The Jay Schroeder Index

by Chase Stuart on May 20, 2017

Yesterday, I looked at the quarterbacks who were the biggest checkdown artists: i.e., which players had the best completion percentages and lowest yards per completion averages. I measured this by calculating how many standard deviations above/below average each quarterback was in those two categories in each year.

Today, the reverse. And the big winner is rookie Terry Bradshaw. We all know Bradshaw stunk as a rookie. He had a whopping 11.0% interception rate, which was horrible even for 1970. In fact, he has the second most attempts in history by a player with an 11% or worse interception rate. And since Bradshaw also ranked dead last in completion percentage, he ranked 2nd to last in ANY/A that year.

Of course, you might wonder: how could someone with the worst completion percentage and by far the worst interception rate not rank last (by a mile) in ANY/A? Well, it’s because Bradshaw ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards per completion as a rookie. He was your ultimate boom/bust passer, finishing 2.75 standard deviations below average in completion percentage and 2.18 standard deviations above average in yards per completion.

The top of the list features a bunch of interesting names, but I’m calling this the Jay Schroeder Index for a reason. Schroeder only had 8 seasons where he threw at least 200 passes, but he makes the top 200 in 6 of those 8 seasons! Schroeder made the list in ’86, ’87, and ’88 (despite moving from the Redskins to the Raiders this year), and then in ’90, ’91, and ’92. He only missed the list in 1989 during this run, and that’s because he threw just 194 passes. But in 1989, of the 34 quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts, Schroeder had the lowest completion percentage (46.9%) and by far the highest yards per completion average (17.0, the best of his career). In other words, Schroeder had a top-200 season in 6 out of 7 straight years, with the lone exception being perhaps his most Schroeder-esque season! Of course, Schroeder’s love of the deep ball isn’t new to readers of this site.

The table below shows the top 200 seasons based on the Schroeder Index, using the same formula as yesterday:

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Search:

Rk	Player	Team	Year	Cmp%	Yd/Cmp	Z-Score (Cmp)	Z-Score (Y/C)	Total
1	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1970	38.1%	17.0	-2.75	2.18	-4.94
2	Jim Zorn	SEA	1977	41.4%	16.2	-2.42	2.51	-4.93
3	Bobby Douglass	CHI	1972	37.9%	16.6	-2.77	2.11	-4.88
4	Gus Frerotte	WAS	1995	50.3%	13.8	-1.95	2.58	-4.52
5	Brian Hoyer	CLE	2014	55.3%	13.7	-2.05	2.47	-4.52
6	Heath Shuler	WAS	1994	45.3%	13.8	-2.23	2.25	-4.48
7	Cam Newton	CAR	2016	52.9%	13.0	-2.50	1.76	-4.26
8	Eric Hipple	DET	1981	50.2%	16.8	-1.12	3.13	-4.25
9	Tim Tebow	DEN	2011	46.5%	13.7	-2.72	1.53	-4.25
10	Doug Williams	TAM	1979	41.8%	14.7	-2.85	1.40	-4.25
11	Jay Schroeder	RAI	1988	44.1%	16.3	-1.99	2.22	-4.20
12	Matt Robinson	NYJ	1978	46.6%	16.1	-1.60	2.41	-4.01
13	Jay Schroeder	RAI	1990	54.5%	15.7	-0.67	3.27	-3.93
14	Steve Beuerlein	RAI	1988	44.1%	15.6	-1.99	1.80	-3.79
15	Patrick Ramsey	WAS	2002	51.5%	13.2	-1.59	2.12	-3.71
16	Drew Stanton	ARI	2014	55%	13.0	-2.11	1.58	-3.70
17	Warren Moon	HOU	1987	50%	15.3	-1.47	2.18	-3.66
18	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1980	51.4%	15.3	-1.28	2.33	-3.61
19	Donovan McNabb	PHI	2006	57%	14.7	-0.68	2.86	-3.53
20	Steve Grogan	NWE	1979	48.7%	16.0	-1.30	2.21	-3.52

Showing 1 to 20 of 200 entries

Just three quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era have ranked 1st in yards per completion but last in completion percentage, and you’ll probably be surprised by a couple of these names: Heath Shuler did it as a rookie for the Redskins in 1994, Bob Gagliano for the Lions in 1989 (the only year of his career with more than four starts), and Jim Zorn for the Seahawks in 1977, in the second year of both his and Steve Largent’s career.

We should also spend a few words on Cam Newton’s performance last year. Matt Ryan had a remarkable season in terms of both completion percentage (3rd) and yards per completion (1st). But if not for Ryan, Newton would have joined the list above: the Panthers star quarterback ranked dead last in completion percentage but for the 4th time in 6 years, he averaged at least 13 yards per completion. That was good enough for second in the league behind Ryan. Newton isn’t quite Schroeder yet, but he may wind up with more top-200 appearances on this list. And, of course, it should go without saying that Newton is a much better quarterback than Schroeder was.

What stands out to you on this list? What do you think of the Schroeder Index vs. the Bradford Index?

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