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RG3 and Failed Completions

Since 1940, there have been 616 times where a team rushed for at least 125 yards and completed at least 75% of its passes. On Sunday, when Washington pulled off that feat against the Texans, they became the first team to fail to score double digit points in the process.

In the second half, both RG3 and Niles Paul lost fumbles inside the Houston 10-yard line; that obviously contributed to the team failing to score more than 6 points. But Griffin’s 78.4% completion percentage was also pretty misleading. Griffin’s average throw went just 5.8 yards in the air, and his average completion covered just 3.9 yards before including his receiver’s yards gained after the catch. Both of those averages put ranked 30th among 32 qualifying passers. But while short throws can be part of an effective offense, on Sunday, that wasn’t the case for Washington. Consider:

  • A 4th and 10 completion to Roy Helu for 6 yards
  • A 3rd and 16 completion (on the Washington 15) to Helu for 9 yards
  • A 3rd and 13 completion to DeSean Jackson for 0 yards
  • A 2nd and 25 completion to Jackson for 0 yards
  • A 2nd and 19 completion to Pierre Garcon for 3 yards
  • A 2nd and 14 completion to Logal Paulsen for -3 yards
  • A 2nd and 8 completion to Garcon for 3 yards
  • A 2nd and 1 completion to Jackson for 0 yards
  • Four 1st and 10 completions to Jordan Reed, Paulsen, Paul, and Darrel Young for 4, 3, 2, and 1 yard(s), respectively.

Sure, Griffin completed 29 of his 37 passes, but 12 of his completions did little or nothing to help his offense.  He also was sacked three times.  As a result, just 17 of his 40 dropbacks — or 42.5% — were successful completions.

To be fair, this isn’t as much a knock of Griffin as the Washington offense as a whole, or perhaps just a counter to those who like to rely on completion percentage or its brother, passer rating.  If Griffin’s targets could have gained more yards after the catch, things would have looked a lot different.  And against the frightening pass rush of J.J. Watt and company, [1]While Jadeveon Clowney went out early, Whitney Mercilus, Brooks Reed, and Brian Cushing all got to Griffin several times. short passes make some sense.  But looking at Griffin’s completion percentage and concluding he had a good game is kind of silly. Again, more a knock on the misuse of statistics than the player.

Football Outsiders considers a completion that fails to gain a first down on 3rd or 4th down, a completion that fails to gain at least 60% of the distance needed on 2nd down, or a completion that fails to gain at least 45% of the needed yards on 1st down to all be failed completions. Those cut-offs seem reasonable enough to use for theses purposes. Looking at the numbers, Griffin led the NFL in failed completions in week one.

Here’s how to read the table below. In week 1, Griffin completed 29 of 37 passes, producing a completion percentage of 78.4%. However, 12 of his completions were failed completions, as identified above. That means 41.4% of his completions were failed completions. He also took 3 sacks; as a result, just 42.5% of his dropbacks were successful completions. The difference between his raw completion percentage and his SCmp/DB average was 35.9%.

NameTeamCmpAttCmp%Failed CmpFC %SackSCmp/DbDiff
Robert GriffinWAS293778.41241.4342.535.9
Tom BradyNWE295651.81137.943021.8
Nick FolesPHI274560103753426
Andrew LuckIND3553661028.6344.621.4
Geno SmithNYJ232882.1939.1246.735.5
Derek CarrOAK203262.5945232.430.1
Derek AndersonCAR243470.6833.3145.724.9
Andy DaltonCIN253865.8832044.721.1
Chad HenneJAX244355.8833.3334.821
Austin DavisSTL162369.6743.8433.336.2
EJ ManuelBUF162272.7743.8139.133.6
Russell WilsonSEA192867.9736.8141.426.5
Eli ManningNYG183354.5738.9231.423.1
Matt RyanATL314372.1722.6154.517.5
Matt CasselMIN172568635.3142.325.7
Aaron RodgersGNB233369.7626.1347.222.5
Alex SmithKAN193554.3631.6433.321
Josh McCownTAM223562.9627.3342.120.8
Matthew StaffordDET223268.8627.3148.520.3
Carson PalmerARI243764.9625246.218.7
Joe FlaccoBAL356256.5617.1344.611.8
Brian HoyerCLE193161.3526.3341.220.1
Jay CutlerCHI344969.4514.7256.912.5
Drew BreesNOR294269517.2057.111.9
Jake LockerTEN223366.7418.2448.618
Ryan TannehillMIA183256.3422.2142.413.8
Philip RiversSDG213658.3419047.211.1
Ryan FitzpatrickHOU142263.6321.4147.815.8
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT233467.6313452.615
Peyton ManningDEN223661.129.1154.17.1
Tony RomoDAL233762.214.33557.2
Colin KaepernickSFO162369.616.3162.57.1
  • Only seven quarterbacks produced successful plays on at least half of their dropbacks in week one. The leader was Colin Kaepernick, who had just one failed completion and one sack, while still completing 70% of his passes against the worst defense in football.
  • The next three passers on the list all lost, although it’s easy to figure out why. Drew Brees and the Saints lost a 37-34 overtime shootout in Atlanta, but the blame for that game doesn’t fall on the offense. Jay Cutler also lost in overtime, but Cutler threw two interceptions and the Bears finished -2 in the turnover department. All three Bears turnovers were costly, and Pro-Football-Reference calculates Chicago losing 17.5 expected points off of those turnovers. That was even more the story in Dallas, where four turnovers produced -23.3 expected points.
  • In addition to Griffin, a quartet of youngsters played it very safe on Sunday. Austin Davis, Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, and Derek Carr all “took what the defense gave them” in week one. Such a conservative philosophy can work, of course, and it’s arguably a good sign that the offensive coordinators are not asking these players to do too much. All four finished with a Successful Completions/Dropback ratio at least 30 points lower than their completion percentage. Of course, the downside to a conservative passing attack that protects a young quarterback is it could lead to a deficit, and forcing the quarterback to suddenly play much more aggressively late in the game.
  • To bring things back to Griffin, what do we think of his performance? Pro Football Focus ranked him as the 19th best quarterback in week 1, just slightly better than some of the other quarterback metrics. One would hope that Jackson would help stretch the field, increasing Griffin’s average length of throw. The third-year quarterback also rushed for just two yards, which does not seem like a good use of his talents. It’s only one week, of course, and I’m still high on the Washington offense (although Reed looks to be out for a couple of weeks with a hamstring). But the early returns on Sunday weren’t very good, despite the gaudy completion percentage.

References

References
1 While Jadeveon Clowney went out early, Whitney Mercilus, Brooks Reed, and Brian Cushing all got to Griffin several times.
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