Steven Jackson and Running Back Records When Carrying 20+ Times

by Chase Stuart on May 24, 2015

in Data Dump, Rushing, Statgeekery

A quick data dump today. Since 1960, players who record 20+ carries in a game were on the winning side of things 72.7% of the time. Steven Jackson, however, is just 30-31-1 in his 62 games where he has had at least 20 carries. Given that we would “expect” a player to win 45.1 games given 62 games with 20 carries, Jackson’s 30.5 wins falls 14.6 wins shy of expectation. That, perhaps not surprisingly to regular readers, is the worst record relative to expectation among all running backs since 1960.

The table below shows all running backs who had at least 20 games with 20+ carries over the last 55 years, including the postseason. Thurman Thomas is on top of the table because he had 71 games with 20+ carries, and his teams went 63-8 in those games for an incredible 0.887 winning percentage. That gave Thomas 11.4 wins over expectation, the most ever. If you want to sort by a different category (say, win%), you can: the table is fully sortable and searchable.

Rk	Running Back	G	W	L	T	Win %	Win Ov Exp
1	Thurman Thomas	71	63	8	0	0.887	11.4
2	Franco Harris	77	66	10	1	0.864	10.5
3	Terrell Davis	56	49	7	0	0.875	8.3
4	Emmitt Smith	131	103	28	0	0.786	7.7
5	Tony Dorsett	63	53	10	0	0.841	7.2
6	Edgerrin James	97	77	20	0	0.794	6.4
7	Michael Turner	32	29	3	0	0.906	5.7
8	Jim Taylor	31	28	3	0	0.903	5.5
9	Frank Gore	51	42	8	1	0.833	5.4
10	Chuck Foreman	36	31	4	1	0.875	5.3
11	Ottis Anderson	62	50	12	0	0.806	4.9
12	Jim Brown	47	37	6	4	0.83	4.8
13	Jamal Lewis	69	55	14	0	0.797	4.8
14	Sammy Winder	29	25	3	1	0.879	4.4
15	Garrison Hearst	34	29	5	0	0.853	4.3
16	Lawrence McCutcheon	35	29	5	1	0.843	4
17	Wilbert Montgomery	33	28	5	0	0.848	4
18	Rob Carpenter	20	18	1	1	0.925	4
19	Eddie George	84	65	19	0	0.774	3.9
20	DeMarco Murray	25	22	3	0	0.88	3.8
21	Calvin Hill	25	22	3	0	0.88	3.8
22	Antowain Smith	32	27	5	0	0.844	3.7
23	Earnest Byner	28	24	4	0	0.857	3.6
24	Mark van Eeghen	28	24	4	0	0.857	3.6
25	Leroy Kelly	28	24	4	0	0.857	3.6
26	Ahman Green	50	40	10	0	0.8	3.6
27	Jamal Anderson	31	26	5	0	0.839	3.5
28	Curt Warner	42	34	8	0	0.81	3.5
29	Warrick Dunn	40	32	7	1	0.813	3.4
30	Ray Rice	34	28	6	0	0.824	3.3
31	Natrone Means	37	30	7	0	0.811	3.1
32	Joe Cribbs	22	19	3	0	0.864	3
33	Marcus Allen	51	40	11	0	0.784	2.9
34	Larry Brown	38	30	7	1	0.803	2.9
35	Pete Johnson	25	21	4	0	0.84	2.8
36	Ricky Watters	61	47	14	0	0.77	2.6
37	Terry Allen	48	37	10	1	0.781	2.6
38	Larry Csonka	24	20	4	0	0.833	2.5
39	Roger Craig	20	17	3	0	0.85	2.5
40	Deuce McAllister	37	29	8	0	0.784	2.1
41	LeSean McCoy	29	23	6	0	0.793	1.9
42	Marshall Faulk	58	44	14	0	0.759	1.8
43	Lydell Mitchell	39	30	9	0	0.769	1.6
44	Jim Nance	24	18	4	2	0.792	1.5
45	Willie Parker	35	27	8	0	0.771	1.5
46	Neal Anderson	23	18	5	0	0.783	1.3
47	Joe Morris	34	26	8	0	0.765	1.3
48	Barry Foster	30	23	7	0	0.767	1.2
49	Rudi Johnson	37	28	9	0	0.757	1.1
50	Ken Willard	20	15	4	1	0.775	1
51	Duce Staley	24	18	6	0	0.75	0.5
52	Dorsey Levens	24	18	6	0	0.75	0.5
53	Cedric Benson	33	24	8	1	0.742	0.5
54	Brian Westbrook	20	15	5	0	0.75	0.5
55	Jerome Bettis	89	65	24	0	0.73	0.3
56	Marshawn Lynch	52	38	14	0	0.731	0.2
57	Gary Brown	22	16	6	0	0.727	0
58	Lamar Smith	29	21	8	0	0.724	-0.1
59	Chris Johnson	36	26	10	0	0.722	-0.2
60	Larry Johnson	36	26	10	0	0.722	-0.2
61	Christian Okoye	23	16	6	1	0.717	-0.2
62	Delvin Williams	21	15	6	0	0.714	-0.3
63	John Brockington	26	18	7	1	0.712	-0.4
64	Shaun Alexander	68	49	19	0	0.721	-0.5
65	Ron Johnson	25	17	7	1	0.7	-0.7
66	Stephen Davis	48	34	14	0	0.708	-0.9
67	John Riggins	70	50	20	0	0.714	-0.9
68	Adrian Murrell	22	15	7	0	0.682	-1
69	Mike Rozier	22	15	7	0	0.682	-1
70	James Stewart	29	20	9	0	0.69	-1.1
71	Freeman McNeil	38	26	11	1	0.697	-1.1
72	Priest Holmes	43	30	13	0	0.698	-1.3
73	Jamaal Charles	20	13	7	0	0.65	-1.5
74	Rodney Hampton	42	29	13	0	0.69	-1.5
75	Anthony Thomas	27	18	9	0	0.667	-1.6
76	Floyd Little	27	17	8	2	0.667	-1.6
77	Tiki Barber	49	34	15	0	0.694	-1.6
78	Robert Smith	34	23	11	0	0.676	-1.7
79	Errict Rhett	30	20	10	0	0.667	-1.8
80	Ricky Williams	52	36	16	0	0.692	-1.8
81	Thomas Jones	62	43	19	0	0.694	-2.1
82	LaDainian Tomlinson	80	56	24	0	0.7	-2.2
83	Greg Bell	24	15	9	0	0.625	-2.5
84	William Andrews	27	17	10	0	0.63	-2.6
85	Walter Payton	106	74	32	0	0.698	-3.1
86	Mike Pruitt	25	15	10	0	0.6	-3.2
87	Maurice Jones-Drew	36	23	13	0	0.639	-3.2
88	Chris Warren	28	17	11	0	0.607	-3.4
89	Matt Forte	42	27	15	0	0.643	-3.5
90	Arian Foster	41	26	15	0	0.634	-3.8
91	Willis McGahee	47	30	17	0	0.638	-4.2
92	Herschel Walker	31	18	13	0	0.581	-4.5
93	Julius Jones	26	14	12	0	0.538	-4.9
94	George Rogers	43	26	17	0	0.605	-5.3
95	Earl Campbell	54	34	20	0	0.63	-5.3
96	Fred Taylor	68	44	24	0	0.647	-5.5
97	Adrian Peterson	58	36	21	1	0.629	-5.7
98	Corey Dillon	59	37	22	0	0.627	-5.9
99	Billy Sims	32	17	15	0	0.531	-6.3
100	Travis Henry	35	19	16	0	0.543	-6.5
101	Curtis Martin	103	68	35	0	0.66	-6.9
102	Eric Dickerson	87	56	31	0	0.644	-7.3
103	Clinton Portis	63	38	25	0	0.603	-7.8
104	O.J. Simpson	55	30	24	1	0.555	-9.5
105	Barry Sanders	82	50	32	0	0.61	-9.6
106	James Wilder	34	11	23	0	0.324	-13.7
107	Gerald Riggs	43	17	25	1	0.407	-13.8
108	Steven Jackson	62	30	31	1	0.492	-14.6

Here’s a tough trivia question: who has the most games with 20+ carries in losses? As it turns out, the answer is Curtis Martin.

James Wilder somehow won less than one-third of his games when he had 20+ carries. That’s almost hard to fathom. In 1985 and 1986, Tampa Bay went 3-13 in games where Wilder had 20+ carries. Of course, Leeman Bennett’s Bucs went 4-28 over that period.

In 1984 and 1985, there was a stretch where the Atlanta Falcons somehow went 3-17 over 20 consecutive games when Gerald Riggs recorded 20+ carries.

Among players with 50+ games with 20+ carries, Jackson is, of course, the only player to win fewer than half of his games. Only other other player — O.J. Simpson — won fewer than 60% of his games.

Rob Carpenter never lost a game when he had more than 20 carries, going an incredible 17-0-1 with the Giants and Oilers. That covered a span of 8 years beginning in ’77, althouhg most of those games came with the Giants in ’81, ’83, ‘or ’84. From ’81 to ’84, Carptender averaged just 3.5 YPC, but was a key cog of the New York offense.

What stands out to you?

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