Remember when 300 yard passing games were for losers? Part II

by Chase Stuart on August 17, 2015

in History, Passing, Statistics

Back in December 2009, Jason Lisk wrote about a recent trend in the NFL: quarterbacks throwing for 300 passing yards and actually winning. Jason wondered whether that was something fluky, or a sign of the shifting nature of the NFL. With the benefit of hindsight, I think the answer is…. well, I think it’s pretty clear.

Including playoffs, quarterbacks who threw for 300+ yards in a game during the 2009 season won an incredible 63.3% of games. And that mark remains the highest in modern history. Over the last five years (2010 to 2014), quarterbacks have won 52% of games when cracking that mark; during the decade of the ’90s, quarterbacks won 53% of their games when throwing for 300+ yards.

Of course, the likelihood of a quarterback throwing for 300+ yards has increased significantly. Over the last four years, quarterbacks have thrown for 300+ yards in 25% of all games, an enormous increase relative to most of NFL history. The graph below shows both pieces of information: in blue, and measured against the left Y-Axis, shows winning percentage by year when a quarterback throws for 300+ yards; in red, and against the right Y-Axis, is the percentage of all games where a quarterback hit the 300+ yard mark:

The 2009 season was certainly an outlier; other than that, there doesn’t seem to be much of an increase over time (at least since the mid-’80s) in winning percentage for 300+ yard passers. The table below shows the information from the chart above but in data form:

Search:

Year	300 pass	Wins	Win Perc	300+ Rate
1970	13	7	53.8%	3.6%
1971	11	4.5	40.9%	3%
1972	8	4	50%	2.2%
1973	10	4.5	45%	2.7%
1974	11	4.5	40.9%	3%
1975	17	9	52.9%	4.7%
1976	15	10	66.7%	3.8%
1977	6	4	66.7%	1.5%
1978	17	7	41.2%	3.8%
1979	46	21	45.7%	10.3%
1980	58	27.5	47.4%	12.9%
1981	61	23.5	38.5%	13.6%
1982	43	20	46.5%	17.1%
1983	69	26	37.7%	15.4%
1984	75	39	52%	16.7%
1985	66	31	47%	14.7%
1986	63	31.5	50%	14.1%
1987	60	31	51.7%	14.3%
1988	56	29.5	52.7%	12.5%
1989	69	35	50.7%	15.4%
1990	47	29	61.7%	10.5%
1991	57	29	50.9%	12.7%
1992	45	21	46.7%	10%
1993	41	21	51.2%	9.2%
1994	69	37	53.6%	15.4%
1995	84	41	48.8%	17.5%
1996	50	29	58%	10.4%
1997	47	20	42.6%	9.8%
1998	56	29	51.8%	11.7%
1999	75	45	60%	15.1%
2000	68	36	52.9%	13.7%
2001	74	38	51.4%	14.9%
2002	84	47.5	56.5%	16.4%
2003	67	33	49.3%	13.1%
2004	87	38	43.7%	17%
2005	66	32	48.5%	12.9%
2006	68	37	54.4%	13.3%
2007	83	43	51.8%	16.2%
2008	81	48.5	59.9%	15.8%
2009	109	69	63.3%	21.3%
2010	99	49	49.5%	19.3%
2011	129	71	55%	25.2%
2012	133	63	47.4%	26%
2013	124	62	50%	24.2%
2014	129	74.5	57.8%	25.2%

Update: As requested by Nick in the comments, here’s a graph showing the win percentage of the team that threw for more gross passing yards in each game.

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