The Greatest Postseason Games By Receivers, Part II

by Chase Stuart on July 14, 2016

in History, Playoffs, Receiving

Smith nearly drops the chip on his shoulder

Measuring receiver play is really tricky, and that’s before you even get to things like supporting cast. But I want to at least put something out there to measure receiver play in the postseason, something that would be an improvement on just looking at the leaders in receiving yards. So here’s what I did. Let’s use two great playoff performances as our examples.

1) Calculate each player’s Adjusted Catch Yards in a game. In a 1974 playoff loss to Pittsburgh, Oakland wide receiver Cliff Branch had a great game. He caught 9 passes for 186 yards and 1 touchdown; giving him 5 yards for every reception and 20 yards for every touchdown, that translates to 251 Adjusted Catch Yards.

In 2012, Calvin Johnson dominated the Saints defenses in the lone playoff game of his career; Johnson finished with a 12/211/2 stat line, worth 311 ACY, tied (with Reggie Wayne against Denver) for the third most ACY in a playoff game since 1960.

2) But we need to account for era, and we should also account for the quality of the opposition. So I looked at every team since 1960, and calculated the ACY allowed to all opposing players in every regular season game. Then, I took the top 16 (or fewer, in non-16 game seasons) performances during the regular season to calculate the average ACY allowed by each defense to the top opposing receiver.

This is a very, very high baseline, of course, but I am trying to measure dominance. If a team allows 80 yards, on average, to the opposing WR1, then an 80-yard playoff performance shouldn’t stand out as special.

The 2011 Saints allowed an average of 155 ACY to the top 16 players it faced that year. As a result, Johnson gets credit for 156 ACY over expectation. The 1974 Steelers? Well, they allowed just 94 ACY to the top 14 players it faced during the regular season. That gives Branch 157 ACY over expectation.

So Branch slightly beats Megatron using this formula, as gaining 251 ACY against a defense that usually allows 94 is seen as a hair better than gaining 311 against a defense that usually allows 156. Is this formula perfect? Of course not, but it’s a start. Branch’s game checks in as the 8th best since 1960, while Johnson’s is 10th. The top game? That honor belongs to Steve Smith, naturally.

The table below should be pretty easy to read, but let’s use the Ricky Sanders as an example. Sanders has the 4th best game since 1960, and he it came when he played for Washington against Denver in 1987. You can click the ‘Boxscore’ cell to see the Boxscore, and this game occurred in the Super Bowl. Sanders had a 9/193/2 stat line, for a whopping 278 ACY. Denver’s “average rating” was 108 ACY, so Sanders was at +170 that day.

Rk	Receiver	Tm	Opp	Year	Boxscore	Rd	Rec	Yds	TD	ACY	SOS	Diff
1	Steve Smith	CAR	CHI	2005	Boxscore	D	12	218	2	318	127	191
2	T.Y. Hilton	IND	KAN	2013	Boxscore	W	13	224	2	329	150	179
3	Eric Moulds	BUF	MIA	1998	Boxscore	W	9	240	1	305	130	175
4	Ricky Sanders	WAS	DEN	1987	Boxscore	S	9	193	2	278	108	170
5	Anthony Carter	MIN	SFO	1987	Boxscore	D	10	227	0	277	107	170
6	Reggie Wayne	IND	DEN	2004	Boxscore	W	10	221	2	311	145	166
7	Jerry Rice	SFO	CIN	1988	Boxscore	S	11	215	1	290	130	160
8	Cliff Branch	OAK	PIT	1974	Boxscore	C	9	186	1	251	94	157
9	Michael Irvin	DAL	SFO	1994	Boxscore	C	12	192	2	292	135	157
10	Calvin Johnson	DET	NOR	2011	Boxscore	W	12	211	2	311	155	156
11	Julio Jones	ATL	SFO	2012	Boxscore	C	11	182	2	277	135	142
12	Steve Watson	DEN	PIT	1984	Boxscore	D	11	177	1	252	116	136
13	John Stallworth	PIT	DEN	1978	Boxscore	D	10	156	1	226	94	132
14	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	PIT	2011	Boxscore	W	4	204	1	244	112	132
15	Andre Reed	BUF	HOU	1992	Boxscore	W	8	136	3	236	107	129
16	Randy Moss	MIN	STL	1999	Boxscore	D	9	188	2	273	144	129
17	Terrell Owens	SFO	NYG	2002	Boxscore	W	9	177	2	262	134	129
18	Pierre Garcon	IND	NYJ	2009	Boxscore	C	11	151	1	226	99	127
19	Preston Pearson	DAL	RAM	1975	Boxscore	C	7	123	3	218	93	125
20	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	PHI	2008	Boxscore	C	9	152	3	257	133	124
21	Thurman Thomas	BUF	CLE	1989	Boxscore	D	13	150	2	255	131	124
22	Jerry Rice	OAK	NYJ	2001	Boxscore	W	9	183	1	248	124	124
23	Fred Biletnikoff	OAK	KAN	1968	Boxscore	D	7	180	3	275	154	121
24	Shannon Sharpe	DEN	RAI	1993	Boxscore	W	13	156	1	241	121	120
25	Jerry Rice	SFO	SDG	1994	Boxscore	S	10	149	3	259	139	120
26	Jerry Rice	SFO	DEN	1989	Boxscore	S	7	148	3	243	124	119
27	Haven Moses	DEN	OAK	1977	Boxscore	C	5	168	2	233	116	117
28	Kellen Winslow	SDG	MIA	1981	Boxscore	D	13	166	1	251	137	114
29	Rob Gronkowski	NWE	DEN	2011	Boxscore	D	10	145	3	255	146	109
30	Fred Biletnikoff	OAK	NYJ	1968	Boxscore	C	7	190	1	245	138	107
31	Art Monk	WAS	SFO	1990	Boxscore	D	10	163	1	233	127	106
32	Marques Colston	NOR	SEA	2013	Boxscore	D	11	144	1	219	118	101
33	Amani Toomer	NYG	SFO	2002	Boxscore	W	8	136	3	236	135	101
34	Vernon Davis	SFO	NOR	2011	Boxscore	D	7	180	2	255	155	100
35	Sidney Rice	MIN	DAL	2009	Boxscore	D	6	141	3	231	131	100
36	Ernest Givins	HOU	PIT	1989	Boxscore	W	11	136	2	231	133	98
37	Charley Taylor	WAS	DAL	1972	Boxscore	C	7	146	2	221	123	98
38	Amp Lee	MIN	CHI	1994	Boxscore	W	11	159	1	234	137	97
39	Mark Duper	MIA	PIT	1984	Boxscore	C	5	148	2	213	116	97
40	James Lofton	BUF	MIA	1990	Boxscore	D	7	149	1	204	108	96
41	Stephone Paige	KAN	MIA	1990	Boxscore	W	8	142	1	202	108	94
42	Dan Ross	CIN	SFO	1981	Boxscore	S	11	104	2	199	105	94
43	Deion Branch	NWE	CAR	2003	Boxscore	S	10	143	1	213	119	94
44	Brett Perriman	DET	GNB	1993	Boxscore	W	10	150	1	220	127	93
45	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	GNB	2015	Boxscore	D	8	176	1	236	143	93
46	O.J. McDuffie	MIA	BUF	1995	Boxscore	W	11	154	1	229	137	92
47	John Jefferson	GNB	STL	1982	Boxscore	W	6	148	2	218	126	92
48	Johnny Perkins	NYG	SFO	1981	Boxscore	D	7	121	2	196	105	91
49	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	CAR	2008	Boxscore	D	8	166	1	226	136	90
50	Willie Jackson	NOR	STL	2000	Boxscore	W	6	142	3	232	145	87
51	Antonio Freeman	GNB	DEN	1997	Boxscore	S	9	126	2	211	124	87
52	Marvin Harrison	IND	DEN	2003	Boxscore	W	7	133	2	208	122	86
53	Ike Hilliard	NYG	MIN	2000	Boxscore	C	10	155	2	245	160	85
54	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	SEA	2013	Boxscore	S	13	118	1	203	118	85
55	Gary Collins	CLE	BAL	1964	Boxscore	C	5	130	3	215	130	85
56	Steve Smith	CAR	STL	2003	Boxscore	D	6	163	1	213	129	84
57	Michael Haynes	ATL	NOR	1991	Boxscore	W	6	144	2	214	131	84
58	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	PIT	2008	Boxscore	S	7	127	2	202	119	83
59	Wesley Walker	NYJ	RAI	1982	Boxscore	D	7	169	1	224	141	83
60	Lynn Swann	PIT	DAL	1975	Boxscore	S	4	161	1	201	118	83
61	Fred Biletnikoff	OAK	NWE	1976	Boxscore	D	9	137	1	202	120	83
62	Brandon Stokley	IND	DEN	2003	Boxscore	W	4	144	2	204	122	82
63	John Williams	SEA	CIN	1988	Boxscore	D	11	137	1	212	130	82
64	Darrell Jackson	SEA	STL	2004	Boxscore	W	12	128	1	208	127	81
65	Frank Lewis	BUF	NYJ	1981	Boxscore	W	7	158	2	233	152	81
66	Jeff Janis	GNB	ARI	2015	Boxscore	D	7	145	2	220	139	81
67	Austin Collie	IND	NYJ	2009	Boxscore	C	7	123	1	178	99	79
68	Isaac Bruce	STL	TEN	1999	Boxscore	S	6	162	1	212	135	77
69	Willie Richardson	BAL	MIN	1968	Boxscore	D	6	148	0	178	101	77
70	Tony Hill	DAL	GNB	1982	Boxscore	D	7	142	0	177	103	74
71	Andre Reed	BUF	MIA	1990	Boxscore	D	4	122	2	182	108	74
72	Plaxico Burress	NYG	GNB	2007	Boxscore	C	11	151	0	206	132	74
73	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	GNB	2011	Boxscore	D	7	165	2	240	166	74
74	Andre Reed	BUF	DAL	1992	Boxscore	S	8	152	0	192	119	74
75	Steve Jordan	MIN	SFO	1989	Boxscore	D	9	149	0	194	121	73
76	Steve Smith	CAR	DAL	2003	Boxscore	W	5	135	1	180	107	73
77	Billy Parks	DAL	SFO	1972	Boxscore	D	7	136	1	191	120	71
78	Justin Gage	TEN	BAL	2008	Boxscore	D	10	135	0	185	114	71
79	Darrell Jackson	SEA	WAS	2005	Boxscore	D	9	143	1	208	137	71
80	Harold Jackson	RAM	MIN	1974	Boxscore	C	3	139	1	174	104	70
81	Darren Sproles	NOR	SFO	2011	Boxscore	D	15	118	1	213	143	70
82	Max McGee	GNB	KAN	1966	Boxscore	S	7	138	2	213	143	70
83	Jordy Nelson	GNB	PIT	2010	Boxscore	S	9	140	1	205	135	70
84	Jimmy Smith	JAX	MIA	1999	Boxscore	D	5	136	2	201	131	70
85	Rob Gronkowski	NWE	DEN	2015	Boxscore	C	8	144	1	204	134	70
86	Muhsin Muhammad	CAR	NWE	2003	Boxscore	S	4	140	1	180	110	70
87	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	DAL	2009	Boxscore	W	7	146	1	201	131	70
88	James Lofton	BUF	RAI	1990	Boxscore	C	5	113	2	178	109	69
89	Jerry Rice	SFO	CHI	1988	Boxscore	C	5	133	2	198	130	68
90	Wallace Francis	ATL	PHI	1978	Boxscore	W	6	135	1	185	117	68
91	Lynn Swann	PIT	DAL	1978	Boxscore	S	7	124	1	179	112	67
92	Willie Green	DET	DAL	1991	Boxscore	D	8	115	2	195	128	67
93	George Sauer	NYJ	BAL	1968	Boxscore	S	8	133	0	173	106	67
94	Earnest Byner	CLE	DEN	1987	Boxscore	C	7	120	1	175	108	67
95	Charlie Brown	WAS	RAM	1983	Boxscore	D	6	171	0	201	135	66
96	Isaac Bruce	STL	NOR	2000	Boxscore	W	7	127	1	182	117	65
97	Steve Largent	SEA	HOU	1987	Boxscore	W	7	132	2	207	142	65
98	Martavis Bryant	PIT	DEN	2015	Boxscore	D	9	154	0	199	134	65
99	Jerry Rice	SFO	DAL	1992	Boxscore	C	8	123	1	183	119	65
100	Ed Podolak	KAN	MIA	1971	Boxscore	D	8	110	1	170	106	64
101	Michael Irvin	DAL	GNB	1993	Boxscore	D	9	126	1	191	127	64
102	Fred Biletnikoff	OAK	MIA	1974	Boxscore	D	8	122	1	182	118	64
103	Sterling Sharpe	GNB	DAL	1993	Boxscore	D	6	128	1	178	114	64
104	Jermaine Kearse	SEA	CAR	2015	Boxscore	D	11	110	2	205	142	64
105	Cris Carter	MIN	NOR	2000	Boxscore	D	8	120	1	180	117	63
106	Alvin Garrett	WAS	DET	1982	Boxscore	W	6	110	3	200	137	63
107	Leonard Thompson	DET	WAS	1982	Boxscore	W	7	150	0	185	123	62
108	Michael Crabtree	SFO	GNB	2012	Boxscore	D	9	119	2	204	143	62
109	Keyshawn Johnson	NYJ	JAX	1998	Boxscore	D	9	121	1	186	125	62
110	Fred Barnett	PHI	NOR	1992	Boxscore	W	4	102	2	162	101	61
111	Jerry Rice	SFO	MIN	1989	Boxscore	D	6	114	2	184	123	61
112	Harold Carmichael	PHI	CHI	1979	Boxscore	W	6	111	2	181	120	61
113	Santonio Holmes	PIT	ARI	2008	Boxscore	S	9	131	1	196	136	60
114	Paul Warfield	MIA	BAL	1971	Boxscore	C	2	125	1	155	95	60
115	Zach Miller	SEA	ATL	2012	Boxscore	D	8	142	1	202	142	60
116	Keenan Allen	SDG	DEN	2013	Boxscore	D	6	142	2	212	153	60
117	Marques Colston	NOR	SFO	2011	Boxscore	D	9	136	1	201	143	58
118	John Stallworth	PIT	DAL	1978	Boxscore	S	3	115	2	170	112	58
119	Michael Irvin	DAL	BUF	1992	Boxscore	S	6	114	2	184	126	58
120	Don Hasselbeck	NWE	MIA	1982	Boxscore	W	7	87	1	142	85	57
121	Sterling Sharpe	GNB	DET	1993	Boxscore	W	5	101	3	186	129	57
122	Dwight Clark	SFO	DAL	1981	Boxscore	C	8	120	2	200	144	56
123	Roy Green	STL	GNB	1982	Boxscore	W	9	113	0	158	103	55
124	Charlie Joiner	SDG	OAK	1980	Boxscore	C	6	130	2	200	145	55
125	Dwayne Bowe	KAN	IND	2013	Boxscore	W	8	150	1	210	155	55
126	Deion Branch	NWE	PHI	2004	Boxscore	S	11	133	0	188	133	55
127	Randy Moss	MIN	NOR	2000	Boxscore	D	2	121	2	171	117	54
128	Bill Miller	OAK	GNB	1967	Boxscore	S	5	84	2	149	96	53
129	Webster Slaughter	CLE	BUF	1989	Boxscore	D	3	114	2	169	116	53
130	Rod Smith	DEN	ATL	1998	Boxscore	S	5	152	1	197	145	52
131	Herman Moore	DET	PHI	1995	Boxscore	W	7	133	1	188	136	52
132	Haywood Jeffires	HOU	BUF	1992	Boxscore	W	8	98	2	178	126	52
133	Reggie Bush	NOR	CHI	2006	Boxscore	C	7	132	1	187	135	52
134	Alfred Jenkins	ATL	DAL	1980	Boxscore	D	4	155	1	195	143	52
135	Rocket Ismail	DAL	MIN	1999	Boxscore	W	8	163	0	203	152	51
136	Paul Warfield	MIA	KAN	1971	Boxscore	D	7	140	0	175	124	51
137	Julian Edelman	NWE	SEA	2014	Boxscore	S	9	109	1	174	123	51
138	Steve Breaston	ARI	GNB	2009	Boxscore	W	7	125	1	180	129	51
139	Art Monk	WAS	CHI	1984	Boxscore	D	10	122	0	172	121	51
140	Frank Wycheck	TEN	PIT	2002	Boxscore	D	10	123	1	193	143	51
141	Greg Jennings	GNB	ARI	2009	Boxscore	W	8	130	1	190	140	50
142	Donald Driver	GNB	NYG	2007	Boxscore	C	5	141	1	186	136	50
143	Deion Branch	NWE	DEN	2005	Boxscore	D	8	153	0	193	143	50
144	Keith Jackson	MIA	SDG	1994	Boxscore	D	8	109	2	189	139	50
145	Jerry Porter	OAK	NYJ	2002	Boxscore	D	6	123	1	173	124	50
146	Victor Cruz	NYG	SFO	2011	Boxscore	C	10	142	0	192	143	49
147	Jermichael Finley	GNB	ARI	2009	Boxscore	W	6	159	0	189	140	49
148	Steve Largent	SEA	MIA	1984	Boxscore	D	6	128	1	178	130	48
149	Charlie Brown	WAS	SFO	1983	Boxscore	C	5	137	1	182	134	48
150	Earnest Gray	NYG	SFO	1981	Boxscore	D	3	118	1	153	105	48
151	Wesley Walker	NYJ	CIN	1982	Boxscore	W	8	145	1	205	157	48
152	Ron Jessie	RAM	MIN	1978	Boxscore	D	6	108	1	158	110	48
153	Robert Brooks	GNB	DAL	1994	Boxscore	D	8	138	0	178	130	48
154	Freddie Solomon	SFO	NYG	1981	Boxscore	D	6	107	1	157	109	48
155	Keith Jackson	PHI	CHI	1988	Boxscore	D	7	142	0	177	130	47
156	Vincent Jackson	SDG	NYJ	2009	Boxscore	D	7	111	0	146	99	47
157	Jimmy Smith	JAX	NYJ	1998	Boxscore	D	5	104	2	169	123	46
158	Anquan Boldin	SFO	CAR	2013	Boxscore	D	8	136	0	176	130	46
159	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	NWE	2013	Boxscore	C	7	134	1	189	144	45
160	Hines Ward	PIT	NYJ	2004	Boxscore	D	10	105	1	175	130	45
161	Bill Brooks	BUF	RAI	1993	Boxscore	D	6	96	2	166	121	45
162	Tony Hill	DAL	RAM	1983	Boxscore	W	9	115	1	180	135	45
163	Hines Ward	PIT	CLE	2002	Boxscore	W	11	104	1	179	134	45
164	Mark Jackson	DEN	CLE	1987	Boxscore	C	4	134	1	174	130	44
165	Deion Branch	NWE	PIT	2004	Boxscore	C	4	116	1	156	112	44
166	Jabar Gaffney	NWE	SDG	2006	Boxscore	D	10	103	1	173	130	43
167	Jerry Rice	SFO	MIN	1988	Boxscore	D	5	61	3	146	103	43
168	Carroll Dale	GNB	RAM	1967	Boxscore	D	6	109	1	159	116	43
169	Gary Clark	WAS	BUF	1991	Boxscore	S	7	114	1	169	126	43
170	Ahmad Rashad	MIN	RAM	1978	Boxscore	D	7	84	1	139	97	42
171	Bob Hayes	DAL	CLE	1967	Boxscore	D	5	144	1	189	147	42
172	Haywood Jeffires	HOU	DEN	1991	Boxscore	D	7	99	1	154	112	42
173	Otis Taylor	KAN	MIN	1969	Boxscore	S	6	81	1	131	89	42
174	Jordan Reed	WAS	GNB	2015	Boxscore	W	9	120	1	185	143	42
175	Mickey Shuler	NYJ	BUF	1981	Boxscore	W	6	116	1	166	124	42
176	John Stallworth	PIT	MIA	1984	Boxscore	C	4	111	2	171	130	41
177	Tom Waddle	CHI	DAL	1991	Boxscore	W	9	104	1	169	128	41
178	Dwight Clark	SFO	NYG	1984	Boxscore	D	9	112	1	177	136	41
179	Drew Pearson	DAL	RAM	1973	Boxscore	D	2	87	2	137	97	40
180	Russ Francis	NWE	HOU	1978	Boxscore	D	8	101	1	161	122	40
181	Carroll Dale	GNB	DAL	1966	Boxscore	C	5	128	1	173	134	39
182	Dave Casper	OAK	BAL	1977	Boxscore	D	4	70	3	150	111	39
183	Mike Barber	HOU	NWE	1978	Boxscore	D	5	83	2	148	110	39
184	Hines Ward	PIT	JAX	2007	Boxscore	W	10	135	0	185	147	38
185	Cris Carter	MIN	SFO	1997	Boxscore	D	6	93	2	163	125	38
186	Tony Nathan	MIA	PIT	1984	Boxscore	C	8	114	0	154	116	38
187	Brent Celek	PHI	ARI	2008	Boxscore	C	10	83	2	173	136	37
188	Marshall Faulk	STL	NOR	2000	Boxscore	W	7	99	1	154	117	37
189	Roy Jefferson	WAS	GNB	1972	Boxscore	D	5	84	1	129	92	37
190	Travis Kelce	KAN	HOU	2015	Boxscore	W	8	128	0	168	132	37
191	Bill Brown	MIN	BAL	1968	Boxscore	D	8	82	1	142	106	36
192	John Henderson	MIN	KAN	1969	Boxscore	S	7	111	0	146	110	36
193	Ernest Givins	HOU	BUF	1992	Boxscore	W	9	117	0	162	126	36
194	Ronnie Harmon	SDG	IND	1995	Boxscore	W	10	133	0	183	148	35
195	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	ATL	2011	Boxscore	W	6	115	2	185	150	35
196	Billy Cannon	HOU	LAC	1960	Boxscore	C	3	128	1	163	128	35
197	Derrick Mason	TEN	NWE	2003	Boxscore	D	7	90	1	145	110	35
198	Harold Jackson	RAM	DAL	1976	Boxscore	D	6	116	0	146	111	35
199	Andre Reed	BUF	CLE	1989	Boxscore	D	6	115	1	165	131	34
200	Antonio Gates	SDG	NYJ	2009	Boxscore	D	8	93	0	133	99	34

After Sanders’ great game — that earned him a shout out from the president — the top three Super Bowl games all belong to Jerry Rice, including in the two years following Sanders’ game. The 5th best Super Bowl performance? That came from Bengals tight end Dan Ross, in a remarkable performance that has been forgotten. He caught 11 of 13 targets for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns, while playing an ’81 49ers defense that ranked in the top 3 in points, yards, yards per attempt, and passing yards.

Both of Lynn Swann’s games against the Cowboys in the Super Bowl crack the top 100, although neither make the top 50. That would change quite a bit, of course, if we gave more weight to Super Bowl performances. Should we?

In case you were wondering, as I was, Don Maynard’s game against the Raiders in the 1968 AFL Championship — 6/118/2 — checked in at 201 on the list. That’s because the “expectation” against the Raiders was a whopping 154 ACY, making the ’68 Raiders similar to the ’11 Saints. Does that make any sense?

The 2011 Saints ranked 30th in passing yards allowed; the ’68 Raiders ranked 4th. New Orleans allowed 260 passing yards per game, while the Raiders allowed just 161. So what gives? Well, this comes back to the distribution of things.

In 14 games, the Raiders allowed 6 100-yard games, and 6 more games of at least 80 receiving yards. If you sort from top to bottom, the average of the 14 players with the most receiving yards against the Raiders in 1968 was 113 yards. The Saints allowed 8 100-yard games, and 13 games of 80+ yards, which is pretty comparable over 16 games. And the ’68 Raiders had two games worse than the ’11 Saints. As a result, the ’11 Saints allowed “only” 107 receiving yards, on average, in their worst 16 games. Using ACY instead of receiving yards make New Orleans slightly worse, but the real issue is that distributions were much narrower in the late ’60s than they are today, which offsets the crazy pass numbers we see today.

I’m not sure what the “right” way to adjust for era is when dealing with wide receivers, so I’ll open this one up to the comments. I don’t love this formula, but I do think it does a decent enough job of isolating the best games that I like it enough for our purposes. Any tweaks, of course, would be welcome (including whether we should adjust for pass attempts).

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