Let’s talk about little bit about Kellen Winslow II. Winslow’s life has been marked more by what’s happened off the field than what happened on the field, starting with being the son of a Hall of Famer, continuing with an awful motorcycle accident early in his career, and ending with a conviction for rape and a CTE diagnosis. On the field, Winslow was productive but played during the peak of the tight end era: Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten were all still in their prime, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham were setting single-seaosn records, and guys like Vernon Davis and Dallas Clark were productive Pro Bowlers.

Winslow produced solid numbers, but he did so in the worst of circumstances. During this time, his quarterbacks were mostly Josh Freeman and Derek Anderson, along with a season of Charlie Frye, and a few games from Josh Johnson, Brady Quinn, and end-of-career Byron Leftwich. On average, Winslow’s offenses were 0.87 ANY/A below average during the course of his career, weighted by how productive Winslow was each season. Among tight ends with at least 5,000 career receiving yards, that is — by a large measure — the worst group of passing offenses. The second-worst would be Todd Heap: About a quarter of his career came with the early days of Joe Flacco, and another quarter was defined by the Kyle Boller era. He caught passes from end-of-career Steve McNair, Anthony Wright, Jeff Blake, Chris Redman, Elvis Grbac, and also Kevin Kolb and John Skelton in Arizona. On average, Heap’s offenses finished 0.45 ANY/A below average.

Only three other tight ends with 5,000+ career receiving yards played on teams that finished at least 0.20 ANY/A below average: Rich Caster (who had a little bit of prime Joe Namath and then little else), Delanie Walker, and Greg Olsen. If you want to lower the threshold for tight end production, we should all feel badly for Chargers TE Freddie Jones, who played with Ryan Leaf and a string of bad quarterbacks who were either bad, very young, or very old (or two of those three). For his career, Jones’s passing offenses finished 1.46 ANY/A below average. We can also pour one out for Boston Patriots TE Jim Whalen, who was one of the best tight ends of the late ’60s. In 1968, as the Patriots finished with the second-worst passing offense in the AFL — the passing offense was 2.88 ANY/A below average — Whalen somehow was a first-team AP All-Pro. Among all tight ends who have been named first-team All-Pro in a season, that is the worst accompanying passing offense in history. Whalen was a consummate Massachusetts man: he was born and raised in Cambridge, starred at Boston College, and then was drafted and spent the first five years of his career with the Patriots. That said, most of his career was played with bad or out of their prime quarterbacks.

On the other side, Brent Jones had a pretty sweet set-up: he played most of his career with Steve Young or Joe Montana, and his average offense had a Relative ANY/A of +2.00.  Second on the list would be Rob Gronkowski, who of course played with Tom Brady.  And if you lower the minimum threshold, nobody had it easier than Aaron Hernandez, who played his entire, short career during Brady’s prime.

I looked at the careers of over 100 tight ends and calculated how productive their average passing offense was. Regular readers may recall that I previously used a similar methodology to grade wide receivers. Let’s use Vernon Davis as an example.  He’s experienced it all, from the early struggles of Alex Smith to the efficient version, the dark days of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith, but also the good days of Colin Kaepernick and Kirk Cousins. [continue reading…]

Welcome to part four in my series The Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in history. Today’s section of the list covers players 939-901. Here, you’ll find some underrated skill players, a few somewhat anonymous defenders who are fondly remembered only by fans of their team, and a few more current young bloods on their way to becoming full fledged legends. Don’t forget to send complaints to DeleteSansReading@gmail.com.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.
The Grand List, part 3: Includes players 964-940.

Let’s have at it then.

The List, Continued

939. Anthony Carter (1983-1995)
Wide Receiver
Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, Michigan Panthers, Oakland Invaders

Carter was a great deep threat, best known for his 1987 campaign, a season in which he had a remarkable 24.3 yards per catch in the regular season before exploding for 391 yards in the playoffs. The highlight of the season was a 227 yard outing against the heavily favored 49ers. San Francisco entered the game with the number three scoring defense and the league’s best DVOA against the pass. Carter shredded them. He had a short but high peak, and I believe he would have been a superstar on a team with a better quarterback or a more creative coach.

938. Derrick Henry (2016-Present)
Running Back
Tennessee Titans

Henry is a big, strong man who breaks arm tackles with ease, runs over defenders in the open field, and stiff arms tacklers into oblivion. His crowning achievement was the 2019 season, in which he captured a rushing title and led the league in rushing scores in the regular season before playing like a demigod in the playoffs. He moves far better than a man of his stature should, using his rare blend of speed and power to produce the second 99 yard touchdown run in NFL history. On that play, he outran defenders while manhandling others, demonstrating the range of his athletic capabilities.

937. Alvin Kamara (2017-Present)
Running Back
New Orleans Saints

Kamara possesses an uncanny combination of acceleration, power, and balance. His compact frame allows him to bounce off tackles as easily as he jukes them. He consistently generates yardage, even when he doesn’t break off huge plays, averaging over 99 yards from scrimmage per game in his young career. Kamara’s most valuable contribution comes in the passing game, where he has averaged just under 700 receiving yards per season.

936. Amani Toomer (1996-2008)
Wide Receiver
New York Giants

Toomer probably seems like an odd choice here. He never made a Pro Bowl or all pro team, and he didn’t produce a bevy of highlight reel type plays to trick us into thinking he was better than he actually was. Instead, he was kind of like the wide receiver version of The Eagles. That is to say he had a solid, steady career with several boring performances in a row. Tall and strong, Toomer was an excellent possession receiver who made boundary catches look mundane. His sure hands helped him haul in passes from the succession of mostly inaccurate passers he played with during his career. While two other receivers continue to get all the press, Toomer was New York’s leading receiver in their upset victory of the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. He was also a pretty good punt returner when called upon. [continue reading…]

In a few weeks, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be drafted early in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. In doing so, he will become the fourth Crimson Tide passer to get drafted in the first round (in addition to Hall of Famers Bart Starr and Ken Stabler, who were not first round picks).  But in the current, golden era of Alabama football, this isn’t much of a surprise: in fact, his former teammate, QB Jalen Hurts, will also hear his name announced during this draft.

Being born in Hawaii and of Samoan descent makes Tagovailoa a rarity in NFL circles, but not unique: he will join Marcus Mariota as the second such quarterback in the NFL.

But there is something particularly distinct about Tua: he throws the football with his left hand. The last quarterback in the NFL who was lefthanded was Kellen Moore, who went undrafted eight years ago in 2012 and has not thrown a pass in the NFL since 2015 (and, of course, is now the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys). The last southpaw quarterback to get drafted in the first round was Tim Tebow.

Over the last decade, the lefty has disappeared from the NFL passing landscape. Sure, you get the occasional lefthanded pass from a Tyreek Hill, Kevin Byard, or Antonio Brown, and the even rarer lefthanded toss by a righty, but the last time a lefthanded quarterback back stated and won a game was Michael Vick back in week 6 of the 2015 season! As I wrote last year, the lefthanded quarterback has been slowly phased out of the game; the graph below shows the percentage of passing yards in each season since 1932 that were thrown by southpaws: [continue reading…]

This is the third piece in my series The Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in history. Part three covers players 964-940. We’re still in Hall of Pretty Good territory, and it won’t be until we’re in the 500s or so that every player we discuss will have a legitimate argument for Canton. ^[1]And we won’t see surefire GridFe HOFers till we reach the 200s. Today’s section includes some overlooked stars of yesterday, some active veterans, and a young guy who will likely finish his career in the top 200 if he stays healthy. As always, send complaints to DeleteSansReading@gmail.com.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.
The Grand List, part 2: Includes players 989-965.

Now, on to the list.

The List, Continued

964. Wesley Walker (1977-1989)
Wide Receiver
New York Jets

Walker was a big play threat on some pretty offensive offenses. He averaged over 20 yards per catch in seven different seasons, but his best outing may have come in a year he didn’t. In 1982, he had a very good regular season and followed it with an excellent postseason, in which he picked up 104 yards per game and 19.6 yards per reception. Unfortunately, his best season came in a strike-year, and it rarely gets brought up. Walker did lead regular season receivers in yards (1169) and yards per catch (24.4) in 1978. That’s the year people mention, if they mention him at all. ^[2]Statistically, his top seasons were 1982, 1978, and 1986, when he posted TRY marks of 1649, 1482, and 1304, respectively.

963. Babe Parilli (1951-1969)
Quarterback, Punter
Boston Patriots, Green Bay Packers, New York Jets, Ottawa Rough Riders, Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns

Parilli earned three trips to the Pro Bowl and one first team all pro nod. He also nabbed a GridFe Automatic Award for most valuable player for his 1964 campaign that saw him lead the league in yards and touchdowns on his way to a 10-3 record. Parilli didn’t have that many great seasons, but even a few great years at QB is enough to make a list like this. ^[3]Among quarterbacks with at least 1500 combined regular and postseason action plays, Parilli ranks 168th in Total Adjusted Yards above Average (VAL) with -991 and 146th in TAYP+ (99).

962. Joe Ferguson (1973-1995)
Quarterback
Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, San Antonio Texans

Ferguson wasn’t a highlight reel guy, and he wasn’t a stat padder. He was an understated steady hand who was perfectly suited to the hard-nose Buffalo and Detroit fanbases for which he played. His toughness was exemplified in a playoff loss to the high-flying Chargers, when he played the entire contest on a sprained ankle. During his peak, he did more than just hand the ball to the Juice. Ferguson did post seven seasons with an ANY/A+ of 100 or higher, including four over 115. ^[4]Of course, 100 is the average performance of qualifying quarterbacks. I use 115 as another benchmark, as it denotes a full standard deviation above average. Among qualifying quarterbacks, Ferguson … Continue reading

961. Brandon Williams (2013-Present)
Defensive Interior
Baltimore Ravens

At 6’1″ 335ish, Williams is a stout presence in the middle of the Baltimore defensive line. He isn’t a pass rusher; his career 101 pressures and 6.5 sacks come to just over one pressure per game and less than one sack per season. However, he is a particularly excellent run defender who can shed blocks to make run stops regularly. Williams also possesses the coveted nose tackle ability to absorb blocks and free up edge rushers and blitzers to make the plays that get all the attention.

960. Jeremy Shockey (2002-2011)
Tight End
New York Giants, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers

Shockey makes the list primarily for his six years in New York, where he averaged 72 catches for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns per 16 games. While there, he also made four Pro Bowls and earned an all pro selection. A bloody terror after the catch, Shockey seemed to relish contact with defenders. His violent trucking of Mike Peterson on a tight end screen his rookie year was a thing of beauty. An added bonus to a fine playing career: he was on teams that defeated two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time in the Super Bowl.

959. Linval Joseph (2010-Present)
Defensive Interior
Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants

Joseph entered the league with all the physical tools you could want from an interior defenders, but he was raw from a technique standpoint. He put in the work to develop his craft and become an elite run stopper and efficient pass rusher. A move to Minnesota saw him switch to his more natural position as a nose tackle. The role played to his strength (strength) and downplayed his weakness (lateral mobility) and allowed him to thrive. Sometimes it really is just about finding a square hole for the square peg.

958. Isaac Curtis (1973-1984)
Wide Receiver
Cincinnati Bengals

Curtis is perhaps most famous for having his name attached to a rule change to open up the passing game, but he also happened to be a fine wideout. With sprinter speed and a long stride, he was as graceful as a gazelle while burning secondaries to the tune of 19.9 yards per catch in his first four seasons (before injuries took a half step from him). His speed and success with Ken Anderson necessitated more physical coverage downfield and ultimately resulted in the eponymous regulation that helped pave the way for the shootouts we see today.

957. Ken Burrough (1970-1981)
Wide Receiver
Houston Oilers, New Orleans Saints

Like many receivers of his era, Burrough’s stats take a hit from playing in the “dead ball era” of passing offense. During his three-year prime, he averaged 1071 yards and 9 touchdowns per 16 games while playing in one of the least friendly passing eras in history (1975-77) and catching passes from Dan Pastorini and the ghost of John Hadl. He was a tremendous deep threat, posting 17 yards per catch during his career, and 19.1 during his peak.

956. Roy Green (1979-1992)
Wide Receiver
St. Louis/Phoenix Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles

Green was a versatile player who began his career splitting time at wideout and safety. He picked off four passes in his career, and he was solid on punt and kickoff returns, but it is his receiving that lands him on the list. There are only about a hundred receivers with two great receiving seasons, ^[5]Great, here, is defined as a season with at least 1400 SoftTRY. Green had seasons of 1660 and 1547. and Green easily makes that list. He was a deep threat in an era that started moving away from deep passing. In his best season, he picked up 1555 yards on just 78 catches. Since the 1978 rules changes, only Torry Holt has had a season with a higher average on as many receptions.

955. Fredd Young (1984-1990)
Linebacker
Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts

Young was a gifted athlete with incredible straight line speed and sideline-to-sideline quickness. He was on the small side for his role, but his athleticism mitigated that issue. An effective pass rusher, both on blitzes and from the edge role he played in nickel, Young put up solid sack numbers during his time in the Pacific Northwest. Speculatively, he would be exciting to see in a modern defense, with a greater emphasis on speed. In addition to his defensive prowess, he was one of the best special teams players of his generation, twice earning honors as the AFC’s top special teamer.

954. Boyd Dowler (1959-1971)
Wide Receiver
Green Bay Packers, Washington

Dowler was a big, strong target for Bart Starr and a vital part of the passing offense on five championship teams. He was a steady receiver (five seasons over 1000 TRY and another three over 900) with soft hands. Importantly for the Lombardi philosophy, he also happened to be an excellent blocker from the flanker position. Like teammates Max McGee and Ron Kramer, Dowler willingly sacrificed numbers for wins, helping build the lead with their receiving skills and eagerly blocking downfield as the Packers ran out the clock with big Jim Taylor.

953. Hugh Green (1981-1991)
Linebacker
Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overshadowed by fellow rookies Lawrence Taylor and Rickey Jackson, Green helped define the prototype for the rushbacker position. He played a lot in coverage and was better than most rushbackers in that role. ^[6]It’s fair to say he was as good as anyone outside of Von Miller in that respect. Green began his career with two all pro nods and a Pro Bowl alternate selection before injuries started effecting his play. He rarely left the field, and he often played hurt, but he remained a threat as a rusher and dissuaded passers from his coverage. His heroic efforts in 1982 earned him a DPOY pick from Dr. Z.

952. Pierce Holt (1988-1995)
Defensive Line
San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons

Holt began his career on a high note, helping the 49ers win titles in his first two seasons. He was stout versus the run, but he was also an effective pass rusher, picking up a career-high 10.5 sacks in 1989. Moving inside to play tackle on passing downs, Holt had an appetite for disruption on opposing dropbacks. Like many 3-4 ends, numbers don’t tell the whole story. He was great at freeing up guys like Charles Haley and Tim Harris to put up big sack totals and get public acclaim.

951. Brian Orakpo (2009-2018)
Rushbacker
Washington, Tennessee Titans

Orakpo was a top flight pass rusher in Washington and Tennessee. He wasn’t great against the run, but that’s not really what teams paid him for. Because he was a 3-4 outside linebacker rather than an end, he had to drop back about 8-10 times per game. At first, he was pretty bad at it, but he put in the work necessary to improve his game. Orakpo finished his career with 66 sacks, 77 tackles for loss, and four Pro Bowl picks.

950. LaMarr Woodley (2007-2015)
Rushbacker
Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals, Oakland Raiders

Like Orakpo, Woodley was a great pass rusher who was merely decent against the run. He had more help in Pittsburgh’s scheme, with the accompanying talent, but he also played well on his own merit. Woodley ranks ahead of Orakpo for his stellar postseason play, especially his six-sack trio of games en route to a Steelers Super Bowl win in 2008. He began his postseason career with two sacks in each of his first four games, and he followed that with one sack in the next three games. Injuries derailed a promising future.

949. Archie Manning (1971-1984)
Quarterback
New Orleans Saints, Houston Oilers, Minnesota Vikings

Manning was a good quarterback stuck on some terrible teams. Saints fans remember him being a little better than he was, while everyone else probably underrates him a little. On tape, he was a fine quarterback who had to try too hard to make things happen with his surrounding talent. In 1978, for instance, he had great numbers with speedy tight end Henry Childs serving as his primary target. From a stylistic and talent standpoint, I often refer to him as Diet Staubach because he reminds me of Roger Staubach if the Dallas legend was about 15% worse at everything. He did sire some very talented children though. ^[7]Among qualifying quarterbacks, Manning ranks 194th in VAL (-1941) and 160th in TAYP+ (98).

948. Jim Zorn (1976-1987)
Quarterback
Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Zorn had the unfortunate role of field general for an expansion team, and his career surely would have looked different in a better situation. Counterfactuals aside, Zorn was an excellent scrambler, which came in handy behind his middling offensive line. For the first seven years of his career, he was usually good for about 200 rushing yards per season (242 per 16 games). His passing stats don’t look impressive at first glance, but he didn’t have much to work with outside of Steve Largent. Zorn had the respect of Dr. Z, who named him the NFL’s top quarterback in 1978. ^[8]Among qualifying quarterbacks, Zorn ranks 104th in VAL (546) and 97th in TAYP+ (102).

947. E.J. Holub (1961-1970)
Linebacker, Center
Dallas Texans/Kansas City Chiefs

Holub was a gritty player who earned six all pro nods at linebacker before moving to the other side of the ball and starting at center in the winter of his career (where he earned another one). ^[9]As well as the more prestigious Dr. Z All-AFL team in 1969. He was excellent on defense and very good on offense, like 85% of Concrete Charlie. Holub managed to do this in an era fairly far removed from the one platoon system of years past.

946. George Kittle (2017-Present)
Tight End
San Francisco 49ers

The fact that Kittle ranks this highly after just three seasons as a pro speaks to how spectacular his play has been. He is one of the better run blockers among great receiving TEs, and he’s not bad in pass pro either. As a receiver, he is on Olympus. In his second season as a pro, he set the yardage record at the position and led the league in yards after the catch. The following year, he led all tight ends in YAC despite missing two games. ^[10]He ranked behind only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler among all players. Kittle is good at getting open, and he is a nightmare after the catch. As a student of history, I don’t take grand claims lightly: Kittle has Rushmore potential.

945. Cecil Isbell (1938-1942)
Quarterback
Green Bay Packers

Isbell was a good quarterback with a beautiful deep ball, but he tends to be overrated by box score scouts. He played in an innovative offense with the most explosive offensive threat of his era (Don Hutson) and had his greatest success in a league weakened by the Second World War. And you can count the number of black defensive backs he faced on zero hands. Nonetheless, he was an exceptional passer, if only briefly. His numbers were incredible, and his tape generally impressed. Additionally, he was a great runner, averaging 450 yards and three touchdowns per 16 games. Want some sprinkles on that cupcake? He had nine interceptions as a defender, including six in 1942.

944. Frank Ryan (1958-1970)
Quarterback
Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Washington

Many seem to take a little credit away from Ryan because he played with Jim Brown. While Brown did help improve the team’s winning percentage (thus making the QB’s record look better), playing alongside a star running back who refused to block and didn’t take dumpoff passes any better than his backup wasn’t exactly boosting his numbers. In fact, Ryan set career marks for passing yards and touchdowns the year after Brown retired. That year, 1966, he ranked third among NFL quarterbacks in total adjusted yards above average and earned a GridFe Automatic Award. ^[11]Ryan had a TAY/P of 6.13 (TAYP+ of 115) and an era-adjusted VAL of 1040. Bart Starr was the most efficient quarterback: 7.34, 124, 1121. Don Meredith also had great numbers: 6.27, 116, 1047. Len … Continue reading He also led the league in touchdown passes (117) during his five-year prime from 1963-67 (that’s two years without Brown). ^[12]Among qualifying quarterbacks, Ryan ranks 65th in VAL (1792) and 63rd in TAYP+ (105).

943. Dana Stubblefield (1993-2003)
Defensive Interior
San Francisco 49ers, Washington, Oakland Raiders

Stubblefield is an interesting case because, throughout most of his career, he was an effective interior presence against the run. However, he didn’t really receive his due recognition until he put up gaudy numbers as a pass rusher. In 1997, he had 15 sacks from the defensive tackle spot, earning defensive player of the year honors in the process. Playing alongside Bryant Young, he was able to avoid a ton of double teams and focus on beating his man one on one. Stubblefield won most of those matchups in San Francisco before doing what big name free agents do when they move to the nation’s capital.

942. Jimmie Giles (1977-1989)
Tight End
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Houston Oilers

Giles did everything you could ask from the tight end position. He put up pretty good numbers, including 620 yards and 5 touchdowns per 16 games at his seven-year peak. That’s 732 TRY per year, which is great for a tight end who rarely played in a friendly scheme or with passers who had the full faith of their coaching staff. He was fast and great at breaking away from defenders once he caught the ball. Giles was also a solid blocker, though no one would confuse him for Hoby Brenner.

941. Jim Mutscheller (1954-1961)
Tight End
Baltimore Colts

It may be a technical misnomer to call Mutscheller a tight end, but that’s effectively the position he played. Despite sharing targets with two inner circle Hall of Famers, he managed to average 800 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games during his prime. Adjusting for era and passing environment, that’s 1076 TRY per year with four seasons over 1000 – excellent marks for a tight end (or proto-tight end). ^[13]For comparison, here are the best-five-year averages for some other notable tight ends: Rob Gronkowski – 1398 Antonio Gates – 1281 Todd Christensen – 1270 Pete Retzlaff – … Continue reading A scoring machine, Mutscheller hauled in a touchdown in nearly one out of every five catches.

940. Roy Jefferson (1965-1976)
Wide Receiver
Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore

Jefferson was the most talented offensive player on a bad Steelers team. His role as a player representative saw him clash with new head coach Chuck Noll, and Noll sent the stud receiver packing. This meant Jefferson missed out on the rebuild and a role on the Steel Curtain Dynasty, but he did see championship gold before Pittsburgh did. In his lone season in Baltimore, Jefferson put up great numbers (1192 TRY), including a score in a Divisional Round victory over the Bengals and two key first downs in the first post-merger Super Bowl. He moved on the Washington and helped them reach the Super Bowl, where he was probably the team’s best offensive performer against the juggernaut Dolphins. ^[14]He had 5 catches for 50 yards. All of them came on first and ten. Two of his catches moved the sticks. Two more gained seven yards, while another gained eight. That’s five successful plays from … Continue reading He finished his career having posted six seasons over 1000 TRY, including two over 1400.

 

I was reading an old Brad Oremland article and this line about Andre Reed’s career stood out to me:

Even his seven Pro Bowls are as much a reflection of the AFC’s weakness as anything. Who was he beating out? Haywood Jeffires, Anthony Miller, and Al Toon? The competition (Clark, Ellard, Irvin, Rice, Rison, Sharpe) was all in the NFC.

Reed made seven Pro Bowls in his career, and he did that consecutively from 1988 to 1994. But it’s true that those years were some of the weakest years the AFC receivers had relative to their NFC counterparts (the weakest would come the year after, in 1995). Here are Reed’s ranks in receiving yards in the AFC from 1988 to 1994: 7th, 1st, 6th, 2nd, 12th, 4th, and 2nd. That’s pretty good and while there are a few less than stellar years in there, in almost all of those you can see why he’d be a Pro Bowl receiver. But here are Reed’s ranks in receiving yards in the NFL during those seasons: 17th, 5th, 13th, 6th, 11th, 23rd, 5th. Without fail, his ranking in the combined AFC/NFC league looks worse than his ranking in the AFC each year.

For nearly Reed’s entire career, the receivers in the NFC were superior to those in the AFC. For each year since 1970, I looked at the top five leaders in receiving yards in both conferences, and recorded how many receiving yards was gained by the average player in each group. In 1992, for example, the top five leaders in receiving yards in the AFC gained 950.8 yards, while the top five leaders in the NFC picked up 1,252 yards. The NFC boasted the top five leaders in receiving yards that season, which is how Reed — who ranked 11th in yards that season — ranked 4th in the conference in receiving yards.

The graph below shows the average for each season from 1970 to 2019. [continue reading…]

This is the second installment of my Grand List, or: the top 1,000 pro football players in history. ^[1]Get it? Grand, like a thousand? Please validate me. The section will cover players 989-965. I’m not particularly interested in writing a treatise on each player. If you are interested in that sort of thing, I highly recommend Brad Oremland‘s series on the 125 best players ever. I’m quarantined and starting to lose my mind, so you’ll be lucky to get a full paragraph for anyone. Send complaints to DeleteSansReading@gmail.com.

Previous articles in the series

The Grand List, part 1: Includes honorable/special mentions and players 1000-990.

Without further clamor…

The List, Continued

989. Hunk Anderson (1922-1925)
Offensive Guard, Defensive Line
Chicago Bears, Cleveland Indians

The brevity of his career keeps him from ranking higher on this list. Anderson played just four years, but his blocking was so dominant that he was still chosen for the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s all decade team. Hunk wasn’t that big, but he was strong and played with a level of aggression few could match. His most important trait was probably his mind. He had a deep repertoire of blocking techniques that served him well on the field and in his subsequent role as a celebrated assistant coach and champion head coach.

988. Bill Walsh (1949-1954)
Center
Pittsburgh Steelers

No, not that Bill Walsh. This is the standout Steel City center. His career was brief, but his play was consistently good and effective. Walsh was the pivot man in a single wing offense, meaning his role required complex blocking responsibilities and often physically demanding assignments. He handled them with aplomb and even filled in on defense when called upon.

987. Jack Manders (1933-1940)
Kicker, Running Back (pre-modern)
Chicago Bears

Automatic Jack was one of the premier kickers of his generation and was a solid halfback. He was an excellent big game player, scoring 11 of Chicago’s 23 points in a 1933 title win over the Giants, as well as two touchdowns in the team’s 1937 loss to Washington. Manders was a two time champion who led the league in scoring twice and ranked in the top 5 five times.

986. Sam Koch (2006-Present)
Punter
Baltimore Ravens

Whether bailing out a lackluster offense or gaining a little more field for a great offense, Koch has been stellar at his job. The 2014 season was probably his best, when he boasted a 43.3 net and a +22 inside 20-touchback differential, but he has had several great years. For his career, he has five times as many punts inside the 20 than he has touchbacks, giving him one of the top ratios ever. He also has maintained consistently high gross and net punting averages despite playing outdoors in a cold weather city. If you want a cherry on top of that sundae, Koch is also one of the better placekick holders the game has seen.

985. William Henderson (1995-2006)
Fullback
Green Bay Packers

A career Packer, Henderson embodied the Midwest understated,. hardworking mentality. He earned Pro Bowl/all pro honors just once, but he was just as good in less celebrated seasons. An excellent lead blocker, he led the way for Dorsey Levens and Ahman Green to post incredible rushing seasons. He also excelled in pass pro while blocking for the notoriously unpredictable Brett Favre. What sets him apart from other great blocking fullbacks is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

984. Joe Guyon (1919-1927)
Running Back (pre-modern)
Canton Bulldogs, Oorang Indians, Cleveland Indians, New York Giants, Rock Island Independents, Kansas City Cowboys, Union Quakers of Philadelphia

A member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, one of Guyon’s main claims to fame is that defenders who had to tackle both him and a past-his-prime Jim Thorpe credited the former with being harder to handle. Some said Thorpe brought the fans to the gates while Guyon made the plays. Usually lined up as a wingback, he was a tough as nails runner who was even better at delivering crushing blocks. He was also an excellent defender who was  hard hitter and a playmaker, like an antediluvian Kenny Easley. Guyon started and ended on a high note, winning championships in his first and last years as a pro.

983. Al Mahrt (1913-1922)
Quarterback (pre-modern)
St. Mary’s Cadets/Dayton Gym-Cadets/Dayton Triangles

Mahrt was known by contemporaries as a gifted and natural tackler, capable of reeling in shifty runners in the open field or bringing down power backs head on. His hit on Joe Guyon in a 20-20 tie against Canton was the Bednarik-Gifford shot of its era. However, Mahrt’s primary accomplishment was his mastery of the forward pass. Writers described his arm as both strongest and most accurate of his day (or as accurate as you can be throwing around the old piece of cabbage they used to use). He was a three time champion player-coach prior to the NFL’s inception, and he earned one APFA all pro nod in the twilight of his career.

982. Rob Moore (1990-1999)
Wide Receivers
Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets

Moore’s inclusion on the list may come as a surprise, given the brevity of his true peak, but you’ll find as the list progresses that the good-but-not-great group of receivers to which he belongs is a large and tightly packed one. What sets him apart from some receivers with similar career numbers is the fact that he had one monster season (1997), in which he led the league with 1584 receiving yards and earned a first team all pro nod. He finished his career ranked 19th in receiving yards, but he has since fallen to 55th in the wake of the 21st Century Passing Explosion.

981. Bill Brown (1961-1974)
Running Back
Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears

Boom Boom Brown was a big, sturdy fullback who was especially adept at short yardage rushing and catching passes out of the backfield. He was a three-time all pro and a four-time Pro Bowler in his thirteen seasons in the Great White North. At the time of his retirement, Brown ranked 12th in both rushing yards and yards from scrimmage. His best season was a marvelous 1964 offensive that saw him pick up 866 yards on the ground and another 703 through the air (at an impressive 14.6 yards per reception), with 16 of Minnesota’s 37 offensive touchdowns.

980. Paul Lowe (1960-1969)
Running Back
Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs

Lowe was the AFL’s second leading rusher, with 4995 yards, and was named to the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s All-AFL Team. He had a short and sweet career, with just five healthy seasons full of explosive, highlight reel type plays. Lowe was excellent in his first playoff game, gaining 165 yards and a touchdown on just 21 carries in a championship loss to the Oilers. He was also an exciting boom or bust passer on trick plays, completing less than half his passes but gaining 15.5 yards per attempt on 21 tries.

979. Wayne Millner (1936-1945)
End (pre-modern)
Boston/Washington

People who dive into the stats will often look at Millner’s receiving production and label him a bogus Hall of Fame selection. ^[2]I was once in this camp before doing more research. If you look at him solely as a receiver, then that makes sense (his 1937 championship performance notwithstanding). However, in an era when blocking was coveted, Millner was among the finest at the end position. He also happened to be superb defender. While not particularly large, he was strong. And fast – capable of chasing backs out wide or running down plays from behind. Two things hurt his legacy: WW2 and the Jerry Rice Problem. Millner missed three prime years in the Navy, and he missed out on postseason honors because he played the same position as a contemporary legend – Don Hutson. ^[3]Turn a few of his six All-NFL honorable mentions into first or second team nods, and his career starts looking much better.

978. Luke Johnsos (1929-1936)
End (pre-modern)
Chicago Bears

An accomplished coach after his playing career, the Professor used his natural understanding of the game to his advantage on the field. His smarts, combined with his height (6’2″ in an era that wasn’t common) and speed, made him a scary matchup for pre-modern secondaries. At one point, he was the official career leader in receptions and receiving yards. However, because his career began before the NFL kept official records, his achievements prior to 1932 are largely undocumented and unrecognized by the league he helped advance.

977. Red Badgro (1927-1936)
End (pre-modern)
New York Giants, New York Yankees, Brooklyn Dodgers

Athletically sound with a relentless motor, the New York legend was a four-time all pro and major player on squads that won one title game and lost another. In the loss, Badgro became the first player to score a touchdown in an NFL championship game, a 29 yard aerial with his fire-red mane blowing in the wild winds of Wrigley Field. His title win came when his 8-5 crew began a Giants tradition of upsetting great teams in the season’s final game – this time against the undefeated Chicago Bears. Like Millner, Badgro was an excellent blocker and a skilled defenseman.

976. Dick Bass (1960-1969)
Running Back
Los Angeles Rams

Bass wasn’t big but could block well, both as a lead and in pass pro. More importantly, he was a playmaker on both offense and special teams. While he made the first of his three Pro Bowls in 1962, his 1961 season was his most interesting. As a little-used runner, he had the longest run of the season. He also had the league’s longest punt return – an ill-advised 90 yarder that looked like a great idea in hindsight. Oh, Bass led the league in kickoff return average, too, and managed to do so without even scoring a touchdown. Along with halfback Jon Arnett, he was a small glimmer of hope in a dismal era of offense for the Rams.

975. Larry Centers (1990-2003)
Fullback
Arizona/Phoenix Cardinals, Washington, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots

Centers excelled as a traditional “lineman in the backfield” fullback and could have potentially made this list for his blocking. He didn’t have the size of a Moose Johnston or Lorenzo Neal but was a technician who used leverage and angles to stop defenders at the second level. While his blocking was great, his best trait was his top flight receiving. He was the rare fullback who was also his team’s third down back, and his ability to protect the QB or catch the ball would make him a coveted back in today’s game. Centers finished his career with 6797 receiving yards, including 634 per season from 1993-2001. ^[4]His receptions weren’t just empty checkdowns either. His 1995 outing saw him end the year with 355 DYAR, which is the sixth highest total by a running back in the Football Outsiders era … Continue reading

974. Doak Walker (1950-1955)
Running Back, Defensive Back, Kicker
Detroit Lions

After becoming a college superstar, Walker graduated to the pros and literally did it all. He starred on offense and defense, he kicked and punted, and he returned kicks and punts. ^[5]He also threw the ball, but he wasn’t particularly good at it. The golden boy played five healthy seasons and finished each of those years with a first team all pro selection. A guy who would be at home in a modern offense, Walker made the most of limited touches and put up big numbers as a receiving back. He led league in points scored in his first and last seasons.

973. Tony Richardson (1995-2010)
Fullback
Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings

Richardson was on the small side for a blocking fullback, but he attacked linebackers play after play for 242 games. He made up for his relative lack of size with superior speed and agility compared to his peers. Early in his career, he had a few solid seasons as a runner and receiver, even posting a thousand yard season. He followed that by lead blocking for Priest Holmes in one of the greatest stretches of running back play in history, blocking for a rookie Adrian Peterson, and blocking for a run-heavy attack for the Jets. ^[6]Richardson help a 31 year old Thomas Jones set a career mark in rushing yards.

972. Norb Sacksteder (1914-1925)
Running Back (pre-modern)
Dayton Triangles, Detroit Heralds, Detroit Tigers, Canton Bulldogs

A somewhat obscure name, Sacksteder was one of the first star offensive playmakers in pro football history. He was an excellent open field runner who combined top end speed with elite agility, like a precursor to Hugh McElhenny. Always a threat to score, historians estimate most of his touchdowns were longer than 50 yards. Though most of his accomplishments came before the NFL’s inaugural season, Sacksteder did play in the first-ever game between two NFL teams and was an excellent scatback for the 1922 champion Bulldogs.

971. Larry Craig (1939-1949)
Fullback (pre-modern)
Green Bay Packers

Craig was perhaps the finest blocking back of his era, clearing the way for names like Hinkle, Fritsch, and Canadeo. He only touched the ball 24 times on offense, and he actually scored more touchdowns on defense (one) than he did on offense (none). Powerfully composed, Craig did the dirty work in the Lambeau offense, swatting away hapless defenders like flies at a barbecue. His strength help make him a nightmare as a defensive end, able to put blockers on their heels seemingly at will. Craig’s play at end was a boon not just to the defensive line, but to the defense as a whole, as it meant moving Hutson to his more natural position as a defensive back.

970. Tony Canadeo (1941-1952)
Running Back (pre-modern)
Green Bay Packers

Canadeo was not much of a receiver, but he could run and pass well. He wasn’t that fast or that shifty, but he was sturdy and hard to tackle. This enabled him to excel in short yardage situations, as well as runs up the gut in general. As a passer, he had above average efficiency and was his team’s primary passer (and leading rusher) in 1943. That season, he trailed only legends Sid Luckman and Sammy Baugh in yards and touchdowns. Canadeo was also a solid defensive back who finished his career with 9 interceptions, as well as a contributor on special teams. He missed two years of his prime while serving in the Navy and the Army, which has to be taken into account when looking at his numbers and accolades.

969. Charley Trippi (1947-1955)
Running Back (pre-modern), Punter
Chicago Cardinals

Trippi was an explosive runner who put up consistently high rushing averages without breaking a ton of big plays. Instead, the three-time all pro just gained solid yardage seemingly every time he touched the football. Splitting carries in a committee backfield, he did post eye-popping totals, but he was always a headache for defenses when given the chance. He was a decent receiver early on before eschewing the role almost entirely. By his fifth season, began throwing the ball more than he caught it, though he wasn’t a very effective passer. Trippi was a decent punter and an excellent punt returner. With kickoff return duties as well, he led the league in all purpose yards in 1948 and 1949.

968. Father Lumpkin (1929-1937)
Fullback (pre-modern)
Portsmouth Spartans/Detroit Lions, Brooklyn Dodgers

Long before the pancake became part of the football vernacular, Father Lumpkin was putting grown men flat on their backs. At 6’2″ and 210 pounds, he was mighty figure in the early days of the league, barreling down on defenders with no helmet and a granite chin. As the designated lead blocker on most rushing plays, Lumpkin took his role seriously – he would bemoan any play that didn’t see him demolish multiple men at the second level. As a defensive fullback, he was an exceptional run defender who helped the Lions field one of the great defenses of any era in their first year in Detroit.

967. Whizzer White (1938-1941)
Running Back (pre-modern)
Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Pirates

White would probably be in the Hall of Fame had he decided to stick to sports. Rather than continuing as a running back, he opted to move on to a role that matters: after receiving two Bronze Stars as an intelligence officer in the Navy during WW2, he finished his law degree from Yale on his way to becoming an associate justice for the SCOTUS. As a player, White was a shifty runner who led the NFL in rushing yards twice and punt return yardage once (the lone season he returned punts). He was also a decent punter and a pretty good defensive back. ^[7]He was a terrible passer, so it’s not like the guy was perfect.

966. Ward Cuff (1937-1947)
Kicker, Running Back (pre-modern)
New York Giants, Chicago Cardinals, Green Bay Packers

Statistics from the era are archaic, but from the numbers we do have, as well as from contemporary accounts, Cuff was the best kicker of his day. He was also a very good slashing runner, usually boasting a high rushing average and leading the league twice in the metric. Cuff was equally adept as a receiver, though playing in the thirties and forties hurt his opportunities to show off his pass catching talents. He was a very good defensive back with a nose for the football. In 1938, he returned an interception 96 yards for a score, and in 1941, he returned four picks for a league high 152 yards.

965. Michael Vick (2001-2015)
Quarterback
Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers

A controversial selection, Vick was generally inaccurate as a passer, but he was capable of amazing plays with both arms and legs. Able to generate incredible torque and launch the ball with just a flick of his wrist, he could fit the ball into windows most quarterbacks wouldn’t even test. He is the fastest and most natural runner ever at the quarterback position. ^[8]Compared with someone like Robert Griffin, who had world class speed but was not a natural as a ball carrier. Vick missed two years of football because of his infamous role in a dogfighting ring, disappointing a fanbase and securing the eternal ire of many. He served his time and came back with a renewed love of the game, working under the tutelage of Andy Reid to produce his best season as a passer and earn a Bert Bell Award.

 

A year ago, I wrote about the shrinking middle class of quarterbacks from a salary cap perspective: there were 14 teams paying huge dollars to their quarterback, 11 teams with a starter on a rookie contract, and 7 teams caught in the middle. And all 7 of those teams caught in the middle will have new starting QBs in 2020: the Bucs and Titans had QBs playing out their 5th year option, the Bengals, Jaguars, and Broncos had middling veterans, and the Dolphins and Redskins quarterback situations were wide open as of last March (Washington wound up using a first round pick on a quarterback, while Miami is likely to do so this year).

In 2019, there were 32 quarterbacks who threw enough passes to qualify for the league passing title. And over half of those passers were under 27 on September 1st (this includes two quarterbacks from the 2016 Draft, Carson Wentz and Jacoby Brissett, who turned 27 in December). That is the first time since 1960 that over half of the qualifying passers were under 27 as of September 1st of that season.

There also were a lot of old quarterbacks: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady were all 34 or older at the start of the season, and that doesn’t even include opening day starters Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. That’s part of another growing trend in the modern NFL, although the presence of more old quarterbacks isn’t quite as noticeable as the increase in young ones.

Where quarterbacks are really getting squeezed is the place you might not expect: during their prime years. A quarterback should still have their physical skill-set, but be further along mentally, in their late 20s and early 30s. A quarterback who is between the ages of 27 and 33 should be, broadly speaking, in the prime of his career. And yet last season, there were just 8 starting quarterbacks in this middle class of life: Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Matthew Stafford, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, and Andy Dalton.

The graph below shows the percentage of qualifying passers in each season since 1960 that were, as of September 1st of that season: (1) under 27 years old, (2) between 27 and 33 years of age, and (3) 34 or older. [continue reading…]

You may have heard that the NFL just celebrated its centennial season. To honor that, I decided to take on a project with the scope grand enough to match the occasion. Previously, I have undertaken large projects like the GridFe Hall of Fame and the Retro Awards project, ^[1]The latter of which was based off decades of prior research and thousands of hours of direct-focused research., and I wanted to build on what I’ve learned from those endeavors to create something everyone loves and hates at once: a big, fat list. In this case, the top 1,000 players in history.

This is my list. There are many like it, but this one is mine. It’s going to be a little different from others you have seen. There will be kickers, punters, blocking fullbacks, returners, and special teamers. You’ll see players from pro football’s Paleolithic era, antedating the NFL itself. With the exception of specialists, positional value won’t play much part here. Neither will fame – if I think an unheralded guy was better than the traditional favorite, I’m going against the grain.

Before we get into the list proper, I want to name a few honorable mentions and special mentions (listed by their offensive roles, when applicable).

Honorable Mentions

Quarterback: Jim McMahon had all the physical tools you could want, and he probably would have made the list had he been able to stay healthy. The Chicago defense deservedly gets the lion’s share of the credit, but the Bears were always a better team when McMahon was at the helm of the offense. Jack Kemp wasn’t exactly efficient, but he was a winner and was one of the best natural athletes to play the position. He had a cannon arm and was one of the best scramblers ever. Jeff Garcia was a gutsy player who dominated the CFL and thrived everywhere he went in the NFL. A classic West Coast passer with wheels, he was one of the more exciting quarterbacks to watch in recent memory.

Running Back: Keith Lincoln was a stout fullback with the speed to break big plays. He could pass, kick, and return as well, and his versatility was invaluable to the champion Chargers.

Fullbacks: Sam Gash and Mack Strong didn’t scare anyone with the ball in their hands, but they were two of the finest blocking fullbacks the game has ever seen. Gash didn’t start getting Pro Bowl attention till he switched teams, and Strong didn’t get love until Shaun Alexander became a household name, but both were incredible well before the public paid notice.

Wide Receivers: Hulking Dick Plasman was a pretty good receiver for his era, but it was his work as a defensive end that gets him the honorable mention. His claim to fame is being the last player to play without a helmet, but he was known by his peers for his temper and ability to disrupt the line of scrimmage. Alyn Beals didn’t generate a ton of yardage, but he was a touchdown machine. He led the AAFC in receiving touchdowns all four years of the league’s existence and is the all-time AAFC touchdown leader. Beals retired after the 1951 season because he could make more money running a liquor store.  Haven Moses was a dangerous big play threat for both the Bills and the Broncos. Diminutive Ernest Givins operated superbly in the run and shoot system, gaining separation with seeming ease and playing well in space with the ball in his hands. Julian Edelman reminds me of watching Scooby Doo as a child. The gang of meddling kids spent 80% of the episode running in circles, only to come up big in the end, thwarting the masked investor keen on lowering the price of real estate by dressing as a werewolf. Edelman rarely played a full 16 game schedule, and he surpassed 70 yards per game once in a season he played at least 12 games. Then January comes around, and he starts making crazy people on ESPN say he belongs in Canton. Jarvis Landry is an odd pick, given his actual production. However, his ability to gain separation and earn targets at a high rate on a wide variety of different routes is among the best in recent memory. He doesn’t choose the routes he gets to run, and he doesn’t choose whether he gets the target, but he almost always makes himself the best option for his quarterback.

Tackles: Len Grant had a short career, but he was good to great in each season. He would have likely made the list had he not been struck by lightning and killed at age 32.

Guards: Buckets Goldenberg may have been a better pure blocker than his more celebrated contemporary Walt Kiesling. Short and compact, he packed a punch in his man blocks.

Centers: Vince Banonis was a solid center and an excellent defensive tackle for the Chicago Cardinals. His career was interrupted by World War II, but he returned to newfound media acclaim and championship glory. Ed Flanagan was a terrific run blocker who anchored several solid lines for the Lions. Clyde Smith was arguably better at the position than Hall of Famer Alex Wojciechowicz, but his short career hurts him here.

Safety: Sean Taylor. What could have been. Taylor was one of the most gifted athletes ever to roam the secondary. He took a few years to put it all together and master the nuances of the role, but by age 23 he already looked like the future of the position. His life was tragically cut short before he reached the heights he seemed to be destined to achieve.

Kickers: Jeff Wilkins was a great long ball kicker and one of the all-time greats at placing onside kicks. Rob Bironas had a big leg and superb accuracy. He seemed to come up big in the biggest moments.

Punters: Rich Camarillo was successful wherever he went. His ability to mitigate return efforts contributed to his consistently excellent rankings in net yards per punt. Shane Lechler is the most decorated punter ever, and his big leg came in handy on those offensively impotent Oakland squads. His inability to limit returns or keep the ball out of the end zone keeps him off the main list. Mike Scifres had some of the highest highs and lowest lows of any punter. His placement on coffin corners was pure art, but his inability to avoid blocks was often disastrous.

Returners: George McAfee was a solid threat on offense and a pretty good defensive back. He also boasts the top punt return average in history (officially, but not actually). Travis Williams was a shooting star, not just in the brevity of his career but also in the explosiveness of his game. Terry Metcalf was more of a field position guy than a scorer, and his contributions on offense earn him an honorable mention over someone like Tamarick Vanover. Terry’s son, Eric, was a stud punt returner and effective slot receiver. Dave Meggett was a shifty scatback who was a good kickoff returner and a great punt returner. Brian Mitchell led the league in all purpose yards four times and still trails only Jerry Rice in career output. Desmond Howard broke punt returns in 1996, and he was effective in other years and for other teams as well. Dante Hall earned the nickname Human Joystick with his memorable returns that featured sharp cuts, abrupt stops, and uncanny acceleration.

Special Mentions

I thought I’d be a cheeky bastard and include these players in the proper list, but I realized that would be unfair to the more recent, better players. Still, with an eye to the past, I’d feel like the project was incomplete without mentioning these fellows.

In 1892, Pudge Heffelfinger accepted $500 to play a football game for the Allegheny Athletic Association. In doing so, he became the first professional football player (that we know of).

At a reported 250 pounds, Bob Shiring was a behemoth in his era. He was a crushing blocker at the pivot position, and he all but destroyed opposing strategies when lined up on the defensive front. Contemporary accounts inform us that Shiring commonly ragdolled any poor soul tasked with lining up against him.

Charles Follis was the first black professional football player on record, signing a contract with the Shelby Blues in 1904. He is also the subject of my favorite football article I have ever written.

Follis’s one-time teammate Peggy Parratt was a coveted player because of his ability to throw the ball. In 1906, Parratt threw the first forward pass in the history of professional football, starting a trend of pearl clutching and traditionalist hand-waving that continues over a century later.

While Parratt threw the first recorded professional pass, Knute Rockne and Massillon teammate Gus Dorais paved the way for using the pass as an integral part of an offensive game plan. The Dorais to Rockne connection was vital to the success of the Tigers.

The List Proper

Having given respects to the men who helped build the game, as well as those who narrowly missed the list, it is now time to get to the top thousand. I’ll cover the first eleven, a portion of the list populated entirely by specialists. This was the part of the list where I said “it’s my list, and I’ll cop out if I want to.” I wanted to recognize great special teams guys and return men, but I also didn’t feel like trying to do the mental gymnastics of explaining a guy who can barely earn playing time on offense or defense somehow outranks a regular starter who also contributed on special teams. Thus, the first eleven includes five special teamers and six returners. I can deal with it if you can.

1000. Bill Bates (1983-1997)
Dallas Cowboys

The beloved Cowboy was a decent safety and a good nickel linebacker early in his career, notching 12 interceptions and 16 sacks before turning 30. However, special teams is where he cemented his legend. Long after he ceded his starting role on defense, Bates continued to bring leadership by example, impressing coaches and teammates alike with his effort on the field and commitment in the film room. As a coverage guru, he was a consistent tackler, averaging almost a tackle per game over his 217 games. While he didn’t make many box score stuffing plays (1 forced fumble and 3 recoveries), Bates was instrumental in giving opponents worse field position.

999. Hank Bauer (1977-1982)
San Diego Chargers

Bauer’s career lasted just six seasons, but he managed to cram a ton of frenzied play into his brief time on the field. As a tough short yardage specialist on offense, he had years where he averaged 3.6 and 1.3 yards per carry while scoring 9 and 8 touchdowns. Nothing special. But on special teams, he was on another level. He wasn’t a playmaker, but he was a great blocker on return teams and an otherworldly tackler on coverage units. He finished his career with 147 special teams tackles, including an NFL record 51 in 1981. In his last season, Bauer averaged two coverage tackles per game, despite playing the last six games of the season with the broken neck that ultimately ended his career.

998. Ivory Sully (1979-1987)
Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions

Sully saw a lot of action as a member of the Rams’ deep squad of great defensive backs, often replacing a linebacker in Ray Malavasi’s innovative dollar defense. But he really made his mark as a special teamer. He didn’t have the consistently high tackle numbers of a guy like Bauer, but he arguably made big plays at a higher rate than any other specialist in history. Sully forced six fumbles, recovered four fumbles, blocked four punts, and blocked three kicks.

997. Michael Bates (1993-2003)
Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns, Washington, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets

Bates was a world-class athlete, earning a bronze medal in the 200 at the 1992 Olympics. He used his blazing speed to make an impact as both a returner and a special teams ace. Bates led the league in kickoff return average twice and finished his career with 9348 yards, good for 7th all time. His five scoring returns put him 9th on the kickoff touchdown list. However, he was even better as a specialist. Despite bouncing around from team to team, he was a productive tackler wherever he went, and he was a top notch playmaker as well. Prior to injury, he posted 9 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and 4 blocked kicks in 136 games.

996. Steve Tasker (1985-1997)
Buffalo Bills, Houston Oilers

Tasker is the consensus pick for the greatest core special teams player of all time. His legend is such that he was even a Hall of Fame semifinalist purely for special teams play. While I wouldn’t go as far as to induct a player with 909 career yards from scrimmage and a forced/recovered fumble tally that matched Jared Allen‘s 2006 season, I do think it’s fair to recognize him as the best at his role. Early in his career, he was a playmaking machine. He posted 74 of his 111 career tackles, forced all five of his fumbles and notched all six of his kick blocks before turning 30. Until last year, his seven Pro Bowl selections were the most ever for a special teamer. ^[2]And by ever, I mean since it became an option in 1984. Last year, Patriots standout Matthew Slater earned his eighth Pro Bowl nod. Slater is in the Bill Bates mold, holding his own as a coverage … Continue reading

995. Billy Johnson (1974-1988)
Houston Oilers, Atlanta Falcons, Montreal Alouettes, Washington

The next two players were tough to separate, and I switched them back and forth a few times. White Shoes was a top notch punt returner and a pretty good kickoff returner. He led the league in punt return average twice and finished his career with a solid 11.8 yard average and 6 touchdowns. With slow and steady offensive production and a solid kick returning role early in his career, Johnson amassed 10785 all purpose yards. But it was his big play threat on punts that landed him on the NFL’s All-Century Team.

994. Rick Upchurch (1975-1983)
Denver Broncos

White Shoes got the honor of making the official centennial team, but Upchurch bests him on this list. As direct contemporaries, the Broncos standout boasted the superior punt return and kickoff return average, in addition to two more punt return touchdowns on fewer tries. Relative to the rest of the league, Upchurch created more value at his peak while posting just one below average season in his career. I’m not giving much consideration to offensive and defensive production in this installment, but it is worth mentioning that Upchurch also contributed more consistently on offense.

993. Josh Cribbs (2005-2014)
Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts

An effective gadget player on offense, as well as a solid gunner on coverage teams, Cribbs really made his name as a return man. He was good – sometimes very good – fielding punts, but he is one of the very best of all time at returning kickoffs. His 2007 campaign may be the greatest the game has ever seen, and he surrounded that consistently excellent seasons. In terms of return efficiency, he was well above average over the third most kickoff returns of any player in history. Cribbs also boasts the record for career kickoff return scores, with eight.

992. Cordarrelle Patterson (2013-present)
Minnesota Vikings, Oakland Raiders, New England Patriots, Chicago Bears

With league efforts to legislate kickoff returns out of existence, Patterson has managed to fly under the radar as one of the all time great kickoff returners. Were he to play in an era that featured more returns, he would probably get the credit he has earned. He has played seven seasons, and his kickoff average ranks have been: 1, 6, 1, 1, DNQ, 3, and 2. The year he didn’t qualify, he missed the league minimum by one return and was nearly a full yard higher than the official leader. His 29.9 yard average ranks second in history in career average, just above Lynn Chandnois (29.6) and below Gale Sayers (30.6). The former returned 92 kicks, while the latter returned 91. Patterson has returned 204 and counting. He didn’t do much to pad his résumé on offense, but he has bolstered his value as a standout special teamer.

991. Mel Gray (1984-1997)
Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, Houston Oilers, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Express

In 2014, Chase published articles on the best kickoff returners and best punt returners in history. Gray came out as the top kickoff returner and the fifteenth ranked punt returner. ^[3]I disagree with using a 15 yard touchdown bonus for kickoff returns. If we use the 20 yard bonus from ANY/A as the standard, then we should probably make a kickoff return touchdown worth about 45 … Continue reading He wasn’t the terrifying big play threat that some others were, though he did score six touchdowns on kickoffs and another three on punts. What made Gray great was his ability to generate positive field position for his teams, year after year, without ever having a down year. Despite playing during a low point for league-wide kick return success, Gray’s raw numbers are among the best ever. Once you account for era, he’s clearly at the top of the pack.

990. Devin Hester (2006-2016)
Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens

There have been many good – even great – return men throughout history. Few have ever managed to strike fear in opposing squads to such an extent that they actually gameplanned around a returner. ^[4]Jack Christiansen on punts and Gale Sayers on kickoffs come to mind, but it’s not a long list. Hester didn’t just score return touchdowns at an unprecedented rate, he actually scared punters and kickoff specialists into kicking away from him and often making unforced errors. Like Gray, he was one of the few who excelled at both kickoffs and punts. Hester made an immediate impact, helping his inept offense with five return scores as a rookie and another six in his second season. He finished his career as the punt return touchdown king, and he threw in a ninth place rank in kickoff scores for good measure. Gale Sayers and Deion Sanders agree: Hester is the greatest, most explosive returner ever to play.

 

For the 10-year period from 2006 to 2015, only two quarterbacks with strong Hall of Fame prospects entered the league: Matt Ryan in 2008 and Russell Wilson in 2012.

And there aren’t that many franchise quarterbacks that entered during this time, either: Matthew Stafford in 2009, Cam Newton in 2011, and Andrew Luck in 2012 are the only that probably qualify. (And pickin’ nits s as to whether Ryan should be with this group, or Newton should be with the other group, is not relevant to this post.)

Heck, there weren’t even that many good starters that entered the league during this time 10-year period: the ones that qualify are Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, and Derek Carr.

How about solid starters? Jameis Winston and Ryan Tannehill, maybe? The book has yet to be written on Jimmy Garoppolo or Teddy Bridgewater and Marcus Mariota, so perhaps they jump into this or one of the higher tiers over the next few years.

After that, you are looking at guys like Jason Campbell, Sam Bradford, Nick Foles, Colin Kaepernick, and Case Keenum as the other top guys. But in general, this was an ugly decade. [continue reading…]

On Monday, November 2nd, 1964, the country was talking about Lyndon Baines Johnson and Barry Goldwater, as the upcoming presidential election was just one day away. The NFL world was talking about Jim Brown, who a day earlier had become the first player to rush for 10,000 yards, and the Baltimore Colts, who had just won their 7th straight game. Fans of the AFL were talking about the Buffalo Bills, who had won yet again to bring their 1964 record to a perfect 8-0.

But if you look closely, there was some attention being paid to old George Blanda, the Houston Oilers quarterback who set a new pro football record by throwing 68 passes in a losing effort against those Bills. You might be wondering how did a 37-year-old quarterback in 1964 get away with throwing 68 passes? At the time, the single-game record by pass attempts by a team or player was 60, set by Davey O’Brien with the Philadelphia Eagles back in 1940. In the ensuing 23-and-a-half seasons, no team had hit 60 pass attempts again, and then Blanda and the Oilers threw 68 times on November 1st, 1964. In the next 24 seasons, no quarterback threw more than 62 passes in a game.

So, what happened on November 1st 1964 in western New York?

Let’s begin with the opponent. Blanda had a lot of success against the Bills in 1963: in two wins, he completed 30 of 56 passes for 475 yards with 6 TDs and 1 interception, back when those numbers were truly outstanding. [continue reading…]

In the early days of the NFL, a player needed to be at least five yards behind the line of scrimmage in order to be eligible to pass.  Beginning in 1933, that rule was eliminated, making a pass legal at any point behind the line of scrimmage.  The next year, a slimmer and more aerodynamic football was introduced to make life easier for passers.

In the 1937 NFL championship game, trailing for much of the game, the Redskins and Sammy Baugh set a single-game record with 40 pass attempts against the great Chicago Bears.  Baugh led the team on a great comeback and secured the title for Washington in a 28-21 victory.

But playoff games have a tendency to make teams move outside of their comfort zone; in the regular season no team even hit the 35-pass attempt mark until 1939.  On October 15th of that season, the Chicago Cardinals were obliterated by the Chicago Bears, 44-7. Playing with a terrible game script, the Cardinals finished 10 of 37 for 162 yards with no touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Hardly a blueprint for future offenses,  it was a record-setting game nonetheless.  The next season, the Detroit Lions also threw 37 times in a loss to the Bears in mid-November. The following week, the Philadelphia Eagles, led by Davey O’Brien, faced that same dominant Bears team and threw a (regular season) record 38 times in a losing effort.  In case you haven’t picked up on it, the Bears were very good in the late ’30s.

By 1940, the passing game began to take off, at least compared to the ground-and-pound days of the 1930s.  In the Eagles opener, the team threw 40 times in a loss to the Packers, setting a new record in the regular season. A month later, as the Rams trailed the Packers, the team threw a record 42 times!  This was a real shootout: Green Bay won by throwing 37 passes of their own, with remarkable success.

Two weeks later, O’Brien’s Eagles matched that number in a loss to Brooklyn.  Another two weeks later, Brooklyn faced Baugh’s Redskins and jumped out to an early lead.  Washington responded with — are you sitting down? — 47 passes in a comeback that fell just short.  It was a historic performance: Baugh set a new record with 23 completions on 44 attempts.

As the 1940 season concluded, the Redskins looked like the best team in the NFL.  They were 9-2 entering the final game of the season, and had just defeated the second-best team (the Bears) two weeks earlier.  The worst team in the NFL?  That would be Davey O’Brien’s Philadelphia Eagles, who began the season 0-9, and then eeked by with a 7-3 victory against the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers. [continue reading…]

Scoring soared in the aftermath of World War II, but quickly dropped off in the middle of the 1950s. Scoring fell to its nadir in 1977, prompting the 1978 rules changes regarding pass blocking and pass coverage. After another lull in the early nineties, scoring has steadily increased over the last twenty years. It reached a peak in 2013 and nearly matched that again in 2018, before a a slight dip in 2019. Take a look at the average points per game for all NFL teams (i.e., excluding the AFL) since 1950:

You might think that the increase in scoring is due to the passing game becoming more dominant in modern times, but that’s hardly the full story. There are more passing touchdowns now, but they have also to some extent just taken touchdowns that would have otherwise been rushing touchdowns. Over the last 5 years, teams have scored about 16.6 points per game on passing plus rushing touchdowns, if we assign 7 points to each touchdown. That’s noticeably higher than how things were in the ’90s and ’00s, and much higher than the ’70s, but it’s lower than NFL life was in the ’50s and much of the ’60s.

One undeniable fact of life is that field goals have become a much bigger part of the game. The graph below assigns 7 points to all passing, rushing, and other touchdowns, and 3 points to all field goals. It then shows how many points per team game have come from each of those four categories. [continue reading…]

Every season, I like to look at each team’s fumble recovery data. The evidence suggests that when the ball is on the ground, teams aren’t better or worse at recovering those fumbles; in other words, the recovery is driven more by randomness than skill.

Let’s begin with looking at fumbles from the perspective of the offensive team. The New Orleans Saints had the fewest fumbles in the league last season, at just 9. Even more impressive, the Saints lost just two fumbles all year! Of course, that luck didn’t hold up in the postseason: New Orleans lost a critical fumble in the team’s opening playoff game, contributing to the surprise loss to the Vikings.

On average, the fumbling team recovered (or the ball went out of bounds, so the fumbling team retained possession) 53.5% of all fumbles in 2019. No team was “luckier” at recovering their own fumbles than the Saints, but the Broncos actually gained the biggest advantage due to having fumbled much more often. Denver fumbled 21 times last season; that means we would “expect” the Broncos to lose 9.75 of those fumbles. In reality, the team lost just 6 fumbles, meaning Denver recovered 3.75 more fumbles than we would have been expected. Non-QBs for the Broncos fumbled 10 times, but they lost just 2 of those fumbles.

The least fortunate team was the Colts. In 2019, Indianapolis fumbled 18 times, and lost 11 of them! Jacoby Brissett himself lost 5 of 7 fumbles. The table below shows the full fumble data for each offense in 2019: [continue reading…]

In March of 2011, the NFL voted to move kickoffs up from the 30 to the 35-yard line. That impact has been significant, and the league responded by placing a greater emphasis on kickers who can boom kickoffs into the opposing end zone.

In 2016, the NFL moved up where offenses would start following a touchback from the 20 to the 25-yard line, which made returners more likely to just take a touchback. That impact has been marginal.

The graph below shows the percentage of kickoffs that resulted in a touchback in each of the last 25 seasons. [continue reading…]

On average, the 2019 Lions were underdogs each week by 4 to 4.5 points. Detroit was only favored to win three games, and was an underdog of more than a touchdown in five games. The team was not very good in the first half of the season (3-4-1), but things went particularly south once Matthew Stafford went down due to injury. The Lions went 0-8 in the second half of the season, with Jeff Driskel (0-3) and David Blough (0-5) splitting those starts.

But there’s something pretty unusual in those splits. In 8 home games, the Lions were underdogs by an average of 4.6 points. In 8 road games, the Lions were underdogs by an average of 3.9 points. Given that home field advantage is usually worth 3 points, you’d expect a team to be favored by about 6 more points — on average — in home games than in road games. But the 2019 Lions were actually favored to do better on the road than at home! That is exceedingly rare: it has only happened a handful of times in the last 40 years.

So, what happened? You might think this has something to do with Stafford, but that’s not really the case: he was healthy for 4 home and 4 road games. Here are the full season results: [continue reading…]

In general, more passing yards should be better than fewer passing yards. But we know that due to Game Script, teams that are trailing late in games throw much more frequently — and can rack up the passing yards — than teams with a lead.

So, if you know nothing else other than that a team threw for more passing yards than its opponent, would you guess that team won or lost?

And how would you guess that answer would change over time?

For the first question, let’s look at 2019. Last season, the team that threw for more gross passing yards went 136-119-1, so that’s a small but clear edge for the team that threw for more passing yards.  In the graph below, I’ve shown the number of passing yards by each winning team (in blue) and its opponent (in orange) in each game.  The X-Axis shows the difference between the passing yards for the winning team and the passing yards for the losing team. There are a few more dots to the right side of the graph than the left, which is because the winning team more often than not threw for more yards.  This is a fun graph, because it also lets you see how many games are in each category based on the size of the difference.

[continue reading…]

If you know nothing else about a game other than the quarterback threw for over 300 yards, would you bet that the team won the game?

On one hand, passing yards is correlated with production: all else being equal, more yards are better than fewer yards. On the other hand, we know that Game Scripts call for teams with a lead to throw less frequently than teams that trail; for the same reason that “teams that run 30+ times usually win”, you might be suspect about the fortunes of a team that threw for 300 yards.

And what about historically? Has the league-wide winning percentage changed over time for when a quarterback throws for 300 yards? Great questions! Let’s get some answers. [continue reading…]

Saints WR Michael Thomas had another dominant season in 2019.  He easily led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,725, and he also was responsible for 38.9% of all Saints receiving yards.  That was the largest percentage of a team’s receiving pie for any one player in 2019, followed by Bronco Courtland Sutton in a distant second place (32.7%), and Bears WR Allen Robinson (32.1%); only three other players (Buffalo’s John Brown, Cleveland’s Jarvis Landry, and Minnesota’s Stefon Diggs) topped 30%.

Regular readers know that I like to calculate something called the Concentration Index for passing offenses: it’s relatively simple to calculate, and it measures how concentrated a team’s passing offense is among a small or large number of players.  To calculate, you simple take each player’s receiving yards, divide that by his team’s total receiving yards, square that result, and then add that number for each player on the offense.  For the Saints, Thomas is at 38.9%; the square of that is 15.2%, so that’s the number we use.  Jared Cook was second on the team with 705 yards, or 15.9% of the team’s receiving yards; the square of that number is 2.5%.  Do this for every player, and the Saints have a total Concentration Index of 21.1%… which is highly concentrated. [continue reading…]

In a recent post, I revisited True Receiving Yards. That articles covers the nuts and bolts of the metric, so I’m not going to discuss that again today. Instead, I’m taking my favorite version of the metric, TRYSoft, and adding postseason performance for single seasons. You will recall that TRY includes adjustments for both a team’s pass frequency relative to its peers and a year’s pass frequency relative to other years. For the playoffs, I dropped the team adjustment but kept the yearly adjustment. I can see arguments for using both (or neither), but this is what I landed on, so strap in.

The table below contains receiving seasons with a combined regular and postseason TRY greater than 750. Read in thus: In 1945, Jim Benton caught 45 passes for 1067 yards and 8 touchdowns in the regular season. That’s good for 1227 adjusted catch yards and a TRYSoft of 2384. ^[1]Yea, that’s a pretty huge adjustment. In the postseason, he caught an additional 9 passes for 125 yards and a score, giving him a postseason ACY of 145, adjusted up to 171 after the year modifier. His combined production, which I have simply dubbed X, comes to 2555.

I don’t feel like getting into a ton of observations today. Besides, the remarks from the regular FP readers tend to be more interesting anyway. I’ll just say this: Jerry Rice was good at football.

The NFL is looking at adding a 7th team to the playoff field in each conference, which would represent a significant change in the current structure. Moving forward, only the #1 seed would have a bye. How would this chance things?

Wild Card Round

There would now be three games played here in each conference: as before, the 6 seed would travel to face the 3 seed, and the 5 seed would go on the road against the 4 seed. And the 1 seed would have a bye. But the 2 seed and 7 seed would now play each other, as opposed to both teams being off that week (with the 7 seed missing the playoffs).

My assumptions throughout this post are (1) home field advantage matters, and (2) the stronger seed is the better team, with the exception of 4 vs. 5. With 4-team divisions, the best team to not win its division — that is, often, the 2nd best team in the division with a very good division winner — is more often than not a better team than the worst division winner.

Let’s assume the 2 seed has a 65% chance of beating the 7 seed, the 3 seed has a 60% chance of winning, and the 4 seed has a 55% chance of winning.  In the Division Round, the 1 seed will face the weakest remaining seed, while  the strongest-seeded winner that won on Wild Card weekend would be home against the other remaining winner from Wild Card weekend.  I simulated 32,000 playoff seasons to see which matchups are most likely in the Division Round.

As it turns out, the 1 seed has at least a 15% chance of facing any of the 4-7 seeds, with the 7 seed being its most likely opponent (because the 7 seed always plays the 1 seed when it wins). The 2 seed is the overwhelming favorite to be the other host team in the Division Round, although now the 3 seed has a 1-in-5 chance to do so (currently, it has a 0-in-5 chance of hosting a Division Round game). And heck, even the 5 seed has an opportunity to host a Division Round game, if all three road teams win on Wild Card weekend. [continue reading…]

Let’s look at each round of the NFL playoffs,

Wild Card Round

There are two games played here in each conference: the 6 seed travels to on the road to face the 3 seed, and the 5 seed visits the 4 seed. The 1 and 2 seeds have byes.

My assumptions throughout this post are (1) home field advantage matters, and (2) the stronger seed is the better team, with the exception of 4 vs. 5. With 4-team divisions, the best team to not win its division — that is, often, the 2nd best team in the division with a very good division winner — is more often than not a better team than the worst division winner.

Still, home field advantage matters. So I am assuming that the 3 seed has a 60% chance of winning its game, while the 4 seed has a 55% chance of winning its game (this is lower than the general rule that the home team wins about 57% of games).

This means, after the wild card round, there’s a 100% chance that the 1 seed remains, a 100% chance that the 2 seed remains, a 60% chance that the 3 seed remains, a 55% chance that the 4 seed remains, a 45% chance that the 5 seed remains, and a 40% chance that the 6 seed remains. If you want to change these percentages, that’s very easy; more on that at the end of this post.

Division Round

Who will the 1 and 2 seeds face in the Division Round? The 1 seed has a 33% chance of facing the 4 seed, a 27% chance of facing the 5 seed, and a 40% chance of facing the 6 seed. This is because the 1 seed always plays the 6 seed when the 6 seed wins in the Wild Card round (40% chance), and faces the 4/5 winner 60% of the time. The 2 seed has a 60% chance of facing the 3 seed (when the 3 seed beats the 6 seed), a 22% chance of facing the 4 seed, and an 18% chance of facing the 5 seed.

So what will happen in the Division round?  Again, we need to come up with some probability; I took a stab at that below.  If you don’t like them, you can change them letter!

These seem reasonable to me; maybe you want to give the home team a bigger edge, but they’re close enough (and simple!) for our purposes.  So how likely is each seed to make the conference championship game using these numbers?

The 1 seed can make it by beating the 6 seed (40% chance that game happens, 80% chance of winning, therefore a 32% chance the 1 seed makes the Conference Championship Game by beating the 6 seed), the 5 seed (27%, 70%, 19%) or the 4 seed (33%, 75%, 25%): therefore, the 1 seed has a 76% chance of getting to host the title game.

The 2 seed can make it by beating the 5 seed (18% chance, 65% conditional win probability, 12% chance the 2 seed makes it by beating the 5 seed), the 4 seed (22%, 70%, 15%), or the 3 seed (60%, 60%, 36%), for a 63% chance.

You can do this calculation for all the seeds.  The 6 seed, for example, only has an 8% chance (40% chance in the Wild Card round, 20% chance in the Divisional Round) of getting to the CCG.  The 3 seed has a 24% chance, while the 4 and 5 seeds each have around a 14-15% chance.

In fact, the 5 seed has a slightly better chance of making it to the CCG than the 4 seed, because of the assumption that it is the better team.  This is offset, of course, by being on the road in the Wild Card round.

Conference Championship Game

With 6 teams in the playoff field, there are 30 possible combinations (6 x 5) for the conference champinoship game.  Of course, only half of those truly exist because home field automatically goes to the better seed.  And 4 of those 15 combinations are impossible — 1 can’t play 6 and 2 can’t play 3, since it would automatically play in the Division Round, while 3/6 and 4/5 can’t meat in the CCG since they meet in the Wild Card round.  The table below shows the chance of each combination happening, along with my projection of the likelihood that the home team wins.

Again, if you disagree with any of these results, you will be able to change them! Just keep reading.

Conference Champion

If you perform all of the calculations using the assumptions in this post, you’ll see that there’s a roughly 48% chance the 1 seed wins the conference, a ~30% chance the 2 seed makes it to the Super Bowl, and the percentages drop to ~10%, 4-5%, 5-6%, and 2-3% for the 3, 4, 5, and 6 seeds.

Monte Carlo Simulation

One way to re-create the above is by performing a Monte Carlo simulation.  You can download the Excel file that I created here. This file simulates 32,000 NFL postseasons with random results, weighted based on the percentage chance the home team has of winning each game.

Here’s how to read/use this sheet. On the Wild Card sheet, the pre-game win probabilities are in cells V11 and V12, which are highlighted in yellow. Let’s say you think the 5 seed in a given season is really good and/or the 4 seed is really weak; in that case, let’s change the home team win probability from 55% to 40%. Well, this still only shifts the Conference Championship odds (in Column S on the “ccg” sheet) a little bit; the 5 seed jumps from just over 5% to just over 7%, while the 4 seed drops to about 3.5%.

Let’s go to the “div” sheet. Let’s say you think the 1 seed is really strong, and should have a 90% chance of winning no matter its opponent in the Division Round. Even still, this only jumps its odds of winning the conference to about 57%.

What do you think?

Arizona running back David Johnson is one of the better receiving backs in the NFL, but he’s also the most unique. Most teams use their running back as a last resort on passing plays; on average, passes to running backs are right at the line of scrimmage.  But with Johnson, he’s actually thrown passes down the field, rather than just as a checkdown option.

The graph below shows each running back with 40+ targets.  The X-Axis shows the average number air yards on each reception by that running back; the Y-Axis shows the average number of yards gained after the catch.  Most running backs will be up (high YAC) and to the far left (low Air Yards) on this chart.  Johnson, however, is a bit of an outlier.  Arizona frequently lines him up in the slot, and even throws him the occasional deep pass.

The other notable outliers at running back are Austin Ekeler (10.2 YAC per reception) and Dalvin Cook (11.2 YAC per reception): [continue reading…]

Twelve years ago, I wrote a four part series detailing the history of the black quarterback.

Six years ago, I updated that article; today, a further update as the NFL just concluded its 100th season. And while for the last 52 of those seasons, at least one black quarterback was in the NFL, the roles and treatment of black quarterbacks have varied greatly over the last five decades.

The history of black quarterbacks in professional football is complicated. The New York Giants did not have a black quarterback throw a pass until 2007, when Anthony Wright became the first to do so; 10 years later, Geno Smith became the first and only black quarterback to start a game for the Giants. But as far back as 1920, Frederick Douglass “Fritz” Pollard was the tailback of the Akron Pros; a year later, he was promoted to player/coach, and became the first black head coach in NFL history. Pollard helped the Pros win the championship in the NFL’s inaugural season. ^[1]At the time, the NFL went by the name the American Professional Football Association. It was not known as the NFL until 1922. The Pros ran the single-wing, and Pollard was the player lined up behind the center who received the snaps. At the time the forward pass was practically outlawed, so Pollard barely resembles the modern quarterback outside of the fact that he threw a few touchdown passes during his career. ^[2]In addition to his NFL exploits, Pollard also achieved a great deal of fame for leading Brown to back-to-back road wins over the powerhouse schools of the time, Yale and Harvard, in 1916. He would … Continue reading And, of course, it was a time of significant discrimination: Pollard and end Bobby Marshall were the first two black players in professional football history.

As told by Sean Lahman, at least one African American played in the NFL in every year from 1920 to 1933, although Pollard was the only one resembling a quarterback. ^[3]It wasn’t just African Americans that had full access during this era: Jim Thorpe coached and starred in a team composed entirely of Native Americans called the Oorang Indians in 1922 and 1923. Beginning in 1934, that there was an informal ban on black athletes largely championed by Washington Redskins owner George Marshall. It wasn’t until 1946 that black players were re-admitted to the world of professional football, when UCLA’s Kenny Washington ^[4]Who occupied the same backfield with the Bruins as Jackie Robinson. and Woody Strode were signed by the Los Angeles Rams; in the AAFC, Bill Willis and Marion Motley were signed by Paul Brown’s Cleveland Browns that same season.
[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I wrote that the range of passer ratings is getting smaller.  Today, let’s investigate why.  As you know, passer rating is made up of four variables: completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and interception rate.

For each of the four variables, I calculated the standard deviation in that metric for all of the teams in the league in that season.  Last year, for example, the standard deviation in completion percentage was about 3.5%.  That’s on the low end historically, although not the absolute lowest mark.  But in general, it’s fair to say that the league-wide completion percentages are getting more compressed.  Last season, the Saints completed 72% of the team’s passes, and the Bengals were last at 58%. But in 1976, the Raiders were at 64%, while the Bills were at 41%.  That In 1994, the 49ers were a big outlier as they completed 70% of their passes at a time when two teams (Washington, Houston) completed just under 50% of their passes.

With a much higher floor now — the league average completion percentage was 58% in 1994, the same as what the 32nd-ranked Bengals did in 2019 — completion percentages as a whole are simply more compressed.

When it comes to yards per attempt, there isn’t much of a trend.  The variation was a bit higher in the ’70s, but over the last 40 years, the standard deviation is around 0.7 yards per attempt each season.

[continue reading…]

In 1988, the passer rating for the entire NFL was 72.9. In 2019, every single team had a passer rating higher than that mark! Last season, the Carolina Panthers finished with a 74.7 passer rating, which was both the lowest in the 2019 NFL season and also the highest mark in history by a team that ranked last in that statistic.

This is part of two general trends: passer ratings are going up, but also, the variance in passer ratings is declining. [continue reading…]

In what is becoming a yearly tradition, today I am going to post the era-adjusted passer ratings from the 2019 season.

Passer rating is made up of four variables: completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, and interception percentage. The reason passer rating needs to be adjusted for era? Well, that’s pretty simple to explain.

When the formula was derived in the early ’70s, an average rating in each variable was achieved with a 50% completion rate, averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt, a 5% touchdown rate, and a 5.5% interception rate. Since those numbers are wildly out of date, I came up with a formula that perfectly matches the intent of passer rating but ties the variables to the league average in any given season. You can get the formulas and read more background in the linked posts.

In 2019, the four averages were 63.5%, 7.22, 4.46%, and 2.30%, respectively. The big changes, of course, are in completion percentage and interception rate; yards per attempt is much more stable throughout history, while touchdown rate is actually slightly lower than it was in the ’70s.

One thing to keep in mind: these adjustments will not change the order of passer ratings in a given season. So Ryan Tannehill, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson will remain your top 5 leaders; the way the formula works, it simply subtracts a fixed amount from each passer’s actual passer rating. In 2019, that amount was a whopping 23.7 points from each passer.

Below are the 2019 passer ratings: [continue reading…]

There aren’t many shared birthdays among NFL starting quarterbacks. Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock were born four years apart on November 10th, making them the only shared birthday among players with 1,000 passing yards last season. The March 2nd birthday has been held by Ben Roethlisberger alone for a long time, but Tua Tagovailoa — both on the same date 16 years later — arrives just in time to carry that date’s mantle. And watch out: the next decade of the NFL could be defined by Kyler Murray (born August 7th, 1997) and Jalen Hurts (born August 7th, 1998). As for the presumptive number one pick in the 2020 Draft?  Well, Joe Burrow may wind up being the career leader in passing yards by a player born on December 10th by the end of his rookie season.

But when it comes to NFL birthdays, there’s no date that can compare to today.  Drew Bledsoe — born on Valentine’s Day, 1972 — ranks 16th on the all-time passing yards list, and he’s only the third best quarterback born on this date.  Hall of Famer Jim Kelly was born a dozen years before Bledsoe, and Steve McNair was born February 14th, 1973.  There are only 47 quarterbacks with 30,000 passing yards, and three of them were born today.  David Garrard ranks 142nd on the all-time passing yardage list with over 16,000, which is pretty darn good for the 4th best quarterback born on a calendar date.  In fact, no other calendar date has four passers of note (May 17th is the only other day to give us four quarterbacks who hit even 7,500 yards).

And Patrick Ramsey, who ranks as the 5th best February 14th passer, has more yards than any other player who ranks fifth on his birthday’s passing list. The same is true of Anthony Wright at #6, although that’s where the fun stops. With Christian Hackenberg — yes, he celebrating his 25th birthday today — failing to gain any traction in the NFL, May 11th remains the only birthday with seven 1,000-yard passers.

The graph below shows the career passing yards for each birthday for all of NFL history. With over 137,000 passing yards, February 14th is easily the leader: [continue reading…]

Way back in the simpler days of 2013, Chase introduced a Neil Paine creation called True Receiving Yards (TRY). It was a great look at receiving production ^[1]As measured by adjusted catch yards (ACY), which you’ll read about in less than a minute. in the context of both the team’s passing environment relative to the rest of the league and that year’s league’s passing environment relative to the average passing environment since 1970.

I wanted to revisit TRY, this time using my version of the metric (sorry Stuart-Paine loyalists). I will do so in a short series of brief posts. ^[2]Unless I fall prey to ennui and decide to stop without further explanation, which is a very real possibility. In today’s article, I plan to explain my methodology and present an abridged version of the results for single seasons.

Methodology

1. The first step in finding TRY is finding each receiver’s adjusted catch yards. In the original post, Neil used receiving yards and 5 and 20 yard bonuses for catches and touchdowns, respectively. I decided to forego the reception bonus and simply use receptions and a 20 yard touchdown bonus. The 5 yard coefficient for catches isn’t bad, but it’s just not the way I prefer to calculate it. If you would like to see this study done with the original methodology, Pro Football Reference has all the information you need to run the numbers through the gamut. ^[3]You will notice I did not do the subsequent conversion for ACY that Neil did. The reason is simple: I didn’t find it necessary. We can then prorate these numbers to a 16-game league schedule. Using Lance Alworth‘s glorious 1965 campaign as an example: he had 1602 yards and 14 touchdowns, which translates to 1882 ACY. Using 16/14 to prorate to a modern league schedule, that comes to 2151.
2. Next, we find the number of pass attempts for each team in the league, as well as for the league as a whole. The original version used dropbacks, whereas my version uses passes attempts. This is because it allows me to go back to 1932 rather than stopping at 1949. ^[4]Or 1947 if you want to use estimated sacks based on sack yardage numbers. By doing this, we can see how often a team passed the ball relative to the rest of the league. For example, the 1965 Chargers threw the ball 28.6 times per game. The AFL average was 32.6. That means the San Diegans passed 88% as often as the average team that league season. Thus, Bambi’s 1965 season gets an adjustment: 2151/0.88 = 2449. Because such steep adjustments can seem a bit too much, we can soften the adjustment by dividing 2151 by the average of 0.88 and 1: 2151/0.94 = 2290.
3. Now, we find the number of pass attempts per game in each season, as well as the historical average for passes per game. Like the second step allowed us to compare a receiver’s team pass-happiness to contemporary teams, this step allows us to compare his league’s pass propensity to all teams “in NFL (and AAFC and AFL) history.” Since 1932, the first season for which official and mostly-reliable statistics are widely recorded, the average team has thrown the ball 30.35 times per game. Continuing with our Alworth ’65 magnum opus, the 1965 AFL passes 32.61 times per bout. A little back of the envelope math tells us that’s 107% of the historical average. If we soften that the same way we did the adjustment in step two, it drops to 104%.
4. There are a few paths we can take from here. We can combine the two hardest adjustments like so: 2449/1.07 = 2279. Alternatively, we can combine the soft adjustment from step two with the hard adjustment from step three: 2290/1.07 = 2132. Last, and my preferred method, we can combine the two soft adjustments: 2290/1.04 = 2208.

I hope to all that is pure and true that I have adequately explained this to the FP Faithful. If I have failed to do so, I’m happy to have offseason banter in the comments. For now, let’s look at some tables.

The Boring Table

The first table contains the sausage making data that informs the more interesting tables to follow and is sorted by greatest total adjustment. ^[5]The combined statistical adjustments of the soft team passing ratio and the soft year adjustment. Read it thus: Bill Smith, playing in the 1935 NFL, caught 24 passes for 318 yards and 2 touchdowns, worth 358 adjusted catch yards. his team played 12 games and passed 10.6 times per contest. The league averaged 15.4 passes per game, so Smith’s squad sported a ratio of 0.69 and a soft ratio of 0.84. The 1935 NFL league year usage rate factor is 0.51, and the soft factor is 0.75. With a league adjustment of 1.18 (1/0.84) and a year adjustment of 1.33 (1/0.75), Smith’s final adjustment is 1.57.

If you are the type who is interested in the nuts and bolts rather than just the results, you may like this one. It shows all the little background modifications outlined in the methodology section, as well as the combination of the two soft adjustments, which will be the basis for what I write about this going forward.

You can see Bill Smith gets the most help from adjustments, with a whopping 57% boost to his ACY. I like this, in part, because it highlights the problems we encounter when we go back too far when trying to compare passing and receiving across eras. The same thing happens when you apply Chase’s RANY and VAL to Sid Luckman‘s 1943. Is it fair that some of these antediluvian fellows get such a large bump? I can’t answer that, but I think it’s important to think about. ^[6]Important in the NFL stats history sense of the word. Not actual important. We’re all wasting our time with this nonsense anyway.

On the flip side, Calvin Johnson sees the biggest decrease, losing about 20% of his ACY. he doesn’t get any help from prorating, since he already played in a 16-game league. His team was so pass happy that it made people think Matthew Stafford was a future Hall of Famer. And his league was so pass happy that several Hall of Average passers had rapidly ascended career leaderboards. One could argue that it is specifically because Megatron was so talented that his team passed so frequently, and that is a reasonable position to hold. Again, I don’t know that there are definite answers to debates like this, and I’m not here to provide them even if there are. I just want to facilitate (hopefully) friendly discussion.

The Table You Really Want

The table below contains several different versions of True Receiving Yards, based on regular season production, and is sorted by my favorite version – TRYSoft. Here’s how to decipher the information: The famous Crazy Legs 1951 season saw him haul in 66 passes for 1495 yards and 17 touchdowns. That’s good for 1835 adjusted catch yards. That prorates to 2447 ACY in a 16 game schedule. Hirsch played for a pass-happy team, so his team adjustment brings that down to 2121. When we soften that a bit, the number increases to 2272. TRYMax is based on the full team adjustment and the full league adjustment. In Hirsch’s case, that means we divide 2121 by the 1951 NFL factor of 0.888, giving us 2389. TRYMid is based on the soft team adjustment with the full league adjustment, so we divide 2272 by the 0.888 factor, arriving at 2559. My preferred method, TRYSoft, uses softened factors for both the team and the league. For Crazy Legs, that means dividing 2272 by 1951’s soft factor of 0.944, finally landing on 2407.

I think if most regular readers here were to guess prior to seeing the table, they would have correctly picked out the top season (and easily five of the top ten) without giving it much thought. Hopefully this suggests face validity and not mass stupidity on our parts.

The list contains 3090 seasons from 937 players. Only seasons that saw a player gain at least 750 TRYSoft are included. ^[7]That is combined regular season and postseason TRYSoft. Ranks are with respect to combined numbers, though those numbers aren’t in the tables presented today. The playoff princess is in another … Continue reading Obviously, Jerry Rice leads all receivers in appearances with 18. Larry Fitzgerald backs him up with 16, while Terrell Owens and Tony Gonzalez boast 14 apiece. The GOAT’s top season (playoffs included) is 1989, which ranks sixth. He also sports top-100 seasons ranking 13th, 16th, 17th, 41st, 73rd, and 76th. His seven top-100 seasons leads all receivers.

Underrated-by-modern-box-score-scouts-receiver Michael Irvin has five seasons in the top 100, as does the receiver with arguably the best highlight reel of them all, Randy Moss. Don Hutson, perhaps surprisingly, only has four. Lance Alworth, Steve Smith Sr., and Antonio Brown have three.

I’m sure there are plenty more interesting observations to be made, but I’ll leave that to the good people in the comments.

I’m going to take a little vacation: both in the physical sense and from writing every day. Given how tight this community is, I wanted to let everyone know that I probably won’t be updating this blog for the next week or two, but don’t worry about me.

In the meantime, please leave any ideas, thoughts, or anything on your mind in the comments. As we begin the 2020 offseason, what are you interesting in reading about? Writing about? Studying? Debating?

Thanks,

Chase