This week at the Washington Post, a look at how the Jets built an offense the “wrong” way.

Fitzpatrick is the team’s leading passer, Ivory the leading rusher, and Decker and Marshall the two leading receivers.

It’s very rare for a team’s top passer, top running back, and top two weapons in the passing game to all come from other teams. In fact, the 2015 Jets will become just the second team in the last 10 years to meet those criteria, and just the 12th since 1970. The question now is how well this core can sustain this high level of play. As you can see from the table below, which illustrates the first 11 teams that featured out-of-house core fours, success isn’t that common for teams of this type.

You can read the full article here.

Last year, I asked you about rushing yards with multiple franchises. In light of the trade of Brandon Marshall to the Jets, I thought it would be fun to look at the same question but for receiving yards.

First, I stumbled upon a bit of trivia that caught me by surprise. Only one player has recorded over 5,000 receiving yards with two teams. Some hints: [continue reading…]

While reading the always excellent Football Outsiders Almanac, I was reminded that Brandon Marshall has had 1,000-yard seasons playing with Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, and Matt Moore (and, of course, Cutler again in Chicago). That’s pretty impressive for a player in his twenties, although regular readers know that I’m a big fan of Marshall.

Two other active players have gained 1,000 yards with four different quarterbacks. For the remainder of this post, I’ll be defining a receiver’s “quarterback” as the quarterback on his team each season who threw for the most passing yards. One of them is pretty obvious: the annually great Tony Gonzalez hit the 1,000-yard mark with Elvis Grbac, Trent Green, Damon Huard, and Tyler Thigpen (but not Matt Ryan). The third player might be a bit more difficult to guess:
[continue reading…]

On Tuesday, I discussed the RSP Football Writers Project, a 32-team start-up draft of every player in the NFL.  I was assigned the 32nd pick, which does bring with it one advantage.  In order to balance the values assigned with the random draft order, the selection picks for the third round is “reversed”, a common fantasy football technique known as 3rd Round Reversal.  So while I picked last in round one after 18 quarterbacks had been drafted, I got to pick first in rounds two and three.

As you now know, I drafted Josh Freeman and Julio Jones with picks 32 and 33.  At 65, there were several ways I could go.

• I think it’s hard to overestimate the value of a great passing game, so adding a receiver or tight end isan attractive option. That’s doubly true when Brandon Marshall and Aaron Hernandez were still available. Marshall was my highest-ranked receiver from last year and is relatively young; he turns 29 this month. Hernandez is 23 and is an incredible asset in the passing game.
• If you think of the big positions in the NFL as quarterback, pass rusher, and left tackle, then you probably want to fill those slots as quickly as possible. At left tackle, Duane Brown, Joe Thomas, Matt Kalil, and Nate Solder are gone. Michael Roos is a solid pick, but at 31 in October, does he fit my model of fielding a young team? Ryan Clady was a player I might have taken, but he was selected just a few picks before I was up. I didn’t see an elite player available, so I crossed this off the list (a few picks later, Matt Waldman selected Russell Okung.)
• On the pass-rusher front, Von Miller, Aldon Smith, Clay Matthews, Cameron Wake, Jason Pierre-Paul, DeMarcus Ware, Charles Johnson are all gone, as are 3-4 defensive ends J.J. Watt, Calais Campbell, Muhammad Wilkerson and Justin Smith. While there were some attractive options out there, my hope is one of them will be around when I pick again. The most interesting option was Mario Williams, a player I really wanted to take, but his struggles in 2012 were too significant to overlook.

[continue reading…]

Reggie Wayne led the NFL in targets last year, but that’s a little misleading since the Colts ranked 6th in pass attempts. As a percentage of team targets, Wayne ranked second in the league, but he was a distant number two to Brandon Marshall, who saw two out of every five Bears passes in 2013.

But that doesn’t make him the best receiver. It was easier for Marshall to receive a high number of targets because the rest of the Chicago supporting cast was weak, so Jay Cutler consistently looked Marshall’s way. Chicago ranked 25th last year in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, so essentially we have a player on a bad passing offense receiving a ton of targets. It’s not all that obvious how you compare a player like that to Roddy White, who deserves credit for being in a great passing offense but loses targets because of the presence of Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez (of course, without them, would Matt Ryan start looking like Jay Cutler?)

I identified the leader in targets for each team, and then calculated the percentage of team targets each leading receiver had in 2012. The table below lists that percentage on the Y-Axis; the X-Axis represents the number of ANY/A that player’s team averaged. Someone like Marshall (represented by the first four letters of his last name and the first two letters of his first name, MarsBr) will therefore be high and to the left, while Randall Cobb is low and to the right:

[continue reading…]

Three weeks ago, I set forth the argument that perhaps Calvin Johnson was not even the most productive receiver in his own division. While Megatron racked up the numbers, I argued that you have to account for the situation. The relevant situation here is that the Lions ran an incredible 1,160 plays compared to just 999 for the Bears, and Detroit attempted 740 passes while Chicago threw only 485 times.

When one team throws 255 more passes than the other, I don’t think it’s appropriate to compare the receivers based on their raw receiving yards. One thing we could look at is yards per team attempt. The table below lists the number of team attempts for each wide receiver, his raw receiving statistics, and also his yards per attempt. The table is sorted by yards per team passing attempt. And while it is not relevant when discussing Marshall and Megatron, I have also included a Pro-rated Yards per Attempt column, which pro-rates the number of team attempts for the number of games played by the receiver (this helps Percy Harvin, of course).

As it turns out, Calvin Johnson was neither the best Johnson nor the best receiver in his division, at least as measured by this metric. I’m not convinced or even arguing that yards/attempt is the best way to rank receivers, but I do think the statistic represents an improvement on just receiving yards. Since receiving yards are so highly correlated with attempts, some adjustment needs to be made, and I plan on providing more analysis on how to grade wide receivers this off-season.
[continue reading…]

I’ve noted a few times this year that Calvin Johnson, in his pursuit of Jerry Rice’s single-season receiving record, has quite an advantage on his side. The Lions have attempted more passes through 13 games of any team ever, and seem likely to break the pass attempts record.

Obviously it’s easier to gain more receiving yards when your team is throwing the ball nearly every play. That’s why when I came up with my Greatest WR Ever series, I looked at receiver performance per pass attempt.

I don’t have time for a nuanced analysis of wide receiver, but let’s just look at a simple statistic: receiving yards per team pass attempt. That’s what the table below shows, along with each player’s rank in receiving yards (the far left column). Brandon Marshall has 1,342 receiving yards while the Bears have only attempted 444 passes this year (including sacks). That means he’s averaging more than three yards per team pass attempt, which is incredible. Of course, it also speaks to the lack of other weapons in Chicago.

Ryds Rk	Player	Tm	Rec	Ryds	TD	TMATT	Yds/Att	Y/A Rk
2	Brandon Marshall	CHI	101	1342	9	444	3.02	1
7	Vincent Jackson	TAM	56	1145	8	442	2.59	2
4	Andre Johnson	HOU	82	1209	3	471	2.57	3
1	Calvin Johnson	DET	96	1546	5	618	2.5	4
6	A.J. Green	CIN	79	1151	10	478	2.41	5
5	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	74	1197	8	503	2.38	6
12	Steve Smith	CAR	60	999	2	425	2.35	7
9	Wes Welker	NWE	95	1116	4	519	2.15	8
3	Reggie Wayne	IND	94	1220	4	569	2.14	9
8	Roddy White	ATL	77	1140	5	535	2.13	10
11	Victor Cruz	NYG	76	1004	9	479	2.1	11
14	Brian Hartline	MIA	62	925	1	442	2.09	12
28	Michael Crabtree	SFO	66	761	5	383	1.99	13
13	Julio Jones	ATL	63	997	7	535	1.86	14
22	Dwayne Bowe	KAN	59	801	3	436	1.84	15
10	Dez Bryant	DAL	75	1028	9	567	1.81	16
45	Sidney Rice	SEA	45	658	7	365	1.8	17
26	Steve Johnson	BUF	61	776	5	432	1.8	18
24	Davone Bess	MIA	61	778	1	442	1.76	19
19	Anquan Boldin	BAL	58	828	4	482	1.72	20
35	Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	52	728	2	435	1.67	21
31	Mike Williams	TAM	46	736	7	442	1.67	22
20	Cecil Shorts	JAX	43	824	7	500	1.65	23
39	Greg Olsen	CAR	54	691	5	425	1.63	24
25	Randall Cobb	GNB	71	777	7	484	1.61	25
15	Marques Colston	NOR	65	889	8	559	1.59	26
42	Percy Harvin	MIN	62	677	3	429	1.58	27
23	Eric Decker	DEN	64	790	8	503	1.57	28
29	Torrey Smith	BAL	43	753	7	482	1.56	29
18	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	81	831	7	535	1.55	30
16	Jason Witten	DAL	92	880	1	567	1.55	31
27	Malcom Floyd	SDG	54	775	5	503	1.54	32
17	Lance Moore	NOR	53	848	4	559	1.52	33
32	Josh Gordon	CLE	42	732	5	487	1.5	34
21	Miles Austin	DAL	55	819	5	567	1.44	35
30	Rob Gronkowski	NWE	53	748	10	519	1.44	36
34	Mike Wallace	PIT	59	728	8	509	1.43	37
47	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	50	652	3	479	1.36	38
44	Jordy Nelson	GNB	46	658	6	484	1.36	39
59	Brandon LaFell	CAR	34	577	4	425	1.36	40
72	Golden Tate	SEA	37	492	7	365	1.35	41
40	Heath Miller	PIT	61	679	7	509	1.33	42
52	Jermaine Gresham	CIN	55	636	5	478	1.33	43
70	Vernon Davis	SFO	38	506	5	383	1.32	44
53	Owen Daniels	HOU	52	622	6	471	1.32	45
49	Nate Washington	TEN	39	648	4	499	1.3	46
33	Brandon Myers	OAK	70	728	4	561	1.3	47
38	DeSean Jackson	PHI	45	700	2	541	1.29	48
36	Jimmy Graham	NOR	64	710	8	559	1.27	49
58	Chris Givens	STL	36	584	3	464	1.26	50