Two weeks ago, I looked at the best punt returners in NFL history; today, a look at the top kickoff returners. Again, we begin with a graph of the league average yards per kickoff return from 1941 through 2013. The variation here has been relatively minor, falling in a 5-yard window from 18.9 yards per return to 23.7.

In 2011, the NFL moved kickoffs up from the 30-yard line to the 35-yard line; immediately after, kickoff return average climbed to a 23.7, the highest in NFL history. Kickoff returns dropped from 2,033 in 2010 to 1,374 in 2011, so it’s reasonable to conclude that the increase in average was a reflection of sample bias; with fewer kickoffs being returned, we can presume that returners were, on average, taking the ball out of the end zone in more advantageous situations. On the other hand, the average also spiked in 1994, when the kickoff was moved back from the 35 to the 30! In 1993, there were 1,381 kickoff returns; in 1994, there were 1,842. That spike seems harder to understand.

In any event, we will again adjust kickoff returns for era. I used essentially the same formula as I did to calculate the best punt returners:

1) Assign 15 yards for every kickoff return touchdown.

2) Calculate each player’s Adjusted Yards per Kickoff Return for each season, defined as simply (Kickoff Return Yards + 15*KRTDs) / Kickoff Returns.

3) Subtract the league average AY/KR rate from each player’s AY/KR average.

4) Multiply that result by the player’s number of kickoff returns, to produce a value-over-average statistic.

As before, this is far from a perfect solution. In fact, there may be even more shortcomings here than there was with punt returns, and I will again mention some of those at the end of this post. But I do think this system is an improvement over the current ways in which we measure kickoff returners, so let’s march onwards.

In 2013, the top kickoff returner was Cordarrelle Patterson, and the system surely does not succumb to any shortcomings here. The Vikings rookie led the NFL in both kickoff return average and touchdowns, and ranked second in yards to Devin Hester (who needed nine more returns to gain those extra 43 yards). Patterson averaged 33.1 adjusted yards per kickoff return; given his 43 returns and the NFL average of 23.4, that means Patterson provided 416 yards of value over average, easily the most in the league. The table below shows the amount of value added by every kickoff returner in 2013; by default, the table displays the top 10, but you can change that number in the dropdown box on the left. As always, the table is fully sortable and searchable, too.

Two Chiefs make it into the top 10; together, Quintin Demps and Knile Davis helped Kansas City lead the league in return average by 3.5 yards more than the next best team. Along with a great defense, the return units (remember, Dexter McCluster was the top punt returner of 2013) were the reason the Chiefs led the league in average starting field position (the 33.6-yard line). The bottom of this list is filled with “returners” who presumably covered a fair number of onside kicks and intentionally short kickoffs. Still, Arizona and Washington each have regular returners near the bottom, and both squads suffered from terrible return units.

Next, let’s look at the 300 best kickoff return seasons in football history using this metric. Of note: Patterson’s 2013 season was the 2nd best ever, behind only Josh Cribbs’ magnificent 2007 season (remember, that year, Cribbs also provided 142 yards of punt return value over average):

Cribbs was able to sustain a 31.2 AY/KR average over 59 kickoff returns, which makes him a worthy selection for the top returner. MarTay Jenkins is the single-season leader in kickoff return yards (how many people knew that?!), but he’s also the single-season leader in kickoff returns.

Travis Williams took four of his 18 kickoffs back for touchdowns, including two in the first quarter against the Browns. Deion Sanders’ 1992 season checks in at number 12, while Gale Sayers has three top-115 seasons. But the king here is undoubtedly Mel Gray; in addition to a top ten season in ’94, he had two other top-60 seasons, and four more in the top 250. Does that make him the best kickoff returner ever?

As before, I’m going to utilize two different methods to create career rankings. The first is to simply sum the values produced by each returner in every season of his career. But adding the grades for each season tends to award longevity over dominance, and a really bad season can cancel out a really good season. Some might think those are good aspects of the system, but when we think of the best returners, we tend to think of them at their best. So the other formula I used was to take 100% of each kickoff returner’s best season, 90% of their second best, 80% of their third best, and so on; I also did not include any season where the kickoff returner had a below-average grade.

Under either system, Gray stands out as the champ. His raw numbers are not incredibly impressive but that’s because he played in the dead ball era of kickoff returns. For example, his career AY/KR is 1.5 yards worse than Cribbs, but he provided over 500 more yards of value over the course of his career (despite having just 14 more returns). That’s because of the era adjustment (and since Gray was so dominant for so long and almost never below average, his “sum of all seasons” grade looks to be unbreakable). Here’s how to read Gray’s line: he played from 1986 to 1997, returned 421 kickoffs for 10,250 yards and 6 touchdowns, and averaged 24.6 AY/KR. If you add his value from each season of his career, he produced 1802 yards of value over the average kickoff returner; using the 100/90/80 system, Gray produced 1235 yards of value.

Brad Oremland performed a similar analysis three years ago, and he came to the same conclusion: Gray is the clear choice for greatest kickoff returner ever. Honestly, there’s little to discuss; unless you think the era adjustment is inappropriate (I’m willing to hear arguments), Gray’s dominance in this metric is borderline Brown/Rice-like.

In my opinion, Cribbs has been harmed by playing at the same time as Hester (and playing for the Browns). Cribbs ranks as the 2nd best kickoff returner and the 26th best punt returner (Hester was 42nd and 1st, respectively), but he has never been revered the way Hester was during his prime.

Brian Mitchell would be a popular choice for best kickoff returner ever; he certainly has longevity on his side. But while Mitchell is the career leader in kickoff return yards by over 2,000, he also had nearly 100 more returns than any other player (that, of course, is also a sign of his greatness). The negatives? Mitchell returned just four kickoffs for touchdowns in his entire career, never led the league in yards per kickoff return, and only finished in the top four in yards per kickoff return once in his career.

Sayers would be another popular pick, but he fails for the opposite reason. With just 91 returns, it’s hard to put him over players like Cribbs and Gray. And in this case, the averages are a bit misleading: Sayers played in an extremely friendly environment, which is why his numbers “look” so much better than Gray’s. Williams, a Sayers contemporary, has pretty similar career numbers and none of the hype.  Sayers was a great returner, of course, but he wasn’t the best. That honor is reserved for Mel Gray.

Factors Adjusted Yards per Kickoff Return Does Not Incorporate

There are many variables that would go into a proper rating of a kickoff returner; here are just some of the big ones that are ignored in this system.

• Fumbling is the worst thing a kickoff returner can do, and avoiding fumbling is an important part of being a good returner. Unfortunately, with so many kickoff returners fumbling on non-kickoff plays, it’s impossible (at least historically) to separate kickoff return fumbles from other fumbles. I’ve thrown my hands up and ignored the issue, although with the time and inclination, I could include that data for the 1999 to 2013 seasons.
• The yards a player gains on kickoff returns are not solely attributable to him, of course. The quality of the coaching staff and the strength of his blockers play a huge part in determining how yards any given kickoff return gains. Similarly, the quality of the opponent, and stadium and weather effects, are also ignored.
• A kickoff returner can “game” the system a bit by returning kickoffs from deep in his own end zone, failing to get to the 20, but still producing an “above-average” return.
• To the extent opposing kickers act sub-optimally by kicking short (or even out of bounds) to avoid allowing a return, the kickoff returner is not awarded credit in my system for that value he has created. My memory is cloudy on the subject, but I believe Bears opponents have done this from time to time to avoid kicking to Hester.
• In theory, we would exclude “returns” that come from onside kicks or intentionally short kickoffs; in practice, we are unable to do this, at least historically.