As a rookie, New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara averaged a whopping 6.07 yards per carry, leading the league in that metric by just about any measure. But given the large amount of regression to the mean involved in yards per carry, what would be a reasonable projection for Kamara in 2018?

I looked at the top 50 players in yards per carry from 1960 to 2016, among players who had (1) between 75 and 175 carries and (2) had fewer than 15 pass attempts. There were 13 players who averaged more than Kamara’s 6.07 YPC average (based on 120 carries for 728 yards), and the group as a whole averaged 110 carries for 641 yards, a 5.85 YPC average. So this group was slightly less effective than Kamara. The next year? They averaged 115.3 carries for just 503.8 yards, a 4.37 yards per carry average. That’s a drop of 25%; if Kamara had a similar drop, he would be at 4.53 YPC next season.

The table below shows those 50 players plus Kamara, and how they fared the next season: [continue reading…]

A few months ago on Reddit, I saw this remarkable stat: including the postseason, Tom Brady is 19-9 in games where he throws at least 50 passes.

How remarkable is that? All quarterbacks have a 0.230 winning percentage in games where they have thrown 50+ passes, which means you’d expect a quarterback with 28 such games to win 6.4 of them, not 19 of them. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Joe Montana, and Aaron Rodgers have won 19 games when throwing 50+ passes…. but have lost 54 times, a 0.260 winning percentage.

Brady’s success in these games is so remarkable that it might be too remarkable. What I mean by that is that if the average quarterback wins 23% of the time, and the greatest quarterbacks in the game win 26% of the time, seeing Brady win 68% of the time probably isn’t evidence that he’s the greatest quarterback ever — unless he’s about ten times better than every other great quarterback. I’ll let you speculate in the comments as to why the Patriots record is so incredible in these games. The table below shows the records of all quarterbacks in 50+ attempt games (minimum 4 such games), sorted by wins over expectation of a 0.230 winning percentage: [continue reading…]

The NFL requires a player to record 6.25 carries per game in order to qualify for the yards per carry crown. Using that cutoff, here were the leaders in yards per carry during the 2013 season.

There is nothing special about a threshold of 6.25 carries/game (or 100-carries in a 16-game season).  If the cut-off was lower, we could have had any of these players be the yards per carry king for the 2013 season:

[continue reading…]

Whether it’s Mitchell Trubisky or Deshone Kizer or well, any rookie quarterback in the foreseeable future that underwhelms, the new theory for optimism is “Well look at how lost Jared Goff was as a rookie!” There is no doubt that Goff was terrible as a rookie and it’s equally true that he was excellent as a sophomore. Goff pulled off a remarkable worst-to-first campaign, ranking last in ANY/A in 2016 and then first in ANY/A in 2017. He increased his ANY/A average by 4.90, the greatest year-over-year increase in NFL history. That is why he is the exception.

I looked at all quarterbacks who (1) were 24 or younger during their rookie season, (2) threw at least 150 passes as a rookie, (3) threw at least 150 passes in their second year, and (4) entered the league in 1969 (when we first have sack data) or later. This naturally biases results in favor of second-year passers who improve, as quarterbacks who struggle as a rookie and then struggle in year two may not hit the 150-pass attempt threshold. Regardless, Goff’s improvement was truly remarkable. He finished 3.39 below league average in ANY/A in 2016 and then 1.82 above ANY/A in 2017. The graph below shows all passers who met the four criteria above. On the X-Axis, their Relative ANY/A as a rookies; on the Y-Axis, their Relative ANY/A as second-year players. A quarterback who is bad as a rookie and good as a sophomore would therefore be on the upper left quadrant of the chart, which is precisely where Goff (shaded in red) sits: [continue reading…]

Nine years ago, at the old PFR Blog, I wrote an article that suggested that Jason Witten would join the Hall of Fame in the Class of 2024. That may be particularly prescient, as Witten just retired, making him eligible to make the Hall of Fame beginning in the Class of ’23.

The main reason I figured Witten would make it to Canton? Through age 26 (the 2008 season), he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end, and he was showing no signs of slowing down.

Well, he didn’t slow down. Two years ago, following the 2015 season, I updated that post.

Today? I wanted to provide another quick update. Jason Witten completed his age 33 season in 2015. And here’s the killer stat: nobody in NFL history has more receptions through their age 33 season than Jason Witten.

Larry Fitzgerald (who, like Witten, entered the NFL at 21, was productive as a rookie and a Pro Bowler at 22) is a year younger than Witten and has passed him on the “receptions through age 33” list. But that’s Larry Fitzgerald, who not only is a future Hall of Famer but also a wide receiver. Witten didn’t slow down much the last two years, either: he ranks 2nd all-time behind Fitzgerald in receptions through age 35. [continue reading…]

In the early game on Thanksgiving back in 2013, the Lions obliterated the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers, 40-10. Matthew Stafford threw for over 300 yards, Calvin Johnson gained over 100 receiving yards, and Reggie Bush rushed 20 times for 117 yards. Heck, backup Joique Bell nearly joined him in the century club, with 17 carries for 94 yards.

Since then, the Lions have played in 68 games without having a 100-yard rusher: Detroit is one game away from tying the ’88-’93 Browns for the second longest streak in history without a 100-yard rusher, and five games away from setting a new record. The current mark is held by the 1960s Washington Redskins, who went 72 games without a 100-yard rusher until Bobby Mitchell on October 1, 1967 ended the streak. [continue reading…]

As I noted on Wednesday, the 2018 NFL Draft was a very weak one for wide receivers. The first common NFL Draft between the AFL and NFL was in 1967, which means the 2018 Draft marked the 52nd draft in the common era. In 47 of the first 51 drafts, at least one wide receiver went in the top 23, but it wasn’t until the 24th pick in the ’18 Draft that a wide receiver — Maryland’s D.J. Moore to Carolina — was selected. The graph below shows where the first wide receiver was taken in each draft:

Just because it’s a weak wide receiver class, though, doesn’t mean this will be a bad class. And the fact that Moore lasted so long isn’t a bad sign, either. There have been 7 other times that the first wide receiver went with the 7th pick or later, and those wide receivers were Haywood Jeffires, Lynn Swann, Demaryius Thomas, Stanley Morgan, Santonio Holmes, Alexander Wright, and Donnie Avery.

The graph below shows the draft value, The graph shows the amount of draft value spent on wide receivers in each draft from 1967 to 2018.  As you can see, with 2018 excepted, the amount of draft capital being spent on wide receivers is up significantly over the last five decades, in stark contrast to the situation at running back:

In fact, let’s compare running backs (in red) and wide receivers (in blue) in the same graph.  The red line shows the draft capital spent on running backs in each draft from ’67 to ’18, with the dotted red line being the trend line (down).   The blue line shows the same for wide receivers, with the dotted blue line showing the trend line.  Side by side, it’s a pretty interesting graph:

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

Today’s post is a re-post from friend of the program Bryan Frye’s site, which is being republished with his permission and encouragement. As regular readers know, Bryan operates his own fantastic site, http://www.thegridfe.com. You can view all of Bryan’s guest posts here, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle. Enjoy!

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Born March 26, 1960 in San Diego, California, Marcus Allen knew from a young age he was a special talent. During neighborhood football games, he was always several steps ahead of everyone else. He preferred playing defensive back and aspired to be like his hero Lem Barney, but he also spent time in his backyard trying to emulate the running style of Browns legend Leroy Kelly. That time paid dividends when Abraham Lincoln High School coaches Vic Player and Roy Reed decided to make Allen a two-way player, starting him at quarterback. Although Allen was recruited to the University of Southern California to play safety, head coach John Robinson saw enough to Allen’s rushing ability on tape to move him to running back.

He began his college career as a backup for star tailback Charles White. He excelled in limited action, helping the Trojans win a national title as a freshman. The following year, in an effort to maximize the talent on the field, running backs coach John Jackson moved Allen to the fullback position, where he would block for White, as well as have more opportunities to carry the ball. Allen proved to be a proficient and determined blocker, helping pave the way for White to gain 1,803 rushing yards and take home the Heisman Trophy in 1979.

When Allen finally got his chance to carry the load as the team’s primary starter, he proved himself one of the best backs in the nation. He gained 1,794 yards and scored 15 touchdowns as a junior, but that was just a preview of what the talented tailback could do on the field. As a senior, in 1981, Allen put on a masterful all-around performance. He eclipsed 200 rushing yards in eight of eleven games ^[1]Treating post-season/bowls separately, as does the Heisman Trust. on his way to becoming the first player to run for over 2,000 yards in a single season. Combined with his contribution as a receiver, Allen led the nation with 2,559 yards ^[2]He added an additional 124 yards in a Rose Bowl loss to Penn State. and 23 touchdowns, earning the Heisman Trophy in the process. ^[3]He also took home the Maxwell Award and the Walter Camp Award.

Following a decorated career at USC, Allen was drafted tenth overall to the Los Angeles Raiders in the 1982 NFL Draft. Amidst a tumultuous season in which a players strike reduced the schedule to just nine games, the 22 year old rookie thrived. He started strong, picking up 180 yards and a touchdown in his first ever game as a pro. He built on that success and, ultimately, led the league in both yards and scoring while helping the Raiders to an NFL-best 8-1 record. Despite suffering an upset loss to the Jets in the divisional round of the playoffs, Raiders faithful knew they had found a special talent in Allen.

In his second year, he proved to be a dynamic weapon, picking up 1,604 yards on 266 carries and a career-high 68 receptions. He even completed four of seven passes for 111 yards and three scores. Those were solid numbers, but they weren’t enough to garner Allen as much as a Pro Bowl nod. It was the postseason where he built his legacy. En route to trouncing every team on the Raiders’ schedule, Allen gained 584 yards and scored five touchdowns. This included one of the great highlights in Super Bowl history against the favored Washington juggernaut. After his defense stopped John Riggins on a 4th and 1, Allen drove the final nail in the coffin with the signature run of his storied career: a sure stop for a loss that he turned into a 74 yard touchdown jaunt through the heart of the Washington faithful. He earned the Super Bowl MVP award for his efforts.

The following season, he continued to prove his versatility, gaining 758 receiving yards to complement his 1,168 rushing yards. He also led the league with 18 touchdowns. He then outdid himself just a year later. The 1985 season was Allen’s finest as a pro. He rushed for a league-high 1,759 yards and gained a then-record 2,314 yards from scrimmage. ^[4]A record he held until Barry Sanders gained 2,358 in 1997. His prolific production behind an unheralded offensive line earned him the Most Valuable Player award from the Associated Press and the Pro Football Writers Association. In winning MVP honors, Allen became the only player in history to win an NCAA National Championship, a Heisman Trophy, a Super Bowl, and be named Super Bowl MVP and a league MVP.

Unfortunately, the success of his MVP performance did not carry over into the following season. After topping 100 yards on the ground in the first two games, Allen suffered a nagging ankle injury that diminished his effectiveness for the rest of the year. He would not gain 100 yards on the ground again that season and, in fact, would only top the century mark in six more games in his career. Although he played in 13 games, he lacked the game-changing ability that once defined him. The low point of the season came in week 13 against the Eagles: driving to set up a game-winning field goal in overtime, Allen lost a fumble that was returned 81 yards to set up a Randall Cunningham touchdown run. Some observed this was the turning point in Allen’s career with the Raiders.

In 1987, a players strike saw one game removed from the league schedule and another three played primarily by replacement players. To the displeasure of Raiders owner Al Davis, Allen never crossed the picket line. When it ended, Allen returned from the strike to contend with Davis signing college football legend and professional baseball player Bo Jackson to play running back during the latter part of the season. Although this initially resulted in a timeshare at halfback, Allen ultimately volunteered to play fullback and use his blocking prowess to clear holes for Jackson. This allowed head coach Tom Flores to fully exploit his talented stable of backs, but it also meant significantly fewer carries for Allen. It was a sign of things to come.

Over the next three seasons, Allen would carry the burden of the team’s rushing attack for the first half of the season, knowing he would have to relinquish the role to a part-time football player for the latter part of the year. He threw key blocks for the younger back, threatened opposing defenses as a receiver, often played injured, and led his team by example in the locker room. Even after Jackson suffered a career-ending hip injury, Davis brought in veterans Roger Craig and Eric Dickerson to take the leading role. It wasn’t until 1993, when he was 33 years old, that he was able to get a fresh start and a starting job for a new team.

After being pursued by Chiefs head coach Marty Schottenheimer, Allen joined fellow veteran expat Joe Montana in Kansas City. He repaid his coach’s faith by playing five more years and scoring 47 more touchdowns, including a league-leading 12 rushing scores in his first year with the team. Although age and injury had taken their toll on Allen’s physical abilities, he maintained the mental toughness and innate ability to play football. Schottenheimer would later say: “If God put one person on this earth to be a professional football player it would have been Marcus Allen… He was the most instinctive, natural football player that I have ever been around.” ^[5]From A Football Life: Marcus Allen.

By the time he retired at the age of 38, he had played in more games (220) and scored more touchdowns (145) than any running back to that point in history. Some focus solely on his career arc and write him off as a compiler who only produced big numbers because he played for a long time. That is simply not the case. On account of the strike his rookie year, his first four seasons comprised just 57 regular season games. Compared with every player in history through the same number of games, Allen ranks fifth in yards from scrimmage (6942). ^[6]Behind Eric Dickerson, Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, and LaDainian Tomlinson. Thanks to injuries, strikes, and Davis’s eccentricity, after those first four years, he never played another full season with a starter’s workload.

His uncanny knack for finding the end zone contributed significantly to his long career. As an elder statesman, he was used as the Chiefs’ primary goal line threat. Even when banished to Davis’s doghouse, Allen still got the nod from coaches in critical situations. Consequently, he was able to pick up 18 of his 123 rushing touchdowns during his last four seasons with the team, despite averaging fewer than eight carries per game over that span. It speaks volumes that coaches were willing to disregard ownership in order to get Allen on the field. But it wasn’t just his coaches who valued him; his teammates thought enough of him to vote him team MVP four times between 1984 and 1988, despite his reduced role as a ball carrier.

Despite missing time and feuding with the owner, Allen remained productive when on the field. He was a talented enough receiver that draft analysts thought he might be switched to wide receiver coming out of college. They were on to something. At the time he retired, Allen ranked 22nd among all players, and first among running backs, with 587 career receptions. He was also the first player ever to rush for over 10,000 yards and gain over 5,000 yards receiving in a career. Twenty years later, only Marshall Faulk and Tiki Barber have joined that club. ^[7]Only Faulk has more of both.

Allen played a full season’s worth of playoff games. In those 16 games, he had 267 carries for 1,347 yards (5.0 YPC) and 11 touchdowns. He added 53 receptions for 530 yards and two touchdowns. A season of 1,877 yards and 13 touchdowns is even more impressive when you consider that nine of those games came after Allen turned 30.

He also used his quarterback pedigree to benefit his teams in the NFL. Over the course of his career, he completed 12 of 27 passes for 282 yards and six touchdowns. These weren’t typical goal line gadget plays you’d expect to see from a running back; they were largely plays with the same degree of difficulty you’d assign to a quarterback.

That kind of versatility earned him admiration from coaches across the league. In a 1985 article, the Los Angeles Times asked several NFL coaches to rate contemporary running backs. Despite a presumed lack of speed leaving him ranked as the ninth-best pure runner, the panel thought enough of the rest of his game to rank him (tied with Walter Payton) as the best all-around running back.

We’ve established that Allen was a natural runner, punishing blocker, talented receiver, and, when called upon, a decent passer. As important to his legacy as his prodigious on-field accomplishments, however, may be his strength of character.

Davis valued loyalty and reportedly considered Allen’s refusal to cross sides during the strike, as well as his frequent holdouts, as personal betrayals. As an act of retribution, Allen believed, Davis refused to release or trade him, instead preferring to let him sacrifice his body as a 205 pound blocking back. It was rumored that Davis instructed the coaching staff not to play him and even went as far as warning quarterback Jay Schroeder not to look to him on pass plays. Despite knowingly fighting an uphill battle, the star running back didn’t create tension in the locker room and, in fact, was universally respected by his peers.

Even after filing an antitrust suit against the NFL (helping pave the way for unrestricted free agency) and publicly lamenting that Davis robbed him of his prime, his teammates honored him with his fifth Commitment to Excellence Award. He was a steadfastly unselfish teammate, even at the expense of his own legacy, and the guys in the locker room recognized both his resilience and his leadership. To paraphrase Allen: You can’t pretend to be tough; either you are or you aren’t. Both mentally and physically, Marcus Allen was tough. He is also one of the all-time greats.

You will not be surprised to learn that Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia were the three schools that dominated the 2018 NFL Draft. Players from the Crimson Tide were taken using draft slots worth 83.9 points of value, the most of any school; second was Ohio State with 70.4 points of value, followed by Georgia (68.7), USC (55.7), and Penn State (54.5).

On the other hand, with the exception of the number one overall pick, the Big 12 has a pretty shaky draft. In fact, after Baker Mayfield, the next player selected from the Big 12 was Texas guard Connor Williams.  The graph below shows the AV used to select players from each conference in the 2018 Draft:

You probably aren’t surprised to see the SEC finished first among all conferences in draft value spent on its players. The ACC was second, thanks not to the current conference overlord in Clemson, but to…. North Carolina State, Louisville, and Virginia Tech!

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

Which positions did NFL teams focus on in the 2018 NFL Draft? We can use the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart to answer that question pretty easily for the first 224 picks (all picks after that have been excluded, since they have a draft value of zero). For example, here is how much Draft Value was spent on each quarterback taken:

Now, in the abstract that may not mean much: is 132.8 points a lot or a little? So we need to compare quarterbacks to all other positions. Longtime readers may recall that I crunched these numbers in 2016 and last year, but decided to switch the position designations this time around. For defense, I am combining 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers — basically anyone whose primary job is to be a pass rusher — into “Edge” players. I am also then combining DTs, NTs, and 3-4 DEs — i.e., all interior defenders — into the label “DT/DE” which excludes 4-3 defensive ends. For linebackers, I decided to just group all linebackers together, since 3-4 OLBs are already labeled as “Edge” players, and the differences between 3-4 ILBs, 4-3 OLBs, and MLBs is not worth separating. The graph below shows the amount of draft capital spent on all positions in the 2018 Draft: [continue reading…]

Running backs are some of the greatest athletes in the sport. From a BMI-to-athleticism ratio — which admittedly I’m making up as a thing — running backs are up there with any other position with the exception of defensive end, where some of those athletes look like they came from other planets.  When you think of the great running backs in NFL history, you think of the bruising power of an Earl Campbell, Larry Csonka, Jerome Bettis, or John Riggins, or the speed of a Barry Sanders, Gale Sayers, Chris Johnson, or Marshall Faulk or the unmatchable power/speed combination of an O.J. Simpson, Jim Brown, Adrian Peterson, or Bo Jackson.

And yet, we all seem to understand that the great running back is fading from the NFL.  Le’Veon Bell still can’t get his long-term contract, and Devonta Freeman is the second highest paid running back with a contract paying him $8.25M per year.  And it’s not just free agent running backs that are struggling: draft capital being spent on running backs is still on the decline, although the 2018 Draft (which was regarded as very running back heavy) had a bit of a rebound. [continue reading…]

Yesterday is one of my favorite posts — with just one picture, you can see why NFL teams have become more pass-heavy over the last 70 years. It is not debatable that the NFL is more pass-happy now than it used to be: teams really are throwing more often than ever before.

However, what is debatable is whether or not the increase in quantity makes passing more important than ever before. The correlation between ANY/A and winning percentage doesn’t show that passing matters more now than it did in the ’70s. This is because passing efficiency is more compressed now than it used to be, which arguably makes having a great quarterback less important now than ever before.

Lest you think that claim is crazy, note that the starting quarterback for every Super Bowl champion in the ’70s is now in the Hall of Fame: Johnny Unitas (with a hat tip to Earl Morrall), Roger Staubach, Bob Griese (with a hat tip to Earl Morrall), Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Bradshaw, Ken Stabler, Staubach, Bradshaw, and Bradshaw. Heck, 6 of the 10 losing quarterbacks in those games are Hall of Famers: Fran Tarkenton three times, Staubach twice, and Griese, with Craig Morton appearing twice, too.

The graph below shows the standard deviation among all teams in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (the single best measure of passing efficiency) for each team since the merger.  As you can see, the variance is declining, which means the best passing teams aren’t standing out quite as far from average as they used to: [continue reading…]

In 2017, NFL teams completed 10,856 passes. They also threw 17,488 passes and took 1,195 sacks (totaling 18,683 dropbacks). That means NFL teams completed passes on 58% of all dropbacks — let’s call this adjusted completion percentage, since unlike regular completion percentage, it includes sacks in the denominator.

NFL teams also rushed 13,755 times relative to those 18,683 dropbacks. That means NFL teams passed (including sacks) on 58% of all plays. Let’s call this number the league pass ratio.

The fact that the adjusted completion percentage and pass ratio were the same in 2017 was not a coincidence. In 1981, the league-wide adjusted completion percentage was a lot lower at 51%.  That year, the league-wide pass ratio was also 51%.

In 1971, the adjusted completion percentage was 47 percent, while the pass ratio was 46 percent.

In 1962, the adjusted completion percentage was 49% and the pass ratio was 49%.

In other words, the adjusted completion percentage — which measures how often a pass play results in a completion — and the frequency with which teams pass are highly correlated and also nearly identical.  The graph below shows, in dark blue, the league average adjusted completion percentage, and in red, the league average pass ratio, for each year since 1950. [continue reading…]

As we expected, five quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 2018 Draft.

• Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (College Stats), went 1st to the Browns.
• Sam Darnold, Southern California (College Stats), went 3rd to the Jets.
• Josh Allen, Wyoming (College Stats), went 7th to the Bills.
• Josh Rosen, UCLA (College Stats), went 10th to the Cardinals.
• Lamar Jackson, Louisville (College Stats), went 32nd to the Ravens.

Where does the first QB go in the average draft? What about the fifth? Let’s investigate, by looking at all drafts since the first modern draft in 1967.

The first quarterback, on average, was selected with the 9th overall pick from 1967 to 2017.  But that’s heavily skewed: the median selection from ’67 to ’17 was the 3rd overall pick, and the modal selection was the first overall pick (22 times, and now 23).

The graph below shows where the first quarterback was drafted in each draft since 1967:

[continue reading…]

As I did last season, here is a recap of the trades from the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

1)

Bucs trade: 7th overall, 255th overall
Bills trade: 12th overall, 53rd, and 56th

This was not a cheap trade for the Bills: Buffalo traded 127 cents on the dollar on the JJ Chart and 167 cents on the dollar on the FP chart.  Buffalo traded up for a QB, of course: Wyoming’s Josh Allen (College Stats). The Bills paid a premium to get their quarterback, but this was no surprise.  Buffalo entered the draft with a ton of draft capital, and it was no secret that the Bills wanted a quarterback.  This trade made sense from that perspective, but it doesn’t mean Buffalo didn’t pay a lot to get their man (particularly given the next trade).

2)

Raiders trade: 10th overall
Cardinals trade: 15th overall, 79th overall, 152nd overall

Arizona wanted a quarterback, and Rosen might have been the best quarterback in the entire draft.  The Cardinals were surely ecstatic to see Rosen fall to 10, and pounced on him.  Even better, Arizona didn’t pay much in the way of premiums: the Cardinals paid less than 100 cents on the dollar (98, to be exact) on the JJ chart, and 135 on my chart, to move up for Rosen.

3)

Packers trade: 14th overall
Saints trade: 27th overall, 147th overall, and 2019 1st round pick

New Orleans moves up 13 spots and sends… a fifth round pick and a future first! If you value the future first round pick as equivalent to say, the 24th overall pick (and don’t have a time value of money discount), the Saints paid 132 cents on the dollar on the JJ chart, and 173 cents on the dollar on my chart.  If you value the future first as the 16th overall pick (and don’t have a time value of money discount), they spent 156 cents on the dollar on the JJ chart and 187 cents on the dollar on the Football Perspective chart.

Thought of another way, using my chart, if we value the 2019 1st round pick as equal to the 26th overall pick, the Saints gave up the equivalent of the 2nd overall pick! That was quite a lot to draft UTSA defensive end Marcus Davenport, who you may recall from his performance in the 40-yard dash.  The Saints are clearly in win-now mode, and are willing to pay a premium to squeeze out every ounce of talent on the 2018 team. [continue reading…]

There is no such thing as safe quarterback prospect, at least in this year’s draft.  There are five marquee prospects, with scouts and draftniks coming away with very different views on them. They are, of course

• Sam Darnold, Southern California (College Stats)
• Josh Rosen, UCLA (College Stats)
• Lamar Jackson, Louisville (College Stats)
• Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (College Stats)
• Josh Allen, Wyoming (College Stats)

For months, it seemed like Darnold and Rosen were the top two prospects, Allen (huge size, great arm, poor accuracy) and Mayfield (great stats, efficient, but undersized and a B12 QB) were the wildcards, and Jackson was the real wildcard (Heisman Trophy winner, great stats, unmatched athleticism, but questions about his pro QB ability).

And now, with the draft hours away, we still don’t know much. Jackson probably will be the fifth quarterback taken. Allen, who as recently as a week ago was becoming the favorite to go first overall, will probably be the third or fourth man taken. Allen, on most boards on #DraftTwitter, is the worst of the group, but it’s always been impossible to tell what NFL scouts actually think of him (not to mention NFL non-scouts). Darnold and Allen almost seem cut from a video game: they are your prototypical successful Pac-12 QBs who are smart with good arms and size. They also don’t seem to excite too many people, although the upside is certainly there with Darnold (still just 20 years old) and Rosen (probably the smartest of the bunch).

And then you have Mayfield.

[continue reading…]

The broad jump isn’t the sexiest of drills, but it is another good way to measure a player’s all-around athletic ability. As a rule of thumb, the drill is biased in favor of lighter players (who can jump farther since they weigh less), but it’s also biased towards taller players, who have longer legs. Therefore, to adjust for weight and height, we use the following formula:

Broad Jump = 84.14 + 1.0766 * Height (Inches) – 0.1940 * Weight (Pounds)

Virginia Tech linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is expected to be a high first round pick, but his brother Terrell — a safety with the Hokies — was the combine champion at this event.  Standing 6’2, 220 pounds, Edmunds has prototypical safety size and is an elite athlete.  He had the 5th-best weight adjusted vertical, as he jumped a combine-high 41.5 inches.  In the broad jump, he would be expected to leap 121.1 inches based on his height and weight; in reality, he jumped 134 inches, or 12.9 inches above expectation.  That was the best mark at the 2018 combine.

The full results, below: [continue reading…]

Penn State RB Saquon Barkley is your bronze champion. The star athlete ranked 3rd in the bench press after adjusting for weight and height, with his 29 reps tied for the most by any running back. And he ranked 3rd in the 40-yard dash after adjusting for weight; his 4.40 time was the second fastest among running backs, and the only player faster weighed 35 fewer pounds.

And today, you’ll see that Barkley ranked third in the vertical jump, too. The best-fit formula for projecting the vertical jump is as follows:

Projected VJ = 46.38 – 0.0597 * weight (pounds)

At 233 pounds, Barkley would be expected to have a 32.5 inch vertical jump. In reality, he jumped 41 inches, or 8.5 inches above expectation. That was the third-best mark at the combine, but only the 2nd best among Nittany Lions. That’s because Penn State TE Mike Gesicki jumped 41.5 inches at a whopping 247 pounds, or 9.9 inches above expectation.  The 40/240 club — jumping at least 40 inches while weighing at least 240 pounds — is a small one, and Gesicki stands out as being an elite athlete.

But it’s hard to compete with Barkley, who was dominant at the combine in the bench press, the 40, and the vertical jump. The full list, below: [continue reading…]

In 2013, Cordarrelle Patterson led the NFL in kickoff return average at 32.4, with 1,393 yards and 2 TDs on 43 kickoff returns.

In 2015, Patterson again led the league in return average at 31.8, this time with 1,019 yards and two scores on 32 returns.

In 2016, Patterson repeated as kickoff returner champion, averaging 31.7 yards per return on 25 returns.

In 2017, Patterson was on the verge of a three-peat. Through 14 games, Patterson was averaging 28.3 yards per kickoff return, giving him a slight lead on Rams returner Pharoh Cooper.

And over the last two weeks of the season, Cooper saw his kickoff return average drop, while Patterson had one more return for 29 yards. Therefore, Patterson must have threepeated in the category of average kickoff return, right?

Well, not exactly. Through 14 games, Patterson had 18 returns, or 1.29 per team game. He finished the year with 19 returns, or 1.19 per team game. The problem is that the minimum number of kickoff returns to qualify for the league crown is 1.25 per team game. So Patterson failed to qualify by one return; if he had returned one additional kickoff for even 11 yards, he would have three-peated.

Patterson had 19 of the Raiders 34 kickoff returns. The real problem is the era: we are no longer in an era where the minimum should be 1.25 kickoff returns per team game. Why? Last year, just 12 players qualified! In 2010, there were 39 players who qualified, but in 2017, the limit would have needed to be dropped to single digits to get 39 players qualifying for that crown.

So what happened? Well, before the 2011 season, the NFL moved the kickoff from the 30 to the 35-yard line, which resulted in more touchbacks and fewer kickoff returns. And before the 2016 season, the NFL moved the starting field position after a touchback from the 20 up to the 25-yard line. Combined, those two changes have had quite the impact on the number of kickoff returns. The graph below shows the number of kickoff returns had by the average team in each season since 1950, with non-16 game seasons prorated to 16 games. [continue reading…]

The 2013 Draft was not supposed to be a very good one. All you need to know: an offensive tackle from a MAC school, Eric Fisher, was the number one pick in a draft that was considered weak at the top.  You might think that pick was a bust, but… by 2013 standards, it was not.  Fisher has been a five-year starter and sneaks into the top 10 in AV from players in that draft!  That in itself is pretty remarkable, as Fisher hasn’t sniffed a Pro Bowl, but in a weak class, being a five-year starter at an important position let him rack up the AV.

The top player from that draft has been RB Le’Veon Bell, with two OL (David Bakhtiari and Travis Frederick) and a player about to join his third team (Sheldon Richardson) the next three players by AV.

How does the 2013 Draft compare to other drafts through five years? Because of the different number of picks in each draft, I decided to only examine the first 32 picks in each draft. The graph below shows the cumulative AV (through 5 seasons, regardless of whether they switched teams) provided by all players selected in the top 32 of each draft. [continue reading…]

Recency bias and ever-escalating statistics has led many modern fans to claim that the passing game today is more important than ever. That’s not really true.

But I decided to run another experiment (and check the 2017 data) on the importance of the passing game. I measured the correlation coefficient between winning percentage and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt in 2017; it was 0.71, which indicates a very strong positive relationship. This is what you would expect: as ANY/A increases, so does winning percentage. Last year, the Saints, Patriots, Chargers, Rams, and Chiefs were the top 5 teams in ANY/A, and they combined for 54 wins and a 0.675 winning percentage. The bottom 5 teams in ANY/A? Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, Baltimore, and Miami, who combined for just 26 wins and a 0.325 winning percentage.

So ANY/A was correlated with winning percentage in 2017, but that’s not too unusual. From 1974 to 1977, the correlation between the two measures was 0.75 or higher each year. There’s some random variation each year, but on average, the correlation coefficient has been about 0.66. Take a look: [continue reading…]

The color-coded schedule is back!

Download the Excel file here

Some notes:

As usual, the games are color-coded based on time: Thursday (the Thanksgiving slate is week 12, with Detroit/Chicago as the early game, Dallas/Washington in the afternoon, and Atlanta/New Orleans at night) games are in light red, Saturday games are in gray, Sunday games at 1PM have no color, Sunday afternoon games are in orange, Sunday night games are in green, and Monday night games are in blue.

There are four international games: in week 6, the Seahawks and Raiders (as the home team) play in London at 1PM Eastern. In weeks 7 and 8, the Titans and Chargers (home team) and then Eagles and Jaguars (home team) play in London at 9:30 AM on the east coast. In week 11, the Chiefs and Rams (home team) play in Mexico City on Monday Night Football. That game is color-coded in blue for Monday Night, but with yellow font for international. Yes, my schedule grid has an easter egg.

There are 17 MNF games. In week 1, the Jets and Lions are the early Monday Night game at 7:10, with the Rams and Raiders kicking off that night at 10:20. There is no Monday Night game in week 17.

There are two Saturday games, both in week 15: the Texans at the Jets and the Browns at the Broncos. No times have been set just yet. In addition, there will be two games on Saturday in week 16, but those will be announced during the season.

Last year, Auburn defensive end Carl Lawson was your bench press champion. He finished ever so slightly ahead of Myles Garrett, and while Garrett was the first overall pick in the 2017 Draft, Lawson was a fourth rounder. But in 2017, Lawson led all rookies with 8.0 sacks, while Garrett finished second with 7.0 sacks (he did lead all rookies with 0.63 sacks per game). So does the bench press mean much? Who knows, but that won’t stop me from crunching the data from the 2018 combine.

The best-fit formula to project bench press reps for the 2017 Combine was:

Expected BP reps = 17.401 -0.3354 * Height (Inches) + 0.1075 * Weight (Pounds)

I used that formula to run through the 2018 combine numbers. The result? Georgia RB Nick Chubb was your bench press champion. Penn State RB Saquon Barkley, who ranked 3rd in yesterday’s results on the 40-yard dash, had another third-place finish. The full results, below.

What stands out to you? Other than Orlando Brown finishing at the bottom for the second day in a row.

UTSA defensive end Marcus Davenport is a likely first round pick who should be one of the more interesting stories of the draft’s opening night. He is also, pound for pound, the fastest man in the draft.

Last year, I used the following formula to project estimated 40-yard dash times based on weight:

Estimated 40-yard dash time = 3.283 + 0.00606 x weight (lbs)

Davenport weighted 264 pounds in Indianapolis, which would give him a projected time of 4.88 seconds.  But Davenport ran the 40 in a blistering 4.58 seconds, a remarkable 0.30 seconds faster than expected for a man of his size.

Georgia linebacker Lorenzo Carter weighed in at 250 pounds, and he ran the 40 in just 4.50 seconds! That’s also 0.30 seconds faster than the weight-influenced expectation of 4.80 for a man of his size. Davenport and Carter ran the two fastest 40-yard dashes after adjusting for weight at the combine. Coming in third? Perhaps the first non-QB off the board in the 2018 Draft, Penn State RB Saquon Barkley. [continue reading…]

DeAndre Hopkins had a All-Pro year for the Houston Texans, who went 4-12 in a season defined by injuries. But week in, week out, the Texans could rely on Hopkins. In fact, he led the team in receiving yards in 13 of the first 15 games of the season, before sitting out the final week 17 game.

On the other side of the ledger, we have the Browns. Cleveland had 8 different players (Corey Coleman, Rashard Higgins, Duke Johnson, Ricardo Louis, Kasen Williams, David Njoku, Isaiah Crowell, and Seth Devalve) lead the team in receiving yards during its first 9 games!  Coleman led the team in receiving yards in games 10 and 11, and then Josh Gordon returned and led the Browns in receiving yards in 4 of the final 5 games of the season. Cleveland was one of just three teams that didn’t have a player lead the team in receiving yards in more than 4 games: [continue reading…]

The 2017 Cleveland Browns went 0-16, a season the franchise would like to forget. The team’s best offensive player was running back Isaiah Crowell, who shouldered a very large percentage of the team’s rushing workload – at least among running backs. Quarterback DeShone Kizer finished second on the team in rushing yards, while backup running back Duke Johnson was the team’s leader in targets, receptions, and receiving yards — and it wasn’t particularly close.

One thing that was notable about Crowell’s season: among Browns running backs, Crowell was the leader in rushing yards in all 16 games. Four other teams had one player lead the team’s running backs in rushing in 15 of 16 games: the Rams with Todd Gurley, the Steelers with Le’Veon Bell, the Chiefs with Kareem Hunt, and the Colts with Frank Gore.  Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City all made the players and rested starters in week 17; Gurley, Bell, and Hunt led their teams in rushing in each of the first 15 team games of the season.  As for Indianapolis, Gore led the team in rushing each week with one notable exception: against the 49ers, Marlon Mack rushed 9 times for 91 yards, while Gore had 14 carries for only 48 yards against his former team.  Save that for the revenge game narrative.

We talk a lot about how running back by committee is retaking the league after the stud running back era of the mid-’00s.  Last year, for 15 of the league’s 32 teams, one running back led the team in rushing in 75% of their team’s games.  I’m not quite sure whether this is the best or even the right way to measure RBBC, but I do think it’s a useful balancing act against other, typical measures.

The table below shows, for each team, how many games one RB led all team running backs in rushing: [continue reading…]

Over the last 20 drafts, there have been 101 players selected from the University of Alabama: [continue reading…]

From 1973 to 1980, #88 on the Cowboys, Drew Pearson, was 22-29 years old. During that time, he:

• Made 3 Pro Bowls and earned 3 AP first-team All-Pro honors
• Ranked 3rd in receiving yards
• Ranked 3rd in receptions
• Ranked tied for 11th in receiving touchdowns
• Played on a team that ranked 11th in pass attempts (mostly 26 teams)
• Won a Super Bowl

From 1988 to 1995, #88 on the Cowboys, Michael Irvin, was 22-29 years old. During that time, he:

• Made 5 Pro Bowls and earned 1 AP first-team All-Pro honor
• Ranked 3rd in receiving yards
• Ranked 6th in receptions
• Ranked 7th in receiving touchdowns
• Played on a team that ranked 18th in pass attempts (30 teams)
• Won three Super Bowls

From 2010 to 2017, #88 on the Cowboys, Dez Bryant, was 22-29 years old. During that time, he:

• Made 3 Pro Bowls and earned 1 AP first-team All-Pro honor
• Ranked 8th in receiving yards
• Ranked tied for 12th in receptions
• Ranked 2nd in receiving touchdowns
• Played on a team that ranked 21st in pass attempts (32 teams)

Bryant continued the rich tradition of Cowboy wide receivers wearing 88 to turn into stars.  He also may continue another Cowboys wide receiver tradition: being very, very good, but not quite Hall of Fame good.  In addition to Pearson, consider another Hall of Fame outsider: [continue reading…]

There is no more polarizing quarterback prospect in this year’s draft than Wyoming’s Josh Allen. The buzz is getting louder that the Browns will select Allen with the first overall pick; the more analytically inclined observers think that would be a disaster. In some minds, Allen doesn’t even project as a first round pick.

Allen has a significant amount of bust potential but traditional quarterback size and one of the greatest arms you’ll ever see. That has naturally led to some comparisons to two of the biggest draft busts in recent memory: Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell.

But a comparison to Leaf, Russell, and don’t make much sense. That’s because those guys were stars in college. Here is what Leaf did in his final season: he was extremely efficient despite easily leading the Pac-10 in passing attempts.  He averaged 9.7 yards per pass and lapped the Pac-10 in passing yards and touchdowns, ranking second in efficiency only to another future first round pick:

And Russell? Well, he led the SEC in Y/A and AY/A and also completion percentage in his final season.  He had fantastic rate stats and gross stats playing in the toughest conference in football, on top of being an incredible physical specimen.

[continue reading…]