The 1968 Cardinals and Outlier Teams

by Chase Stuart on July 23, 2016

in Statgeekery

Hart had a great career, but was still developing in ’68

In 1968, the St. Louis Cardinals did not have a very good passing offense. The Cardinals averaged 3.9 ANY/A, good enough for 11th place in a 17-team league where the league average was 4.5. The main issue? St. Louis finished dead last with an anemic 44% completion rate. That was mostly due to the second-year starter, 24-year-old Jim Hart. His 44.3% completion rate remains the lowest by any Cardinals quarterback in history with a minimum of 300 pass attempts, and no quarterback with even 160 pass attempts for the Cardinals has dipped below 45% since Hart in ’68. The defense was also below-average against the pass: the Cardinals allowed 6.2 ANY/A, 5th worst in the NFL.

Teams that are below-average at passing and stopping the pass are usually not very good. In the Super Bowl era, each additional yard of ANY/A (on either offense or defense) relative to league average increases a team’s winning percentage by about nine percent. The Cardinals, at -0.5 Relative ANY/A on offense and -1.7 RANY/A on defense, would therefore be expected to win about 30% of their games. Instead, the Cards won 68% of games, going 9-4-1.

The table below shows the 100 teams of the Super Bowl era that have most exceeded expectations based on Offensive and Defensive RANY/A. In general, using ANY/A and RANY/A will get you most of the way there with a team’s record, but not for these teams. The Cardinals had an Off RANY/A of -0.52, a Def RANY/A of -1.72, and therefore, an expected winning percentage of 0.296. By having an actual winning percentage of 0.679, the Cardinals exceeded expectations by 6.1 wins per 16 games.

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Rk	Team	Year	Off RANY/A	Def RANY/A	Exp Win %	Win %	Diff
1	St. Louis Cardinals	1968	-0.52	-1.72	0.296	0.679	6.1
2	Buffalo Bills	1973	-2.05	-0.43	0.276	0.643	5.9
3	Chicago Bears	1968	-1.91	-2.03	0.141	0.500	5.7
4	Philadelphia Eagles	1966	-1.41	-0.37	0.340	0.643	4.8
5	Cleveland Browns	1973	-1.98	-0.56	0.271	0.571	4.8
6	New York Giants	1986	0.03	0.79	0.578	0.875	4.8
7	Los Angeles Raiders	1982	0.35	0.65	0.593	0.889	4.7
8	Chicago Bears	2001	-0.36	0.57	0.522	0.813	4.7
9	Tennessee Titans	1999	0.91	-0.54	0.534	0.813	4.5
10	Miami Dolphins	1981	-0.14	-0.45	0.447	0.719	4.3
11	Atlanta Falcons	2004	-1.16	0.23	0.419	0.688	4.3
12	Indianapolis Colts	2012	-0.29	-0.61	0.420	0.688	4.3
13	Houston Oilers	1967	-1.97	0.98	0.414	0.679	4.2
14	Los Angeles Raiders	1985	-0.37	0.22	0.489	0.750	4.2
15	Cleveland Browns	1972	-0.65	0.17	0.458	0.714	4.1
16	Dallas Cowboys	1972	-0.19	-0.26	0.460	0.714	4.1
17	Denver Broncos	1984	-0.04	0.72	0.565	0.813	4.0
18	Kansas City Chiefs	1997	0.25	0.50	0.571	0.813	3.9
19	Chicago Bears	1987	-0.47	0.37	0.493	0.733	3.8
20	Pittsburgh Steelers	2004	0.80	1.33	0.697	0.938	3.8

The obvious question to ask, then, is why? Why were these Cardinals so successful despite struggling to pass and stop the pass? The Cards were good in one-score games — 4-0-1 — but St. Louis still had a points differential of +2.6 points per game. This wasn’t just a bad team that got lucky. There are a few reasons.

The Cardinals were 4th in rushing yards, 4th in rushing first downs, 5th in yards per carry, and tied for 1st in rushing touchdowns. Fullback Willis Crenshaw led the way, but the Cardinals also benefited from TE Jackie Smith (12/163) and wide receiver Dave Williams (3/47) gaining 210 yards on just 15 carries. St. Louis had a great offensive line with Bob Reynolds, Irv Goode, Bob DeMarco, Ken Gray, and Ernie McMillan all making the Pro Bowl in either ’67 or ’68.

On defense, St. Louis ranked between 4th and 6th in rushing yards, yards per carry, rushing touchdowns, and rushing first downs.

The Cardinals also had great special teams. Chuck Latourette led the NFL in both punt return yards and kickoff return yards, while also leading the NFL in punt return average and ranking second in kickoff return average. Latourette added 135 yards of value as a punt returner and 251 yards of value as a kickoff returner.

Opposing kickers against St. Louis hit just 15 of 33 attempts; that 45.5% rate was ten percent below the league average. Meanwhile, Jim Bakken made 15 of 24 attempts.

Passing is more than half of the game, but the running game and special teams can tilt things in a close game. The Cardinals went 9-4-1 in ’68, but the script flipped the following year: St. Louis went 4-9-1.

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