The Giants Have Had Terrible Fumble Recovery Luck In 2016

by Chase Stuart on November 5, 2016

in Checkdowns, Statistics

On average, the fumbling team has recovered 56% of all fumbles this year. But that hasn’t been the case with the Giants. New York has fumbled 11 times this year, which means you would expect them to recover 6.2 of those fumbles. But the Giants have 8 lost fumbles this year, which means the team has recovered only 3 of those 11 fumbles, or 3.2 fewer fumbles than expected.

That’s really bad, although not the worst in the league. Carolina has fumbled 7 times, so we would expect the Panthers to have recovered 3.9 of those fumbles. Instead? Carolina is 0-for-7, so the Panthers have recovered 3.9 fewer fumbles than expected.

But the Giants haven’t recovered the ball frequently when their opponent fumbles, either. New York’s opponents have 8 fumbles, so you would expect the Giants to have recovered 3.5 of them (or, stated another way, that their opponents should have recovered 4.5 of them). But Giants opponents have lost just one fumble this year, so New York has recovered 2.5 fewer fumbles than expected in this area of the game, too. Add it up, and that means the Giants have recovered 5.7 fewer fumbles than you would think. And that New York has recovered just 21% of all footballs to hit the ground in their games, regardless of the fumbling team

Here’s the data for all 32 teams through week 8 plus Thursday night. Here’s how to read the Steelers line. Pittsburgh has 9 fumbles of its own, but has only lost 2 fumbles, so the Steelers own fumble recovery percentage is a robust 78%, and Pittsburgh has recovered 2.0 more fumbles than expected. Meanwhile, Steelers opponents have 10 fumbles, and Steelers opponents have lost 5 of them, so the Steelers have recovered 50% of all fumbles here, too. ^[1]Note that “Opp FR%” means percentage of opponents fumbles that your team recovers. So Denver, at 72.7%, has recovered a lot of those fumbles. This means the Steelers have recovered 0.6 more fumbles than expected of their opponents, and therefore 2.6 more fumbles overall than expected. The final column shows that Pittsburgh has recovered 63.2% of all fumbles in play this year, second most to those always-lucky Browns.

Search:

Rk	Team	Own Fum	Own FL	Own FR%	Own vs. Exp	Opp Fum	Opp FL	Opp FR %	Opp vs. Exp	Total FR vs. Exp	Fum Rec % (All)
1.5	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	2	78%	2.0	10	5	50%	0.6	2.6	63.2%
1.5	Philadelphia Eagles	13	4	69%	1.7	14	7	50%	0.8	2.6	59.3%
3	Cleveland Browns	14	3	79%	3.2	6	2	33.3%	-0.6	2.5	65%
4.5	Denver Broncos	12	6	50%	-0.7	11	8	72.7%	3.2	2.4	60.9%
4.5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12	5	58%	0.3	11	7	63.6%	2.2	2.4	60.9%
6.5	Minnesota Vikings	10	4	60%	0.4	12	7	58.3%	1.7	2.1	59.1%
6.5	Los Angeles Rams	9	3	67%	1.0	11	6	54.5%	1.2	2.1	60%
8	Arizona Cardinals	14	4	71%	2.2	14	6	42.9%	-0.2	2.0	57.1%
9	Buffalo Bills	10	2	80%	2.4	16	6	37.5%	-1.0	1.4	53.8%
10	Indianapolis Colts	9	3	67%	1.0	11	5	45.5%	0.2	1.1	55%
11	Seattle Seahawks	11	3	73%	1.8	7	2	28.6%	-1.1	0.8	55.6%
12	Washington Redskins	11	4	64%	0.8	14	6	42.9%	-0.2	0.7	52%
13	New Orleans Saints	7	4	43%	-0.9	10	6	60%	1.6	0.7	52.9%
14	Tennessee Titans	10	4	60%	0.4	2	1	50%	0.1	0.5	58.3%
15	Green Bay Packers	14	6	57%	0.2	6	3	50%	0.4	0.5	55%
16.5	Baltimore Ravens	10	5	50%	-0.6	9	5	55.6%	1.0	0.4	52.6%
16.5	San Francisco 49ers	12	6	50%	-0.7	11	6	54.5%	1.2	0.4	52.2%
18	Dallas Cowboys	10	4	60%	0.4	14	6	42.9%	-0.2	0.2	50%
19	Houston Texans	10	4	60%	0.4	8	3	37.5%	-0.5	-0.1	50%
20	New England Patriots	15	6	60%	0.6	11	4	36.4%	-0.8	-0.2	50%
21	Chicago Bears	12	5	58%	0.3	9	3	33.3%	-1.0	-0.7	47.6%
22	Oakland Raiders	7	3	57%	0.1	16	6	37.5%	-1.0	-1.0	43.5%
23	Detroit Lions	2	1	50%	-0.1	9	3	33.3%	-1.0	-1.1	36.4%
24	Cincinnati Bengals	9	5	44%	-1.0	7	3	42.9%	-0.1	-1.1	43.8%
25	San Diego Chargers	17	11	35%	-3.5	9	6	66.7%	2.0	-1.5	46.2%
26	New York Jets	11	5	55%	-0.2	11	3	27.3%	-1.8	-2.0	40.9%
27	Jacksonville Jaguars	8	4	50%	-0.5	8	2	25%	-1.5	-2.0	37.5%
28	Atlanta Falcons	5	3	40%	-0.8	12	4	33.3%	-1.3	-2.1	35.3%
29	Kansas City Chiefs	7	5	29%	-1.9	12	5	41.7%	-0.3	-2.2	36.8%
30	Miami Dolphins	7	4	43%	-0.9	10	3	30%	-1.4	-2.3	35.3%
31	Carolina Panthers	7	7	0%	-3.9	6	3	50%	0.4	-3.6	23.1%
32	New York Giants	11	8	27%	-3.2	8	1	12.5%	-2.5	-5.7	21.1%

A lot has been written about the Panthers (and to a lesser extent, Giants) under-performing. Bad fumble recovery numbers certainly haven’t helped.

References[+]

References
↑1	Note that “Opp FR%” means percentage of opponents fumbles that your team recovers. So Denver, at 72.7%, has recovered a lot of those fumbles.

Tagged as: Fumbles, Giants

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