rd pick is worth 27.6 points while the 12th pick is worth 18.8 points; of course, those are just average values, and the 49ers feel like the dropoff in quality between a quarterback available at 3 and a quarterback available at 12 is enormous.

Let’s assume that the 49ers two first round picks will be average; pick 16 is valued at 16.9 points. If we assume a 10% discount rate on future picks for each season, that puts those two picks at 15.2 and 13.5 points, respectively. The 49ers are also sending a 2022 3rd round pick which is a comp pick (in this case, compensation for the Jets hiring Robert Saleh as head coach); that pick should be right around pick 100, worth 5.3 points. Apply a 10% discount, and we get 4.8 points.

So the 49ers gave up draft picks worth 18.8, 15.2, 13.5, and 4.8 points, for a total of 52.3 points. That is, obviously, a significant package, equivalent to the first overall pick in the draft plus another top-15 pick. To move up from 12 to 3, the 49ers gave up more than the Jets did when they moved up from 6 to 3; the Jets overall sent more total value to draft Darnold than San Francisco did to draft QB3 this year, but overall, the teams are pretty similar: [continue reading…]

In Part I, we learned that there is a correlation between 40-yard dash times and wide receiver success in the NFL. Today, I want to look at a third variable: NFL Draft status.

My sample once again comprises the 853 wide receivers who ran the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine from 2000 to 2017. All data is publicly available from PFR, via Stathead Football. If you think there was a strong correlation between 40-yard dash time and NFL production, wait until you see the correlation between 40-yard dash time and draft status.

In the table below, the average draft value represents the FP draft value associated with each pick. A higher number means more draft value — i.e., an earlier pick — was used to select those players. [continue reading…]

The NFL Draft is supposed to help promote parity in the league. By giving the teams with the worst records the best draft picks, all teams are pushed to regress towards the mean over time. The Jaguars and Jets were the worst two teams in the 2020 NFL season, and they have the first two picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, giving those organizations a chance to land franchise-altering quarterbacks.

But the third pick belongs to the Miami Dolphins, as the last bit of compensation in the Laremy Tunsil trade. Miami is the rare team that was both good last year and has a ton of draft capital, which could set the team up for long-term success.

Yesterday, the NFL released the final order for the entire 2021 NFL Draft. Using both the traditional, Jimmy Johnson draft chart and the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart, below is how much draft capital each organization has, from most to least. [continue reading…]

In 2019, Carolina wide receiver D.J. Moore gained 1,175 receiving yards; in 2020 he caught 66 passes for 1,193 yards. Strong seasons, to be sure, but probably not too noteworthy in your head. For instance, over the last two seasons, there have been 15 players who had more than 1,193 receiving yards in either 2019 or 2020.

But among that group, tight end Travis Kelce is the only one who did it in both years. In fact, Moore is the only wide receiver to hit 1,175 yards in both seasons. Drop the threshold to 1,165 yards, and DeAndre Hopkins also joins the group. Drop down to 1,130, and then Stefon Diggs and Allen Robinson also make the cut (as does another tight end, Darren Waller). But no matter: if one is playing a game of trivia, D.J. Moore is the answer to the question: which wide receiver topped the highest threshold of receiving yards in each of the past two season?

That’s funky, of course, and a misleading way of implying that Moore might be the best receiver in the NFL. In addition to Kelce, four wide receivers (Diggs, Hopkins, Robinson, and Davante Adams) gained more receiving yards than Moore and a few others (Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, and Tyreek Hill) also have averaged more receiving yards per game than Moore. ^[1]Allen Robinson actually averaged fewer yards per game; Moore played 15 game both years, while Robinson did not miss a game. But misleading stats can also make for fun trivia, so this made me wonder: who are the other D.J. Moore all stars in NFL history?

For example, Michael Thomas crossed the highest threshold in both 2018 and 2019, as he was the only player to top 1,400 yards both seasons. In 2017 and 2018, DeAndre Hopkins had over 1,375 receiving yards both years. In fact, 2019 and 2020 was the first time since the strike-impacted seasons of 1987 and 1988 that no wide receiver topped 1,200 yards both seasons.

The table below shows the leading wide receiver in each pair of seasons since the merger, from the perspective of crossing a certain minimum threshold. [continue reading…]

The 2020 Atlanta Falcons starting offensive linemen were all former first round picks. Atlanta drafted right guard Chris Lindstrom and right tackle Kaleb McGary in the first round of the 2019 Draft, five years after using the 6th overall pick on Texas A&M left tackle Jake Matthews. In 2016, Atlanta signed center Alex Mack, the 21st pick in the 2009 Draft, away from the Browns to a monster deal; he’s been the center of the team’s offensive line ever since. And in the 2019 offseason, the left guard spot was pugged by James Carpenter, who had been a first round pick out of Alabama and then played four seasons each with the Seahawks and Jets.

It should go without saying that that is a lot of highly drafted offensive linemen for one team, even if Atlanta only drafted three of the players. ^[1]The Falcons also had five first round picks on offense outside of the offensive line: the Falcons drafted QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones, and WR Calvin Ridley in the first round, too, and added former … Continue reading Let’s compare them to the Green Bay Packers, who had arguably the best offensive line in the NFL and trotted out the following starting five:

• LT David Bakhtiari (4th round pick by the Packers in 2013)
• LG Elgton Jenkins (2nd round pick by the Packers in 2019)
• C Corey Linsley (5th round pick by the Packers in 2014)
• RG Lucas Patrick (undrafted free agent out of Duke signed by the Packers in 2017)
• RT Billy Turner (3rd round pick by the 2014 Dolphins, signed by Green Bay in the 2019 offseason)

The Packers had one of the least heralded group of offensive linemen in the league — at least from a draft perspective (in other news, the entire left side of the line made the Pro Bowl). How does that compare to the rest of the NFL? [continue reading…]

Welcome to part 17 of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in history (in my opinion, as of the end of the 2019 season). The original plan for this series was to have it done by the start of the 2020 season. That didn’t happen. In order to keep every player on the same playing field, I’m going to continue the presenting the series without including the 2020 season (it hardly seems fair to exclude 2020 for Nuk Hopkins but include it for Julio). ^[1]Spoiler alert! Quintorris made the list. This portion of the list has something for everyone, unless you fancy yourself a special teams enthusiast. We have passers, pure runners, receiving backs with confusing legacies, antediluvian receivers, linemen and linebackers of all kinds, a cover corner, and some hard hitting safeties. It’s safe to think of everything from this point on as a list of players whose play merits strong Hall of Fame consideration. ^[2]Note, there are several players who would move up (or even onto) the list were I to include 2020. Off the top of my head, I can think of 18 players already on the list who would move up. I can think … Continue reading

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.
The Grand List, part 4: Includes players 939-901.
The Grand List, part 5: Includes players 900-876.
The Grand List, part 6: Includes players 875-851.
The Grand List, part 7: Includes players 850-810.
The Grand List, part 8: Includes players 809-780.
The Grand List, part 9: Includes players 779-750.
The Grand List, part 10: Includes players 749-700.
The Grand List, part 11: Includes players 699-650.
The Grand List, part 12: Includes players 649-600.
The Grand List, part 13: Includes players 599-550.
The Grand List, part 14: Includes players 549-500.
The Grand List, part 15: Includes players 499-450.
The Grand List, part 16: Includes players 449-400

Away we go!

[continue reading…]

Over at FiveThirtyEight, Josh Hermsmeyer recently wrote about wide receivers and 40-yard dash times. Using yards per route run as his measure of productivity, Josh concluded “that higher speed isn’t associated with higher on-field production.” Today I want to take a deep dive into the question of how much 40-yard dash times are correlated with wide receiver success. For a very long time, people have argued that 40-yard dash times are overrated (actually, for a very long time, people have argued that just about everything is overrated). But such a comment is paper thin, because it’s unclear exactly how “rated” 40-yard dash times are, anyway. So let’s skip the overrated/underrated analysis and dive into the data.

My sample comprises the 853 wide receivers who ran the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine from 2000 to 2017. ^[1]Why those years? PFR’s data only goes back to 2000, and players who participated at the combine more recently than 2017 have not yet accrued four NFL seasons. All data is publicly available from PFR, via Stathead Football. I then looked at how many receiving yards those players gained in their first four seasons in the NFL. ^[2]Chosen because this represents the average length of a rookie contract. The question of what metric to use to measure production is a complicated one: receiving yards is not perfect (and I will revisit this decision at the end of the article), but it should work well enough for these purposes.

On average, these 853 players ran the 40-yard dash in 4.51 seconds and gained a total of 678 receiving yards in their first four seasons; this includes the 360 of them who never gained a receiving yard in the NFL. The top three wide receivers by receiving yards over this period ^[3]This analysis, of course, excludes players who were not invited to the combine like Tyreek Hill and Josh Gordon, undrafted players like Victor Cruz, Robby Anderson, and Doug Baldwin, and players who … Continue reading were Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, and Anquan Boldin, who ran the 40-yard dash in 4.57, 4.48, and 4.72 seconds, respectively. Strike one for 40-yard dash times mattering. The fastest two players were John Ross and Donte’ Stallworth, who both ran the 40 in 4.22 seconds. ^[4]That might sound like strike two, but Stallworth was tied for the 61st most receiving yards out of this group if 853 receivers. It’s a strike for 40-yard dash time being the only thing that … Continue reading

But anecdotes can only take us so far when we have 853 players, from Ross and Stallworth on the far left, to Thomas up at the top, all the way to Mississippi State’s De’Runnya Wilson, who never played in the NFL and ran the 40 in 4.85 seconds. [continue reading…]

On Monday, I looked at which receivers were the most productive on a per-team pass attempt basis. This is one good way to measure wide receiver production, but it is far from perfect.

Players on teams with bad quarterbacks will be harmed, as are players who are “competing” with really good receivers on their offense will be boosted. The two guys I’m really thinking of are Terry McLaurin (who ranked 23rd in ACY/TPA on Monday) and Allen Robinson (19th), two wide receivers we know are very good but had very poor quarterback play. ^[1]An interesting scenario is in Carolina, where the quarterback play was below average but D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson had to compete with each other.

So today I want to look at which receivers gained the largest share of their team’s receiving pie, measured simply as receiving yards in the games they played. Davante Adams led all players in percentage of team receiving yards, at 37.2%, and he did it while playing for the best passing offense in football. It is extremely rare for a wide receiver to both play for an incredible passing offense and have an insanely large share of the pie: it is one reason why Adams had one of the great seasons in receiving history in 2020.

Beyond Adams, who were the most impressive receivers in 2020? There might be some trade-off between being on a great offense and being on a bad one; all things being equal, it’s easier for Robinson or McLaurin to gobble up targets than say, someone in Tampa Bay or Kansas City’s offense. One way I like to measure receivers is to look at both the quality of the pie — i.e., how good was their passing game — and how big of a slice each receiver gobbled up. Getting a good-size pie on a great passing offense, a large chunk of a good passing game, and a huge chunk of a bad passing game are all about equally impressive if you think that players “compete” with their teammates for targets.

In the graph below, I’ve shown the percentage of the team receiving yards each receiver had in 2020 (limited only to the games they played) on the X-Axis, and their team’s passing efficiency (as measured by ANY/A) on the Y-Axis. I’ve also labeled some notable players who stood out. [continue reading…]

Davante Adams was the best wide receiver in the NFL in 2020, and by a very large margin. Unless you want to assign a heavy penalty on him for playing with the MVP quarterback, Adams had otherworldly numbers. He played in just 14 games, but still gained 1,374 yards, 73 first downs, and caught 18 touchdowns. This came in just 461 pass attempts during those 14 games, making that even more impressive.

When measuring receiver performance, it’s important to recognize that some wide receivers play on pass-heavy teams while some play on run-heavy teams. Targets are often mistakenly viewed as a measure of opportunity, when really targets are a form of production; a player who gets a target on a play is doing something positive. The best measure of opportunity is routes run, and team pass attempts serves as a good proxy for that.

Let’s skip Adams, who again blows away the field. Let’s instead look at Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown, who is often the lead horse for the great efficiency numbers that Ryan Tannehill has produced since joining the Titans. Brown missed two games this year, but in those 14 games, he gained 1,075 receiving yards, 55 first downs and 11 touchdowns. Most impressively, this came with only 424 pass attempts (excluding sacks) in those games. Brown picked up a first down on 13% of all Titans pass attempts in the games he played, the fourth-best mark in the NFL; he caught a touchdown on 2.6% of all Tennessee pass plays during those 14 games, the third-highest mark in the league. A receiver can only produce on passing plays, and Brown was a huge reason for the Titans success last year.

For each receiver last year, I calculated how many Adjusted Catch Yards they gained, which is simply receiving yards with a 9-yard bonus for each first down and a 20-yard bonus for each touchdown. ^[1]Without duplication, so a touchdown only gets 11 additional yards, since each touchdown is always a first down. For Brown, that means he gained 1691 adjusted catch yards; in the 14 games he played, he averaged 3.99 ACY per team pass attempt, the second-best rate in the NFL. Here are the top 100 receivers by this metric: [continue reading…]

While most (all?) other organizations and publications reserve their all pro selections for the regular season alone, I like to include the playoffs when handing out my awards and honors. This means I publish them way after anyone else publishes theirs, and certainly well past the point people who aren’t die-hard NFL degenerates still care about such things. Writing about things no one cares about is my specialty, so I figured I’d break my long writing hiatus to present some useless information to the good readers of Football Perspective. ^[1]People have asked me about finishing the Grand List, as well as other topics. While the plan was to finish the top 1000 prior to the start of the 2020 season, new life realities made that more … Continue reading

While most all pro teams have preset slots to fill, mine are more amorphous. In a season with several standouts at a position and few at another, I may allow for more players at the deep position and fewer at the shallow. Last year, my offense featured two backs, three wide receivers, and two tight ends. This year, it didn’t make much sense to have more than one back or tight end. Question my rationale if you like, but it’s my team, and I’ll do as I please. (Also, unlike the AP/SN/PFWA teams, players don’t have bonuses tied to my squad, and this ultimately doesn’t really matter). Enough with the expository applesauce. On to the picks. [continue reading…]

On paper, the Buccaneers added a lot of big names in the offseason. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski from the Patriots, a former top-5 pick at running back in Leonard Fournette, and an All-Pro wide receiver in Antonio Brown. Tampa Bay also hit home runs with its first two draft picks, offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs and cornerback Antoine Winfield Jr..

But the Buccaneers did not have a particularly large amount of turnover compared to recent Super Bowl champions. In fact, by one measure, each of the five previous Super Bowl champions had bigger turnover than Tampa Bay. Other than Brady, most of the big names didn’t have a big impact for Tampa Bay, at least until the Super Bowl. Leonard Fournette had just 367 rushing yards during the regular season; Brown had just 483 receiving yards in 8 games; Gronk averaged 39 yards per game, the lowest mark in his career other than during his rookie season (in ’19, O.J. Howard averaged 33 yards per game for Tampa Bay). Of course, in Super Bowl LV it was a different story: our lasting image of the 2020 Bucs will be Gronkowski scoring 2 touchdowns, Brown catching a touchdown, and Fournette picking up 135 total yards and a touchdown.

How do we compare one team to its squad from the prior year? Great question! It’s tricky: we want to compare not just roster turnover, but the value of those players. The Chiefs added both Brady and LeSean McCoy, but that should not count as equal moves. Similarly, you have to look at how the player was used in the prior season. For example, Kurt Warner was on both the ’98 Rams and the ’99 Rams, but it would be poor analysis to say that the ’99 Rams had the same quarterback as they did the prior year.

Really we want to look at two things: how much was the player a part of the Super Bowl team (to avoid overemphasizing the McCoys of the world) and for players on the team, how much was that player a part of the team the prior year (to avoid the Warner problem). To measure how valuable a player was, I am going to use PFR’s AV, which does as good a job as any other metric to compare the value of players across positions and eras. For each player on each Super Bowl team, I will measure how much AV they produced as a percentage of the team’s total AV. I will also do that the year before, and then take the lower of those two values.

Let’s use a few examples. The 2020 Buccaneers had 243 points of AV, and Brady had 15 of them; therefore, he was responsible for about 6% of the team’s value. He was not on the team in 2019, of course, so Brady gets a 0 when we calculate how much of the 2019 Bucs were on the 2020 Bucs. That’s a big deal, because there is only 94% of the AV left to allocate. McCoy had just 1 point of AV, or 0.4% of the team’s AV; he also gets a zero since he wasn’t on Tampa Bay in 2019, but that has a much smaller impact. Donovan Smith had about 4% of the AV on the 2019 Bucs and 4% of the AV on the 2020 Bucs; therefore, taking the minimum doesn’t change things; he gets assigned 4%.

If we do this for every player on the 2020 roster, and take the minimum value between the percentage of AV they had for the ’20 Bucs and the percentage of AV they had for the ’19 Bucs, and then sum the results, we get a value of 60%. This may not mean a ton to you in the abstract — it wouldn’t be quite right to say that 40% of the roster turned over — but it is very helpful if we are comparing teams. [continue reading…]

Adam Steele is back for another guest post. You can view all of Adam’s posts here. As always, we thank him for contributing.

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With the 2020 NFL playoffs having just concluded, now seems like a great time to tackle a question I’ve had for years: How strongly does quarterback performance correlate with team success in the postseason?

First, we need to measure quarterback performance. I graded each playoff start on a 0-4 scale, with zero being terrible and four being dominant. I chose this because it matches the academic GPA scale we’re all familiar with. The grade is based on performance while adjusting for era, opponent, weather, and other contextual factors.

Now you may be wondering why I don’t just use stats to grade games. Well, for the tiny sample of a single game stats can be very misleading, especially given the opponent and weather extremes we tend to see in the playoffs. I also prefer a rough instrument for this study so parsing all games into five buckets is ideal.

I included all quarterbacks with six or more playoff starts, giving us a sample of 69 players and 745 graded games. We’ll look at individual quarterbacks later, but for now let’s evaluate the big picture: [continue reading…]