Steve Smith Played On Teams That Didn’t Pass Often or Pass Well

by Chase Stuart on May 12, 2019

in Receiving

One of the greatest receivers ever

As noted yesterday, Steve Smith played on teams that didn’t pass very often (just 94% as often as the average team) or pass well (his average team’s passing offense produced a -0.12 Relative ANY/A). He’s the only player in the top 20 in career receiving yards who played on teams that were below average in both categories; Muhsin Muhammad and Joey Galloway are the only other such players in the top 40, and Eric Moulds (who ranks 49th) is the only other such player in the top 75 in career receiving yards. There’s a reason that Smith has long been a Football Perspective favorite.

Using the results from Friday’s post and Saturday’s post, we can sum the results to see which receivers really played in the most disadvantageous environments. To do that we need to convert each player’s results in both Pass Ratio and Relative ANY/A into Z-scores.

For Pass Ratio, the average for this group of 200 players was 102.5%, and the standard deviation was 6.7%. So for Smith, whose teams passed on 93.6% of plays, he has a Z-Score in the Pass Ratio variable of -1.33, since his teams were 1.33 standard deviations below average (102.5% minus 93.6% is 8.9%, and 8.9% divided by 6.7% is 1.33). For Relative ANY/A, the average was +0.35 and the standard deviation was 0.63. For Smith, he has a Z-Score in pass efficiency of -0.74, since his teams were 0.12 ANY/A below average (+0.35 minus -0.12 is 0.47, and 0.47 divided by 0.63 gives us how many standard deviations his teams were below average).

Note that the averages here for both pass quantity and quality are above average. That’s not surprising, but it is noteworthy. One, the players with the most receiving yards tended to play on better passing offenses, but we also give more weight to a player’s best seasons, which tend to come when they play with good quarterbacks who frequently pass.

The table below shows the full results for all 200 players. Here’s how to read the Jerry Rice line. He is the career leader in receiving yards with 22,895, and he played from 1985 to 2004. His average team had a RANY/A of +1.57, which was 1.91 standard deviations above average. His average team also had a Pass Ratio of 105.8% of league average, which was 0.51 standard deviations above average. Add those numbers together, and he has a Z-Score total of 2.42.

Yds Rk	Player	Yards	FYr	LYr	RANY/A	Z-RANY/A	Pass Ratio	Z-PR%	Z-Score Total
1	Jerry Rice	22895	1985	2004	1.57	1.91	105.8%	0.51	2.42
2	Larry Fitzgerald	16279	2004	2018	-0.32	-1.06	108.7%	0.94	-0.12
3	Terrell Owens	15934	1996	2010	0.82	0.74	102.4%	-0.02	0.72
4	Randy Moss	15292	1998	2012	1.18	1.31	102.9%	0.07	1.37
5	Isaac Bruce	15208	1994	2009	0.38	0.03	107.7%	0.78	0.82
6	Tony Gonzalez	15127	1997	2013	0.52	0.26	103.8%	0.2	0.46
7	Tim Brown	14934	1988	2004	0.41	0.09	97.8%	-0.7	-0.61
8	Steve Smith	14731	2001	2016	-0.12	-0.74	93.6%	-1.33	-2.07
9	Marvin Harrison	14580	1996	2008	1.51	1.81	106%	0.53	2.34
10	Reggie Wayne	14345	2001	2014	1.34	1.55	109.5%	1.05	2.60
11	Andre Johnson	14185	2003	2016	0.14	-0.34	99.8%	-0.4	-0.74
12	James Lofton	14004	1978	1993	0.14	-0.34	99.5%	-0.44	-0.78
13	Cris Carter	13899	1987	2002	0.54	0.29	105.1%	0.4	0.69
14	Anquan Boldin	13779	2003	2016	0.03	-0.52	103.3%	0.13	-0.39
15	Henry Ellard	13777	1983	1998	0.24	-0.17	96.9%	-0.83	-1.01
16	Torry Holt	13382	1999	2009	0.56	0.32	110.6%	1.23	1.55
17	Andre Reed	13198	1985	2000	0.34	-0.02	97.1%	-0.81	-0.83
18	Steve Largent	13089	1976	1989	0.21	-0.23	103.2%	0.11	-0.12
19	Irving Fryar	12785	1984	2000	-0.05	-0.64	104.2%	0.26	-0.38
20	Art Monk	12721	1980	1995	0.63	0.43	101.6%	-0.13	0.30
21	Jason Witten	12448	2003	2017	0.64	0.45	100.7%	-0.27	0.18
22	Brandon Marshall	12351	2006	2018	-0.04	-0.63	100.3%	-0.33	-0.96
23	Jimmy Smith	12287	1995	2005	0.51	0.25	97.6%	-0.73	-0.48
24	Charlie Joiner	12146	1969	1986	0.95	0.94	117.2%	2.22	3.16
25	Hines Ward	12083	1998	2011	0.42	0.11	92%	-1.57	-1.46
26	Derrick Mason	12061	1997	2011	0.29	-0.09	98.2%	-0.64	-0.74
27	Michael Irvin	11904	1988	1999	0.83	0.74	95.8%	-1.01	-0.27
28	Antonio Gates	11841	2003	2018	1.11	1.2	98%	-0.67	0.53
29	Don Maynard	11834	1958	1973	0.42	0.1	105.6%	0.47	0.57
30	Calvin Johnson	11619	2007	2015	-0.18	-0.84	115.2%	1.92	1.08
31	Muhsin Muhammad	11438	1996	2009	-0.15	-0.8	97.3%	-0.77	-1.57
32	Rod Smith	11389	1995	2006	0.77	0.66	98.9%	-0.53	0.12
33	Keenan McCardell	11373	1992	2007	0.61	0.4	100.7%	-0.26	0.13
34	Antonio Brown	11207	2010	2018	0.75	0.63	106.8%	0.65	1.28
35	Chad Johnson	11059	2001	2011	0.19	-0.25	104%	0.23	-0.02
36	Joey Galloway	10950	1995	2010	-0.45	-1.27	96.3%	-0.94	-2.20
37	Roddy White	10863	2005	2015	0.37	0.03	103.7%	0.18	0.21
38	Gary Clark	10856	1985	1995	0.78	0.67	103.8%	0.19	0.86
39	Julio Jones	10731	2011	2018	0.98	0.98	107%	0.67	1.66
40	Stanley Morgan	10716	1977	1990	0.32	-0.05	93.3%	-1.37	-1.42
41	Keyshawn Johnson	10571	1996	2006	-0.02	-0.59	103%	0.07	-0.52
42	Harold Jackson	10372	1969	1983	0.55	0.31	97.4%	-0.77	-0.45
43	Santana Moss	10283	2001	2014	0.29	-0.1	97.1%	-0.8	-0.90
44	Lance Alworth	10266	1962	1972	1.35	1.57	99%	-0.52	1.05
45	DeSean Jackson	10261	2008	2018	0.66	0.48	103.9%	0.21	0.69
46	Andre Rison	10205	1989	2000	0.27	-0.14	104.7%	0.34	0.20
47	Donald Driver	10137	1999	2012	0.81	0.72	110.1%	1.15	1.87
48	Shannon Sharpe	10060	1990	2003	0.37	0.02	102%	-0.07	-0.05
49	Eric Moulds	9995	1996	2007	-0.08	-0.69	97.8%	-0.7	-1.39
50	Wes Welker	9924	2005	2015	1.63	2.01	109.8%	1.1	3.11
51	Drew Hill	9831	1979	1993	0.28	-0.11	105.4%	0.45	0.34
52	Marques Colston	9759	2006	2015	1.39	1.63	117.5%	2.26	3.90
53	Amani Toomer	9497	1996	2008	-0.07	-0.67	104.5%	0.3	-0.37
54	Rob Moore	9368	1990	1999	-0.57	-1.45	104.6%	0.32	-1.13
55	Demaryius Thomas	9330	2010	2018	0.59	0.37	105.5%	0.45	0.82
56	Raymond Berry	9275	1955	1967	1.36	1.58	109.8%	1.1	2.68
57	Herman Moore	9174	1991	2001	0.1	-0.41	96.5%	-0.9	-1.30
58	Anthony Miller	9148	1988	1997	-0.19	-0.86	104.4%	0.3	-0.57
59	Charley Taylor	9110	1964	1977	1.21	1.35	108.6%	0.91	2.26
60	Vincent Jackson	9080	2005	2016	0.62	0.41	96.5%	-0.89	-0.48
61	Tony Martin	9065	1990	2001	0.19	-0.26	101.3%	-0.18	-0.44
62	Harold Carmichael	8985	1971	1984	0.29	-0.1	106.1%	0.54	0.44
63.5	Mark Clayton	8974	1983	1993	1.63	2.02	116.2%	2.07	4.08
63.5	Fred Biletnikoff	8974	1965	1978	1.27	1.44	103.1%	0.1	1.53
65	Wes Chandler	8966	1978	1988	0.95	0.94	115.6%	1.97	2.92
66	Roy Green	8965	1979	1992	-0.03	-0.6	101.3%	-0.18	-0.78
67	A.J. Green	8907	2011	2018	0.13	-0.35	96%	-0.98	-1.33
68	Ricky Proehl	8878	1990	2006	-0.07	-0.67	102.4%	-0.01	-0.68
69	Mark Duper	8869	1983	1992	1.74	2.18	113.6%	1.67	3.84
70	Terry Glenn	8823	1996	2006	0.19	-0.26	103.8%	0.2	-0.06
71	Terance Mathis	8809	1990	2002	0.19	-0.25	100.2%	-0.34	-0.60
72	Mark Carrier	8763	1987	1998	-0.87	-1.93	100.1%	-0.36	-2.28
73	Joe Horn	8744	1996	2007	0.32	-0.05	102.9%	0.06	0.01
74	John Stallworth	8723	1974	1987	0.46	0.16	94.3%	-1.23	-1.07
75	Johnnie Morton	8719	1994	2005	0.14	-0.34	102.5%	0	-0.34
76	Cliff Branch	8685	1972	1984	0.61	0.4	98%	-0.67	-0.27
77	Laveranues Coles	8609	2000	2009	-0.39	-1.17	96.5%	-0.89	-2.06
78	Jordy Nelson	8587	2008	2018	1.38	1.62	101.4%	-0.16	1.46
79	Paul Warfield	8565	1964	1977	1.32	1.52	88%	-2.17	-0.66
80	Plaxico Burress	8499	2000	2012	0.06	-0.46	97.6%	-0.73	-1.20
81	Billy Howton	8459	1952	1963	0.06	-0.47	108.9%	0.96	0.49
82	Tommy McDonald	8410	1957	1968	0.35	-0.01	108.6%	0.92	0.90
83	Eddie Kennison	8345	1996	2007	0.38	0.04	98.6%	-0.58	-0.54
84	Wesley Walker	8306	1977	1989	0.12	-0.37	99.3%	-0.48	-0.85
85	Greg Jennings	8291	2006	2015	1	1.02	103.2%	0.11	1.13
86	Carroll Dale	8277	1960	1973	0.05	-0.49	87%	-2.32	-2.81
87	Curtis Conway	8230	1993	2004	-0.15	-0.79	102%	-0.07	-0.86
88	Ernest Givins	8215	1986	1995	0.31	-0.06	110.5%	1.21	1.14
89	Jeff Graham	8172	1991	2001	-0.3	-1.03	102.8%	0.04	-0.99
90	Eric Martin	8161	1985	1994	0.16	-0.31	93.2%	-1.39	-1.70
91	Sterling Sharpe	8134	1988	1994	-0.22	-0.9	110.5%	1.21	0.31
92	Webster Slaughter	8111	1986	1998	0.04	-0.5	107.7%	0.78	0.28
93	T.Y. Hilton	8097	2012	2018	0.09	-0.41	107.6%	0.77	0.36
94	Haven Moses	8091	1968	1981	-0.53	-1.39	101.2%	-0.19	-1.58
95	Mike Wallace	8072	2009	2017	0.02	-0.53	101.3%	-0.18	-0.71
96	Art Powell	8046	1960	1968	0.02	-0.52	104.4%	0.28	-0.24
97	Bill Brooks	8001	1986	1996	-0.51	-1.37	98.4%	-0.61	-1.97
98	Don Hutson	7991	1935	1945	2.24	2.98	125.5%	3.46	6.44
99	Tony Hill	7988	1977	1986	0.77	0.65	104%	0.23	0.88
100	Ozzie Newsome	7980	1978	1990	0.19	-0.26	108%	0.83	0.57
101	Bobby Mitchell	7954	1958	1968	0.8	0.7	107.4%	0.74	1.44
102	Jackie Smith	7918	1963	1977	-0.02	-0.59	106.3%	0.58	-0.02
103	Jimmy Orr	7914	1958	1970	1.2	1.34	102.4%	-0.02	1.32
104	Rob Gronkowski	7861	2010	2018	1.5	1.8	107.9%	0.82	2.62
105	Pierre Garcon	7854	2008	2018	0.25	-0.16	104.2%	0.26	0.10
106	Greg Olsen	7847	2007	2018	-0.16	-0.82	94.5%	-1.19	-2.01
107	Drew Pearson	7822	1973	1983	1.49	1.79	101.8%	-0.1	1.69
108	Bobby Engram	7751	1996	2009	0.19	-0.26	104.3%	0.28	0.02
109	Anthony Carter	7733	1985	1994	0.11	-0.39	100.3%	-0.32	-0.71
110	Chris Chambers	7648	2001	2010	-0.34	-1.1	98.3%	-0.63	-1.73
111	Brian Blades	7620	1988	1998	-0.86	-1.92	96.7%	-0.86	-2.78
112	Nat Moore	7546	1974	1986	1.16	1.28	94.3%	-1.23	0.04
113	Roy Jefferson	7539	1965	1976	0	-0.55	104.2%	0.26	-0.30
114	Gary Garrison	7538	1966	1977	0.51	0.24	107.3%	0.72	0.96
115	Michael Crabtree	7477	2009	2018	0.2	-0.24	93.3%	-1.37	-1.62
116	Dez Bryant	7459	2010	2017	0.76	0.64	99.3%	-0.48	0.16
117	Vernon Davis	7439	2006	2018	-0.08	-0.69	91.3%	-1.68	-2.37
118	DeAndre Hopkins	7437	2013	2018	-0.39	-1.18	98.6%	-0.59	-1.76
119	Jimmy Graham	7436	2010	2018	1.15	1.25	112.4%	1.49	2.74
120	Ed McCaffrey	7422	1991	2003	0.86	0.79	99.5%	-0.44	0.35
121	Bob Hayes	7414	1965	1975	1.33	1.54	97.2%	-0.79	0.75
122	Pete Retzlaff	7412	1956	1966	0.45	0.15	107%	0.68	0.83
123	Wayne Chrebet	7365	1995	2005	-0.02	-0.6	102.5%	0.01	-0.59
124	Otis Taylor	7306	1965	1974	0.96	0.95	89.9%	-1.9	-0.95
125	Boyd Dowler	7270	1959	1971	0.92	0.89	83.8%	-2.81	-1.92
126	Antonio Freeman	7251	1995	2003	0.91	0.88	105.9%	0.51	1.39
127	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	7237	2001	2011	-0.07	-0.66	105.1%	0.4	-0.27
128	Golden Tate	7214	2010	2018	0.35	0	98.3%	-0.62	-0.62
129	Dwayne Bowe	7208	2007	2015	-0.75	-1.74	95.1%	-1.1	-2.84
130	Lionel Taylor	7195	1960	1968	-1.27	-2.56	109.2%	1	-1.56
131	Darrell Jackson	7132	2000	2008	0	-0.55	99.6%	-0.44	-0.99
132	Carl Pickens	7129	1992	2000	-0.12	-0.75	101%	-0.22	-0.98
133	Ken Burrough	7102	1970	1981	-0.68	-1.63	99.8%	-0.41	-2.04
134	Isaac Curtis	7101	1973	1984	0.92	0.89	102.5%	0	0.89
135	Reggie Rucker	7065	1970	1981	0.09	-0.42	110.2%	1.16	0.74
136	John Gilliam	7056	1967	1977	0.62	0.42	106%	0.53	0.95
137	Elroy Hirsch	7029	1946	1957	1.86	2.37	109%	0.98	3.35
138	Emmanuel Sanders	7024	2010	2018	0	-0.56	103.7%	0.19	-0.37
139	Shawn Jefferson	7023	1991	2003	0.07	-0.45	101.9%	-0.09	-0.54
140	Pat Tilley	7005	1976	1986	-0.16	-0.81	102.2%	-0.05	-0.85
141	Jake Reed	6999	1992	2002	0.55	0.31	108.4%	0.88	1.20
142	J.T. Smith	6974	1979	1990	-0.44	-1.25	98.3%	-0.63	-1.88
143	Derrick Alexander	6971	1994	2002	0.43	0.12	104.3%	0.27	0.39
144	Nate Washington	6954	2006	2015	-0.15	-0.79	96.8%	-0.85	-1.63
145	Marshall Faulk	6875	1994	2005	0.93	0.9	102.8%	0.05	0.96
146	Gene Washington	6856	1969	1979	0.45	0.14	107%	0.68	0.82
147	Jeremy Maclin	6835	2009	2017	0.09	-0.42	101.9%	-0.08	-0.50
148	Ahmad Rashad	6831	1972	1982	0.08	-0.43	119.2%	2.51	2.08
149	Charley Hennigan	6823	1960	1966	1.06	1.12	113.8%	1.7	2.82
150	Larry Centers	6797	1991	2003	-0.32	-1.07	105.8%	0.5	-0.57
151	Dwight Clark	6750	1979	1987	1.34	1.55	110.3%	1.18	2.72
152	Frank Sanders	6749	1995	2003	-0.91	-1.99	106%	0.53	-1.46
153	Kellen Winslow	6741	1979	1987	1.16	1.26	121.6%	2.87	4.14
154	Frank Lewis	6724	1971	1983	0.27	-0.14	96.9%	-0.84	-0.98
155	Marty Booker	6703	1999	2009	-0.92	-2.01	105.9%	0.52	-1.49
156	Cris Collinsworth	6698	1981	1988	1.21	1.35	98.9%	-0.54	0.81
157.5	Deion Branch	6644	2002	2012	0.78	0.67	105%	0.38	1.05
157.5	Mel Gray	6644	1971	1982	0.74	0.61	105%	0.38	0.99
159	Willie Gault	6635	1983	1993	0.13	-0.35	85%	-2.63	-2.98
160	Jerricho Cotchery	6623	2004	2015	-0.48	-1.32	94.3%	-1.22	-2.54
161	Al Toon	6605	1985	1992	0.06	-0.46	103.2%	0.11	-0.35
162	Brett Perriman	6589	1988	1997	0.24	-0.18	96.1%	-0.96	-1.15
163	Michael Haynes	6588	1988	1997	0.25	-0.16	105.5%	0.45	0.29
164	Heath Miller	6569	2005	2015	0.74	0.61	97.9%	-0.69	-0.08
165	Doug Baldwin	6563	2011	2018	0.65	0.47	87.9%	-2.19	-1.72
166	Henry Marshall	6545	1976	1987	-0.24	-0.94	100.3%	-0.33	-1.26
167	Dante Lavelli	6488	1946	1956	2.97	4.12	88.6%	-2.08	2.04
168	Ricky Sanders	6477	1986	1995	0.72	0.58	108%	0.83	1.41
169	Del Shofner	6470	1958	1967	0.83	0.76	108.6%	0.91	1.67
170	Mike Quick	6464	1982	1990	-0.41	-1.2	106.5%	0.61	-0.59
171	Quinn Early	6448	1988	1999	-0.08	-0.68	98.2%	-0.65	-1.33
172	Sammy White	6400	1976	1985	0.07	-0.44	122.5%	3.01	2.56
173	Ike Hilliard	6397	1997	2008	-0.17	-0.83	103.6%	0.17	-0.66
174	Carlos Carson	6372	1980	1989	-0.06	-0.65	105.9%	0.51	-0.14
175	Troy Brown	6366	1993	2006	0.31	-0.07	104.1%	0.25	0.18
176	Max McGee	6346	1954	1967	0.4	0.07	91.1%	-1.71	-1.64
177	Stephone Paige	6341	1983	1991	0.17	-0.28	100.2%	-0.35	-0.63
178	Haywood Jeffires	6334	1987	1996	0.4	0.07	116.2%	2.07	2.14
179	Steve Jordan	6307	1982	1994	0.07	-0.45	101.8%	-0.11	-0.56
180	Sean Dawkins	6291	1993	2001	-0.15	-0.8	94.5%	-1.2	-2.00
181	Alfred Jenkins	6267	1975	1983	-0.32	-1.06	100.2%	-0.34	-1.40
182	Darnay Scott	6193	1994	2002	-0.27	-0.98	103%	0.08	-0.90
183	Alshon Jeffery	6181	2012	2018	0.27	-0.13	101.5%	-0.14	-0.27
184	Jeremy Shockey	6143	2002	2011	0.3	-0.09	106%	0.53	0.44
185	Eddie Brown	6134	1985	1991	1.25	1.4	93.7%	-1.32	0.09
186	Steve Watson	6112	1979	1987	-0.08	-0.68	102.4%	-0.01	-0.69
187	Mike Evans	6103	2014	2018	0.06	-0.47	103.2%	0.1	-0.37
188	Ronnie Harmon	6076	1986	1997	-0.02	-0.58	98.7%	-0.57	-1.15
189	Red Phillips	6044	1958	1967	-0.79	-1.8	101.8%	-0.11	-1.91
190	Lenny Moore	6039	1956	1967	1.55	1.89	111.8%	1.4	3.29
191	Santonio Holmes	6030	2006	2014	0.06	-0.47	95.7%	-1.03	-1.49
192	Louis Lipps	6019	1984	1992	-0.46	-1.29	91.1%	-1.71	-3.00
193	Jack Snow	6012	1965	1975	0.76	0.64	104.1%	0.25	0.89
194	Lee Evans	6008	2004	2011	-0.72	-1.69	88.2%	-2.14	-3.84
195	Sonny Randle	5996	1959	1968	-0.37	-1.14	106.6%	0.62	-0.52
196	Brandon Lloyd	5989	2003	2014	-0.32	-1.06	100.2%	-0.34	-1.40
197.5	Bobby Joe Conrad	5902	1959	1969	-0.31	-1.05	107.4%	0.74	-0.30
197.5	Billy Wilson	5902	1951	1960	0.08	-0.43	99.9%	-0.39	-0.82
199	Ben Watson	5885	2004	2018	0.45	0.15	104.8%	0.35	0.51
200	Todd Christensen	5872	1981	1988	-0.05	-0.64	98.6%	-0.58	-1.22

Lee Evans had the most unfortunate situation, at least by these measures, of any player in the top 200 career receiving yards. His teams were 1.69 standard deviations below average in RANY/A and 2.14 standard deviations below average in Pass Ratio, for a total Z-Score grade of -3.84.

Tagged as: Steve Smith

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