With Kirk Cousins now in town, Minnesota is perhaps the most talented team in the NFL. But the Vikings are in a loaded NFC, with the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, a Saints team that was the most efficient in football in 2017 and was seconds away from beating the Vikings in Minnesota in the playoffs, and a dreamy team in Los Angeles.  Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is back, making another NFC North title no sure thing.

Four years ago, Andrew Healy wrote about the most/least lucky teams when it comes to winning rings. At the time, the Eagles were the most unlucky franchise, but Philadelphia has since won a Super Bowl!  The Vikings were the second most unlucky team, while the Giants and Steelers were the two luckiest teams.

I like Andrew’s methodology and I’m not going to improve on it today, but wanted to run a simpler and quicker study.  In each seasons since the Super Bowl era, count how many games above .500 each team was in each season.  Seasons with .500 or worse records were given a zero.  So the Vikings were +10 in 2017 (13-3), 0 in 2016 (8-8), +6 in 2015 (11-5), 0 in 2014 (7-9), and so on. Since 1966, Minnesota has been +162, with +70 of that coming from 1966 to 1978. [continue reading…]

An interesting article from Pro Football Weekly this week discusses that running backs are becoming more valuable in the draft, now that teams are going younger and cheaper at the position. After all, if you want a stud running back for cheap, you can only do it in the draft: we saw Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette each go fourth overall in the past two years, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Penn State RB Saquon Barkley go in that same position this year.

In addition, the article correctly points out that there were 30 running backs drafted last year, the most in any season since 1996.

In my mind, there are three essential components driving this turnaround: teams want to use running backs when they’re younger and still relatively fresh, they want them when they’re cheaper, and most importantly, with more teams employing some semblance of a strategic committee approach to their backfield hierarchy, they need more players at the position to ensure very little drop-off in performance from one back to the next.

However, that’s about where the argument ends. For starters, let’s look at draft capital spent on running backs during the common draft era: [continue reading…]

The Seahawks dominated the 2012 NFL Draft. Seattle drafted the best player, Russell Wilson, in the third round. The second most valuable pick of the draft was, by almost any measure, linebacker Bobby Wagner, a Hall of Fame candidate selected in the second round. The Seahawks even had one of the two or three best picks of the seventh round, in J.R. Sweezy.

And yet with its first pick in the draft, Seattle swung and missed on edge rusher Bruce Irvin, who played and started fewer games with the Seahawks than Sweezy.

The Redskins and Bucs had similar stories. Washington rolled snake eyes when it drafted RG3, although one could argue (depending on why you think he failed in D.C.) that his disappointing tenure with the Redskins wasn’t a fault of scouting. But the Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4th round and Alfred Morris in the 6th round — it was an extremely impressive draft once you forget the team’s first pick. Tampa Bay drafted a man without a position, safety/linebacker Mark Barron, with the seventh overall pick, and he lasted just 37 games with the team before being traded for 4th and 6th round picks. But the Bucs selected Doug Martin and Lavonte David with the team’s next two picks, and safety Keith Tandy was a good find (mostly on special teams) in the sixth round.

On the other side, you have the Panthers and Steelers. Carolina hit a home run with Luke Kuechly in the first round, but the Panthers next three picks have started just 37 games. The Panthers non-Kuechly portion of the draft was saved with Josh Norman in the sixth round, but even he only had one great year in Carolina.

Pittsburgh drafted an All-Pro in guard David DeCastro late in the first round, but the team’s next seven picks were disappointments. The Steelers final pick was OT Kelvin Beachum, a successful late round pick who started for two years in Pittsburgh. [continue reading…]

On Thursday, I went on Baskin & Phelps on 92.3 The Fan in Cleveland to discuss the Browns 2018 draft strategy, and whether it still makes sense for a team like the Browns to trade down.

You can listen to the full segment here.

This offseason, the Rams have traded for three high-profile players: WR Brandin Cooks (13 points of AV last year), CB Marcus Peters (13 points of AV in 2016, 5 points of AV last year), and CB Aqib Talib (14 points of AV in 2016, 9 points of AV last year).  Los Angeles also signed DT Ndamukong Suh (12 points of AV in 2016, 7 points last year).

That’s some top-level talent, at least on paper.  Suh was an AP first-team All-Pro in 2010, 2013, and 2014; the two All-Pro corners in 2016 by the Associated Press, Pro Football Writers Association, and the Sporting News were Talib and Peters. And Cooks is one of just three players to average 1,100 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns over the last three seasons.

And these four stars are joining perhaps the most star-studded team in the NFL:  the Rams had six first-team All-Pros as selected by the Associated Press last year: RB Todd Gurley, LT Andrew Whitworth, and DT Aaron Donald, along with special teamers Greg Zuerlein, Johnny Hekker, and Pharoh Cooper.  Oh, and by the way: QB Jared Goff led the NFL in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt last season. Los Angeles is in position to spend in free agency in part because the team’s stars are cheap: the Rams drafted Donald in 2014 (with the team’s second first round pick, after drafting the biggest bust with its first selection), Gurley in 2015, and Goff in 2016, so all three players are being paid well below market value.

So, will the Rams really be as good in real life as they appear on paper?  Los Angeles is adding four new players who had AVs of at least 12 points either last year or the year before.  It’s been 23 years since a team did that, and that team was… the 1994 San Francisco 49ers.  That offseason, they added CB Deion Sanders (AV of 12 in 1993), DE Richard Dent (AV of 12 in 1993), LB Ken Norton (AV of 15 in ’93), and LB Rickey Jackson (AV of 13 in ’93). The 49ers also added C Bart Oates (AV of 10 in ’93). The 49ers already had an incredible offense, and with a better defense — and a better performance against Dallas in the NFCCG — San Francisco finally won another Super Bowl.

In recent years, some other teams have added 4 players with 10 points of AV in the prior year (or two years prior). This includes the 2014 Broncos team that nearly won the Super Bowl but would win it a year later; Denver added DE/LB DeMarcus Ware, C Will Montgomery, S T.J. Ward, and … CB Aqib Talib.

The 2011 Eagles — aka The Dream Team — added CB Nnamdi Asomugha, WR Steve Smith (the bad one), DE Jason Babin, and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, in addition to backup QB Vince Young, who coined the name.

The 2009 Chiefs added QB Matt Cassel, LB Mike Vrabel, WR Chris Chambers, and G Mike Goff.

The 2008 Jets added G Alan Faneca, QB Brett Favre, LB Calvin Pace, and DT Kris Jenkins.

And the 2002 Redskins added LB Jeremiah Trotter, LB Jessie Armstead, OL Larry Moore, and WR Willie Jackson.

The only other teams in modern history: the ’96 Ravens (Eric Turner, Rob Burnett, Tony Jones, and Leroy Hoard), the ’94 Chiefs (Greg Kragen, Eric Martin, Jerrol Williams, and Mark Collins), and ’85 Bills (Joe DeLamielleure, Joe Cribbs, Mike Pruitt, and Vince Ferragamo).

Los Angeles is going all-in on its 2018 roster, which is admirable in many ways. It sure feels like Los Angeles is adding an unusual amount of blue chip talent, and based on these results, the Rams are in pretty rare company.

How do you think the Rams will fare?

Yesterday, I wrote that we are living in the golden age of NFL rookies.  I don’t think it’s controversial to state that — even after adjusting for era — five of the best six seasons by a rookie QB from 1970 to 2017 all came from active quarterbacks: Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Matt Ryan in 2008, Russell Wilson and RG3 in 2012, and Dak Prescott in 2016.  Note that this doesn’t even include Andrew Luck in 2012 (who actually got more ORotY votes than Wilson) because he had mediocre efficiency numbers, or Deshaun Watson in 2017 because he was limited to just seven games, or Vince Young 06, Andy Dalton 2011, Cam Newton 2011, and Jameis Winston in 2015, who, along with Marino, Wilson, Griffin, Luck, and Prescott, are the only rookie quarterbacks to make the Pro Bowl since the merger. Or Sam Bradford, who won AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, something no quarterback other than Marino did from 1971 to 2003.

So, what gives? The graph below shows all rookie passers since 1970 to start at least 8 games and throw at least 150 passes. On the X-Axis, the year; on the Y-Axis, the passer’s ANY/A+, which is on a scale where 100 equals NFL league average, 115 represents one standard deviation above average, and 130 represents two standard deviations above average. [continue reading…]

In December 2008, I wrote about the wonderful rookie seasons that Matt Ryan and, to a lesser extent, Joe Flacco, were having. I concluded that Ryan might very well finish with the greatest rookie season of all time. The only two rookie seasons (excluding “rookie” seasons that did not come immediately following the player’s final collegiate season) that came close since the merger were Dan Marino in 1984 and Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, and Ryan had them both beat on quantity (Marino started just 9 games, while Roethlisberger played for the most run-heavy team in the league).

Then, 2012 happened, when Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and RG3 all had great rookie seasons. Luck took a team from 2-14 to 11-5, set a rookie record for passing yards that still stands, and led the NFL with seven game-winning drives. He also was arguably the least-impressive of the trio. Griffin led the NFL in yards per attempt and in yards per carry. Wait just re-read that sentence again and let it sink in how remarkable that is. And then there was Wilson, who posted a 100.0 passer rating, led Seattle to an 11-5 record, and set a still-standing rookie record with 30 touchdowns.

In 2016, Dak Prescott basically out-Ryan’ed Ryan. His team went 13-3, Prescott set a rookie record with a 104.9 passer rating and 7.86 ANY/A. He had a 23/4 TD/INT ratio while also ranking 4th in NY/A.

And then last season, Deshaun Watson took the league by storm over seven games. Yes, it was only 7 games, but he produced 21 touchdowns and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt and a 103.0 passer rating. He also averaged 7.5 yards per carry and was certainly gearing up to be in the discussion for greatest rookie seasons in quarterback history.

[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I looked at how much the NFL was relying on highly-drafted passers. The answer: quite a bit, as 50% of passes were thrown by a quarterback drafted in the top 32 or top 18 in each of the last three years.

That is certainly significant, but it’s not groundbreaking, either. Allow me to transport you back to 1972. The NFL had 26 teams, and 14 of those teams had a starting quarterback drafted in the top 10 or earlier! This includes Archie Manning (Saints), John Hadl (Chargers), Jim Plunkett (Patriots), Craig Morton (Cowboys), Norm Snead (Giants), Joe Namath (Jets), Roman Gabriel (Rams), Terry Bradshaw (Steelers), Mike Phipps (Browns), Len Dawson (Chiefs), Dan Pastorini (Oilers), Steve Spurrier (on the 49ers along with top-5 pick John Brodie), Marty Domres (Colts), and Earl Morrall (on the Dolphins along with top-5 pick Bob Griese). ^[1]Complicating things a bit was before 1967, there were two drafts: one by the NFL, and one by the NFL. Hadl was drafted 10th overall in the NFL Draft, and in the third round of the AFL Draft. Morton … Continue reading

The non-top 10 picks that year that were starters included Fran Tarkenton, Ken Anderson, Daryle Lamonica, Billy Kilmer, and Johnny Unitas. It may not have been a great passing year because of the rules in place at the time, but it sure had a lot of great quarterbacks. This was an era of Hall of Fame quarterbacks, even if 1972 just missed both Bart Starr and Dan Fouts.

On the other end of the spectrum is the 2001 season. An undrafted Jon Kitna, playing for the Bengals, led the NFL in pass attempts. Brad Johnson (Tampa Bay), was third in attempts; Aaron Brooks (Saints) and Rich Gannon (Raiders) rounded out the top 5, and neither was drafted in the first three rounds.

Kurt Warner (Rams, undrafted), Chris Weinke (Panthers, 106th pick), Trent Green (Chiefs, 222nd), Doug Flutie (Chargers, 285th), and Jeff Garcia (49ers, undrafted) all had 500+ pass attempts. Mark Brunell (Jaguars, 118), Elvis Grbac (Ravens, 219), Jay Fiedler (Dolphins, undrafted), Tom Brady (Patriots, 1999) and Jim Miller (Bears, 178) were starters, too. And Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks, 187) and Alex Van Pelt (Bills, 216) led their teams in pass attempts, too. And backups in the NFC North (Ty Detmer, Shane Matthews, and Mike McMahon) combined for nearly a full season, too, and all were late round or undrafted quarterbacks.

If you sort each passer by draft order, you can see which draft pick is necessary to cross the 50% threshold. In 1972, you only had to go to the 10th pick; in other words, half of all passes that year came from players selected in the top 10 of the NFL or AFL Draft. In 2001, you had to go all the way down to pick 106. Over the last few years, the average is just north of the 20th overall pick.

The graph below shows the median passer (by draft slot) in each year since the merger: [continue reading…]

In 2017, there were seven former number one overall picks who were their team’s main quarterback: Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Cam Newton, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, and Carson Palmer. An eighth, Sam Bradford, was going to be the Vikings starter, but he was injured early in the season.

Three more starting QBs were second overall picks: Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, and Mitch Trubisky. And another three were top five picks (Matt Ryan, Blake Bortles, and Philip Rivers).

Had former 24th overall pick Aaron Rodgers played a full season, it’s likely that half of all passes thrown in 2017 would have come from players drafted 24th overall or earlier. With the Rodgers injury, the next passer (in terms of draft status) was Paxton Lynch (26th pick), who only threw 45 passes. Players drafted 26th or earlier were responsible for 49% of all passes in 2017. To cross the 50% mark, you need to drop down to 32nd overall, which brings in Drew Brees. Players drafted 32nd overall or earlier were responsible for 52% of all passes in 2017.

That number is down slightly from 2016, in large part because Sam Bradford and Andrew Luck combined for over 1,000 attempts in 2016 and just 43 last year. The NFL also lost over 500 combined attempts from Robert Griffin and Ryan Tannehill — as a result, in 2016, quarterbacks drafted 18th overall (Joe Flacco) or earlier were responsible for 52% of all passing attempts.

The Flacco line was also the line of demarcation in 2015, which was boosted by having Peyton Manning, Luck, Bradford, and Tannehill as starters relative to 2017. Depending on how this year’s draft goes and how early those quarterbacks start, there’s a good chance that the Flacco line is once again the median mark.

In fact, 2018 could have the 12th overall pick as the median mark, assuming good health (which, of course, is a terrible thing to assume).  But let’s assume that three out of Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield wind up as top 12 picks and starting quarterbacks, and let’s place them on the Browns, Jets, and Bills.   That would mean 18 of 32 starters would be top 12 picks.  We would also see 22 of the league’s 32 starters be top-18 draft picks, up from 16 a year ago.

How do we get there? [continue reading…]

The 2016 Bills had a pretty serious amount of roster turnover, particularly among players who went to new teams (rather than due to injury or because they were out of the league). Some, like wide receivers Marquise Goodwin, Robert Woods, and Sammy Watkins, had more success with their new teams. Others, like defenders Stephon Gilmore, Corey Graham, and Zach Brown, were better off in Buffalo.

There were 19 players who were on the 2016 Bills and played for a different team in 2017. In total, those players produced 62 points of AV in 2016 in Buffalo, and then 55 points of AV in 2017 not in Buffalo. The full list, below:

With 62 points of lost AV, no team lost more than the Bilsl last year. But that doesn’t always mean much: the Rams were third with 52 points of lost AV, and the Bills and Rams both made the postseason. Even looking at 2017 AV isn’t necessarily going to tell us much: the switching players produced 55 points outside of Buffalo, the most by former players of any team last year. Another way to look at it is to see how these players did outside of their old teams. And here, Bills players did worse outside of Buffalo, at -7 points of net AV. You might be surprised, tho, that I’m not sure if this tells us much, either: the Patriots and Jaguars were two of the four teams to see their former players produce 10+ points more AV in their new homes. For New England, Jacoby Brissett, Jabaal Sheard, LeGarrette Blount, Jimmy Garoppolo, Logan Ryan, and Barkevious Mingo all produced at least 4 points of AV in 2017 on new teams. The same is true of Kelvin Beachum, Hayes Pullard, Tyson Alualu, Luke Joeckel, Prince Amukamara, and Davon House with respect to the Jaguars. But it’s not like Jacksonville or New England was any worse for the wear.

The table below shows the lost AV for each team, along with the AV produced by those players in their new homes in 2017, and the net difference. [continue reading…]

The 2016 49ers were not very good, finishing 2-14 with both wins coming against a bad Rams team. So perhaps it isn’t too surprising that San Francisco — with a new GM (John Lynch) and new HC (Kyle Shanahan) — decided to turn over most of the roster.

Each team has 352 starts to give out each year (22 spots over 16 games). For San Francisco, 176 of them came from players who weren’t on the active roster in 2016, and 176 came from players who were. Take a look: [continue reading…]

You can hear me on the Bill Barnwell podcast today discussing the origins of the draft value chart, why the top picks are overvalued, and why it still might be a good idea to overpay to trade up in the draft.

Listen here or on iTunes.

Last season, Mitch Trubisky was the second overall pick, Patrick Mahomes went 10th overall, and Deshaun Watson was taken with the 12th selection.  It didn’t take long for Watson to start: after Tom Savage was the Texans week 1 starter, Watson replaced him after halftime and started the following week.

Trubisky sat behind Mike Glennon, who had just signed a contract with $18.5M of guaranteed money.  Glennon started for four games, and Trubisky sat the rest of the way.  Glennon has since been released, earning $18.5M while averaging 4.12 ANY/A in four starts.

As for Mahomes, he sat on the bench behind Alex Smith the entire season. Well, almost the entire year: Mahomes started the meaningless week 17 finale. But there was a good reason for his benching: Smith led the NFL in passer rating in 2017, although he’s since been traded to the Redskins.

Watson wasn’t a top-10 pick, of course, but with three (or four?) quarterbacks likely to go early in the top 10 of the 2018 draft — Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield — I wanted to see how early we should expect those quarterbacks to first start a game.

In the table below, I looked at all quarterbacks selected in the top 10 of the common draft (since 1967) and how many team games (treating all seasons as 16-game seasons) it took until their first start. [continue reading…]

There were 66 wide receivers last year who had salary cap hits of at least $2,000,000. Let’s exclude Julian Edelman, who missed the entire season due to injury, and the 18 wide receivers from the 2014-2017 Draft classes, who were all on rookie deals. That leaves 47 veteran wide receivers with cap hits of at least two million dollars last season.

I am also going to eliminate Tavon Austin from the discussion. His contract was so out of whack with reality that it only serves to bias the results in the direction of “there is not much correlation between receiving production and receiving salary.” Since I think the results in this study will find that the correlation is already pretty low between salary and production, my hunch is most people would naturally want to know how much things change (a decent amount, actually) if you remove Austin. He had the 4th-highest cap charge of any wide receiver last year and essentially zero production.

That leaves 46 veteran wide receivers. The R^2 between salary and receiving yards was 0.35 (0.25 if you include Austin), which sounds moderately high but in practice doesn’t mean much. Here’s the best fit formula:

2017 Receiving Yards = 308 + 53.0 * 2017 Salary Cap Charge (in millions)

What this means is that for every million dollars a team spent on a wide receiver last year, you would expect to get an extra 53 receiving yards. In other words, one receiving yard was worth $18,884. A wide receiver at $5M would be expected to produce 573 receiving yards; a wide receiver with a $10M cap charge should produce 838 receiving yards.

Big names like Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, and DeSean Jackson underperformed their lofty salaries last season. Meanwhile, Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, Marquise Goodwin, Kenny Stills, and Jermaine Kearse overperformed their mediocre salaries.

Is getting an extra 53 receiving yards really worth $1M? (If you include Austin, the best-fit formula is 349 + 44.3 * 2017 Salary Cap Charge, meaning you need to spend $1M to get just 44 more receiving yards). Well, part of the answer to that depends on what $1M gets you at other positions. This effect may not be linear, either. This is data snooping, but the players south of $8M appear much less correlated with salary; in other words, the difference between a $4M and an $8M player may be small, but the difference between an $8M player and a $12M player might be large.

This also doesn’t mean that elite wide receivers are overpaid.  Consider that Antonio Brown had a cap hit of $13.62M last year, which based on the formula above, means we would expect him to gain 1,029 receiving yards.  Since Brown had 1,533 receiving yards, he exceeded expectation by 504 yards.  That was the third most of any receiver: [continue reading…]

There were 66 wide receivers with salary cap hits of at least $2,000,000 in 2017, based on data from Over The Cap. There were 67 wide receivers in 2017 who had at least 700 Adjusted Catch Yards, which is receiving yards with a 20-yard bonus for touchdowns and a 5-yard bonus for catches (for reference, Jeremy Maclin with a 40-440-3 line is the cutoff here at exactly 700 ACY). In other words, I wanted to set a bar for both salary cap hits and production that was pretty low, but not so low that the data would be overpopulated with fringe players.

There were 89 wide receivers who had either cap hits of $2M or 700 ACY in 2017. The correlation coefficient between the two variables was 0.31, indicating a moderately positive correlation but nothing more. The graph below shows those wide receivers with salary cap dollars (in millions) on the Y-Axis, and Adjusted Catch Yards on the X-Axis. The most valuable receivers would be on the bottom right (low cap hit, high production) while the least valuable would be on the upper left (high cap hit, low production). [continue reading…]

It’s officially: as hinted at over the weekend, former Dolphin and Lions Ndamukong Suh has joined the Los Angeles Rams and will be playing alongside Aaron Donald.  Along with Michael Brockers, who has alternated between nose tackle and defensive end in the Rams 3-4 defense (after playing as a DT in the team’s 4-3 defense), the Rams now have the league’s most terrifying three-person defensive line.

On paper this is a tremendous signing, but there is some question over where Suh will line up and whether playing in a 3-4 defense alongside Donald really maximizes his value.  Which made me wonder: how often has a team had two former (or future) All-Pro defensive tackles? (Note: (the Eagles now have Haloti Ngata and Fletcher Cox, but Cox has “only” been a second-team All-Pro by the AP, although he was a first-team All-Pro in 2017 by the Sporting News and the Pro Football Writers Association).

It turns out, more often than you might think, although often it’s in a reserve role.  In fact, eight teams had three such players!

The 1996 Raiders started Russell Maryland and Chester McGlockton (1995 All-Pro) at defensive tackle, and had a 32-year-old Jerry Ball (1991 AP) and 22-year-old La’Roi Glover (2000 AP) on the bench! The 1992 Seahawks had Cortez Kennedy (1992-1994 AP) and Joe Nash (1984 AP) as starters on the inside, and an end-of-career Keith Millard (1988-1989 AP) on the bench for two games.

The other six: the 1984 49ers (Gary Johnson, Michael Carter, Louie Kelcher), 1981 Bears (Steve McMichael, Alan Page, Dan Hampton), 1974 Chiefs (Curley Culp, Buck Buchanan, Tom Keating), 1968 Chiefs (Buck Buchanan, Ernie Ladd, Curley Culp), and the 1964 and 1965 Bills (Tom Sestak, Jim Dunaway, Tom Keating).

The last time that a team had two former All-Pros on the same roster? Well, it happened twice in 2011 with Albert Haynesworth.  He began the season in New England, where he lined up next to Vince Wilfork. He was cut in mid-season and joins the Bucs, where he lined up next to Gerald McCoy. At that point in time, McCoy was not yet an All-Pro, but he would be two years later.

If we limit this to teams that had two players who had been or would be first-team Associated Press All-Pros at DT who also started at least eight games in that season, then this hasn’t happened in a decade. In 2008, Haloti Ngata and Trevor Pryce were on the Ravens, while Vince Wilfork and Richard Seymour were on the Patriots.

Among the most terrifying combinations in terms of both players actually being productive at the same time? Dan Hampton and Steve McMichael on the 1985-1986 Bears, Jerome Brown and Reggie White on the 1990 and 1991 Eagles, Louie Kelcher and Gary Johnson on the 1980 Chargers.

The table below lists all combinations where two former or future first-team All-Pro DTs according to the Associated Press were teammates and each started at least eight games. This includes a very similar Rams duo 50 years ago:

There have been only two players in NFL history to record a 100-yard receiving game before turning 21 years old. Can you name them?

The Steelers rookie was the youngest player since the NFL merger to record a catch: he was 20 years, 299 days old when he recorded his first NFL reception. He is remarkably young, of course: he was the youngest player in the 2017 NFL Draft and also one of the most productive as a rookie. As a sophomore at USC, Smith-Schuster had 1,454 yards in 14 games. He had 123 receiving yards in his first game in college, which came three months shy of his 18th birthday.

He had a remarkable rookie season even if you consider him just an average 21-year-old, and not a really young 21-year-old:

Something particularly notable about his production last year? His catch rate was over 70% and his yards per reception was over 15, all while gaining at least 800 yards. Since 1992, he was just the 4th player to hit those three marks:

When it comes to projecting future NFL success, Smith-Schuster had about as good a rookie year as it gets: not only was he incredibly young, but he was also remarkably efficient and very productive.

Ndamukong Suh is once again a free agent, and the Los Angeles Rams are one of the teams that he is considering joining. The Rams, of course, already have Aaron Donald, a three-time All-Pro according to the Associated Press.  He’s one of just two active defensive tackles who are three-time 1APs by the AP, and Suh is the other.

Disclaimer: The Associated Press is just one of several organizations throughout history that have named All-Pro teams.  The AP is not better than other organizations at identifying the best players and there’s no reason to focus on AP selections rather than all All-Pro organizations.  Well, maybe one reason: laziness.  And I’m feeling lazy today, so I am only going to focus on the AP All-Pro selections.

Here are all the players to be named an All-Pro DT by the AP three or more times: all the players between Sapp and Buchanan are in the Hall of Fame, and there’s a good chance that the four since Sapp will one day be in the Hall of Fame, too.

Aaron Donald (3)
Ndamukong Suh (3)
Kevin Williams (5)
Richard Seymour (3)
Warren Sapp (4)
John Randle (6)
Cortez Kennedy (3)
Randy White (7)
Joe Greene (5)
Alan Page (6)
Bob Lilly (7)
Merlin Olsen (5)
Buck Buchanan (4)
Alex Karras (3)
Ernie Ladd (3)
Tom Sestak (3)
Henry Jordan (5)
Bud McFadin (3)
Leo Nomellini (5)
Art Donovan (4)
Arnie Weinmeister (4)

Here are the AP All-Pros at DT each year since the beginning of the honor in 1950: [continue reading…]

In 2017, the San Francisco 49ers spent $47,419,179 in salary cap dollars on the team’s offense. That was the fewest in the NFL, and only the Browns and Jets were under $60M. In 2018? San Francisco has $111,833,332 in salary cap dollars allocated to offensive players, the most in the NFL.

How did that happen? Well, it’s pretty simple.

• The 49ers have $38.8M allocated to quarterbacks, by far the most in the NFL. The Lions are second at $27.6M, meaning this is a truly untenable number. This is mostly due to Jimmy Garoppolo, of course, and his contract is structured unevenly for cap purposes. At it stands, the ex-Patriot will have a $37M cap hit in ’18, a $20M cap hit in ’19, and between $26.6 and $27M in ’20, ’21, and ’22. The 49ers pushed an absurd amount of salary cap dollars into 2018 thanks to a $28M roster bonus.

• The 49ers have $13.0M allocated to running backs, which trails only the Le’Veon Bell-led Steelers and Bills (not only LeSean McCoy, but also backup Chris Ivory and FB Patrick DiMarco have large contracts for their roles). Fullback Kyle Juszczyk ($4,45M cap hit in 2018) is by far the highest paid player at his position, after signing an off-market contract last year. But the team matched the insanity in 2018, signing Jerick McKinnon to a huge contract that carries a $10.5M cap hit in 2018, the second highest (Bell) in the league. That came a year after the 49ers traded the 143rd and 161st picks in the draft to move up to select Joe Williams, a RB that Kyle Shanahan claimed he would “be sick” if the 49ers didn’t grab.

• At wide receiver, San Francisco has $23.3M in salary cap dollars, which is slightly above-average, too. This is mostly allocated to Pierre Garcon ($9.25M), Marquise Goodwin ($6.28M on a new contract this month), and Aldrick Robinson ($2.2M).

The 49ers went a little cheap at TE (Garrett Celek at $2.7M) and are about average on the offensive line. Joe Staley has a cap hit back down to $7.7M, and the 49ers will have a reasonably priced RT in either Trenton Brown or Garry Gilliam. At guard, Jonathan Cooper, Zane Beadles, and Josh Garnett will compete for two spots, with the big money player being new C Weston Richburg.  The 49ers lured Richburg from the Giants with one of the richest contracts in the league for any center.

 

The contracts paid to the running backs were obvious overpays, and Garoppolo’s contract pays him as though he’ll continue to be the player he was for five starts last year.  Thirteen months ago, wouldn’t think adding Garoppolo, McKinnon, and a fullback would transform the 49ers from the cheapest to the most expensive offense in the league, but here we are.

If you squint, you can see it. New York lost Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall for the season before the team even won its first game. Both players will be back, along with 24-year-old Sterling Shepard and not-yet-24-year-old Evan Engram. The Giants also signed Cody Latimer and added a quality left tackle in veteran Nate Solder. New York made the playoffs two years ago, and while Eli Manning had one of the worst seasons of his career in 2017, you can see a high-level functioning offense with new head coach Pat Shurmur, new OC Mike Shula, Manning, Beckham/Marshall/Shephard/Engram, and rookie RB Saquon Barkley.

But I’d be floored if the Giants took a RB with the second overall pick. In my opinion, New York is going to trade the second pick for a king’s ransom or draft a quarterback.  And it’s because the Giants have an aging, below-average quarterback as their QB1, and that’s true even though his name is Manning.

Even if you ignored 2017 due to all of the injuries the Giants offense experienced, it’s not like there would be a lot of reason for optimism about how well Manning would play into his late 30s.  Why’s that?

1) At age 35 in 2016, Manning was below-average, ranking 22nd out of 31 qualifying passers in ANY/A.

2) Manning was born on January 3rd, making him “old for his age” if you know what I mean. Had Manning been born four days earlier, he would have been considered 36 in 2016, 37 in 2017, and 38 this season.

3) Even if you give Manning the benefit of the doubt and ignore his 2017 performance and the fact that he’s old for his age, we wouldn’t expect a below-average QB at age 35 to be average at age 37, much less average at age 38 or 39. You would expect a QB to lose about 0.5 ANY/A from age 35 to age 37, and it’s not like Manning started from a very high porch.

Since Manning didn’t have much left to lose, the effects of age will likely hit him hard. The graph below shows Manning’s RANY/A — i.e., his Relative ANY/A, which is just ANY/A minus league average ANY/A — for each year of his career.  He had sustained regular season success for a five-year period from 2008 to 2012, and another mini-peak in 2014 and 2015, but the graph doesn’t pain the picture of a quarterback who will be a difference maker in 2018 or 2019 as his physical skills decline. [continue reading…]

Are you sick of reading my words? Well today you can listen to them (or not; not only is this site free, but participation is voluntary).

I joined Joe Caporoso on the Jets podcast Turn On the Jets to discuss the team’s blockbuster trade up from the #6 to #3 pick. You can listen on iTunes here or on Google Play or Spotify .  In addition, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report also appeared discussing the trade, spinning the rosier version.

I was also a guest on Mike Schopp and the Bulldog (WGR 550 in Buffalo) discussing whether the Bills should pull off a similar move. You can listen here or on iTunes here.

Last year, in 2017, Deshaun Watson was the third quarterback off the board with the 12th overall selection, and he was the leading favorite for rookie of the year before tearing his ACL in practice. In 2018, it is expected that the first three picks in the NFL Draft will be quarterbacks, just like it was in 1971 and 1999. That’s the best-case scenario for the third QB, but every draft is different: in 2015, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the first two picks, and then the third QB selected was Garrett Grayson with the 75th pick. Twice, the third QB in the draft wasn’t taken until the 6th round! In 1988, it was Syracuse’s Don McPherson going at pick 149 in a draft that didn’t see a quarterback go in the first two rounds. In 1985, Steve Bono was taken with the 142nd pick as the third passer off the board.

The graph below shows the draft position where the third QB was selected in each draft from 1967 to 2018, with the assumption being that QB3 will go with the third pick this year:

[continue reading…]

When picking a quarterback in the first round, what sort of career should you expect? What’s the median expectation? How many are above the line where you would consider him a good pick (which may be a different question)?

I looked at 25 years of drafting, from 1990 to 2014 (it’s too early to grade quarterbacks drafted since then, and maybe even too early to grade two of the three from the first round of 2014). There were 60 quarterbacks selected in the first rounds of those drafts. I took a stab at ordering them from best to worst, but don’t worry too much about some of the rankings. You can feel free to re-order them in your own way. ^[1]For example, I had Bryan Frye look at these, and he had Alex Smith, Trent Dilfer, Teddy Bridgewater, and JaMarcus Russell all 5+ spots lower, and Jeff George, Tommy Maddox, Vince Young, and Drew … Continue reading

But take a look at this list and decide where your cut-off is for drafting a first round quarterback. Where is the cutoff if you have a top-5 pick where you feel like it was a worthwhile investment? For me, it’s probably around somewhere between QB15 and QB20. Those odds aren’t too great: it means only about 30% of first round quarterbacks are really players you would be happy to build your team around. But your mileage may vary: [continue reading…]

Only twice in NFL history have the first three selections all been quarterbacks.

In 1971, the Patriots drafted Jim Plunkett with the first pick, followed by the Saints selecting Archie Manning, and the Oilers drafting Dan Pastorini third overall.  The returns were not great: New England, New Orleans, and Houston went a combined 111-183-3 with those three under center, with a 3-2 record (all from Pastorini).

Then in 1999, the Browns took Tim Couch first overall, followed by Donovan McNabb to the Eagles and Akili Smith to the Bengals. The results were better, but only because of McNabb: the trio went 117-100-1 with those teams.

This year, the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, and New York Jets now own the top three picks, with the Browns also owning the fourth overall pick. There has been speculation that the Browns would consider taking Penn State running back Saquon Barkley with the first pick, but that seems unlikely now that the Jets have decided to pay insurance to guarantee a top-3 quarterback.

This means two things: one, if the Browns don’t take Barkley, he could only go at 2, since the Jets won’t draft him.  And the Browns could wind up getting QB3 or at best QB2 if they take Barkley first overall, since we know the Jets are taking a passer.  Unless Cleveland views the top three quarterbacks as interchangeable and Barkley as future Hall of Famer, the Browns are going to draft a quarterback with the first pick.

And that leaves the Giants in an interesting spot at #2 overall.  New York probably should move on from Eli Manning, who will be 38 years old before the 2018 playoffs begin.  Manning was born on January 3rd, making him a very old 36-year-old quarterback in 2017.  And he was a very unproductive 36-year-old quarterback in 2017, which makes it hard to see why the Giants wouldn’t reboot the franchise, so to speak.

But even if the Giants don’t agree, we just saw the Jets send a mammoth amount of draft capital to the Colts for the #3 pick.  Gang Green sent 54.6 points of draft value — equivalent to the first overall pick and the 10th overall pick — for the third pick in the draft.  The bidding for the 2nd overall pick begins there, and it defies any sense of logic to think a RB or a guard (Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson will be one of the first non-QBs selected) is worth 55 points of draft value.

So New York will either take a quarterback at #2, or trade the pick for a ton of value.  Surely the Jets offered the Giants the same package they sent to Indianapolis, which means the Giants already decided the #2 pick was worth more than 54.6 points of draft value. That signals a desire to take a quarterback or to wait for a better offer as we get closer to draft day.

Where will that offer come?  The Broncos, Dolphins, and Bills are the likely suitors (the Jets could also try to get into the #1 or #2 slot, too).  Denver could offer the #5 pick, the #40 pick, and a 2019 first rounder to get the second overall pick. In that scenario, the Giants would actually still get Nelson (with the draft going QB-QB-QB-Barkley-Nelson) and get the 40th pick and a 2019 first rounder. Of course, this only works if the Giants are all in on Manning.

The Dolphins probably don’t have the juice to make the move, but don’t ignore the possibility of Miami sending the 11th pick, the 42nd pick, and the team’s first round picks in both 2019 and 2010.  GM Chris Grier and Executive Vice President of Football Operations (whatever that means) Mike Tannenbaum are both on the hot seat, and head coach Adam Gase is 16-16 after two seasons and without any sense of hope for the short-term future. Miami’s had just five players record 7+ points of AV last year; two are gone (Jarvis Landry and Ndamukong Suh), and a third is 36-year-old Cameron Wake.

The rebuild is in on Miami (Reshad Jones and Kiko Alonso are your other leaders in AV, by the way), and it’s unlikely that Tannenbaum and Grier are still around in 2020.  As a result, you can see a situation where the duo decides there’s no reason not to offer up three first round picks, as drafting the next Marino might be the only way to keep their jobs. The question: would the Giants take 11, 42, and two future firsts for the 2nd overall pick?  That would be very similar to what Washington gave up in the RG3 trade, although a slightly lesser haul.  I assume the Giants would take it, because it’s not like history fondly recalls Washington’s gambit there. New York could certainly “settle” for something less than RG3, and with a new GM in Dave Gettleman, having two first round picks in 2019 and 2020 would be a heck of a way to start the rebuild. [continue reading…]

The Jets and Colts pulled off a blockbuster trade yesterday. Indianapolis sent the Jets the third overall selection, which gives them the right to draft one of Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, or Baker Mayfield. It’s possible (likely?) that one of those guys would have still been there at #6, but the Jets didn’t want to take that risk, or (it appears) risk putting the future of the quarterback position in the hands of Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph or Luke Falk (or Teddy Bridgewater).

The price to play it safe and insure that the Jets would get one of their top three options at quarterback was not cheap.  In return for the third pick (worth 27.6 points in the Football Perspective Draft Pick Value calculator), New York gave up the sixth pick (worth 23.2 points), the 37th pick (11.6 points), the 49th pick (9.8 points), and a 2019 second round pick.  If we assume the 2019 second round pick to be say, the 40th pick overall, that’s another 11.1 points.  Discount it 10% for having to wait a year to lose it, and we can approximate it as worth 10 points.

That’s 27.6 points points received in return for trading 54.6 points, which is a whopping 198 cents on the dollar. It’s hard to overstate how much value that is: the Jets sent the equivalent of the first overall pick (34.6 points) and the 10th overall pick (19.9 points), and are now firmly in the land of massive overpays to trade up for a top-5 QB.

The Jets are now rebuilding without a 2nd round pick this year or a 2nd round pick next year and starting with a roster that is light on talent overall.  The only way this trade works out is if the draft pick turns out to be a star quarterback, but the odds of that happening are about 20%.  My suspicion is the odds of that are even lower when you have a below-average support system around that quarterback.

This is a curious trade given that the Jets will likely be left taking the third QB off the board.  The Jets could have stayed put and taken the best QB on the board at 6 (which would involve some risk, of course) and have three second round picks to surround that player.  Or trade down and take a QB like Jackson or Rudolph and surround him with three second round picks plus whatever else the Jets could have acquired via a trade down. It might be looking at a situation of the leftovers of Darnold/Rosen/Allen/Mayfield vs. Jackson + 4 2nd round picks or Rudolph plus 3 second round picks and 1 first round pick.

But there’s nothing easier in the world than overpaying to trade up for a QB that’s the safe choice.  The Jets paid 198 cents on the dollar to avoid having to take the risk in not getting one of the consensus top 4 quarterbacks. That is a very hefty insurance policy for a team that is light on talent to begin with.

This is the busiest week of the year for roster turnover. I’m short on time today, but wanted to alert all of you that Footballguys.com has a free agency tracker for all your needs.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/freeagenttracker.php?sortby1=rel&filter=

Please use the look and let us know what you think have been the most interesting moves of the week!

Joe Thomas entered the NFL in 2007, and retired this week after 11 years with the Browns.  During his time with Cleveland, the Browns had a 0.273 winning percentage, the worst record in the NFL. I wrote about how Thomas had one of the worst AV-adjusted winning percentages of all time, and that was before Cleveland went winless in 2017.

Thomas is an obvious future Hall of Famer.  He was a 6-time first-team All-Pro choice by the Associated Press, and a 10-time Pro Bowler.  He is one of just five players, along with Merlin Olsen, Mel Renfro, Barry Sanders, and Lawrence Taylor, to make the Pro Bowl in each of his first ten seasons.

But there’s another way that Thomas is a remarkable player.  He might just be more Ogden than Jonathan Ogden, and that’s saying something.  Here is what Doug wrote back when the Approximate Value system was in its infancy: [continue reading…]

Yesterday, I wrote about Mike Evans and how 68 of his 71 receptions were “successful” receptions. Today, I’m going to present that data for all top wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

A “successful” reception is one that picked up a first down on 3rd or 4th down, gained 60% of the necessary yards on 2nd down, or 40% of the necessary yards on 3rd down.

As for Bears rookie Tarik Cohen, he had just 40% of his 53 receptions be successful! That was remarkable, but you can view all of his receptions here and see the results for yourself, including seven catches for zero or negative yards.

What stands out to you?

Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. You probably already knew that, but I think his traditional stats tend to underrate the value Evans brings to the Bucs. He ranked just 15th in receiving yards and only 23rd in receptions, but he’s more valuable than those numbers indicate.

The biggest reason? Evans is a first down machine, with 77% of his catches last year turning into first downs. There were 43 players last season who had at least 60 receptions, and the only player with a highest first down rate was TE Rob Gronkowski. But even when Evans isn’t getting a first down, he’s still doing something productive.

If we break down his 71 catches:

• All 15 of his catches on 3rd/4th down went for a first down;

• 26 of his 37 catches on 1st down went for a first down; of the other 11, six went for 8 or more yards, three went for 6 yards, and the other two went for 4 and 5 yards. This means all 37 of his 1st down catches picked up either a first down or at least 40% of the yards needed to go for a first down, which means these were all successful catches.

• On 2nd down, 14 of Evans’ 19 receptions went for first downs; of the other 5, one was a 13-yard gain on 2nd-and-15 and one was a 6-yard gain on 2nd-and-10. That leaves just three catches where Evans failed to pick up at least 60% of the necessary yards to get a first down: a 6-yard catch on a 2nd-and-15, a 4-yard catch on a 2nd-and-7 (arguably a successful play in its own right), and a 3-yard catch on a 2nd-and-10. And that was it.

To recap, all of Evans’ catches on 3rd/4th down went for a first down, and nearly all of his catches on 1st and 2nd down went for first downs, too. Of that remaining group, all of his first down catches gained at least 40% of the distance needed for a first, and all but three of his second down catches gained at least 60% of the ‘to go’ yardage. Just 4% of his catches last year were “unsuccessful”, the lowest rate of any player in the NFL last season.