Previously:
Kelly and Allen discussing era adjustments.
These four AFC teams have something else in common: if you don’t adjust for era (which one should always do except when writing articles like these), they are currently guiding the best passing offenses in franchise history. This season, NFL teams are averaging 6.35 ANY/A, which would be the greatest passing season in league history. Now, Raiders fans may not think 1976 Ken Stabler has been guiding the team this year, but hey, we are ignoring era-adjustments in this article. As always, we are using Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt to grade the passing offenses. [continue reading…]
On Thanksgiving Day, 1965, the Baltimore Colts and the Detroit Lions battled to a 24-24 tie. In the New York Times report of the day, it was noted that Unitas was sacked four times by the Lions defense; well, technically, it was reported that he was “trapped” four times. 
That wasn’t such a big deal: the Lions defense would go on to lead the NFL in sacks with 49 that season, and no defense recorded more sacks than Detroit from 1960 to 1965. But the Thanksgiving performance was notable because it marked the 76th consecutive game that the Detroit Lions sacked the opposing quarterback.
The streak would end the following week against division rival San Francisco. John Brodie was a difficult man to take down; in 1965, the 49ers offense had the lowest sack rate in the NFL. Earlier in the season season, Detroit registered just one sack on Brodie, and in the rematch, Brodie dropped back 35 times without being trapped for a loss. [continue reading…]
Previously:
In 1980, after 11 games, Chargers tight end Kellen Winslow had 878 receiving yards, more than 300 ahead of every other tight end in the NFL. Houston’s Mike Barber (576) and Tampa Bay’s Jimmie Giles (506) were the only other tight ends with even 500 receiving yards. The Oilers other tight end, Dave Casper, was acquired via trade midseason and had just 387 yards at the time. By the end of the year, Casper would finish with the second most receiving yards of any tight end in football, at 796. But Winslow blew him out of the water, with 1,290 receiving yards. That number was second in the entire NFL, but also just second on San Diego in receiving yards behind John Jefferson (and just ahead of teammate Charlie Joiner, who ranked 3rd in the AFC in receiving yards and 4th in the NFL).
Twenty years later, Chiefs superstar Tony Gonzalez had 828 receiving yards through 11 games; Shannon Sharpe (602), Freddie Jones (582) and Kyle Brady (570) were the only other tight ends with 500 yards at that time. By season’s end, Gonzalez would rack up 1,203 receiving yards for Kansas City, nearly 400 yards ahead of every other tight end in the league (Sharpe finished with 810).
Twenty years later, the current Chiefs superstar tight end is threatening to set a new record. Travis Kelce has 978 receiving yards after 11 games, and no other tight end is within shouting distance of him. Raiders TE Darren Waller is second in the NFL with 542 receiving yards, Lions TE T.J. Hockenson has 530, and Chargers TE Hunter Henry has 502 (by NFL fiat, the Chargers must always have a good tight end). Kelce could stop playing today and he’d probably finish the season with the most receiving yards of any tight end. Right now, he has a lead of 436 receiving yards, a remarkable 39.6 yard per game average.
Interesting trivia aside, I didn’t bring up the 20-year intervals at random. Those two seasons represent the largest difference in receiving yards between the top tight end and number two tight end in history. [1]I will note that there is some ambiguity in position labels from the early 1960s, and you may be able to argue that say, Mike Ditka had a larger lead if say, you want to quibble with calling Monty … Continue reading Sharpe’s advantage was 393 yards, while Casper’s edge was a mammoth 494 yards. But Kelce is on pace to shatter that record, and should easily win the receiving TE crown by around 600 yards. It is even possible, if unlikely, that he will have more than twice as many yards as every other tight end in the NFL. Kelce, like Winslow in 1980, is second in the AFC in receiving yards and second on his own team: Tyreek Hill leads all AFC players with 1,021 yards, second in the NFL only to Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf (1,039).
It was only last season that Kelce quietly made history: he led the AFC in receiving yards, the first tight end to lead a conference in receiving yards since 1972. But this year, Kelce looks even more valuable. In part, his dominance is a reflection of the struggles for the other top tight ends in the league. George Kittle missed most of 2020 with an injury, Waller has been hurt by the addition of Nelson Agholor and a more run-heavy offense, Mark Andrews has disappeared with the rest of the Ravens passing offense, and Zach Ertz has gone down with the Carson Wentz ship. But let’s not take anything away from Kelce: He’s been absolutely outstanding for years, and yet might be currently in the middle of his best season ever.
References
| ↑1 | I will note that there is some ambiguity in position labels from the early 1960s, and you may be able to argue that say, Mike Ditka had a larger lead if say, you want to quibble with calling Monty Stickles a tight end. |
|---|
You remember Brian St. Pierre, don’t you? The former Boston College star was drafted by the Steelers in the 5th round of the 2003 Draft, and then bounced around the league for years without ever starting a game. In 2010, the Carolina Panthers drafted Jimmy Claussen in the second round, but that didn’t stop the quarterback problems that plagued the team. Carolina bottomed out under John Fox, going 2-14 and setting the team up to draft Cam Newton the following April. Claussen was terrible as a rookie and a shoulder injury to Matt Moore left the Panthers down to their third string quarterback, rookie Tony Pike.
At the time, St. Pierre was holding down one of the world’s most noble positions: stay at home dad. But with Moore’s shoulder injury ending his season, and Claussen dealing with a concussion, St. Pierre was signed to compete with Pike. During practice this week, St. Pierre “won” the job, and that meant the former B.C. star would finally start an NFL game: just one week shy of his 31st birthday! The results, however, were not straight out of a fairy tale. [continue reading…]
[[Update: Mahomes hit the 1,500 pass attempt mark in week 11 against Tampa Bay, and did so with exactly 1,000 completions. He had thrown for 12,782 passing yards, with 105 TDs and 20 INTs. That translates to an amazing 110.9 passer rating. When he threw that 1500th pass, a 9-yard completion to Demarcus Robinson right after the 2-minute warning in the first half, he automatically became the all-time career leader in passer rating. He moved ahead of Deshaun Watson (103.6), who had just moved ahead of Rodgers (103.3) after his great performance on Thanksgiving. Mahomes is now the newest career passer rating king, and will finish the 2020 season — and probably several more — as the all-time leader.]]
To qualify for the career leaderboard in rate statistics, a passer needs to record 1,500 pass attempts.
Aaron Rodgers reached the 1,500 pass attempt threshold on November 28, 2010 in a loss to the Falcons. At the time, his career passer rating was a few hundredths of a point behind Philip Rivers (97.34 to 97.28). As of Christmas, 2010, Rivers still held a narrow lead, but Rodgers passed him (with little fanfare) in week 16. And since week 16 of the 2010 season, Rodgers has been alone atop the passer rating leaderboard.
But in a couple of weeks, he will lose his crown. That’s because Patrick Mahomes, he of the 110.5 career passer rating, is coming up on 1,500 career pass attempts. When he does, he will become the newest passer rating king. The statistic wasn’t first used in the NFL until the 1973 season, but we can still create a historical archive (which is exactly what PFR’s Mike Kania did). The graph below shows the career leader in passer rating after every season, minimum 1,500 NFL attempts, color-coded by team. [continue reading…]
Previously:
In week 8 — which was nearly two weeks ago, my apologies — there were three teams that really leaned on the ground game. Buffalo never led by more than 8 points against New England, and the game was very close throughout. Despite this, the Bills ran on two-thirds of their plays. Buffalo running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss carried 28 times for 167 yards and two touchdowns, while Josh Allen struggled most of the day as a passer. And, as you might have guessed, Allen contributed as a runner: he had three scrambles for 24 yards and three more designed runs (he finished with 10 carries on the day, owing to four kneels). But a 2-to-1 run/pass ratio in a 3-point win is almost unheard of in the modern era, absent crazy weather or a running quarterback. Had I published this article on time, I could have had scathing criticism for Allen as a passer or the Bills offensive design, but in week 9, the Bills went super pass-heavy and won(more on this later in the week). So consider this a one-week anomaly, or a reaction to the Patriots defense (or both). [continue reading…]
The Jets are 0-8 and in the pilot’s seat for the #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jaguars have lost seven straight games and have a difficult remaining schedule; Jacksonville is in the co-pilot seat with a realistic chance to take the top spot. It’s difficult to imagine the Jets going 3-5 down the stretch, and even a 2-6 finish may be optimistic. But what if the Jets and Jaguars finish with the same record, either at 1-15 or 2-14? Who would get Trevor Lawrence?
The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule, with the team having the easier schedule winning the better draft pick. The logic being if two teams have the same record, the team that did so against a weaker schedule is probably the worse team. So if you are a Jets fan, you probably should be worried that right now, the Jets project to have the toughest schedule in the NFL as of the end of the 2020 season. That leaves no margin for error in the Tank for Trevor. The Jets face the NFC West, the AFC West, the Colts and the Browns, along with the other teams in the AFC East… while also giving 14-16 of those teams one free win. So it’s not surprising that the Jets project to have the toughest schedule.
But is there a change the Jaguars schedule leapfrogs the Jets for the toughest? Let’s compare the two teams schedules.
Ignore the Browns and Chargers
The Jets play all teams in the AFC West while the Jaguars play the full AFC North. But the Jets also play the Browns and the Jaguars also play the Chargers, so these are two common opponents that we can ignore.
There are two other common opponents — the Jets play the Colts and the Jaguars play the Dolphins, but those teams still matter since the other team plays that opponent two times.
The other 14 games
I looked at Football Outsiders projected wins for each team. Here is each opponent for the Jets and Jaguars, from best to worst: [continue reading…]
Previously:
It was 18 years ago that Herm Edwards made his famous “You Play To Win The Game” speech. That came after the Jets had a loss in their 7th game of the season, dropping the team’s record to 2-5.
With that backdrop, let’s move on to some…. curious…. coaching decisions after seven weeks of the 2020 NFL season.
Before getting to the data, I want you to think about how the following game would unfold. A team trails by at least 14 points at halftime and ultimately loses by at least 21 points. This is your classic blowout, a game that wasn’t competitive for very long. Now, how frequently would you expect the losing team to pass? From a Game Scripts perspective, this is obviously a game that would heavily incentive throwing the football. However, sometimes teams just give up. [continue reading…]
Over the last three and a half seasons, the Giants have the worst record in football. In fact, it’s not particularly close: since the start of the 2017 season, the Giants are 13-42. The Jets have the second worst mark, at 16-39, the Bengals are 16-38-1, and every other team has a winning percentage at least 10% higher than the Giants.
But does it feel like the Giants have been by far the worst team in the NFL? Probably not: they’ve been bad, but not even necessarily all that noticeably bad. And I think the biggest reason for that is New York has been relatively competitive over this stretch. The Giants don’t even rank in the bottom three in points differential since the start of the 2017 season: the Jets, Raiders, and Dolphins all have fared worse. Along with Tampa Bay (more on them in a moment), the Giants have been a large outlier in terms of underperforming, at least when we measure their points scored and points allowed numbers relative to their winning percentage. [continue reading…]
Previously:
On Monday night in Buffalo, the Kansas City Chiefs produced one of the most run-happy games of the Andy Reid era. On a rainy night where the Bills defense consistently dared the Chiefs to run the ball, Kansas City didn’t take the bait, running 44 times for 247 yards and15 first downs. The Chiefs punted on the opening drives of both halves, but that was it: otherwise, Kansas City was able to consistently move the ball on the Bills without relying much on more than the threat of Patrick Mahomes. It was the sort of performance you would expect from that other AFC powerhouse: last year, the Ravens had a record four games with 240+ rushing yards and a 120+ passer rating, marks the Chiefs met in the win over Buffalo. With Le’Veon Bell coming on to the roster, the Kansas City offense should only get more potent.
The full week 6 Game Scripts, below. [continue reading…]
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been benched in Miami in favor of Tua Tagovila. This doesn’t come as a big surprise, of course: Fitzpatrick is a 38-year-old journeyman who is always on the verge of being benched for the next big thing.
But Fitzpatrick’s career has been fascinating to watch. I calculated his Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt for each game of his career, and then compared that to league average for that season. That is plotted in the graph below: the X-axis is each game of his career in chronological order, the Y-Axis is how many Adjusted Net Yards of value he added over average, and the size of the dot represents how many dropbacks he had. And, of course, given that this is Fitzpatrick, it is color-coded by team: [continue reading…]
Previously:
Passing efficiency was way down in week 6. While passing stats were outstanding at the beginning of the season, the league-wide passer rating this week was just 85.4. There were only 46 touchdown passes and a whopping 28 interceptions along with 55 sacks, while completion percentage was just 61.3%. Nowhere was the efficiency drop more obvious than with Aaron Rodgers, who had arguably the worst game of his career. He averaged 0.72 ANY/A, the first time in his career he’s been under 1.0 ANY/A for a game since he became a starter. He and Joe Flacco battled it out for the worst performance of the week, with the Jets new starter only having the advantage of a higher number of below-average passing plays. Flacco also produced an unholy 15% passing first down rate, easily the worst mark of the week.
Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson, and Jimmy Garoppolo were the top passers in a down week. Each averaged over 13.0 Adjusted Yards per Dropback, and Garoppolo in particular had a huge turnaround from his disastrous week five performance. The 49ers had the best passing first down rate of the week at 48%; San Francisco has been all over the map this season in terms of passing first down rate, including a 50% rate in week 3 and a 20% rate in week 5. Ryan was brilliant and had his 8th game with 4 TDs and 0 INTs; perhaps the most remarkable thing about that stat is this was just his fifth win in those games. As for Watson, more on him in a moment.
Below are the week 6 passing stats. [continue reading…]
Previously:
You might not expect Nick Foles and Tom Brady — at least, the 2020 versions of those guys — to engage in an all out aerial assault. And while the quality wasn’t there, the quantity certainly was: combined, the two quarterbacks had 89 dropbacks, while the two teams called just 30 running plays (excluding QB sneaks and kneeldowns). That is a remarkably pass-heavy game, the likes of which we typically only see once a year. But in terms of passing efficiency, it was … not so great. The Bears were particularly notable: you often see a team have a poor passing day and also be pass-happy, but that’s usually because they lost the game; you rarely seem a team win, run just 14 times, and average under 5 yards per pass! In fact, it hadn’t happened since 2013, and it had only happened 9 times since the merger! Of course, Chicago wasn’t very effective on the ground, so passing still was the optimal strategy.
For Tampa Bay, this was just more evidence that Tampa Tom is in full control of the offense. The Bucs are 5th in pass attempts despite usually playing with a lead; on Thursday Night against Chicago, the Bucs finished with a +3.6 Game Script and still passed on nearly 70% of their plays. Running back Ronald Jones II, who was the only player other than Brady to have a run or pass, finished with 17 carries; Brady finished with 43 plays! That means 72% of all Tampa plays — mind you, in a game they were usually leading — went through Brady.
The full week 5 Game Scripts below. [continue reading…]
Previously:
In 2015, Ryan Fitzpatrick had a breakout year for the Jets at the age of 33; not only did he post the first winning season of his career, but he set a career high in both yards and touchdowns. In 2016, Fitzpatrick and the Jets had a contract dispute that lasted nearly the entire offseason; he struggled in ’16, and looked to be finished.
Since then? He’s been a backup in Tampa Bay, posted league-leading efficiency numbers in Tampa Bay, been a backup in Miami, played well in Miami, been a mentor to a rookie in Miami, produced a two-incompletion game with the Dolphins, and … at almost 38 years old, just posted the top passing performance of week five of the 2020 season.
On the road in San Francisco, Fitzpatrick had 30 dropbacks and gained 342 yards, with 3 TDs and no interceptions. He also scrambled once, for a 17-yard first down. That gave him 13 first downs on 31 dropbacks, but his day was marked mostly by big plays: there was a 70-yard completion to Mike Gesicki, 47- and 32-yard deep passes to Preston Williams, a screen to Matt Breida that went for 31 yards (all YAC), and two deep passes to DeVante Parker for 28 and 22 yards.
The second-best passing performance of week five belongs to another former Jets quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater. The former Vikings star was signed by New York in 2018, but traded before ever playing a game with the Jets. Bridgewater’s raw stats were pleasing enough to the eye — 313 yards, 2 TDs, no interceptions or sacks — but it was the first down rate that set him apart. He picked up a first down on 18 of 37 dropbacks, and five of Carolina’s eight drives ended in scores. That was the second-highest first down rate of the week, slightly behind Ryan Tannehill’s 50% rate.
The full week 5 passing stats, below. [continue reading…]
Previously:
In week 3, the Bengals passed on 74% of their plays against Philadelphia in a game where Cincinnati led after three quarters (and ultimately tied). In week 4, the 49ers passed on 71% of their plays against Philadelphia in a game where San Francisco led after three quarters (and ultimately lost in the final minutes). In 2018 and 2019, there just were 7 games each season where a team led after three quarters and still passed on 71% of their plays; it’s happened against the Eagles now in back to back weeks!
Interestingly, during the first two weeks of the season, Eagles opponents were extremely run-heavy, even after accounting for Game Script. Philadelphia faced a league-high 75 rushing plays in the first two games of the season, but have been the most pass-happy defense since then. I don’t have a good explanation for this one — the 49ers don’t profile as a pass-happy team, but wound up having 50 dropbacks between their second and third string quarterbacks.
The full Week 4 Game Scripts below:
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | @ | DAL | Boxscore | 49 | 38 | 11 | 11.5 | 33 | 40 | 45.2% | 61 | 18 | 77.2% |
| CAR | ARI | Boxscore | 31 | 21 | 10 | 11.4 | 37 | 35 | 51.4% | 32 | 23 | 58.2% | |
| BAL | @ | WAS | Boxscore | 31 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 24 | 32 | 42.9% | 48 | 22 | 68.6% |
| GNB | ATL | Boxscore | 30 | 16 | 14 | 10.3 | 34 | 26 | 56.7% | 43 | 25 | 63.2% | |
| IND | @ | CHI | Boxscore | 19 | 11 | 8 | 8.2 | 30 | 38 | 44.1% | 43 | 16 | 72.9% |
| BUF | @ | OAK | Boxscore | 30 | 23 | 7 | 6.7 | 35 | 24 | 59.3% | 46 | 23 | 66.7% |
| MIN | @ | HOU | Boxscore | 31 | 23 | 8 | 6.7 | 25 | 40 | 38.5% | 35 | 27 | 56.5% |
| SEA | @ | MIA | Boxscore | 31 | 23 | 8 | 5.5 | 36 | 26 | 58.1% | 46 | 22 | 67.6% |
| KAN | NWE | Boxscore | 26 | 10 | 16 | 5.1 | 30 | 25 | 54.5% | 39 | 35 | 52.7% | |
| NOR | @ | DET | Boxscore | 35 | 29 | 6 | 4.6 | 27 | 42 | 39.1% | 34 | 22 | 60.7% |
| LAR | NYG | Boxscore | 17 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 23 | 59.6% | 41 | 25 | 62.1% | |
| CIN | JAX | Boxscore | 33 | 25 | 8 | 3.6 | 37 | 34 | 52.1% | 43 | 20 | 68.3% | |
| DEN | @ | NYJ | Boxscore | 37 | 28 | 9 | 1.2 | 31 | 32 | 49.2% | 50 | 24 | 67.6% |
| PHI | @ | SFO | Boxscore | 25 | 20 | 5 | 0.4 | 31 | 27 | 53.4% | 50 | 20 | 71.4% |
| TAM | LAC | Boxscore | 38 | 31 | 7 | -3.9 | 46 | 27 | 63% | 27 | 23 | 54% |
The Vikings and Saints profiled as the two run-heavy teams of the week. For Minnesota, this is hardly a surprise; the Vikings have been trying for years to be a run-heavy team, even if the personnel (or salary cap hits) didn’t always dictate that.
The Giants have 306 rushing yards this year, and quarterback Daniel Jones has 137 of them, leaving just 169 for the rest of the team.
In the passing game, Jones has thrown every pass for New York through four weeks in 2020. He has picked up 889 passing yards and also lost 83 yards due to sacks. If we look at his advanced splits, we see that 541 of his passing yards have come through the air, with 348 yards coming via yards after the catch. A quarterback is not fully responsible for his air yards, and a quarterback also plays a role in how much YAC his receivers gain. That said, I thought it would be fun to engage in a bit of fiction and treat all air yards as belonging to the quarterback, and all YAC as belonging to the receivers.
In that case, Jones has gained 137 rushing yards, thrown for 541 yards, and lost 83 yards due to sacks, for a total of 595 yards. That is not very much, but consider: all other Giants have gained just 169 yards on the ground and 348 after the catch, for a pitiful total of just 517 yards. So Jones has been responsible for 53.5% of all Giants yards in 2020, which is actually the largest percentage of any player in the league.
To go to the opposite extreme, let’s go visit newly benched quarterback Dwayne Haskins in Washington. The Football Team has rushed for 369 yards, with Haskins only adding 30 yards on the ground. And while the 2018 first round pick has thrown for 939 yards this year, most of them have come after the catch: Haskins has just 362 air yards, compared to 577 yards added after the catch by his receivers (Washington running backs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic have combined for 21 receptions and 176 yards, but 190 of those yards came after the catch; in addition, wide receiver Terry McLaurin leads all wideouts through four weeks in YAC with 198 yards.) Haskins has also lost 101 yards on sacks so far this season: add it up, and Haskins is responsible for adding only 291 yards of offense (30+362-101) by this methodology, while his teammates have picked up 916 yards of offense (339 rushing yards and 577 of YAC). That puts Haskins as the main man for just 24.1% of the yards that Washington’s offense has gained this year.
I used this methodology for every team in the league. Only two quarterbacks, Jones and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami, are responsible for over half of their team’s offense. Among teams that have winning records, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen stand out as two quarterbacks who have gained over 48% of their team’s offenses. After them, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady stand out (all over 45%) as no other quarterback is on a team with 3+ wins and has even 40% of his offense.
The full list is below. I also included what percentage of the team’s pass attempts each quarterback has taken, to help you identify quarterbacks who have missed some time. Here’s how to read the Lamar Jackson line. This year he has thrown for 516 air yards compared to having just 253 yards of YAC; he also has rushed for 235 yards. Jackson has lost 70 yards due to sacks, giving him a total of 681 responsible yards. As a team, Baltimore has 1,366 yards of offense, which means Lamar Jackson has been responsible for 49.9% of the team’s yards. Jackson has also taken 97% of the Ravens team pass attempts this year, and has a 3-1 record. [continue reading…]
Previously:
Pick a random week since 2012, and you wouldn’t be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady as the top 3 quarterbacks, would you? Add in another great game from Drew Brees, and it was an excellent week for the quartet of future Hall of Famers. Perhaps the four best quarterbacks of the last decade combined to throw for 1,302 yards and 13 touchdowns in week 4, with three interceptions and five sacks on 143 dropbacks. They picked up 69 first downs, for a whopping 48.2% passing first down rate. Meanwhile, in the city that never sleeps, the two quarterbacks selected early in the first round in the 2018 and 2019 Drafts were the two worst passers of the week.
The full week 4 passing data below: [continue reading…]
The entire NFC East is a combined +33.5 today.
— Mike Tanier (@MikeTanier) October 4, 2020
Let’s take a quick look at the point spread for the NFC East games today:
The Cowboys are 3.5 point home favorites against the Browns.
The Football Team are 14-point home dogs against the Ravens.
The Giants are 13.5-point underdogs in Los Angeles against the Rams.
The Eagles are 9-point road underdogs tonight in San Francisco.
Yes, indeed, Mr. Tanier is correct: the NFC East are underdogs of 33 or 33.5 points today (the Baltimore/Washington line has fluctuated between 14 and 14.5 points). That sounds like a lot. It is a lot. But how much of an outlier is that?
As it turns out, there has been just one week since 1978 (which is as far back as PFR’s points spread database goes back) where the collective points spread for Dallas, Washington, New York, and Philadelphia was worse: week 13 of the 1998 season. That was the week that Randy Moss had three 50+ yards touchdown catches on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys, Washington was 2-9 under Norv Turner but upset the Raiders, the Giants under Kent Graham were 13-point dogs against a high-powered 49ers team (and lost by 24), and the Eagles and Koy Detmer were 18-point dogs against the two-time defending NFC Champion Packers.
And that’s it. Week 4 of the 2020 season is the second-worst week in history, at least as far as perception relative to opponent goes, for this quartet of teams. [1]Note that I am not saying NFC East history, as I am excluding the Cardinals from this post. Here’s the average points spread over the course of each season since 1978 for the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, and the WFTFKATR. Remember, when looking at point spreads, it’s the reverse of points differential: a positive number indicates a weaker team. [continue reading…]
References
| ↑1 | Note that I am not saying NFC East history, as I am excluding the Cardinals from this post |
|---|
Previously:
The two football teams in Ohio have taken very different approaches to offensive football. With first overall pick Joe Burrow at quarterback, the Bengals have quickly become one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL. Cincinnati played Philadelphia to a tie in week three, and yet Burrow had 52 dropbacks while Cincinnati handed off the football just 17 times. This game was close throughout and yet the Bengals were still extremely pass-happy. In fact, since the start of the 2014 season there have been just four games where a team did not lose or trail by more than 6 points after the second and third quarters, and still passed on at least 74% of their plays: two Tom Brady games, one Aaron Rodgers game, and the Bengals in week three.
A week ago, I noted that Cleveland ran on 60% of their plays for the first time in 5 years. Well in week 3, the Browns trailed entering the 4th quarter, and yet still ran on 57% of plays. That has not happened for Cleveland since 2009 and has happened just five times since the Browns rejoined the NFL in 1999. The Browns were just the 14th team since the start of the 2015 season to meet those two thresholds, a sure sign that Cleveland is now one of the most run-heavy teams in football.
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | @ | JAX | Boxscore | 31 | 13 | 18 | 12.7 | 20 | 36 | 35.7% | 46 | 17 | 73% |
| IND | NYJ | Boxscore | 36 | 7 | 29 | 12.1 | 25 | 31 | 44.6% | 31 | 29 | 51.7% | |
| TAM | @ | DEN | Boxscore | 28 | 10 | 18 | 12.1 | 40 | 25 | 61.5% | 45 | 14 | 76.3% |
| SFO | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 36 | 9 | 27 | 8.5 | 38 | 35 | 52.1% | 34 | 15 | 69.4% |
| KAN | @ | BAL | Boxscore | 34 | 20 | 14 | 8.5 | 42 | 31 | 57.5% | 32 | 21 | 60.4% |
| BUF | LAR | Boxscore | 35 | 32 | 3 | 8.4 | 37 | 21 | 63.8% | 34 | 32 | 51.5% | |
| CAR | @ | LAC | Boxscore | 21 | 16 | 5 | 6.1 | 30 | 21 | 58.8% | 51 | 23 | 68.9% |
| NWE | OAK | Boxscore | 36 | 20 | 16 | 5.4 | 30 | 38 | 44.1% | 34 | 22 | 60.7% | |
| SEA | DAL | Boxscore | 38 | 31 | 7 | 4.3 | 44 | 26 | 62.9% | 59 | 21 | 73.8% | |
| CLE | WAS | Boxscore | 34 | 20 | 14 | 2.2 | 25 | 37 | 40.3% | 40 | 22 | 64.5% | |
| GNB | @ | NOR | Boxscore | 37 | 30 | 7 | 1.5 | 33 | 26 | 55.9% | 38 | 20 | 65.5% |
| DET | @ | ARI | Boxscore | 26 | 23 | 3 | 0.3 | 35 | 27 | 56.5% | 36 | 27 | 57.1% |
| PHI | CIN | Boxscore | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0.2 | 50 | 36 | 58.1% | 52 | 18 | 74.3% | |
| PIT | HOU | Boxscore | 28 | 21 | 7 | -1.8 | 38 | 38 | 50% | 32 | 15 | 68.1% | |
| TEN | @ | MIN | Boxscore | 31 | 30 | 1 | -2.8 | 37 | 35 | 51.4% | 29 | 33 | 46.8% |
| CHI | @ | ATL | Boxscore | 30 | 26 | 4 | -8.5 | 53 | 25 | 67.9% | 40 | 25 | 61.5% |
The Cowboys had one of the NFL’s most pass-heavy games in week three. Dak Prescott threw 57 passes, tied for the third most in Cowboys history. Dallas rarely passes this often, and when they do, it’s usually because of a large deficit. But against Seattle, the Cowboys were competitive most of the game and led late. Prescott himself was responsible for nearly half of the team’s rushing yards, too; he finished with 484 yards of offensive, setting a new Dallas franchise record.
Miami also checked in as very run-heavy in week three; the Dolphins ran on over 63% of plays in a game they handled most of the way. Miami finished with both the strongest game script and the strongest run ratio, but Miami still had a very run-heavy gameplan. A good comparison would be to Tampa Bay, who had a similar Game Script but once again checked in as super pass-happy. For the second straight week, Tom Brady and company went pass-happy in an easy win. Last week, the Bucs passed 61.4% of the time in a game with a +11.6 Game Script; this week, it was 61.5% with a +12.1 Game Script. From 2017 to 2020, there were only five games where a team led by double digits at the end of each quarter and threw on 61% of their pass plays; the 2020 Bucs are responsible for two of those games, and Tom Brady is responsible for three of them.
The more surprising development continues to be how pass-happy the Buffalo Bills have become. Buffalo had a Game Script of +8.4, albeit in a weird game that saw the team trailing in the final minute. Still, the Bills — who checked in as very pass-happy over the first two weeks — passed on 64% of their plays in week three. Among all winning teams, Buffalo had the second highest pass ratio in week 3, trailing only the Bears — who had a -8.5 Game Script! Josh Allen continues to be the engine in the Buffalo offense.
As for those Bears, it marked the second straight week where Atlanta lost with a Game Script of over +8.0. Meanwhile, the Jets gave up for the second week in a row, but what more is there to right about? At some point, the stats don’t really need to be broken down.