The Patriots Are 19-9 When Tom Brady Throws 50+ Times

by Chase Stuart on May 10, 2018

in Checkdowns

A few months ago on Reddit, I saw this remarkable stat: including the postseason, Tom Brady is 19-9 in games where he throws at least 50 passes.

How remarkable is that? All quarterbacks have a 0.230 winning percentage in games where they have thrown 50+ passes, which means you’d expect a quarterback with 28 such games to win 6.4 of them, not 19 of them. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Joe Montana, and Aaron Rodgers have won 19 games when throwing 50+ passes…. but have lost 54 times, a 0.260 winning percentage.

Brady’s success in these games is so remarkable that it might be too remarkable. What I mean by that is that if the average quarterback wins 23% of the time, and the greatest quarterbacks in the game win 26% of the time, seeing Brady win 68% of the time probably isn’t evidence that he’s the greatest quarterback ever — unless he’s about ten times better than every other great quarterback. I’ll let you speculate in the comments as to why the Patriots record is so incredible in these games. The table below shows the records of all quarterbacks in 50+ attempt games (minimum 4 such games), sorted by wins over expectation of a 0.230 winning percentage:

Search:

Rk	Quarterback	First Yr	Last Yr	Teams	Gms	Exp Wins	Wins	Win %	Wins Ov Exp
1	Tom Brady	2001	2017	NWE	28	6.4	19	0.679	12.6
2	Donovan McNabb	2000	2010	PHI/WAS	7	1.6	4.5	0.643	2.9
3	Warren Moon*	1989	1994	HOU/MIN	10	2.3	5	0.500	2.7
4	Dan Fouts*	1981	1987	SDG	5	1.1	3	0.600	1.9
5	Andrew Luck	2012	2015	IND	7	1.6	3	0.429	1.4
5	Tony Romo	2007	2013	DAL	7	1.6	3	0.429	1.4
7	Dan Marino*	1984	1999	MIA	16	3.7	5	0.313	1.3
8	Derek Carr	2014	2017	OAK	4	0.9	2	0.500	1.1
9	Drew Bledsoe	1994	2002	BUF/NWE	13	3.0	4	0.308	1.0
10	Ben Roethlisberger	2006	2017	PIT	9	2.1	3	0.333	0.9
10	Vinny Testaverde	1988	2004	TAM/BAL/NYJ/DAL	9	2.1	3	0.333	0.9
12	Randall Cunningham	1987	1998	PHI/MIN	5	1.1	2	0.400	0.9
12	Matt Hasselbeck	2002	2009	SEA	5	1.1	2	0.400	0.9
12	Joe Montana*	1985	1994	SFO/KAN	5	1.1	2	0.400	0.9
15	Brian Griese	2000	2008	DEN/TAM/CHI	6	1.4	2	0.333	0.6
16	Eli Manning	2005	2017	NYG	11	2.5	3	0.273	0.5
17	Rich Gannon	1991	2002	MIN/KAN/OAK	7	1.6	2	0.286	0.4
17	Matt Ryan	2010	2013	ATL	7	1.6	2	0.286	0.4
17	Matt Schaub	2009	2012	HOU	7	1.6	2	0.286	0.4
20	Brett Favre*	1993	2009	GNB/MIN	12	2.8	3	0.250	0.2
21	Peyton Manning	1998	2014	IND/DEN	17	3.9	4	0.235	0.1
22	Boomer Esiason	1985	1996	CIN/ARI	4	0.9	1	0.250	0.1
22	Jim Everett	1987	1994	RAM/NOR	4	0.9	1	0.250	0.1
22	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2010	2015	BUF/TEN/NYJ	4	0.9	1	0.250	0.1
22	Chad Henne	2009	2013	MIA/JAX	4	0.9	1	0.250	0.1
22	Jim Kelly*	1989	1993	BUF	4	0.9	1	0.250	0.1
22	Kyle Orton	2009	2014	DEN/BUF	4	0.9	1	0.250	0.1
22	Aaron Rodgers	2015	2017	GNB	4	0.9	1	0.250	0.1
22	Jay Schroeder	1985	1991	WAS/RAI	4	0.9	1	0.250	0.1
22	Richard Todd	1980	1983	NYJ	4	0.9	1	0.250	0.1
22	Jameis Winston	2015	2017	TAM	4	0.9	1	0.250	0.1
32	Joe Flacco	2011	2017	BAL	13	3.0	3	0.231	0.0
33	Brad Johnson	2001	2003	TAM	5	1.1	1	0.200	-0.1
33	Neil O'Donnell	1994	1997	PIT/NYJ	5	1.1	1	0.200	-0.1
33	Kurt Warner*	2003	2009	STL/ARI	5	1.1	1	0.200	-0.1
33	Doug Williams	1980	1989	TAM/WAS	5	1.1	1	0.200	-0.1
37	Drew Brees	2002	2016	SDG/NOR	19	4.4	4	0.211	-0.4
38	Blake Bortles	2015	2017	JAX	6	1.4	1	0.167	-0.4
38	Philip Rivers	2010	2015	SDG	6	1.4	1	0.167	-0.4
40	Joe Namath*	1966	1970	NYJ	5	1.1	0.5	0.100	-0.6
41	Troy Aikman*	1994	1998	DAL	4	0.9	0	0.000	-0.9
41	Andy Dalton	2013	2016	CIN	4	0.9	0	0.000	-0.9
41	Steve DeBerg	1979	1991	SFO/TAM/KAN	4	0.9	0	0.000	-0.9
41	Jeff George	1993	1999	IND/ATL/MIN	4	0.9	0	0.000	-0.9
41	Scott Mitchell	1995	1997	DET	4	0.9	0	0.000	-0.9
41	Mark Rypien	1989	1995	WAS/STL	4	0.9	0	0.000	-0.9
47	Carson Palmer	2004	2017	CIN/OAK/ARI	9	2.1	1	0.111	-1.1
48	George Blanda*	1960	1966	HOU	5	1.1	0	0.000	-1.1
48	Marc Bulger	2004	2008	STL	5	1.1	0	0.000	-1.1
50	Sam Bradford	2010	2016	STL/PHI/MIN	6	1.4	0	0.000	-1.4
50	Tommy Kramer	1979	1985	MIN	6	1.4	0	0.000	-1.4
52	Neil Lomax	1982	1988	STL/PHO	7	1.6	0	0.000	-1.6
53	Matthew Stafford	2009	2017	DET	12	2.8	1	0.083	-1.8
54	Kerry Collins	1998	2005	NYG/OAK/CAR	8	1.8	0	0.000	-1.8

Tagged as: Tom Brady

{ 0 comments }