Passing Stats Through Week 12: Brees, Saints Look MVP Caliber

by Chase Stuart on November 28, 2018

in Checkdowns

In 2008, Philip Rivers average 8.04 ANY/A, the best rate in the NFL. This season, Rivers is averaging 8.96 ANY/A, and yet he ranks just fourth in that metric in 2018. That’s a sign of how far the passing environment has changed in the last decade.

Drew Brees led the NFL in ANY/A in 2009 with an 8.31 average; he’s currently having his best statistic season (without adjusting for era), with a 9.69 ANY/A average that would rank as the second best of the modern era. He is the frontrunner in the MVP race, and for good reason: his team has the best record in football and he leads all QBs in ANY/A, a double feature that would surely lock up the MVP crown if it is still true by the end of the year.

Below are the season to date passing stats.

Rk	Quarterback	Tm	Age	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	ANY/A	Value
1	Drew Brees	NOR	39	356	3135	29	2	10	77	9.69	1152
2	Patrick Mahomes	KAN	23	391	3628	37	10	20	125	9.23	1102
3	Jared Goff	LAR	24	381	3547	26	6	24	148	9.01	997
4	Philip Rivers	LAC	37	344	3119	26	6	19	115	8.96	877
5	Matt Ryan	ATL	33	434	3683	24	5	33	217	7.97	663
6	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	35	413	3271	20	1	34	233	7.59	466
7	Ryan Fitzpatrick	TAM	36	246	2366	17	12	14	76	8.04	388
8	Russell Wilson	SEA	30	309	2531	25	5	34	241	7.48	319
9	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	36	472	3664	24	12	16	108	7.16	301
10	Tom Brady	NWE	41	402	3031	19	7	16	111	7.14	248
11	Andrew Luck	IND	29	437	3112	32	11	11	86	7.08	238
12	Cam Newton	CAR	29	359	2699	22	7	20	156	7.04	186
13	Deshaun Watson	HOU	23	333	2807	20	9	37	205	7.02	174
14	Kirk Cousins	MIN	30	447	3289	22	7	28	174	6.82	130
15	Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	24	321	2469	20	9	19	119	6.9	119
16	Carson Wentz	PHI	26	330	2540	16	6	29	196	6.67	43
18	Baker Mayfield	CLE	23	311	2242	17	7	22	154	6.35	-67
19	Jameis Winston	TAM	24	202	1692	10	11	14	68	6.15	-85
20	Eli Manning	NYG	37	401	3093	14	7	38	295	6.29	-111
21	Andy Dalton	CIN	31	365	2566	21	11	21	157	6.05	-193
22	Brock Osweiler	MIA	28	178	1247	6	4	16	124	5.48	-207
23	Marcus Mariota	TEN	25	239	1886	9	6	35	211	5.78	-209
24	Dak Prescott	DAL	25	336	2427	13	5	38	232	5.96	-219
25	Derek Carr	OAK	27	385	2827	13	8	35	200	6.02	-223
26	Joe Flacco	BAL	33	379	2465	12	6	16	79	5.96	-230
27	Alex Smith	WAS	34	328	2180	10	5	22	121	5.81	-258
28	C.J. Beathard	SFO	25	169	1252	8	7	18	156	5.03	-283
29	Case Keenum	DEN	30	390	2802	13	10	26	187	5.83	-299
30	Matthew Stafford	DET	30	406	2841	17	10	32	200	5.78	-337
31	Blake Bortles	JAX	26	369	2572	13	10	27	149	5.64	-360
33	Sam Darnold	NYJ	21	289	1934	11	14	21	129	4.5	-635
34	Josh Rosen	ARI	21	247	1521	10	11	24	181	3.86	-729

In addition, I calculate the same stats on the team level, but with one other change: I included first downs, at a rate of 9 adjusted net yards per first down (and therefore reduced the TD bonus to 11 adjusted net yards, since all first downs are touchdowns). That table below:

Rk	Tm	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	G Pass Yd	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	1stD	1D/PP	Adj ANY/A	Value
1	NOR	275	363	75.8%	3199	29	2	11	80	159	42.5%	12.78	1356
2	LAR	259	383	67.6%	3559	26	6	24	148	173	42.5%	12.25	1259
3	KAN	264	391	67.5%	3628	37	10	20	125	168	40.9%	12.10	1211
4	LAC	240	348	69.0%	3127	26	6	20	122	148	40.2%	11.83	985
5	ATL	315	441	71.4%	3703	24	5	33	217	175	36.9%	10.76	762
6	TAM	301	449	67.0%	4058	27	23	28	144	203	42.6%	10.49	638
7	PIT	315	477	66.0%	3685	25	12	16	108	172	34.9%	9.86	348
8	NWE	265	405	65.4%	3081	19	7	16	111	144	34.2%	9.88	307
9	GNB	259	421	61.5%	3326	20	2	36	254	143	31.3%	9.82	307
10	CAR	251	361	69.5%	2712	22	7	20	156	145	38.1%	9.94	301
11	MIN	318	447	71.1%	3289	22	7	28	174	171	36%	9.64	234
12	HOU	220	334	65.9%	2807	20	9	37	205	134	36.1%	9.77	228
13	SEA	206	309	66.7%	2531	25	5	34	241	111	32.4%	9.73	200
14	IND	301	442	68.1%	3114	32	11	11	86	160	35.3%	9.55	179
15	CHI	238	359	66.3%	2707	22	9	23	131	128	33.5%	9.33	69
16	NYG	278	402	69.2%	3150	15	7	38	295	143	32.5%	9.07	-35
17	PHI	285	413	69.0%	3006	17	7	34	222	149	33.3%	8.94	-94
18	CIN	249	402	61.9%	2805	22	11	22	169	143	33.7%	8.66	-210
19	TEN	207	303	68.3%	2341	12	8	39	244	113	33%	8.44	-244
20	MIA	217	334	65.0%	2503	18	9	28	225	110	30.4%	8.46	-252
21	OAK	264	388	68.0%	2835	13	8	36	207	133	31.4%	8.51	-272
22	DAL	219	337	65.0%	2427	13	5	38	232	111	29.6%	8.30	-320
23	DEN	246	392	62.8%	2842	14	10	26	187	126	30.1%	8.36	-332
24	SFO	216	351	61.5%	2703	18	14	35	280	131	33.9%	8.21	-363
25	BAL	266	435	61.1%	2880	14	9	21	105	142	31.1%	8.34	-371
26	DET	274	412	66.5%	2855	17	11	32	200	148	33.3%	8.29	-384
27	WAS	235	378	62.2%	2502	13	8	27	151	122	30.1%	7.98	-474
28	JAX	245	400	61.3%	2732	14	11	31	177	132	30.6%	7.89	-542
29	CLE	237	397	59.7%	2715	19	10	35	235	126	29.2%	7.81	-581
30	NYJ	202	368	54.9%	2345	12	17	26	160	103	26.1%	6.29	-1127
31	ARI	187	327	57.2%	1921	12	15	30	214	88	24.6%	5.48	-1311
32	BUF	185	336	55.1%	2000	6	16	34	242	90	24.3%	5.17	-1472
	Total	8,039	12,305	65.3%	93,088	625	297	889	5,847	4,444	33.7%	9.15

The Bills, Jets, and Cardinals all stand out as the worst passing teams in the NFL. Those are 3 of the 4 teams that drafted rookie quarterbacks in the top half of the first round in 2018, and all three have given their rookies significant playing time. It’s probably not too surprising to see those teams at the bottom, although the magnitude may be noteworthy. In fact, the bottom 4 teams are all led by rookie quarterbacks, but as Baker Mayfield continues to play well, it doesn’t feel appropriate lumping him with the other three (especially since the Browns are far better than the other three teams, who really stick out like sore thumbs).

And for those who have been watching, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers still lead the NFL in passing first down percentage and rank 6th in pass efficiency.

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