Jim Brown

Jim Brown, Bobby Boyd, and Retiring Early

by Chase Stuart on April 9, 2016

in Data Dump, Trivia

The GOAT.

Jim Brown is the standard bearer for athletes who retired too young, and for very good reason. Brown led the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns in his final season in 1965, all while averaging 5.3 yards per run and 9.6 yards per reception. With D’Brickashaw Ferguson choosing to retire “early” yesterday, on the heels of Calvin Johnson doing the same thing, I decided to run a quick query on the players who were best in the final season of their career.

The table below shows all players who had at least 10 points of Approximate Value in the final season of their career (Megatron had 10 points of AV in 2015; Ferguson had 9) and whose last season came in 2014 or earlier. ^[1]Note that Patrick Willis had just 3 points of AV in his final year in the NFL. As it turns out, Brown ranks tied for first on this list, next to Colts defensive back Bobby Boyd.

Here’s how to read the table below. Boyd’s last season came in 1968 with Baltimore. Playing left cornerback, he accumulated 21 points of AV that year at the age of 31. He received a number of awards that season: he was 1st-team All-Conference (that’s what the + sign means) according to the Sporting News, and a 1st-team All-Pro choice by the AP, Pro Football Writers, NY Daily News, Pro Football Weekly, and the UPI. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Note that Patrick Willis had just 3 points of AV in his final year in the NFL.

Tagged as: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Jim Brown, Retirement

{ 7 comments }

Adrian Peterson’s 2012 Season Lacked Some Juice

by Chase Stuart on February 14, 2014

in Rushing, Statgeekery, Statistics

When I went on the Advanced NFL Stats Podcast in late December, I discussed my use of Z-scores to measure the Seattle pass defense. Host Dave Collins asked me if I was planning on using Z-scores to measure other things, like say, Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season. I told him that would be an interesting idea to look at in the off-season.

Well, it’s the off-season. So here’s what I did.

1) For every season since 1932, I recorded the number of rushing yards for the leading rusher for each team in each league. So for the Minnesota Vikings in 2012, this was 2,097.

2) Next, I calculated the average number of rushing yards of the top rusher of each other team in the NFL. In 2012, the leading rusher on the other 31 teams averaged 974 yards.

3) Then, I calculated the standard deviation of the leading rushers for all teams in the NFL. In 2012, that was 386 yards.

4) Finally, I calculated the Z-score. This is simply the difference between the player’s average and the league average (for Peterson, that’s 1,123), divided by the standard deviation. Peterson’s Z-score was 2.91, good enough for 15th best since 1932. The table below shows the top 250 seasons using this method from 1932 to 2013; it’s fully searchable and sortable, and you can change the number of entries shown by using the dropdown box on the left. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adrian Peterson, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson, Vikings, Walter Payton

{ 7 comments }

Checkdowns: Career rushing stats in wins and losses

by Chase Stuart on December 30, 2012

in History, Rushing, Statistics

Trent Richardson thinks this guy was an average running back in losses.

Yesterday, I noted that Adrian Peterson is averaging nearly two more yards per rush in losses than wins. He’s also averaging a nearly identical number of rushing yards per game in wins and losses.

As you’re about to see, that’s pretty rare. We all know that wins are correlated with rushing yards, so it should come as no surprise that running backs generally gain more rushing yards in wins than in losses.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all players with at least 3,000 rushing yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each player:

— His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
— All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
— His number of career wins, and his career rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry, and rushing yards per game in wins
— His number of career losses, and his career rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry, and rushing yards per game in losses

The table is sorted by rushing yards per game in wins. Again, for players like Jim Brown or Peterson, they are included but only their stats from 1960 to 2011 are shown. The table only shows the top 50 players, but the search feature works for the entire table, which includes 281 players. In addition, you can click on the drop arrow and change the number of rows shown.

As always, the table is fully sortable. If you click twice on the far right column, you see the career leaders in rushing yards per game in losses. You probably aren’t surprised to see Barry Sanders at the top, but the presence of the running back formerly known as Dom Davis up there is a bit surprising. Steven Jackson is one of the few players who have averaged over 70 rushing yards per game in losses, which jives with the sixth post in Football Perspective history. In addition, Jackson (at least through 2011) and LaDainian Tomlinson form an interesting example of Simpson’s Paradox: Jackson has a higher career rushing yards per game average in both wins (93.9 to 89.9) and losses (71.1 to 63.2), while Tomlinson has the higher career average overall (78.6 to 78.3).

entries per page

Search:

Rk	Player	Years	Teams	Pos	W	Rsh_W	Yd_W	YPC_W	Yd/G_W	L	Rsh_L	Yd_L	YPC_L	Yd/G_L
1	Jim Brown	1960--1965	cle	FB	55	1176	6590	5.6	119.8	25	384	1706	4.44	68.2
2	Terrell Davis	1995--2001	den	RB	58	1415	6867	4.85	118.4	28	444	1880	4.23	67.1
3	Barry Sanders	1989--1998	det	RB	75	1670	8526	5.11	113.7	84	1483	7129	4.81	84.9
4	Eric Dickerson	1983--1993	ram-clt-rai-atl	RB	74	1776	8411	4.74	113.7	78	1368	5572	4.07	71.4
5	O.J. Simpson	1969--1979	buf-sfo	RB	43	950	4818	5.07	112	92	1442	6351	4.4	69
6	Earl Campbell	1978--1985	oti-nor	RB	50	1209	5409	4.47	108.2	70	1113	4418	3.97	63.1
7	Adrian Peterson	2007--2011	min	RB	38	792	4002	5.05	105.3	38	685	3018	4.41	79.4
8	Chris Johnson	2008--2011	oti	RB	36	772	3776	4.89	104.9	28	426	1941	4.56	69.3
9	Clinton Portis	2002--2010	den-was	RB	58	1281	6051	4.72	104.3	59	1019	4086	4.01	69.3
10	Arian Foster	2009--2011	htx	RB	20	428	2077	4.85	103.9	16	282	1305	4.63	81.6
11	Emmitt Smith	1990--2004	dal-crd	RB	135	3036	13198	4.35	97.8	108	1722	6743	3.92	62.4
12	Jamal Lewis	2000--2009	rav-cle	RB	74	1653	7193	4.35	97.2	63	1019	3840	3.77	61
13	Walter Payton	1975--1987	chi	RB	113	2460	10975	4.46	97.1	86	1558	6383	4.1	74.2
14	Larry Johnson	2003--2011	kan-cin-was-mia	RB	40	813	3842	4.73	96.1	43	627	2413	3.85	56.1
15	Edgerrin James	1999--2009	clt-crd-sea	RB	99	2251	9469	4.21	95.6	62	995	3629	3.65	58.5
16	Billy Sims	1980--1984	det	RB	30	603	2861	4.74	95.4	32	554	2378	4.29	74.3
17	Curtis Martin	1995--2005	nwe-nyj	RB	96	2235	9134	4.09	95.1	82	1465	5762	3.93	70.3
18	Frank Gore	2005--2011	sfo	RB	47	939	4422	4.71	94.1	55	743	3366	4.53	61.2
19	Jamaal Charles	2008--2011	kan	RB	16	218	1504	6.9	94	34	290	1605	5.53	47.2
20	Steven Jackson	2004--2011	ram	RB	37	769	3473	4.52	93.9	80	1388	5688	4.1	71.1
21	Shaun Alexander	2000--2008	sea-was	RB	73	1506	6607	4.39	90.5	59	850	3410	4.01	57.8
22	LaDainian Tomlinson	2001--2011	sdg-nyj	RB	104	2048	9346	4.56	89.9	76	1257	4806	3.82	63.2
23	Corey Dillon	1997--2006	cin-nwe	RB	72	1391	6460	4.64	89.7	86	1347	5289	3.93	61.5
24	Rudi Johnson	2001--2008	cin-det	RB	41	901	3672	4.08	89.6	52	629	2363	3.76	45.4
25	Eddie George	1996--2004	oti-dal	RB	90	2094	7863	3.76	87.4	60	977	3354	3.43	55.9
26	Wilbert Montgomery	1977--1985	phi-det	RB	55	1016	4766	4.69	86.7	54	652	2513	3.85	46.5
27	Fred Taylor	1998--2010	jax-nwe	RB	89	1588	7674	4.83	86.2	72	1075	4634	4.31	64.4
28	Jamal Anderson	1994--2001	atl	RB	37	767	3189	4.16	86.2	47	632	2423	3.83	51.6
29	Gale Sayers	1965--1971	chi	RB	29	426	2492	5.85	85.9	36	510	2122	4.16	58.9
30	Barry Foster	1990--1994	pit	RB	35	704	2997	4.26	85.6	23	275	1230	4.47	53.5
31	Curt Warner	1983--1990	sea-ram	RB	55	1133	4704	4.15	85.5	48	636	2389	3.76	49.8
32	Matt Forte	2008--2011	chi	RB	35	661	2985	4.52	85.3	27	395	1398	3.54	51.8
33	Cookie Gilchrist	1962--1967	buf-den-mia	FB	34	625	2871	4.59	84.4	31	372	1381	3.71	44.5
34	William Andrews	1979--1986	atl	RB	43	749	3609	4.82	83.9	42	586	2439	4.16	58.1
35	Marshall Faulk	1994--2005	clt-ram	RB	99	1774	8307	4.68	83.9	89	1227	4574	3.73	51.4
36	John Henry Johnson	1960--1966	pit-oti	FB-HB	32	589	2682	4.55	83.8	38	435	1718	3.95	45.2
37	Tony Dorsett	1977--1988	dal-den	RB	121	2237	10137	4.53	83.8	68	1001	3985	3.98	58.6
38	Jerome Bettis	1993--2005	ram-pit	RB	111	2333	9274	3.98	83.5	93	1345	5062	3.76	54.4
39	Priest Holmes	1997--2007	rav-kan	RB	61	1093	5077	4.65	83.2	49	729	3316	4.55	67.7
40	Ricky Watters	1992--2001	sfo-phi-sea	RB	91	1823	7552	4.14	83	63	963	3720	3.86	59
41	Jim Nance	1965--1973	nwe-nyj	RB	30	571	2455	4.3	81.8	62	680	2585	3.8	41.7
42	Robert Smith	1993--2000	min	RB	63	1039	5146	4.95	81.7	41	517	2262	4.38	55.2
43	George Rogers	1981--1987	nor-was	RB	53	1009	4326	4.29	81.6	45	772	3128	4.05	69.5
44	Jim Taylor	1960--1967	gnb-nor	FB	81	1468	6576	4.48	81.2	31	401	1582	3.95	51
45	Travis Henry	2001--2007	buf-oti-den	RB	36	672	2906	4.32	80.7	52	816	3180	3.9	61.2
46	Willie Parker	2004--2009	pit	RB	55	977	4436	4.54	80.7	27	403	1413	3.51	52.3
47	Ray Rice	2008--2011	rav	RB	45	792	3627	4.58	80.6	22	274	1194	4.36	54.3
48	Maurice Jones-Drew	2006--2011	jax	RB	45	776	3616	4.66	80.4	50	722	3286	4.55	65.7
49	Deuce McAllister	2001--2008	nor	RB	50	913	4017	4.4	80.3	47	543	2240	4.13	47.7
50	Thurman Thomas	1988--2000	buf-mia	RB	130	2373	10378	4.37	79.8	71	843	3138	3.72	44.2

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adrian Peterson, Jim Brown, Simpson’s Paradox, Steven Jackson, Terrell Davis

{ 4 comments }

Career Rushing Yards over 50 yards in each game

by Chase Stuart on October 10, 2012

in History, Rushing, Statistics

www.notacompiler.com.

Career statistics can be very misleading, since a player can hang around for a bunch of meaningless years but really pad his totals. Six years ago, Doug came up with a system that only counted the receiving yards a player recorded after his first 1,000 receiving yards each season.

I’m going to do something similar for running backs, but instead will focus on individual game performances. I have game logs for every running back (post-season included) for every game since 1960. What I did was zero out all rushing yards in games where a player had 50 or fewer rushing yards; in the remaining games, I only gave those runners credit for the rushing yards they gained after their first 50 rushing yards. The “RYov50” column shows the running back’s career rushing yards after removing the first 50 rushing yards he had in every game; the next column shows each player’s career rushing yards (since 1960, including post-season), and the first “Perc%” column shows the ratio of the “RYov50” column to the career rushing yards. A higher percentage means the player spent most of his time as the lead back for his team, while a lower percentage indicates that the player spent significant time in a committee and/or stuck around for several years past his prime. Obviously for still active players, the percentage column could be misleading as they may not have entered the decline portion of their careers just yet.

The #50YG column shows how many games the player had over 50 rushing yards, and the next column shows what percentage of games the running back gained over 50 yards. For players like Jim Brown, this study only includes his seasons starting in 1960, and for active players, 2012 data is *not* included:
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, Running backs, Terrell Davis

{ 11 comments }

The best fantasy football players since 1950

by Chase Stuart on August 24, 2012

in Fantasy, History, Statistics

Tomlinson pushed many teams to fantasy titles.

Bill Simmons wrote about LaDainian Tomlinson last month and called him the best fantasy football player of all-time. “Greatest ever” debates are always subjective, but at least when it comes to fantasy football, we can get pretty close to declaring a definitive answer. Joe Bryant’s landmark “Value Base Drafting” system explained that the “value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position.” Bryant came up with the concept of calculating a ‘VBD’ number for each player to measure their value.

A player’s VBD is easy to calculate. Each player’s VBD score is the difference between the amount of fantasy points he scored and the fantasy points scored by the worst starter (at his position) in your fantasy league. A player who scores fewer fantasy points than the worst starter has a VBD of 0. There is no standard scoring system for fantasy leagues, so a player’s fantasy points total will depend on the specific league’s scoring rules. ^[1]I’ve decided to use a blend of the most common scoring options: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 5 points per passing touchdown, -2 points per interception, 6 points for rushing/receiving … Continue reading And, of course, his VBD score will change depending on the number of starters at each position in the league. ^[2]Again, I’m using a blend here, but for baseline purposes I’m using QB12, RB24, WR32 and TE12, since the standard 12-team league starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs and 1 TE.

That said, once you pick a scoring system and a set of rules, it’s easy to calculate career VBD scores for every player since 1950 ^[3]I’ve pro-rated production for those players who were part of seasons when the NFL did not have a 16-game schedule; I also changed the baseline numbers depending on the number of teams in the … Continue reading. Let’s start with the quarterbacks:

Search:

Player	Years	POS	Teams	VBD	OVR RK	POS RK
Peyton Manning	1998--2010	QB	clt	1071	9	1
Brett Favre	1992--2010	QB	atl-gnb-nyj-min	1061	10	2
Dan Marino	1983--1999	QB	mia	988	14	3
Fran Tarkenton	1961--1978	QB	min-nyg	921	15	4
Steve Young	1985--1999	QB	tam-sfo	774	24	5
Joe Montana	1979--1994	QB	sfo-kan	727	33	6
Randall Cunningham	1985--2001	QB	phi-min-dal-rav	723	35	7
Tom Brady	2000--2011	QB	nwe	720	36	8
Drew Brees	2001--2011	QB	sdg-nor	688	38	9
John Elway	1983--1998	QB	den	660	40	10
Roger Staubach	1969--1979	QB	dal	630	44	11
Johnny Unitas	1956--1973	QB	clt-sdg	625	47	12
Warren Moon	1984--2000	QB	oti-min-sea-kan	592	57	13
Ken Anderson	1971--1986	QB	cin	539	74	14
Sonny Jurgensen	1957--1974	QB	phi-was	528	77	15
Dan Fouts	1973--1987	QB	sdg	526	78	16
Daunte Culpepper	1999--2009	QB	min-mia-rai-det	515	80	17
Aaron Rodgers	2005--2011	QB	gnb	507	83	18
Tobin Rote	1950--1964	QB	gnb-det-sdg-den	494	88	19
Roman Gabriel	1962--1977	QB	ram-phi	404	130	20
Rich Gannon	1988--2004	QB	min-was-kan-rai	396	135	21
Kurt Warner	1998--2009	QB	ram-nyg-crd	396	136	22
Bobby Layne	1950--1962	QB	chi-nyy-det-pit	385	140	23
Y.A. Tittle	1950--1964	QB	bcl-sfo-nyg	384	141	24
Daryle Lamonica	1963--1973	QB	buf-rai	368	153	25

[continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	I’ve decided to use a blend of the most common scoring options: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 5 points per passing touchdown, -2 points per interception, 6 points for rushing/receiving touchdowns, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 0.5 points per reception.
↑2	Again, I’m using a blend here, but for baseline purposes I’m using QB12, RB24, WR32 and TE12, since the standard 12-team league starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs and 1 TE.
↑3	I’ve pro-rated production for those players who were part of seasons when the NFL did not have a 16-game schedule; I also changed the baseline numbers depending on the number of teams in the league, as a baseline of QB12 doesn’t make sense for 1950, when there were only 12 teams.

Tagged as: Don Maynard, Emmitt Smith, Jerry Rice, Jim Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes

{ 15 comments }

Franchise leaders — rushing stats

by Chase Stuart on July 5, 2012

in Rushing

Yesterday, we took a look at the franchise leaders in various passing categories. Let’s do the same for running backs today. The first list shows the leaders in career rushing yards for each franchise; the last column shows the last year that running back played for that franchise:

Team	Yards	Running Back	Last Yr
STL	9093	Steven Jackson	–
SFO	7625	Frank Gore	–
CAR	5047	DeAngelo Williams	–
SDG	12490	LaDainian Tomlinson	2009
GNB	8322	Ahman Green	2009
JAX	11271	Fred Taylor	2008
NOR	6096	Deuce McAllister	2008
SEA	9429	Shaun Alexander	2007
KAN	6070	Priest Holmes	2007
NYG	10449	Tiki Barber	2006
BAL	7801	Jamal Lewis	2006
NYJ	10302	Curtis Martin	2005
IND	9226	Edgerrin James	2005
HOU	3195	Domanick Williams	2005
TEN	10009	Eddie George	2003
CIN	8061	Corey Dillon	2003
DAL	17162	Emmitt Smith	2002
DEN	7607	Terrell Davis	2001
MIN	6818	Robert Smith	2000
BUF	11938	Thurman Thomas	1999
DET	15269	Barry Sanders	1998
OAK	8545	Marcus Allen	1992
TAM	5957	James Wilder	1989
ATL	6631	Gerald Riggs	1988
CHI	16726	Walter Payton	1987
ARI	7999	Ottis Anderson	1986
WAS	7472	John Riggins	1985
PHI	6538	Wilbert Montgomery	1984
PIT	11950	Franco Harris	1983
NWE	5453	Sam Cunningham	1982
MIA	6737	Larry Csonka	1979
CLE	12312	Jim Brown	1965

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adrian Peterson, James Wilder, Jim Brown, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, O.J. Simpson, Trent Richardson, Walter Payton, Wilbert Montgomery

{ 3 comments }