The San Francisco 49ers ranked just 27th in red zone offense in 2017, converting only 47% of opportunities into touchdowns. Given the hype around Jimmy Garoppolo, you might think San Francisco was much better during his time, but that’s not true. In fact, the 49ers converted 13 of 27 red zone opportunities into touchdowns during the first twelve weeks (the non-Jimmy G weeks), a 48% rate; that dropped to 11 of 24, or 46%, during Garoppolo’s time as a starter.

That…. was about the only bad thing that happened during the short but brilliant Garoppolo era. San Francisco went 5-0 with Jimmy G and 1-10 without him, making him +4.54 wins over the other quarterbacks; That’s one of the top four marks ever, alongside Marc Bulger on the 2002 Rams (6-1 with, 1-8 without), Vince Young on the 2009 Titans (8-2 with, 0-6 without), and Mike Phipps on the 1979 Bears (9-1 with, 1-5 without).

With Garoppolo, San Francisco’s offense averaged 41.2 yards per drive. The NFL average last year was 30.1 yards, and the Patriots led the NFL at 39.2 yards per drive over the course of the full season. San Francisco scored touchdowns at a rate well above average with Garoppolo under center (24% of all drives, compared to a league average rate of 20%; the Patriots led at 29.7%), but where the 49ers really shined was in kicking field goals. Remarkably, over the final five weeks of the season, San Francisco and Robbie Gould kicked (and made) 18 field goals; over the first 11 games, Gould attempted just 23 field goals! A whopping 36% of all 49ers drives under Garoppolo ended in a field goal attempt (all of which were successful):

[continue reading…]

Jimmy Garoppolo just signed a 5 year, $137.5M contract with the 49ers, and $74M of that contract is guaranteed (with a total average annual salary of $27.5M).  Next month, Kirk Cousins is going to sign an even more massive contract. In addition to the 49ers and the team that signs Cousins, there are 12 teams that have quarterbacks with 2018 salary cap values in excess of $20M: [continue reading…]

Super Bowl LII  was notable for a bunch of reasons, including as one of the best offensive games ever. One reason the game was so exciting: there were not only a ton of scores — 14 in total — but no real scoring streaks.

In most games, three consecutive scores all come from the same team. But not so in Super Bowl LII, neither the Eagles nor the Patriots scored three straight times. I’m defining a score, of course, as a touchdown, field goal, or safety, and not counting extra points or two point conversions as separate scoring plays.

At least one team was responsible for three consecutive scores in 36 of the first 51 Super Bowls. Only in the 2007 Patriots/Giants Super Bowl did both teams fail to score twice in a row — that is, the teams alternated scores throughout the game — so the 2017 Patriots/Eagles game was the 15th Super Bowl where the longest scoring streak was stopped at two scores. What makes that remarkable is how there were 14 scores altogether, the most in Super Bowl history (the Pats/Giants Super Bowl had 5, by way of reference). Take a look at the chart below, which shows the longest scoring streak and the number of scoring plays in each Super Bowl: [continue reading…]

The Eagles defense had two dominant games this postseason. Against the high-powered Falcons offense, Philadelphia held Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and company to just 10 points, with the lone touchdown drive coming on a short field following a muffed punt at the Eagles own 18-yard line. With the game in the balance, Philadelphia’s defense held on a goal-line stand to preserve the 15-10 win. In the NFC Championship Game, the defense allowed an opening drive touchdown, and then responded with a pick six on the second drive. That was it: the Eagles defense allowed zero net points to Minnesota, and recorded two more turnovers and two turnovers on downs the rest of the way.

Philadelphia’s offense also had two dominant games this postseason. Against Minnesota, the offense scored 31 points on the team’s first 7 drives of the game, and Nick Foles finished with a 141.4 passer rating on 33 attempts. In the Super Bowl, Philadelphia gained 538 yards of offense and scored 41 points. The Eagles scored on 80% of their drives against the Patriots, with half of those 10 drives ending in touchdowns. [continue reading…]

Super Bowl LII set an NFL record for total yards in a game with 1,151. That’s not total yards in a Super Bowl, or total yards in a playoff game, but total yards in any game in NFL history. That’s pretty wild.

Also remarkable, and highly correlated with the incredible offensive output is the fact that the Eagles and Patriots combined for just one punt and two turnovers. There have been four games since 1950 (which is as far back as reliable punting data goes) where there were zero punts: two involved the 2014 Saints, one was the Peyton Manning/Trent Green playoff game between the Colts and Chiefs, and one was the Super Bowl that never happened — the ’90s Bills and ’90s 49ers facing off in week 2 of the 1992 regular season. That Buffalo/San Francisco game was a classic battle of passing attacks that I’ve written about before, where both passers topped 400 yards in a year where no other quarterback did in a single game.

From 1950 to 2016, there were just 24 games that featured fewer than 4 combined turnovers and punts. The Patriots had four unsuccessful drives that aren’t quite captured here — the clock ran out on New England in both the first and second halves, the Patriots lost the ball on downs, and missed a field goal (although I wouldn’t necessarily categorize that as a bad drive) — but otherwise, just four bad drives for both teams combined is pretty rare. The Eagles had just two bad drives out of 10! Remarkably, the Eagles and Patriots combined for 9 offensive touchdowns and 6 more drives that ended in field goal attempts.

That’s 15 drives that ended in offensive scores (or possible scores), and just three bad drives (punts or turnovers).  That +12 differential is tied for the most ever with this classic Peyton Manning/Tony Romo game from 2013 (17 good drives, 5 bad) and a random Rams/Chargers game from 2000 where St. Louis scored on every single drive of the game before kneeling (17 good, 5 bad).

By just about any measure, Super Bowl LII was one of the greatest offensive games in league history, but let’s throw this out to the crowd: what stats best show this in your opinion?

Tom Brady had a Super Bowl performance for the ages. He completed 28 of 48 passes for 505 yards, with 3 TDs and 0 INTs, while taking only one sack (which, of course, was a strip-sack that ultimately decided the game). That translates to 560 Adjusted Net Yards (giving 20 yards for a touchdown and removing sack yards), which over 49 dropbacks, is 11.43 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt.

In the regular season, the Eagles defense allowed just 5.10 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt to opposing quarterbacks. Therefore, Brady was a whopping 6.32 ANY/A above expectation; over the course of 49 dropbacks, it means Brady produced 310 Adjusted Net Yards above expectation.

The beauty of this formula is that it inherently adjusts for both schedule and era. Below are the best passing performances in Super Bowl history. Nobody can match the efficiency over such a high number of passing plays as what Brady did last night: [continue reading…]

The 2018 Hall of Fame class was announced last night: Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Brian Urlacher, Terrell Owens, and Brian Dawkins were the five modern-era selections. They were joined by Jerry Kramer and Robert Brazile from the senior’s committee and Bobby Beathard as the Contributor selection.

Lewis was an obvious pick as it gets. Here’s what I wrote yesterday:

You won’t be on an island if you suggest that Lewis is the best inside linebacker in NFL history. Lewis scores well in pretty much every metric possible. When it comes to Approximate Value, what Ray Lewis did was unbelievable. He made 13 Pro Bowls, which is also absurd. The Ravens went on a magical run to win the Super Bowl in his final year, and at the time he retired, he was arguably the best player to retire after winning the Super Bowl.

Moss is just the sixth WR to make the Hall of Fame on his first ballot. He had a whopping 56 games where he picked up 100 yards and a touchdown, which is a pretty good way to identify the best wide receivers since 1950.  This stat also makes Owens (43 games) look like a pretty clear choice, too.

Urlacher is another strong choice.  He was the AP DPOY in 2005, the best defensive player in the NFC in 2006, and the AP runner-up (and selection of others) as the DPOY in 2001. There are 15 linebackers in the Hall of Fame who have 50+ points of AV and were a four-time first-team AP All-Pro; Urlacher is one of those, but he’s barely on the Bears Mount Rushmore of linebackers.

Dawkins is another great choice, and he made it to Canton just in the nick of time. In the last 20 years, Dawkins is one of the top 10 defensive backs of the last 20 years, but Ed Reed and Champ Bailey are both newly eligible next year, and Troy Polamalu is up in two years.  Getting Dawkins in now makes sense, as he checks all the boxes: longevity (193 starts), sustained success (9 Pro Bowls), and elite talent (4 first-team AP All-Pros, and a fifth from the Sporting News in 2009).

Kramer has been an overdue selection for a long time. But from a trivia perspective, here are the noteworthy bits: he gives the 1961 Packers a remarkable 12 Hall of Famers, including 11 starters (36-year-old safety Emlen Tunnell being the sole exception).  Kramer is also the final member of the NFL’s 50th anniversary team to make it to Canton.  Brazile played on some mediocre (or worse) defenses, but was well-regarded as one of the top defenders of his generation and the first great 3-4 linebacker.

In addition to the Hall of Fame announcement, we had the AP awards announcements last night. [continue reading…]

Bill Belichick is no stranger to the playoffs.  He’s been on the sidelines for 38 postseason games as a head coach with 28 victories, and entering the 2017 playoffs, he was tied with Don Shula and Tom Landry for most playoff games coached (36).  Of his three opposing head coaches in the 2017 playoffs — Mike Mularkey, Doug Marrone, and Doug Pederson — none had made the playoffs before this year.

Prior to their games with the Patriots, Marrone and Pederson had been 2-0, while Mularky had been 1-0, giving Belichick a 35-game/25-win advantage over Mularkey and Marrone, and a 36-game/26-win advantage over Pederson (who, like Belichick, had a bye this postseason). It should go without saying, but let’s state the obvious truth: a 36-game coaching edge, and a 26-win coaching edge, are both playoff records.

Before this year, the largest coaching differential in playoff game experience was 34, held by Tom Landry in this game against John Robinson and the Rams.

The table below shows the largest coaching disadvantages in playoff history prior to 2017 (since now the top three rows would all be Belichick). Note that all of the data presented below is the coaching experience prior to the start of that postseason, so Belichick would show up as +36 against each of Mularkey, Marrone, and Pederson. [continue reading…]

Below are the 15 modern-era finalists for the class of 2018:

Lewis, Moss, Urlacher, and Hutchinson are first-time finalists, and three of them are no-brainers.

You won’t be on an island if you suggest that Lewis is the best inside linebacker in NFL history. Lewis scores well in pretty much every metric possible. When it comes to Approximate Value, what Ray Lewis did was unbelievable. He made 13 Pro Bowls, which is also absurd. The Ravens went on a magical run to win the Super Bowl in his final year, and at the time he retired, he was arguably the best player to retire after winning the Super Bowl.

Moss? He’s another no-brainer.  I haven’t produced a career ranking of wide receivers in awhile, but when you look at Moss’s production in terms of gray ink, he’s a pretty obvious choice. Only five modern-era wide receivers have been selected enshrinement on their first ballot: Jerry Rice, Paul Warfield, Steve Largent, Raymond Berry, and Lance Alworth. There’s a good chance Moss joins that list, and he’s a top-5 choice for greatest wide receiver of all time on just about every list.

For a 7-year stretch, Hutchinson was a first-team All-Pro 6 times, including 5 by the Associated Press. In 2007 and 2008, Adrian Peterson led the NFL in rushing yards per game, and in 2005, Shaun Alexander was the AP MVP. Both players had success running behind Hutchinson, who was an obvious choice for the 2000s All-Deade team. And while the All-Decade team has two starters, I suspect the majority would view Hutchinson as the best guard of the 2000s. He’s an obvious first ballot Hall of Fame candidate.

Urlacher, of course, has a very strong Hall of Fame case as well, although his candidacy may be overshadowed by the overwhelming presence of Lewis. After Lewis and perhaps Junior Seau (who spent about half of his career as an outside linebacker), Urlacher is probably the best middle linebacker of the last three decades (aka the post-
Mike Singletary era, although fans who place less emphasis on longevity may prefer Luke Kuechly or Patrick Willis.  Given the presence of Lewis and that Zach Thomas has a similar resume on paper, I’m not sure that Urlacher has distinguished himself enough to become a first ballot Hall of Famer.  But he will no doubt wind up in Canton soon. [continue reading…]

Today’s guest post comes from Miles Wray, a long-time reader of the site. You may know him as the host of the daily NBA podcast The 82 Review. You can also find him on Twitter @mileswray. What follows are Miles’ words: as always, we thank our guest writers for their contributions.

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It’s not a career goal that anybody would — or even could — shoot for, but it’s a goal that any player would still be proud of: to win the Super Bowl with two separate teams. There are 38 players in the league’s history who have accomplished the feat — it’s an achievement more rare, at the very least, than a Hall of Fame career.

It feels reasonable to assume that most of those 38 dual-winners played in the 21st century, during the sport’s highest-ever era of roster churn. But no: there are only two active players who are dual winners — perhaps because there are more NFL teams than ever today, meaning that any individual team of yesteryear had a greater percentage chance of getting to the Super Bowl. ^[1]The 36 retired players with this distinction are, in alphabetical order: Herb Adderley, Matt Bahr, Robert Bailey, Jim Burt, Bill Curry, Billy Davis, Dave Duerson, Marv Fleming, Andy Frederick, … Continue reading One of those two active players has a credible Hall of Fame case: Adam Vinatieri, victor in 2001, 2002, and 2004 with the Patriots, and also in 2006, his very first year with the Colts. The other is an undrafted linebacker who just went through a 3-13 season: Jonathan Casillas won the 2009 Super Bowl with the Saints — where he helped recover the infamous surprise onside kick at the start of the second half — and also was acquired as a special-teamer in a fortuitous midseason trade by the Patriots in 2014.

One way or another, Vinatieri and Casillas will have company after this Super Bowl Sunday. On the Patriots roster, there is hired mercenary James Harrison, winner in both 2005 and 2008 with the Steelers. The Eagles, on the other hand, have apparently made it an intentional strategy to sign past winners. The Philadelphia roster is flush with eight ring-wearers. Since the Eagles have never won a Super Bowl, all eight of these players acquired their hardware with other squads: [continue reading…]

There will be 7 new head coaches in 2018, with Jon Gruden, Oakland Raiders (former HC, most recently at ESPN) joining three 2017 offensive coordinators and three 2017 defensive coordinators.

Offensive Coordinators

Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears (formerly KC OC; Chiefs ranked 4th in DVOA, 5th in my passing efficiency ratings, 4th in my rushing efficiency ratings, and 3rd in my offensive efficiency ratings).

Pat Shurmur, New York Giants (former MIN OC; Vikings ranked 5th in DVOA, 7th in passing efficiency, 19th in rushing efficiency, and 7th in offensive efficiency.

Josh McDaniels, Indianapolis Colts (former NE OC; Patriots ranked 1st in DVOA, 2nd in pass efficiency, 8th in rush efficiency, and 2nd in offensive efficiency [hire pending Super Bowl LII]

The Nagy and McDaniels hires speak for themselves: both coached top-5 offenses, and arguably top-3 offenses.  As for Shurmur, he coordinated an offense that was led by two undrafted free agents. Shurmur (9-23 with the Browns) and McDaniels (11-17 with the Broncos) each have previous coaching experience, while Nagy, who turns 40 in April, spent all of his 30s working under Andy Reid.

Defensive Coordinators
[continue reading…]

In 2017, just 15 of the 352 starts (4.3%) by the New England Patriots came from rookies.  Just four rookies produced any points of Approximate Value for the 2017 Patriots: three defensive linemen (Adam Butler, Deatrich Wise Jr., and Eric Lee) combined to just 10 points of AV, with third-string TE Jacob Hollister gaining 1 point. No team got less out of rookies in 2017 than New England, which makes sense given that (a) New England did not have a first or second round pick, (b) the team had just four picks (with only Wise producing AV or a start), and (c) the Patriots had quality starters at most positions throughout the team, leaving few opportunities for rookies to steal playing time.

For the Eagles, rookies didn’t contribute much more. Kicker Jake Elliott, backup CB Rasul Douglas, backup RB Corey Clement, and DE Derek Barnett (the team’s first round pick who played on 41% of snaps) each produced 3 points of AV, the most for any Eagles rookie. Linebackers Joe Walker and Nathan Gerry, and wide receiver Mack Hollins, each had two points of AV, with third-string QB Nate Sudfeld and backup OL Elijah Qualls bringing one point of AV.

Rookies produced only 8% of the AV by all Philadelphia players this year. Yes, every player is valuable, but compared to the rest of the NFL, the Super Bowl participants — again — didn’t get much from rookies.

The table below shows the percentage of team AV that came from rookies for all teams this year. The Saints were the only team in the top 5 that made the playoffs, although the Bills, Jaguars, and Chiefs also saw substantial contributions from rookies. [continue reading…]

Ed Feng of The Power Rank has contributed today’s post. As always, we thank our guest contributors for their hard work.

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Before Super Bowl XXV, Bill Belichick had a plan. The Giants defensive coordinator wanted his defense to let Bills running back Thurman Thomas rush for 100 yards.

The Giants defense was appalled. They prided themselves on a tough, physical brand of defense.

Nevertheless, the short, stout coach looked up into the eyes of Lawrence Taylor and Pepper Johnson and said, “You guys have to believe me. If Thomas rushes for a hundred yards, we win this game.”

In case his defense didn’t listen, Belichick took it upon himself to make sure Thomas got his yards. He took out a lineman and linebacker for two extra defensive backs, playing a 2-3-6 defense.

Did Belichick go insane? I thought so when I first read this story in David Halberstam’s book Education of a Coach.

However, Belichick’s strategy has analytics on its side. Let me explain. [Editor’s note: See also this article by Chase about Super Bowl XXV.] [continue reading…]

From 2001 to 2004, the Patriots won three out of four Super Bowls, which was widely considered to form a dynasty. Sure, New England missed the playoffs in ’02, but the Patriots matched the ’90s Cowboys by winning three Super Bowls in just four seasons.

Well, the Patriots have been so good since then that it’s sometimes hard to realize that the Patriots are on the verge of forming another dynasty. After all, with a win in Super Bowl LII, New England will join the ’01-’04 Patriots and the ’92-’95 Cowboys as the only teams to win three Super Bowls in four years.

Which, you know, is pretty remarkable.

Also remarkable? Just four players in this run — QB Tom Brady, safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung, and tackle Nate Solder — played in at least 40% of Patriots regular season snaps in 2014, 2016, and 2017.  The table below shows the percentage of offensive or defensive snaps by each player on New England in 2014, 2016, and 2017. [continue reading…]

Three years ago, I wrote a detailed breakdown about Super Bowl squares. Well, it’s that time of year again, so I’m going to repost that article here to help you cheat to win at your Super Bowl party.

Every Super Bowl squares pool is different, but this post is really aimed at readers who play in pools where you can trade or pick squares (surely no pool has a prohibition on this!) I looked at every regular season and postseason game from 2002 to 2013. ^[1]Yes, this means your author was too lazy to update things for the 2014, 2015, or 2016 seasons. I suppose the rule change moving back the extra point would probably change things ever so slightly, … Continue reading The table below shows the likelihood of each score after each quarter, along with three final columns that show the expected value of a $100 prize pool under three different payout systems. The “10/” column shows the payout in a pool where 10% of the prize money is given out after each of the first three quarters and 70% after the end of the game; the next column is for pools that give out 12.5% of the pool after the first and third quarters, 25% at halftime, and 50% for the score at the end of the game. The final column is for pools that give out 25% of the pot after each quarter — since I think that is the most common pool structure, I’ve sorted the table by that column, but you can sort by any column you like. To make the table fully sortable, I had to remove the percentage symbols, but “19, 6.7, 4.1, 2” should be read as 19.0%, 6.7%, 4.1%, and 2.0%. [continue reading…]

After the 2015 season, there were seven new head coaching hires. All seven were offensive head coaches, as part of a three-year coaching sandwich that focused on one side of the ball.

• Adam Gase to the Miami Dolphins was one of three high-profile hires.  But after a strong first season, the shine has worn off in South Beach. Gase’s Dolphins struggled everywhere except the scoreboard for awhile, but after a 6-10 season in year two, Miami looks no closer to finding long-term success than it was prior to Gase.

• Another sexy hire was Hue Jackson to Cleveland, who was also the lone minority hire from 2014-2015. Unfortunately, Jackson has been hired to be the Browns head coach as many times as he’s won games as the Browns head coach.

• After being fired by the Eagles, Chip Kelly still landed in San Francisco as a high-profile hire. Of course, he flamed out quickly, going 2-14 in his lone season with the 49ers. He’s now the UCLA head coach after taking the 2017 season off from coaching.

• The New York Giants promoted Ben McAdoo from offensive coordinator to head coach; that went well for a year, but McAdoo couldn’t even last a full two years despite making the postseason in year one

• Dirk Koetter joined McAdoo as offensive coordinators that were promoted to take over for fired head coaches. Koetter, like Gase and McAdoo, was much better in year one than in year two. He wasn’t fired, but a 4-11 start in 2017 put him on the hot seat.

• Mike Mularkey went 2-7 as the Titan’s interim head coach in 2015, and then somehow got the fulltime job.  After an impressive 2016 and an up-and-down 2017, Mularkey’s Titans made the playofs…. but he was still fired after the season, to make room for Mike Vrabel. Random factoid that may only interest me: three of the last four Tennessee coaches were named Mike, and in the last 30 years, all Titans coaches have been named Mike, Ken, Jeff, Jack, or Jerry.

[continue reading…]

Nick Foles is no stranger to great games. He has the greatest passing game in Eagles history, recorded on November 3rd, 2013 against the Raiders. Foles completed 22 of 28 passes for 406 yards and 7 touchdowns, with just one sack for one yard and zero interceptions. That translates to a whopping 18.79 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt.

We can adjust that result for both era and quality of defense: Oakland’s pass defense was bad that season, allowing 7.41 ANY/A to opposing passers, but even still, that means Foles still averaged well over 11 more ANY/A against the Raiders than the average passer that season. Over the course of his 29 dropbacks, Foles provided 330 ANY above expectation, easily the best game in Eagles history. In fact, it’s one of just eight games since 2002 with over 300 ANY over expectation, joining three Peyton Manning games (against the Broncos in both the ’03 and ’04 playoffs, and with the Broncos against the Ravens in the 2013 Kickoff Classic), two Ben Roethlisberger games (Packers 2009, Colts 2014), and performances by Drew Brees (Patriots, 2009) and Kurt Warner (Packers, 2009 playoffs).

But then, against the Vikings, Foles had another masterpiece. And what made this one particularly special was that it came against a really good Minnesota defense. During the regular season, the Vikings allowed just 4.57 ANY/A, second best in the NFL. But in the NFC Championship Game, Foles was 26 for 33 for 352 yards with 3 TDs and no interceptions, with one sack for six yards. That translates to 406 Adjusted Net Yards on 34 dropbacks, or 11.94 ANY/A. That is 7.37 ANY/A above what the average opposing QB produced against the Vikings during the regular season; over the course of 34 dropbacks, that translates to 250 Adjusted Net Yards of added value.
[continue reading…]

Super Bowl LII features the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots are favored by 5 points (the line opened at NE -5.5) and the over/under is 48 points. There have been 51 prior Super Bowls, so how do those lines compare?

• On average, the point spread has been 6.9 points with an over/under of 44.2 points. The average final score? Winning team 30.2, losing team 16.1. In the Patriots era (i.e., 2001-2016), the average spread has been 5.4 points, with an over/under of 48.4 points, nearly perfectly matching this year’s numbers.

• Underdogs are 16-34 straight up in Super Bowls (the Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl line was a push). The last 8 Super Bowl champions all covered the spread, in part because of low lines (none higher than 5 points) and in larger part because four of the last five Super Bowl champions were underdogs. Overall, underdogs are 22-26-2 against the spread.

• There have been just six Super Bowls where the spread mattered (i.e., the underdog covered the spread but still lost): Steelers/Cowboys in ’75, 49ers/Bengals in ’88, Cowboys/Steelers in ’95, Patriots/Panthers in 2003, Patriots/Eagles in 2004, and Steelers/Cardinals in 2008.

• The “over” has hit in 4 of the last 5 games, bringing the Over’s mark to 27-24 overall.

The table below shows the full results. [continue reading…]

In the regular season, Marcus Mariota threw 13 touchdown passes, Blake Bortles threw 21 touchdown passes, and Nick Foles threw 5 touchdown passes. If the Patriots win Super Bowl LII, New England will have done so by beating teams starting quarterbacks who threw just 39 touchdown passes in the regular season.

How unusual is that? Well, no Super Bowl champion has faced quarterbacks in the playoffs who threw fewer than 40 touchdowns since 1982, which was the year the regular season was shortened to 9 games by the player strike.  Washington faced four quarterbacks who combined for 38 touchdowns in the regular season; that’s an average of 9.5 per team, but on a per-16 team game basis, those quarterbacks still averaged 16.9 touchdowns.

If we look at things on a per team and per-16 team game basis, the Patriots opposing QBs — who threw for 13 TDs per team per 16 team games — would be the third lowest in history, and the lowest since 1979. [continue reading…]

The matchup for Super Bowl LII is set. The 13-3 New England Patriots will be facing the 13-3 Philadelphia Eagles in Minneapolis, Minnesota in two weeks.

• This is a matchup of the two #1 seeds, which is starting to become a thing again. The 1993 Bills/Cowboys was the last matchup of #1 seeds in the Super Bowl for a long time, until the 2009 Colts/Saints game. From ’94 to ’12, that was the only matchup of #1 seeds in the Super Bowl, but since then, it happened in 2013 (Seahawks over Broncos), 2014 (Patriots over Seahawks), 2015 (Broncos over Panthers) and now 2017.
• For the 8th time, Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots are going to the Super Bowl. Remarkably, Brady has made the Super Bowl in half of his 16 seasons as the Patriots starting quarterback. He will, of course, extend his own record by playing in his eighth Super Bowl: no player has made seven, while Mike Lodish and Don Beebe each made six (Lodish played in all six; Beebe played in three).

Brady has made the Super Bowl in half of his seasons as a starter; the other seasons haven’t been so bad, either:

[continue reading…]

There are only three games left this season, and two of those are taking place today. So I’ll be turning the site today into a live blog with posts throughout the game, starting at 3pm.

11th Super Bowl Appearance for Bill Belichick

This will be the 11th Super Bowl appearance for Bill Belichick, which is of course a record for a coach or player or owner. The graph below shows the number of Super Bowl appearances for Belichick by year:

Tommy U?

The last QB to lead the NFL in passing and win the championship in the same season was Johnny Unitas in 1961. That’s right: no quarterback in the Super Bowl era has ever done that. But Tom Brady beat Philip Rivers (by 62 yards) to win the passing yards crown for the third time in his career (’05, ’07).

If Brady wins the Super Bowl and the AP Most Valuable Player award, he’ll also be the first quarterback to do that in the same season since Kurt Warner in 1999. After Matt Ryan last season and Cam Newton in 2015, AP MVPs have made 8 of the 17 Super Bowls since then, but are 0-8 in those games (despite being favored in 6 of those 8).

6:15 Update

There was a 9-year stretch where the Brady/Belichick Patriots didn’t win any Super Bowls, but now the Brady/Belichick Patriots are on the verge, for the 2nd time, of winning 3 Super Bowls in 4 years.

5:35 Update

Great drive by Brady and the Patriots, overcoming a 3rd-and-18 and no Gronk to drive down for a touchdown.

The Jaguars can’t just run the clock out. With 8:44 left, and clinging to a 3-point lead, Jacksonville can’t deploy the Bills game end-game strategy again and expect to win.

5:05 Update

Much of the story today can be explained via third down conversions. The Patriots are just 1-for-8 on third down, while the Jaguars are 6-for-10. On the other hand, field position is starting to turn New England’s way. Field position had been even, but Jacksonville’s second drive of the second half started at the 10, after a 3-and-out the Patriots drive started at the 46, and then even after a 3-and-out, NE was able to pin Jacksonville down to its own 9.

After an ugly first down play, Jacksonville has now recovered and is driving. A big third down conversion from Bortles just now.

Keenum and Foles

Nick Foles and Case Keenum both entered the NFL in 2012, and both have started just under 40 games in the regular season. Of the 34 passers with 1,000 attempts since 2012, Foles ranks 18th in ANY/A while Keenum ranks 25th.

But while Foles has a slightly higher ANY/A average (6.22 to 5.99), the players obviously got there in very different ways. The graph below shows their career ANY/A average after each week of each season since 2012.

Also, Keenum has started 14 regular season games for both the Rams with Jeff Fisher and the Vikings. The splits are, well, remarkable:

4:00 Update

Based on my efficiency ratings, the Patriots defense ranked 21st against the pass, 30th against the run, and 26th overall. New England’s defense ranked 5th in points allowed, but that was always highly misleading.

The Jaguars have 13 first downs on three drives and have 14 points. The Jaguars offense also has been underrated (it ranked a misleading 5th in points scored, but it was no worse than an average offense despite being referred to by many as a liability), but looks outstanding today. The short of it? Jacksonville’s offense has feasted on bad defenses this year, and they are doing that again today.

3:40 Update

The Patriots defense was bad this year, particularly at preventing first downs. Jacksonville now has 7 first downs through two drives, after a 7-play, 5-first down, 76-yard drive for a touchdown.

Bortles looks pretty good, and the Patriots defense looks pretty bad.

3:30 Update

The Jaguars are underdogs today (although on paper they may be the better team). But an underdog wants to limit possessions as part of a David strategy. So far, that seems to be going okay for Jacksonville — the first three drives for these teams took over 12 minutes, as there were just two incomplete passes.

3:10 Update

Pats choose to go for it on 4th-and-2 from the 30 on the first drive of the game. This feels like the right call, given that a field goal is not a given.

Brady throws a lob pass to Amendola on a wheel route for a 20-yard pickup.

3:00

Only four teams since 1978 have won multiple playoff games despite being a touchdown underdog.

The Tom Coughlin-led 2007 Giants won three such games, including a win in the Super Bowl over the Brady/Belichick Patriots.

The Coughlin-led 1996 Jaguars were the first team to win two such games; the Brady/Belichick 2001 Patriots were the second, and the 2012 Ravens — including a win over the Brady/Belichick Patriots — were the third.

Jacksonville won as a 7-point underdog in Pittsburgh last week, and is a 7.5-point underdog today in Foxboro.

Pre-Game Thoughts

As for now, what are your predictions?

If I had to rank the eight units we are going to see today, I would go:

Tier 1:

Jaguars defense

Vikings defense

Patriots offense

Tier 2:

Eagles defense

Tier 3:

Vikings offense

Tier 4:

Jaguars offense

Tier 5:

Patriots defense

Tier 6:

Eagles offense

As for the head coaches, the Patriots have the clear advantage, while the Eagles May have a slight advantage. New England and Philadelphia are arguably the less talented teams but are at home, which means this should be two great games.

My predictions:

Jacksonville 24, New England 20

Philadelphia 17, Minnesota 16

Carson Wentz was the Eagles quarterback for the first 13 games of the season, but after tearing his ACL in his left knee, Nick Foles has taken over as the Philadelphia starting quarterback.

In Minnesota, Sam Bradford started the opening game of the season, but missed the next month of the season with a knee injury. Bradford then surprisingly started a week 5 game against the Bears but was not himself; he aggravated his knee during that game, and has not played since. In his absence, Case Keenum has had a remarkably productive season, and now the Vikings and Eagles are facing off in the NFC Championship Game.

That means this will be the first conference championship game in NFL history featuring two starting quarterbacks who were not their team’s starting quarterbacks in week 1 of the regular season.

In fact, in the last 10 years, just three teams have made the conference championship game with backup quarterbacks, and two of those instances have asterisks. The Steelers and Patriots made the AFCCG in years where their starting quarterbacks began the year on the sidelines due to suspension, making Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady backup quarterbacks in name only. [continue reading…]

You will not be surprised to learn that the Patriots led the NFL this season with 389 first downs. That’s the 9th most since 2002, and New England has three other teams ahead of the 2017 version. The Patriots offense is always great in large part because the Patriots always pick up a ton of first downs.

The graph below shows the number of first downs for each team this season.  The Jaguars, perhaps surprisingly, ranked tied for 7th with a Saints offense that was much better:

The Jaguars allowed just 257 first downs, the fewest in the NFL. [continue reading…]

Calais Campbell had 16 points of AV while playing with the Arizona Cardinals in 2016. He signed a monster four year, $60 million contract with $30 million guaranteed with the Jaguars in the first week of free agency. But this didn’t prove to be a massive overpay of an aging veteran. On the contrary, Campbell has been a revelation and Defensive Player of the Year candidate; for the second year in a row, he produced 16 points of AV in 2017.

Andrew Whitworth had a similar pedigree but was in a slightly different situation. he signed a contract with the Rams after a decade of strong play with the Bengals. Whitworth received Pro Bowl or some All-Pro recognition in 2014, 2015, and 2016, but at 36, he wasn’t the sought after free agent that Campbell was. But Whitworth, who signed a 3-year, $33.75M contract, managed to exceed expectations in his first year in Los Angeles. Whitworth was the left tackle for the highest scoring offense in the league and was the plurality choice at first-team All-Pro left tackle by the AP.

And then there is Case Keenum. He signed a one year, $2 million contract with the Vikings on April 4 to almost no fanfare. Now? Keenum is starting in this year’s NFC Championship Game.

The table below shows the leaders in AV in 2017 among players who were on different teams in 2016. [continue reading…]

With the All-Pro votes now in, the initial 2017 Approximate Value numbers have been released by PFR. Thanks to the tireless work of Mike Kania and the P-F-R staff, PFR has now generated the Approximate Values for every player in the NFL this year. For the uninitiated, you can review how AV is calculated here. And if you’re so inclined, you can thank Mike and/or the PFR staff on twitter.

Here are your leaders: [continue reading…]

The playoffs. Less than two minutes to go. You need a score to win, but you’re far away from the end zone. And then a miracle happens.

There have been just 8 touchdowns in NFL playoff history that meet the following four criteria:

• The touchdown came in the final two minutes of regulation or at any point in overtime;
• The touchdown was at least 50+ yards;
• The touchdown tied or gave the team the lead;
• The touchdown was scored by the winning team.

Here are those eight scores. [continue reading…]

In his first playoff game, Drew Brees threw a game-tying touchdown pass to Antonio Gates with 11 seconds remaining to force overtime against the Jets. In overtime, Brees and the Chargers drove 48 yards down the field, and converted two third downs, to set up a game-winning 40-yard field goal. Unfortunately for Brees, Nate Kaeding missed the kick, and the Jets won in overtime.

In his second playoff game, Brees had an efficient performance in a win over the Eagles. The next week, New Orleans faced an excellent Bears team in frigid conditions in Chicago. Brees’ teammates lost two fumbles, rushed for a total of 48 yards, and allowed 37 points in an NFCCG loss.

Brees’ next three playoff games were all in 2009, when he threw 8 touchdowns and no interceptions as the Saints won the Super Bowl.

His next playoff game? That was the BeastQuake game when Marshawn Lynch rumbled for a 67-yard touchdown in the 4th quarter. The Saints lost 41-36, despite Brees throwing for 404 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions.  This would not be the last time Brees would lose a game despite his team scoring over 30 points.

The next playoff game of his career was his best, at least statistically.  Even with era and defensive adjustments, it ranked as one of the 10 best passing games in postseason history: He threw for 466 yards and 3 TDs on 43 attempts in a 45-28 win over the Lions.

The next week Brees lost in one of the classic games in modern postseason history. Take a look at the boxscore:

This was the first game in playoff history with four lead changes in the final five minutes. Brees had a monster game against a great 49ers pass defense, and gave his team the lead in the final two minutes. Alas, that was not enough. This would not be the last time that would happen, either.

Two years later, Brees and the Saints won in Philadelphia as underdogs. This was, statistically, the worst playoff game of his postseason career. On the other hand, he and the Saints were a dome team playing a night game in Philadelphia in freezing conditions, and after a rough first half, the Saints scored two touchdowns and two field goals in five second half possessions. On the final drive, he picked up two first downs to set up the game-winning field goal.

The next week wasn’t good: he was 24/43 for 309 yards and 1 TD which oh wait it was against the 2013 Seahawks. In Seattle. So yeah, that was a pretty good game in a losing effort.

That brings us to 2017. In the first round of the playoffs, Brees went 23/33 for 376 yards and 1 TDs in a 31-26 win over Carolina. And then yesterday against the Vikings? After a miserable first half, Brees and the Saints scored three touchdowns on the team’s first four drives of the second half. The final touchdown put New Orleans ahead by 1 point with 2:20 to go.

Minnesota answered with a 9-play, 40-yard drive that culminated with a 53-yard field goal. New Orleans got the ball back, down 2 with 89 seconds left and one timeout, and drove 50 yards for the field goal. The Saints took a 24-23 lead with 25 seconds remaining.

With 10 seconds remaining, the Vikings had the ball at their own 39 yard line with no timeouts left. And then this happened:

Well, this happened:

One of the greatest plays in playoff history. An instant classic. And yet, once again, Brees was left holding the short straw. Does this boxscore look familiar?

There have been two games in NFL postseason history with four lead changes ^[1]I am excluding ties, but if you include them, only one other game gets in there. in the final five minutes. And Brees was on the losing end in both of them.

As a reminder, in 13 playoff games:

• The other team has scored 28+ points 6 times, and Brees is 2-4 in those games This includes the only two games in playoff history with four lead changes in the final five minutes and the BeastQuake game where the Saints scored 36 points.

• Brees’ teams are 5-2 when the opponent scores under 28 points. The two losses include a game against one of the best pass defenses in NFL history and a game where his kicker missed a 40-yard field goal in overtime.

• The average score of a Drew Brees playoff game is 28.8 to 26.8. While with the Saints, that jumps to 29.8 to 27.4.

In the last 10 postseasons, there have been 27 games with at least 56 points combined (i.e., an average of 28 points per team). Brees’s Saints have been involved in six of those 27 games. Keep in mind that there have been 214 playoff games over that stretch, and New Orleans has only been in 10 of them.

That means 60% of all Drew Brees playoff games see 56+ points scored, compared to 10% of all other games.

Brees is one of just four quarterbacks with a career passer rating in the playoffs over 100 and has averaged 324 passing yards per game in the playoffs, easily the most of all time. His stat line — 354/537, 4,209 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs, 100.7 passer rating, 22 sacks — looks like that of an MVP candidate, especially when you consider that’s in only 13 games. Pro-rated to 16 games, and it’s 5,180 yards with 36 TDs and 11 INTs on 661 attempts. Those are nearly identical to the numbers he put up in an MVP caliber 2013 season.

In other words, Drew Brees in the playoffs plays like the best version of Drew Brees in the regular season, which is pretty darn incredible. But what’s even more incredible is the string of events that have left him with just a 7-6 record. For that 7-6 record, he can thank Kaeding, Lynch, Vernon Davis, Stefon Diggs, and going up against two of the best defenses of the last 15 years.

There’s no denying that New England is the greatest regular season team in modern NFL history. From 2001 to 2017, the Patriots have had a 0.768 winning percentage in the regular season; that’s over 10% higher than the second-best team, the Steelers at 0.660.

That’s also the best winning percentage over any 17-year period in history, better than the 1946-1962 Browns (an AAFC-aided 0.756), the 1933-1949 Bears (0.749), and the 1966-1983 Raiders (0.743).

Oh, and the last 8 years? The Patriots have won 80% of their games, the best of any NFL team in any 8-year stretch (the AAFC-aided Browns posted a 0.865 winning percentage from 1946-1953). More incredibly, the Patriots are now going to their 7th-straight AFC Championship Game.

Since losing to Mark Sanchez and the Jets in the Division Round of the playoffs to end the 2010 season, the Patriots have: [continue reading…]

On Monday night, Alabama head coach Nick Saban added to his already remarkable legacy with an aggressive coaching decision.  In the national championship game, Saban benched starting quarterback Jalen Hurts — a player who the team was 25-2 with under center and who had thrown one interception in his last 16 games — at halftime of the national championship game. With the Crimson Tide down 13-0, Saban inserted true freshman Tua Tagovailoa into the game, and a couple hours later, Alabama was again national champions and Tagovailoa was the offensive player of the game.

Will any head coach do that this weekend? On the surface, there are three obvious candidates, and four obvious “not gonna happen” situations.

The most concerning quarterback situation is in Philadelphia, where Nick Foles is the starter after Carson Wentz was lost for the season.  If Foles struggles the way he did the last two weeks of the regular season, you can see why the Eagles would consider making a similar switch. [continue reading…]