Clyde Edwards-Helaire has had a really good 13 months. He’s gone 13-1 as a starter for the 2020 Chiefs, including a win in the AFC Championship Game. This is a nice continuation of his time at LSU, where Edwards-Helaire went 15-0 as the leading rusher for the Tigers. Since January 1, 2019, Edwards-Helaire has gone 29-1 in his 30 games.

CEH is on the verge of winning the national championship and the Super Bowl in back to back seasons, a pretty rare feat. There have been 14 players to win a national championship and an NFL championship in back to back seasons. ^[1]The NFL qualifier excludes two other seasons. In 1947, when Frank Kosikowski was on Notre Dame’s back-to-back champions in 1946 and 1947; as a rookie, he played in the AAFC with the Cleveland … Continue reading [continue reading…]

The 2014 Patriots were not very reliant on the ground team. Jonas Gray led the team in rushing yards with just 412 in 8 games, while Shane Vereen was second with 391 over the full season. Stevan Ridley had 340 in 6 games, while LeGarrette Blount had 281 in five appearances. Even as a team, New England only ranked 18th in rushing yards. And while Blount ran all over the Colts (30/148/3) in the AFC Championship Game, he was held to just 40 yards on 14 carries in the Super Bowl, which still managed to lead the team.

Among the now 110 teams to make the Super Bowl, the 2014 Patriots rank last when it comes to rushing yards gained by their leading rusher. The 1998 Broncos, of course, rank first: Terrell Davis rushed for 2,008 yards that season. The graph below shows the rushing yards (pro-rated to 16 game seasons for years with shorter schedules) for the leading rusher on each Super Bowl team: the winners are shown in black, the losers in green, and the Bucs and Chiefs are shown in team colors. [continue reading…]

In 1959, John Unitas led the NFL in pass attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns en route to a unanimous MVP award.  In addition, his Baltimore Colts repeated as NFL champions, capping off a brilliant season for the legendary quarterback.

Two years later, in the early days of the AFL, George Blanda was the league’s MVP as he threw for 3,330 yards (no other player had 2,700 yards) and 36 touchdowns (no other quarterback had even 20). Teaming with Bill Groman and Charley Hennigan, Houston had a dominant offense and won the AFL Championship.

But since then — which would include the entirety of the Super Bowl era — no quarterback has won the Super Bowl in the same season where he led the league in passing yards.  A similar but slightly different criteria yields a different result.  Team passing yards, as opposed to individual passing yards, has two major differences: sack yards are deducted at the team but not the individual level, and of course situations where a quarterback does not play a full season will have a much smaller impact on the team level. [continue reading…]

The Chiefs have three superstars leading their dominant offense: TE Travis Kelce was drafted in 2013, WR Tyreek Hill was drafted in 2016, and QB Patrick Mahomes was drafted in 2017. Kansas City’s top three defensive stars — nose tackle Chris Jones, safety Tyrann Mathieu, and edge rusher Frank Clark — were added three different ways.  Jones was second round pick in 2016, Clark was acquired via trade in 2019, and Mathieu was a free agent pickup in 2019.

That 2019 year was a big offseason for Kansas City.  Sure, the team was the #1 seed in 2018, hosted the AFC Championship Game, and only lost in overtime to the eventual Super Bowl champions, but that team was a bit different from this version. Six likely starters in Super Bowl LV — Mathieu, Clark, WR Mecole Hardman, ILB Damien Wilson, G Nick Allegretti, and CB Bashaud Breeland — were added in the 2019 offseason. [continue reading…]

Fritz Pollard, the first African American coach and quarterback in the NFL.

Back in 2008, I wrote a four part series detailing the history of the black quarterback.

Six years ago, I updated that article, just as I did last year. Today, in honor of black history month, let’s revisit the history of black quarterbacks in the NFL. And while for the last 53 of those seasons, at least one black quarterback was in the NFL, the roles and treatment of black quarterbacks have varied greatly throughout the Super Bowl era.

The history of black quarterbacks in professional football is complicated. The New York Giants did not have a black quarterback throw a pass until 2007, when Anthony Wright became the first to do so; 10 years later, Geno Smith became the first and only black quarterback to start a game for the Giants, the last team to finally start a black player at quarterback. But as far back as 1920, Frederick Douglass “Fritz” Pollard was the tailback of the Akron Pros; a year later, he was promoted to player/coach, and became the first black head coach in NFL history. Pollard helped the Pros win the championship in the NFL’s inaugural season. ^[1]At the time, the NFL went by the name the American Professional Football Association. It was not known as the NFL until 1922. The Pros ran the single-wing, and Pollard was the player lined up behind the center who received the snaps. At the time the forward pass was practically outlawed, so Pollard barely resembles the modern quarterback outside of the fact that he threw a few touchdown passes during his career. ^[2]In addition to his NFL exploits, Pollard also achieved a great deal of fame for leading Brown to back-to-back road wins over the powerhouse schools of the time, Yale and Harvard, in 1916. He would … Continue reading And, of course, it was a time of significant discrimination: Pollard and end Bobby Marshall were the first two black players in professional football history.

As told by Sean Lahman, at least one African American played in the NFL in every year from 1920 to 1933; while there were several notable black players, Pollard was the only one ^[3]Well, maybe we can include single-wing tailback Joe Lillard, too.  In 1933, he had more than twice as many passing yards and rushing yards as any of his Cardinals teammates. He would then leave the … Continue reading resembling a quarterback. ^[4]It wasn’t just African Americans that had full access during this era: Jim Thorpe coached and starred in a team composed entirely of Native Americans called the Oorang Indians in 1922 and 1923. Beginning in 1934, that there was an informal ban on black athletes largely championed by Washington Redskins owner George Marshall. It wasn’t until 1946 that black players were re-admitted to the world of professional football, when UCLA’s Kenny Washington ^[5]Who occupied the same backfield with the Bruins as Jackie Robinson. and Woody Strode were signed by the Los Angeles Rams; in the AAFC, Bill Willis and Marion Motley were signed by Paul Brown’s Cleveland Browns that same season.
[continue reading…]

It was just under 5 years ago that the Rams made a blockbuster trade to acquire the number one overall pick to select Jared Goff. As a reminder, in April 2016, the Rams traded:

the 15th overall selection (WR Corey Coleman), the 43rd ^[1]Which had been acquired when the Rams traded Sam Bradford to the Eagles. pick (Austin Johnson), the 45th selection (Derrick Henry), and a third round pick (#76, Shon Coleman), plus next year’s first round pick (which turned into the 5th overall pick and Corey Davis) and third round picks (#100, Jonnu Smith)

to Tennessee for

the first overall pick (Goff), and two later round picks in the 2016 Draft (#113-Nick Kwiatkoski, #177-Temarrick Hemingway)

At the time, the Rams probably didn’t think they would be sending the 5th overall pick in 2017, but that’s one of the risks of trading away a future first round pick.  And how did it work out for Los Angeles?  It’s tough to say.  Goff certainly didn’t live up to expectations: the Rams are explicitly telling the world that Goff is not good enough by trading him and a lot of draft capital to Detroit for Matthew Stafford.  On the other hand, not only did Goff have a lot of success with the Rams, but there is some irony in what wound up happening.  The concern in sending a lot of draft capital to move up to draft a quarterback is that you wind up in Jetsland, where New York sent a ton of capital for Sam Darnold and then never could build a team around him.  The Rams didn’t get the franchise quarterback they wanted, but wound up building a great team around Goff despite the lack of draft capital.  One could argue that Los Angeles is one of the top-5 talented teams in the NFL, if you remove the quarterback from the equation.

And that is the gamble Los Angeles is making this weekend.  The Rams just sent Goff, along with the team’s first round picks in both 2022 and 2023 and the 88th pick in the 2021 Draft to Detroit for Matthew Stafford.  And it’s very interesting what the trade says about not just how the Rams, but the entire NFL, view Goff.

Valuing future picks is always challenging because we have to include the time value discount associated with those picks plus the uncertainty of knowing exactly where they will fall in the draft. ^[2]The Texans have twice traded away top-5 draft picks in recent years without knowing it.  This trade is particularly difficult to analyze because it’s initially unclear whether Goff is an asset (a talented, former number one overall quarterback in his prime) or a liability (a quarterback viewed as significantly overpaid with a contract that is going to cost Detroit $54M in cap dollars over the next two years, unless they cut him, in which case he would cost $44M over the next two years).

What do the Lions want to do? If they are looking to tear down the roster and rebuild, Goff may not have a lot of value — and they could look to trade him or cut him in the next 12 months.  That would mean he is viewed as a liability, and the Rams actually paid less than they would have for Stafford if they didn’t make Detroit take Goff.  On the other hand, are we to assume that no team would have traded for Goff with his existing contract?  If even one team (the Colts? Steelers?) would have offered the Rams something, then there would have been no reason to bundle him in this deal.  But perhaps his contract really was an albatross: we will only find out once we see what the Lions do with him.  As it turns out, we can get a pretty good sense of whether Goff is an asset or a liability by analyzing the rest of the trade.  More on that in a moment.

For Detroit, this closes the book on the Stafford chapter.  Did he disappoint in Detroit?  I think the better summary is that he was a very good player saddled on a bad franchise. There are only four quarterbacks to start 130+ games with one team despite having a losing record: Stafford, Joe Ferguson, Jim Hart, and John Brodie.  Here is every quarterback-team relationship with 130+ starts, with their collective winning percentage on the X-Axis and their number of starts on the Y-Axis.  I have put Stafford, Ferguson Hart, and Brodie in team colors; yes, Stafford has the worst winning percentage of the group. ^[3]And yes, this cut-off was intentional, and historians should have been able to guess that Archie Manning started 129 games for the Saints.

So how much is Los Angeles giving up to get Stafford?  Some NFL teams put a full round discount on future picks, which would make a 2022 1st round pick equal to a 2021 2nd round pick, and a 2023 1st round pick equal to a 2021 3rd round pick.   That is more justifiable when, like with the Rams, the expectation at least is that those first round picks will not be top-10 picks.  If we use the Jimmy Johnson calculator, and treat the ’22 1st as equivalent to the 45th pick and the ’23rd 1st like the 75th pick, that implies L.A. sent value equal to the 20th or 21st pick in this year’s draft.  But that is probably the wrong way to analyze the situation: it assumes too significant a discount, as we would expect Stafford to be worth more than that (for example, Indianapolis has a quarterback need and the 21st overall pick in this year’s draft, and that presumably would not have been enough to get Stafford).

So if that discount is too high, how do we determine the right discount?  Let’s start by saying the average first round pick is worth 18.4 points on my chart, equivalent to the 13th overall selection (because the dropoff in value is logarithmic). On the JJ Chart, the average first round pick is about the same, falling in between the 12th and 13th overall picks.

If we use a 10% discount rate, that would make a 2022 1st round pick equal to the 17th pick on my chart and the 15th on the JJ Chart. Use a 20% discount rate, and a 2022 1st round pick is equal to the 23rd pick on my chart and the 17th on the JJ chart; a larger discount rate than that is hard to justify. For a 2023 1st round pick, using a 10% discount rate, we get the 22nd pick or the 17th pick on the FP and JJ charts, and equivalent to the 36th pick and the 24th pick in 2021 using a 20% discount rate.

Here, the Rams are getting Stafford, a relatively known commodity. ^[4]It’s important to keep in mind that often teams trade future firsts with a specific rookie player in mind; when Atlanta traded a future first round pick for the 6th pick in the draft it … Continue reading Does that argue for a higher discount rate? Perhaps so. So let’s say we use the 20% number. How do we value the 88th pick in this year’s draft plus the two first rounders the next two years? ^[5]Of course, the Rams are without a first round pick in 2021 due to the Jalen Ramsey trade. If we consider the 2022 and 2023 first round picks to be average in value, and then apply a 20% discount, those picks combined with the 88th overall selection are equivalent to the 32.6 points on the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart and 1817 points on the traditional, JJ Chart. That’s equal to between the 1st and 2nd picks on my chart, or the 4th pick on the traditional chart.

And that is… a lot. I feel pretty confident in saying that such a collection of picks is worth more than Stafford alone. The Jets and Dolphins are the 2nd and 3rd picks, and I don’t see any reason to think either team would trade that pick for Stafford. Miami in particular might be a great landing spot for a player like Stafford, but there was no indication that the Dolphins were willing to offer up the 3rd overall pick for Stafford.

Which means the Rams — and the NFL — must view Goff as a liability. Stafford alone isn’t worth the 3rd pick in the draft, but Stafford is worth the 3rd pick along with Goff’s contract.

In 2020, Derrick Henry had a monster season, rushing for 2,027 yards. In an era where the game continues to shift more to passing every year, Henry’s effort was truly remarkable. It’s also interesting that Buffalo WR Stefon Diggs led the NFL with 1,535 receiving yards.

That made 2020 a bit unusual: in recent seasons, the player with the most receiving yards tends to have a higher number than the player with the most rushing yards. That’s a reversal of how things used to be. The graph below shows the NFL’s rushing and receiving king in each season, and how many rushing or receiving yards they gained. For non-16 game seasons, the numbers were pro-rated to a 16-game era. [continue reading…]

Since the start of the 2010 season, no player has more rushing yards than LeSean McCoy. It is easy to forget, but McCoy spent some time as the starting running back for the 2019 Chiefs, even though he did not get a carry in the playoffs. McCoy rushed for 465 yards and 4 touchdowns in the regular season and did earn a ring with Kansas City and his former head coach.

It might be even easier to forget that McCoy is a member of the 2020 Buccaneers. He was signed in early August, before Leonard Fournette would make his way to Tampa Bay.  McCoy has been the team’s fourth string running back, behind Ronald Jones, Fournette, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. But no matter: McCoy is, technically, back in the Super Bowl, for the second year in a row.

If Tampa Bay wins, McCoy — who was arguably the best running back of the 2010s — will close out his career with a pair of rings with two teams that nobody will ever associate him with. That said, he would join a pretty exclusive list. Here are the eight players who have won back to back rings with different teams.

• The two famous members of the club pulled off this trick in 1994, as members of the San Francisco 49ers, and in a surrounding year with the Dallas Cowboys. One was Deion Sanders, who left Atlanta for San Francisco in 1994, and then San Francisco for Dallas in ’95. The other was Ken Norton, Jr., who spent the first six years of his career with Dallas, and won the Super Bowl in 1992 and 1993. Norton then joined the 49ers in ’94, where he spent the final seven seasons of his career. Hochstein and Norton are the only two players to win Super Bowls in three consecutive seasons.
• Guard Russ Hochstein was the next player to do so. He was drafted by Tampa Bay in 2001 and played in one game in 2002; he was waived in October and signed by the Patriots a week later. He stayed in New England through 2008, so Hochstein picked up a Super Bowl ring for his cup of coffee with the Bucs and then earned two more the next two seasons in New England. Hochstein was also a freshman with Nebraska in 1997, when the Cornhuskers were named national champions by USA Today and ESPN. He’s got a lot of hardware!
• Defensive back Derrick Martin played in five games for the Packers in 2010 and 14 for the Giants in 2011. Sure, Martin had just 1 interception and 14 tackles during those two years, but it counts!
• Brandon Browner was the next to do it, and he had a big role in both title teams.  He was a star on the ’13 Seahawks, although he was suspended towards the end of the season and did not play in the team’s postseason run. He joined New England in 2014, and then made the play of the game — or, perhaps, the assist of the game — to help the Patriots defeat his former team. ^[1]Caylin Hauptmann was also a member of the 2013 Seahawks, and he was signed by the 2014 Patriots.  I don’t believe he should be included, but if you want to, feel free!
• LeGarrette Blount led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2016 with New England, picking up a ring with the Patriots that season.  The next year he joined the Eagles, and scored a touchdown in Philadephia’s Super Bowl win over his former team. Chris Long was also a rotational defensive linemen on both the ’16 Patriots and ’17 Eagles.
• Surely you don’t remember that Kenjon Barner was the kickoff returner for the ’17 Eagles, do you?  Barner, a star of Oregon under Chip Kelly, joined Philadelphia under Kelly’s watch and survived with the team through 2017.  The next season, he was signed by the Patriots and rushed for 71 yards before being cut in midseason.  No matter: when the ’18 Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl, Barner received a ring.  Literally.  Oh, and guess what? Barner is also a member of the ’20 Buccaneers, although he is unlikely to play in Super Bowl LV.  But I assume he is definitely ready for a third ring in four years.

How do Kansas City and Tampa Bay compare to previous Super Bowl participants when it comes to scoring and preventing points? Without any adjustments for era, these two teams look like awful defensive teams and very good (but not historically great) offensive teams.

In the graph below, the X-Axis shows points scored per game, while the Y-Axis shows points allowed per game. The best teams would be in the lower right, at least according to this metric. The Bucs and Chiefs are color-coded, with Super Bowl winners in black circles and losers in white circles. The ’99 Rams are in the lower right corner at 33 points per game and 15 points allowed per game; the ’13 Broncos are the team at the far upper right, while the ’11 Giants, of course, are in the upper left: they are the only Super Bowl team to allow more points than they scored. [continue reading…]

The Saints have been defined by Sean Payton and Drew Brees for 15 years. And because of that, we tend to think about the Saints as a team that won a Super Bowl — even if the New Orleans championship team was over a decade ago.

The current Saints team — with offensive stars like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, and a host of talented defensive players (Demario Davis,  Cameron Jordan, Marcus Williams and Marshon Lattimore, among others) — has not tasted championship success despite a remarkable amount of regular season success. In fact, they haven’t even made the Super Bowl. And with Brees now retiring, it looks like the curtain will close on what is easily the best four-year run in New Orleans regular season history.

Over the last four years, New Orleans has the most wins of any team (49), scored the second-most points behind Kansas City, and allowed the fifth fewest points.

Such great regular season success often results in a championship or two, and almost always results in a Super Bowl appearance. The Saints have a 0.766 winning percentage over the last four seasons, making them just the 4th franchise in the Super Bowl era to have such a high level of regular season success without making it to a Super Bowl.

The Dallas Cowboys from 1966 to 1969 had a similar streak of disappointing endings. In ’66, Dallas went 10-3-1 with the best offense in football; they lost to the Lombardi Packers in the NFL title game, the first time such game was the precursor to the Super Bowl. In ’67, Dallas went 9-5 but lost to the Packers in the Ice Bowl, again on the doorstep of the Super Bowl. In 1968, Dallas went 12-2, beating the Browns easily in the regular season but losing to them in the playoffs.

Don Meredith had led Dallas to a 27-9-1 mark from ’66 to ’68, but was embarrassed by Cleveland in the ’68 postseason, going 3 for 9 for 42 yards with three interceptions before being benched. At 31 years old, Meredith retired after the season. Enter Craig Morton, who led the ’69 Cowboys to an 11-2-1 mark in 1969… before the team again saw their season end at the hands of the Browns. Four seasons, a 0.768 winning percentage, and no Super Bowl appearances. The next year, Morton (with some help from Roger Staubach) and Dallas went 10-4 and finally reached it to the title game… before losing to the Colts. The year after, in 1971, Staubach helped Dallas finally reach the mountain top, winning Super Bowl VI.

The Oakland Raiders had a similar rough stretch from ’72 to ’75. In 1972, under Daryle Lamonica, the Raiders went 10-3-1 and ended the year on a 6-game winning streak. In the playoffs, it took the Immaculate Reception to defeat Oakland. In 1973, Ken Stabler became the starter, and while the Raiders would go 9-4-1 and avenge the playoff loss to Pittsburgh in the ’73 postseason, Oakland would still come up short against the defending Super Bowl champion Dolphins, who would repeat in ’73. In 1974 the Raiders went 12-2 and led the NFL in scoring; they would get their revenge against Miami in a memorable way in the playoffs, but once again were bested by the Steelers in the postseason. In 1975, Oakland had another great regular season that ended in a third straight loss in the AFC Championship Game, again to the Steelers. Over that 4-year run, the Raiders had a 0.768 winning percentage, but no Super Bowl appearances. Finally, in year five, Oakland would go 13-1, beat a depleted Steelers team in the playoffs, and then make — and win — their first Super Bowl.

The last franchise to discuss had a much longer run of frustration and did not ever result in redemption. The Los Angeles Rams from ’73 to ’76 had a 0.795 winning percentage, while the ’75 to ’78 squads went won 76.7% of their games. The ’67 to ’70 Rams also qualify with a 0.768 winning percentage during that four year run. Guard Tom Mack was on the Rams from ’66 to ’78; Merlin Olsen was a Ram from ’62 to ’77, so let’s call these the Mack/Olsen Rams.

Let’s look at the Rams from ’66, when Roman Gabriel took over as the starting quarterback, through the end of the ’70s. There was a constant shuffling of coaches and quarterbacks during the Mack/Olsen era,

The ’75 to ’78 Rams won 77% of their games and lost in the NFC Championship Game three times. From ’67 to ’70, Los Angeles twice missed the playoffs despite strong seasons, and twice lost in the division round to the eventual NFC Champion. But the period from ’73 to ’76 takes the cake: L.A. went 44-11-1 in the regular season but never made it to the Super Bowl. Minnesota went 45-10 and made it to three Super Bowls during this window, with Dallas (who beat the Rams in the playoffs in ’75) earning the other NFC appearance.

And then we have the Saints. New Orleans has won 11, 13, 13, and 12 games over the last four seasons. The 2017 season ended with the Minnesota Miracle; in 2018, the Saints earned the #1 seed but lost to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, with a key defensive pass interference by Rams cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman going uncalled. In 2019, New Orleans went 13-3 in the rare year where that landed them the three seed. That bad luck continued, with wildcard Minnesota once again upsetting the Saints and ending their season. And finally, in 2020, the Saints swept the Bucs in the regular season and earned the #2 seed in the NFC, but lost the third game against Tampa Bay in the Division Round.

Two years ago, I wrote that 2018 gave us The Most Offensive-Powered Final Four Ever. Well, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes are back, this time joined by the Packers and Aaron Rodgers and the Bills and Josh Allen (as opposed to the Saints and Drew Brees and the Rams and Sean McVay–bot in ’18). In 2018, the top four teams in scoring made it to the final four: it doesn’t get any more clear cut than that.

This year, the top three scoring teams — Green Bay, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay, in order — are in the final four. They are joined by the Chiefs, who ranked 3rd in the AFC (behind Tennessee) and 6th in the NFL in scoring (also behind New Orleans). Saying that Kansas City has the worst offense of any playoff team left is a bit like saying that Batman is the superhero with the weakest powers; you may have a bunch of evidence, but nobody is going to take your claim very seriously. It is also worthwhile to point that that the Chiefs ranked 2nd in the NFL in scoring after 16 weeks, before benching Patrick Mahomes and several other starters in a meaningless week 17 game and falling to 6th in the rankings.

And while this year may not have the final four according to the ranks, it is certainly up there as one of the highest-powered final fours of all time. In 2020, NFL teams averaged 24.8 points per game; the Packers led the league by averaging 31.8 points per game, or 7.0 points per game better than average. There have been 204 teams to make it to the conference championship game since 1970, and I calculated how many points per game each team scored relative to league average in each season. I also did the same for points allowed. The graph below shows all 204 teams, with their points scored per game relative to league average on the X-Axis, and the points allowed metric on the Y-Axis. In other words:

Top right = good offense, good defense
Top left = bad offense, good defense
Bottom left = bad offense, bad defense
Bottom right = good offense, bad defense

As you would expect, most of the teams that make it to the conference championship game fall in the upper right quadrant. I have color-coded the 2020 teams in the graph below. [continue reading…]

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady meet again: Can you feel the hype?

Both players were born in California, played college football in California, and were drafted by cold-weather teams.

Both players were first round picks to teams in green jerseys.

Both players have thrown exactly 89 career interceptions in the NFL.

And one season, at the start of a new decade, both Sanchez and Rodgers got trounced by a Tom Brady-led team. In 2010, in a game against the Patriots, Sanchez went 17 for 33 for 164 yards with 0 TDs, 3 interceptions, and 1 sack for 15 yards, producing an anemic 0.41 ANY/A as the Jets lost 45-3. In 2020, in a game in Tampa Bay, Rodgers went 16 for 35 for 160 yards with 0 TDs, 2 interceptions, and 4 sacks for 42 yards, a 0.72 ANY/A average; the Packers lost 38-10.

But Sanchez would get a chance to exact revenge in the postseason, and it was served ice cold: the Jets won, the largest regular season margin ever avenged in a game at the same site in the playoffs. This year’s Packers/Buccaneers game is a little different. For starters, the Jets actually had beaten New England earlier in the year, while Green Bay and Tampa Bay are no longer division rivals and only played once during the regular season. More importantly, while the 2010 Patriots were the better team and the home team, this time around, Brady’s team looks to be the worse team and is on the road.

So enough with the constant Sanchez/Rodgers comparisons. Let’s begin looking at situations similar to what will be playing out on Sunday in the NFC Championship Game: that is, times where a team met once (and only once) during the regular season, and then met again in the playoffs.

There have been three 40+ point wins in the regular season that saw rematches in the postseason: in all three, the regular season team won again.  Those three games were, with the team that got blown out listed first, 1969 CLE @ MIN, 1991 DET @ WAS, and 2018 PHI @ NOR.  You will notice that in all three games (along with many of the other, less than 40 point blowouts), the team that got blown out — for lack of a better words, let’s call them the Packers of history — were on the road in the rematch.  And that’s part of what makes the Green Bay/Tampa Bay game less common.

The Packers will be 3.5 point favorites in the NFC Championship Game. So a better comparison might be the 2016 Chiefs and Steelers. In 2016, Kansas City was very good: they finished 12-4, but they were blown out, 43-14, on the road in Pittsburgh during the regular season. Pittsburgh went 11-5, and so the postseason game was in Kansas City. That sounds similar to the upcoming Green Bay/Tampa Bay game, with the rematch switching venues to the home of the better team. The Chiefs were 2.5 point favorites in that game, which they… well, lost, 18-16.

There have been 20 teams in the Super Bowl era that are facing something “similar” to what the Packers have this weekend. That means they:

• Lost by double digits in the lone regular season game against the playoff opponent
• The rematch was at the site of the “Packers” team
• The “Packers” were favored to win the postseason rematch

How did previous Packers teams fare? They went 14-6, meaning the Chiefs/Steelers game referenced above was an outlier. If you want an example that Packers fans will be happy about, let’s use a very topical pair of teams. In 1993, the Buffalo Bills hosted the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC Championship Game. In the regular season, in a game on the road at Arrowhead, the Bills were easily handled by the Chiefs, 23-7. In the rematch, Buffalo — the “Packers” in this example — was favored by 3 points, despite going up against an old man considered the greatest quarterback of all time: Joe Montana. Buffalo did win the rematch easily, 30-13, and knocked Montana out of the game.

Here are all 20 games, with the “Packers” team — the one that got blown out in the regular season but hosted the rematch — listed first. Excluding four games that are red herrings, the home team went 11-5 in the rematch. Whether you think that’s good (hey, they got blown out the first time and won over 2/3s of their games) — or bad (they were favored to win and only won 11 out of 16 times) is up to you. It’s also worth pointing out that at least three of the times the home team exacted revenge involved some pretty miraculous circumstances, ^[1]The Comeback, The Catch II, Ray Hamilton. and this pretty easily could have been an 8-8 split.

Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

The 2018 Draft Class was hailed as one of the best of all time. Where do things stand after three years? At a high level, it looks like there are three winners and two losers — after all, three of those quarterbacks will be starting games this weekend in the division round of the playoffs, while the other two were huge busts for their drafting team. But let’s dig a little deeper:

• Baker Mayfield was the first overall pick and has had an up-and-down run with Cleveland. Overall, he’s done enough to show that he deserves to keep the starting job, but he has not had a top-10 quarterback season since entering the league. Probably a bit below the expectations that come with the number one overall pick, but Cleveland fans are not unhappy.
• Sam Darnold was the third overall draft pick, selected by the New York Jets. It has not gone well.
• Josh Allen was the 7th overall pick and is probably the toughest player to evaluate. He was awful as a rookie, bad as a second-year player, and then played like a top-5 quarterback in 2020. He looks like a big win for Buffalo, and he adds a lot of value as a runner; that said, as a passer, he’s actually been below average over the course of his three seasons.
• Josh Rosen has been the clear worst quarterback of the group, and his team moved on from him after just one year. Rosen has been worse than Darnold on a per play basis, but given that Arizona replaced him with Kyler Murray, you could argue that the Cardinals were hurt less by the Rosen pick than the Jets were with Darnold. Rosen has been a fast burn, like a Johnny Manziel, while Darnold more fits the Joey Harrington or Rick Mirer slow burn mold.
• Lamar Jackson is the quarterback least capable of being evaluated solely as a passer, because he’s been the most dynamic runner in the NFL since he entered the league. Still, he’s been a very good passer through three seasons, and has clearly been the most productive quarterback through three years.

The graph below shows all quarterbacks drafted over a 50-year period, from 1969 to 2018. The Y-Axis shows how much passing value over average they produced — calculated by taking each quarterback’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt average relative to league average in each season, and multiplying that by the number of dropbacks. The X-Axis shows each player’s draft value, which is based on their draft selection. The more highly drafted players are on the left side of the chart, while the later picks are on the right side of the chart. For the 2018 1st round quarterbacks, I made their bubbles larger and color-coded them by team.

And here is the full dataset; the table is sortable and searchable.