The 2019 NFL Draft, Value By Position: The Big Bodies Are On Defense

by Chase Stuart on April 29, 2019

in Draft

The NFL Draft is a good way to measure how the league values particular positions. Last year, it seemed as though the running game was back in vogue: after quarterback, running back was perhaps the most highly valued position in the 2018 Draft, and a lot of draft capital was used on non-pass rushing linebackers.

Which positions did NFL teams focus on in the 2019 NFL Draft? We can use the Football Perspective Draft Value Chart to answer that question pretty easily for the first 224 picks (all picks after that have been excluded, since they have a draft value of zero). This was a draft for interior defensive linemen and edge rushers, but even more notable was the absence of draft capital spent on interior offensive linemen.

Consider that 3 out of every 22 players on a football field, at all times, is a guard or center. All else being equal, you would expect 14% of all draft picks and all draft capital to be spent on interior offensive linemen. That means 1 out of every 7.3 draft picks should be an offensive guard or center, but in the first 73 draft picks, there were just 5 interior offensive linemen selected. Just 8% of the first 100 picks were guards or centers, and overall, only 8.4% of all draft capital was spent on guards and centers. Here’s the full list of draftees.

Here is a look at the Draft Value, based on my chart, spent at each position in the 2019 Draft. (Note that I split front seven players into interior defensive lineman (labeled as DI), edge rushers, and linebackers; there is going to be some overlap for certain players, but I did the best I could to pick one label for each player.) The center position was by far the most ignored position, but guard — given that there are twice as many guards on each play as centers — didn’t fare much better:

While that chart is a helpful starting point, I think it makes more sense to analyze things based on how many players at each position are on the field on a given snap. This involves some estimating, of course, but here are the rough numbers I used: 1.0 QBs, 1.2 RBs, 2.5 WRs, 1.3 TEs, 2.0 OTs, 2.0 Gs, and 1.0 C on offense. For defense, I used 2.0 Edge players, 2.4 DI (Defensive Interior), 1.8 LBs, 2.5 CBs, 2.3 Ss, and 0.3 P/Ks (we need to come up with some value here). You can quibble with the ratios, but here are the per snap results using those numbers. This is where the league’s lack of draft capital spent on guards and centers stands out, along with the heavy emphasis on edge rushers and interior defensive linemen.

So what’s up with the lack of draft capital spent on centers and guards? This was a weak free agent year for interior offensive linemen, with Mitch Morse, Matt Paradis, and Rodger Saffold being the only notable free agents. Perhaps this is was a weak guard class — and that’s why you saw teams with a need at the position trade for Kelechi Osemele and Kevin Zeitler.

Some other takeaways:

This was a second straight weak year for wide receivers. Last year, the first WR went off the board at 24, and just 10 of the first 100 picks were wide receivers. This year, 10% of all draft capital was spent on wide receivers, despite them being about 11.4% of all players. Given the increasing importance placed on the passing game, I suspect we are due soon for a big year for receivers in the Draft.

Interior defensive linemen and edge rushers make up about 20% of all players on the field, but over 26% of all draft capital was spent on those players. This was billed as a draft for those players, and 13 of them — Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, Rashan Gary, Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons, Jerry Tillery, and L.J. Collier as interior defensive linemen and Nick Bosa, Clelin Ferrell, Josh Allen, Brian Burns, and Montez Sweat as edge rushers — went in the first round. That’s 41% of the first round! It appears that if you are a big bodied football player, you should go play defense.

Finally, the table below shows the first 224 players in the 2018 Draft, their position (as identified by me), and their draft value. Feel free to change whatever you like: the data is yours.

Rnd	Pick	Tm	Player	College	Pos	Value
1	1	ARI	Kyler Murray	Oklahoma	QB	34.6
1	2	SFO	Nick Bosa	Ohio St.	Edge	30.2
1	3	NYJ	Quinnen Williams	Alabama	DI	27.6
1	4	OAK	Clelin Ferrell	Clemson	Edge	25.8
1	5	TAM	Devin White	LSU	LB	24.3
1	6	NYG	Daniel Jones	Duke	QB	23.2
1	7	JAX	Josh Allen	Kentucky	Edge	22.2
1	8	DET	T.J. Hockenson	Iowa	TE	21.4
1	9	BUF	Ed Oliver	Houston	DI	20.6
1	10	PIT	Devin Bush	Michigan	LB	19.9
1	11	CIN	Jonah Williams	Alabama	G	19.3
1	12	GNB	Rashan Gary	Michigan	DI	18.8
1	13	MIA	Christian Wilkins	Clemson	DI	18.3
1	14	ATL	Chris Lindstrom	Boston Col.	G	17.8
1	15	WAS	Dwayne Haskins	Ohio St.	QB	17.4
1	16	CAR	Brian Burns	Florida St.	Edge	16.9
1	17	NYG	Dexter Lawrence	Clemson	DI	16.6
1	18	MIN	Garrett Bradbury	North Carolina St.	C	16.2
1	19	TEN	Jeffery Simmons	Mississippi St.	DI	15.8
1	20	DEN	Noah Fant	Iowa	TE	15.5
1	21	GNB	Darnell Savage	Maryland	S	15.2
1	22	PHI	Andre Dillard	Washington St.	OT	14.9
1	23	HOU	Tytus Howard	Alabama St.	OT	14.6
1	24	OAK	Josh Jacobs	Alabama	RB	14.4
1	25	BAL	Marquise Brown	Oklahoma	WR	14.1
1	26	WAS	Montez Sweat	Mississippi St.	Edge	13.9
1	27	OAK	Johnathan Abram	Mississippi St.	S	13.6
1	28	LAC	Jerry Tillery	Notre Dame	DI	13.4
1	29	SEA	L.J. Collier	TCU	DI	13.2
1	30	NYG	Deandre Baker	Georgia	CB	12.9
1	31	ATL	Kaleb McGary	Washington	OT	12.7
1	32	NWE	N'Keal Harry	Arizona St.	WR	12.5
2	33	ARI	Byron Murphy	Washington	CB	12.3
2	34	IND	Rock Ya-Sin	Temple	CB	12.1
2	35	JAX	Jawaan Taylor	Florida	OT	12
2	36	SFO	Deebo Samuel	South Carolina	WR	11.8
2	37	CAR	Greg Little	Mississippi	OT	11.6
2	38	BUF	Cody Ford	Oklahoma	OT	11.4
2	39	TAM	Sean Bunting	Central Michigan	CB	11.3
2	40	OAK	Trayvon Mullen	Clemson	CB	11.1
2	41	DEN	Dalton Risner	Kansas St.	OT	11
2	42	DEN	Drew Lock	Missouri	QB	10.8
2	43	DET	Jahlani Tavai	Hawaii	LB	10.6
2	44	GNB	Elgton Jenkins	Mississippi St.	C	10.5
2	45	NWE	Joejuan Williams	Vanderbilt	CB	10.4
2	46	CLE	Greedy Williams	LSU	CB	10.2
2	47	SEA	Marquise Blair	Utah	S	10.1
2	48	NOR	Erik McCoy	Texas A&M	C	9.9
2	49	IND	Ben Banogu	TCU	Edge	9.8
2	50	MIN	Irv Smith Jr.	Alabama	TE	9.7
2	51	TEN	A.J. Brown	Mississippi	WR	9.6
2	52	CIN	Drew Sample	Washington	TE	9.4
2	53	PHI	Miles Sanders	Penn St.	RB	9.3
2	54	HOU	Lonnie Johnson Jr.	Kentucky	CB	9.2
2	55	HOU	Max Scharping	Northern Illinois	OT	9.1
2	56	KAN	Mecole Hardman	Georgia	WR	9
2	57	PHI	JJ Arcega-Whiteside	Stanford	WR	8.9
2	58	DAL	Trysten Hill	Central Florida	DI	8.7
2	59	IND	Parris Campbell	Ohio St.	WR	8.6
2	60	LAC	Nasir Adderley	Delaware	S	8.5
2	61	LAR	Taylor Rapp	Washington	S	8.4
2	62	ARI	Andy Isabella	Massachusetts	WR	8.3
2	63	KAN	Juan Thornhill	Virginia	S	8.2
2	64	SEA	D.K. Metcalf	Mississippi	WR	8.1
3	65	ARI	Zach Allen	Boston Col.	DI	8
3	66	PIT	Diontae Johnson	Toledo	WR	7.9
3	67	SFO	Jalen Hurd	Baylor	WR	7.8
3	68	NYJ	Jachai Polite	Florida	Edge	7.7
3	69	JAX	Josh Oliver	San Jose St.	TE	7.6
3	70	LAR	Darrell Henderson	Memphis	RB	7.5
3	71	DEN	Dre'mont Jones	Ohio St.	DI	7.5
3	72	CIN	Germaine Pratt	North Carolina St.	LB	7.4
3	73	CHI	David Montgomery	Iowa St.	RB	7.3
3	74	BUF	Devin Singletary	Florida Atlantic	RB	7.2
3	75	GNB	Jace Sternberger	Texas A&M	TE	7.1
3	76	WAS	Terry McLaurin	Ohio St.	WR	7
3	77	NWE	Chase Winovich	Michigan	Edge	6.9
3	78	MIA	Michael Deiter	Wisconsin	G	6.9
3	79	LAR	David Long	Michigan	CB	6.8
3	80	CLE	Sione Takitaki	BYU	LB	6.7
3	81	DET	Will Harris	Boston Col.	S	6.6
3	82	TEN	Nate Davis	Charlotte	G	6.5
3	83	PIT	Justin Layne	Michigan St.	CB	6.5
3	84	KAN	Khalen Saunders	Western Illinois	DI	6.4
3	85	BAL	Jaylon Ferguson	Louisiana Tech	Edge	6.3
3	86	HOU	Kahale Warring	San Diego St.	TE	6.2
3	87	NWE	Damien Harris	Alabama	RB	6.2
3	88	SEA	Cody Barton	Utah	LB	6.1
3	89	IND	Bobby Okereke	Stanford	LB	6
3	90	DAL	Connor McGovern	Penn St.	G	5.9
3	91	LAC	Trey Pipkins	Sioux Falls	OT	5.9
3	91	LAC	Trey Pipkins	Sioux Falls	OT	5.9
3	92	NYJ	Chuma Edoga	USC	OT	5.8
3	93	BAL	Miles Boykin	Notre Dame	WR	5.7
3	94	TAM	Jamel Dean	Auburn	CB	5.7
3	95	NYG	Oshane Ximines		Edge	5.6
3	96	BUF	Dawson Knox	Mississippi	TE	5.5
3	97	LAR	Bobby Evans	Oklahoma	OT	5.5
3	99	TAM	Mike Edwards	Kentucky	S	5.3
3	100	CAR	Will Grier	West Virginia	QB	5.3
3	101	NWE	Yodny Cajuste	West Virginia	OT	5.2
3	102	MIN	Alexander Mattison	Boise St.	RB	5.1
4	103	ARI	Hakeem Butler	Iowa St.	WR	5.1
4	104	CIN	Ryan Finley	North Carolina St.	QB	5
4	105	NYJ	Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	Florida	S	5
4	106	OAK	Maxx Crosby	East. Michigan	Edge	4.9
4	107	TAM	Anthony Nelson	Iowa	DI	4.8
4	108	NYG	Julian Love	Notre Dame	CB	4.8
4	109	IND	Khari Willis	Michigan St.	S	4.7
4	110	SFO	Mitch Wishnowsky	Utah	P/K	4.7
4	111	ATL	Kendall Sheffield	Ohio St.	CB	4.6
4	112	WAS	Bryce Love	Stanford	RB	4.6
4	113	BAL	Justice Hill	Oklahoma St.	RB	4.5
4	114	MIN	Dru Samia	Oklahoma	G	4.4
4	115	CAR	Christian Miller	Alabama	Edge	4.4
4	116	TEN	Amani Hooker	Iowa	S	4.3
4	117	DET	Austin Bryant	Clemson	Edge	4.3
4	118	NWE	Hjalte Froholdt	Arkansas	G	4.2
4	119	CLE	Sheldrick Redwine	Miami (FL)	S	4.2
4	120	SEA	Gary Jennings Jr.	West Virginia	WR	4.1
4	121	TEN	Trevon Wesco	West Virginia	TE	4.1
4	122	PIT	Benny Snell Jr.	Kentucky	RB	4
4	123	BAL	Ben Powers	Oklahoma	G	4
4	124	SEA	Phil Haynes	Wake Forest	G	3.9
4	125	CIN	Renell Wren	Arizona St.	DI	3.9
4	126	CHI	Riley Ridley	Georgia	WR	3.8
4	127	BAL	Iman Marshall	USC	CB	3.8
4	128	DAL	Tony Pollard	Memphis	RB	3.7
4	129	OAK	Isaiah Johnson	Houston	CB	3.7
4	130	LAC	Drue Tranquill	Notre Dame	LB	3.6
4	131	WAS	Wes Martin	Indiana	G	3.6
4	132	SEA	Ugochukwu Amadi	Oregon	S	3.5
4	133	NWE	Jarrett Stidham	Auburn	QB	3.5
4	134	LAR	Greg Gaines	Washington	DI	3.4
4	135	ATL	John Cominsky	Charleston	DI	3.4
4	136	CIN	Michael Jordan	Ohio St.	G	3.3
4	137	OAK	Foster Moreau	LSU	TE	3.3
4	138	PHI	Shareef Miller	Penn St.	Edge	3.2
5	139	ARI	Deionte Thompson	Alabama	S	3.2
5	140	JAX	Ryquell Armstead	Temple	RB	3.1
5	141	PIT	Zach Gentry	Michigan	TE	3.1
5	142	SEA	Ben Burr-Kirven	Washington	LB	3
5	143	NYG	Ryan Connelly	Wisconsin	LB	3
5	144	IND	Marvell Tell III	USC	S	3
5	145	TAM	Matt Gay	Utah	P/K	2.9
5	146	DET	Amani Oruwariye	Penn St.	CB	2.9
5	147	BUF	Vosean Joseph	Florida	LB	2.8
5	148	SFO	Dre Greenlaw	Arkansas	LB	2.8
5	149	OAK	Hunter Renfrow	Clemson	WR	2.7
5	150	GNB	Kingsley Keke	Texas A&M	DI	2.7
5	151	MIA	Andrew Van Ginkel	Wisconsin	Edge	2.7
5	152	ATL	Qadree Ollison	Pittsburgh	RB	2.6
5	153	WAS	Ross Pierschbacher	Alabama	G	2.6
5	154	CAR	Jordan Scarlett	Florida	RB	2.5
5	155	CLE	Mack Wilson	Alabama	LB	2.5
5	156	DEN	Justin Hollins	Oregon	Edge	2.4
5	157	NYJ	Blake Cashman	Minnesota	LB	2.4
5	158	DAL	Michael Jackson	Miami (FL)	CB	2.4
5	159	NWE	Byron Cowart	Maryland	DI	2.3
5	160	BAL	Daylon Mack	Texas A&M	DI	2.3
5	161	HOU	Charles Omenihu	Texas	DI	2.2
5	162	MIN	Cameron Smith	USC	LB	2.2
5	163	NWE	Jake Bailey	Stanford	P/K	2.2
5	164	IND	E.J. Speed	Tarleton St.	LB	2.1
5	165	DAL	Joe Jackson	Miami (FL)	DI	2.1
5	166	LAC	Easton Stick	North Dakota St.	QB	2
5	167	PHI	Clayton Thorson	Northwestern	QB	2
5	168	TEN	D'Andre Walker	Georgia	Edge	2
5	169	LAR	David Edwards	Wisconsin	OT	1.9
5	170	CLE	Austin Seibert	Oklahoma	P/K	1.9
5	171	NYG	Darius Slayton	Auburn	WR	1.9
5	172	ATL	Jordan Miller	Washington	CB	1.8
5	173	WAS	Cole Holcomb	North Carolina	LB	1.8
6	174	ARI	KeeSean Johnson	Fresno St.	WR	1.7
6	175	PIT	Sutton Smith	Northern Illinois	Edge	1.7
6	176	SFO	Kaden Smith	Stanford	TE	1.7
6	177	NOR	Saquan Hampton	Rutgers	S	1.6
6	178	JAX	Gardner Minshew	Washington St.	QB	1.6
6	179	ARI	Lamont Gaillard	Georgia	C	1.6
6	180	NYG	Corey Ballentine	Washburn	CB	1.5
6	181	BUF	Jaquan Johnson	Miami (FL)	CB	1.5
6	182	CIN	Trayveon Williams	Texas A&M	RB	1.5
6	183	SFO	Justin Skule	Vanderbilt	OT	1.4
6	184	DET	Travis Fulgham		WR	1.4
6	185	GNB	Ka'dar Hollman	Toledo	CB	1.4
6	186	DET	Ty Johnson	Oklahoma St.	RB	1.3
6	187	DEN	Juwann Winfree	Colorado	WR	1.3
6	188	TEN	David Long Jr.	West Virginia	LB	1.3
6	189	CLE	Drew Forbes	Southeast Missouri State	OT	1.2
6	190	MIN	Armon Watts	Arkansas	DI	1.2
6	191	MIN	Marcus Epps	Wyoming	S	1.2
6	192	PIT	Isaiah Buggs	Alabama	DI	1.1
6	193	MIN	Oli Udoh	Elon	OT	1.1
6	194	GNB	Dexter Williams	Notre Dame	RB	1.1
6	195	HOU	Xavier Crawford	Central Michigan	CB	1
6	196	NYJ	Blessuan Austin	Rutgers	CB	1
6	197	BAL	Trace McSorley	Penn St.	QB	1
6	198	SFO	Tim Harris	Virginia	CB	0.9
6	199	IND	Gerri Green	Mississippi St.	Edge	0.9
6	200	LAC	Emeke Egbule	Houston	LB	0.9
6	201	KAN	Rashad Fenton	South Carolina	CB	0.8
6	202	MIA	Isaiah Prince	Ohio St.	OT	0.8
6	203	ATL	Marcus Green	Louisiana-Monroe	WR	0.8
6	204	SEA	Travis Homer	Miami (FL)	RB	0.7
6	205	CHI	Duke Shelley	Kansas St.	CB	0.7
6	206	WAS	Kelvin Harmon	North Carolina St.	WR	0.7
6	207	PIT	Ulysees Gilbert III	Akron	LB	0.6
6	208	TAM	Scott Miller	Bowling Green	WR	0.6
6	209	SEA	Demarcus Christmas	Florida St.	DI	0.6
6	210	CIN	Deshaun Davis	Auburn	LB	0.6
6	211	CIN	Rodney Anderson	Oklahoma	RB	0.5
6	212	CAR	Dennis Daley	South Carolina	OT	0.5
6	213	DAL	Donovan Wilson	Texas A&M	S	0.5
6	214	KAN	Darwin Thompson	Utah St.	RB	0.4
7	215	TAM	Terry Beckner	Missouri	DI	0.4
7	216	KAN	Nick Allegretti	Illinois	G	0.4
7	217	MIN	Kris Boyd	Texas	CB	0.3
7	218	DAL	Mike Weber	Ohio St.	RB	0.3
7	219	PIT	Derwin Gray	Maryland	OT	0.3
7	220	HOU	Cullen Gillaspia	Texas A&M	RB	0.3
7	221	CLE	Donnie Lewis Jr.	Tulane	CB	0.2
7	222	CHI	Kerrith Whyte Jr.	Florida Atlantic	RB	0.2
7	223	CIN	Jordan Brown	South Dakota St.	CB	0.2
7	224	DET	Isaac Nauta	Georgia	TE	0.1

Tagged as: 2019 Draft, Draft

{ 0 comments }