In the 4th quarter and in overtime this year, Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has been really, really good.  Newton has completed 54 of 83 passes for 733 yards with 6 touchdown throws and just one interception, along with five sacks for -35 yards.  Newton is therefore averaging an impressive 8.78 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt after 45 minutes have gone by in each game; among quarterbacks with at least 40 pass attempts this year, that’s the second best average in the league, a hair behind Tom Brady (8.81) and just ahead of Carson Palmer (8.59). (Although I will note that noted clutch quarterback Tony Romo is averaging 9.77 ANY/A on 21 4th quarter/overtime pass attempts this year.)

Below are the passing stats from every quarterback this year in the 4th quarter and overtime so far in 2015:

And below are the passing stats from every quarterback in the 1st through 3rd quarters this season, minimum 120 attempts:

Newton’s raw stats are not great this year, but the Panthers are 12-0. There are many reasons for that — a great defense, a great running game (in part, aided by Newton), perhaps traditional stats don’t quite capture what Newton’s vertical passing game brings to the table ^[1]Although I doubt that one. Newton’s average pass travels an impressive 10.47 yards in the air, third highest in the league. But the top two players in this metric are Ben Roethlisberger and … Continue reading — but here’s a simple one: he’s been outstanding in the 4th quarter, and that is where most high-leverage plays occur. In fact, Newton’s ANY/A in s 2.59 yards per attempt high in the 4th quarter/overtime than it is in the first three quarters; that’s the second highest increase of any passer this year.

Of course, whether Newton’s 4th quarter heroics are repeatable or sustainable is a very different question. But when trying to figure out why Newton’s numbers feel incongruous with the overall feel of Newton’s game this season, this is probably a big reason why.

(Oh, and man, that Derek Carr line!)