The Patriots Really Want To Pass; Nobody Wants To Pass On the 49ers

by Chase Stuart on December 5, 2019

in Checkdowns

This graph shows every game this season. The X-Axis shows the Game Script in each game, for both teams, and the Y-Axis shows the pass ratio by each team in that game. As always, these is a relatively strong relationship between these two variables.

We can also calculate this on the season level, for all 32 teams, on both offense and defense. That’s what I did in the graph below, and there are three notable outliers among the league’s best teams: the Ravens offense, which is extremely run-heavy even given its Game Script, the Patriots offense, which is remarkably pass-heavy given its Game Script, and the 49ers defense, against which teams seem to avoid passing even given the largely negative Game Script those opponents face. I have shaded them in those colors below.

When the Ravens played the 49ers in week 13, you would predict a very run-heavy game after accounting for Game Script. And that’s exactly what happened: it was one of the 10 most run-heavy games of the season by any team. Baltimore had a Game Script of +0.3, so we would have expected an average team facing an average defense to pass on 58.8% of plays with that Game Script. Instead, Baltimore passed on just 39% of plays, a combination of the Ravens run-heavy offense and San Francisco’s great run defense.

The table below shows how the Pass Identity of the 64 units (each team’s offense and defense) in the NFL, from most pass-happy to least pass-happy. The Chiefs and Patriots lead the way in terms of being pass-happy, which is particularly interesting in the case of New England given the team’s struggles so far this season through the air. And on defense, no unit is close to forcing opponents to being as run-heavy as San Francisco.

Search:

Team	G	Game Script	Pass Ratio	Pass Heavy?
Kansas City Chiefs-Offense	12	4.8	63.4%	8%
New England Patriots-Offense	12	7.8	60.8%	7.6%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-D	12	-0.6	66%	6.5%
Atlanta Falcons-Offense	12	-4.7	68.3%	5.8%
Seattle Seahawks-D	12	-0.6	65.1%	5.6%
New Orleans Saints-Offense	12	3.6	61.6%	5.3%
New Orleans Saints-D	12	-3.6	65.8%	4.1%
Philadelphia Eagles-D	12	1.1	62.3%	4.1%
New York Jets-D	12	3.5	60.3%	4%
Houston Texans-D	12	0.1	62.5%	3.6%
Chicago Bears-Offense	12	0.4	62.2%	3.5%
Los Angeles Rams-Offense	12	1.6	61.1%	3.3%
Arizona Cardinals-D	12	3.2	59.8%	3.2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Offense	12	0.6	61.7%	3.1%
Los Angeles Chargers-Offense	12	-1.6	63.3%	3.1%
New York Giants-Offense	12	-4.6	65.4%	3%
Cincinnati Bengals-Offense	12	-5.7	65.9%	2.7%
Miami Dolphins-Offense	12	-7.2	67.2%	2.7%
Tennessee Titans-D	12	0.5	61.2%	2.6%
Green Bay Packers-Offense	12	2.1	60%	2.5%
Carolina Panthers-Offense	12	-1.6	62.5%	2.2%
Carolina Panthers-D	12	1.6	59.6%	1.8%
Indianapolis Colts-D	12	-0.4	61%	1.7%
Buffalo Bills-D	12	-2.2	62.1%	1.4%
Arizona Cardinals-Offense	12	-3.2	62.7%	1.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars-Offense	12	-3.7	62.6%	0.9%
Minnesota Vikings-D	12	-3.0	62.2%	0.9%
Oakland Raiders-D	12	2.6	58%	0.9%
Detroit Lions-Offense	12	1.2	58.9%	0.8%
Cleveland Browns-Offense	12	0.4	59.5%	0.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars-D	12	3.7	56.9%	0.6%
Chicago Bears-D	12	-0.4	59.8%	0.4%
New York Jets-Offense	12	-3.5	61.9%	0.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers-D	12	0.1	58.8%	-0.1%
Atlanta Falcons-D	12	4.7	55.5%	-0.1%
Dallas Cowboys-Offense	12	0.7	58.2%	-0.3%
Baltimore Ravens-D	12	-8.2	64.5%	-0.7%
Detroit Lions-D	12	-1.2	59.1%	-0.8%
Dallas Cowboys-D	12	-0.7	58.8%	-0.8%
Miami Dolphins-D	12	7.2	52.8%	-0.8%
Denver Broncos-Offense	12	0.9	57.1%	-1.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers-Offense	12	-0.1	57.8%	-1.3%
Philadelphia Eagles-Offense	12	-1.1	58.3%	-1.6%
Los Angeles Rams-D	12	-1.6	58.6%	-1.6%
New York Giants-D	12	4.6	53.8%	-1.8%
Houston Texans-Offense	12	-0.1	57%	-2.2%
Cleveland Browns-D	12	-0.4	57.1%	-2.3%
New England Patriots-D	12	-7.8	62.4%	-2.5%
Washington Redskins-D	12	4.8	53%	-2.5%
Green Bay Packers-D	12	-2.1	57.8%	-2.8%
Los Angeles Chargers-D	12	1.6	54.5%	-3.4%
Washington Redskins-Offense	12	-4.8	59.1%	-3.5%
Buffalo Bills-Offense	12	2.2	53.5%	-3.9%
Kansas City Chiefs-D	12	-4.8	58.3%	-4.4%
Denver Broncos-D	12	-0.9	55.2%	-4.5%
Cincinnati Bengals-D	12	5.7	49.8%	-5%
Minnesota Vikings-Offense	12	3.0	51.6%	-5.2%
Tennessee Titans-Offense	12	-0.5	54%	-5.4%
San Francisco 49ers-Offense	12	6.5	48.6%	-5.5%
Indianapolis Colts-Offense	12	0.4	52.6%	-6.1%
Seattle Seahawks-Offense	12	0.6	52.4%	-6.2%
Oakland Raiders-Offense	12	-2.6	54.8%	-6.2%
San Francisco 49ers-D	12	-6.5	56.4%	-7.5%
Baltimore Ravens-Offense	12	8.2	44.7%	-8.2%

Against San Francisco, only 3 teams so far this year have dropped back to pass at least 40 times: all three teams had Game Scripts of -15.0 or worse (Cincinnati, Green Bay, Carolina). The 49ers and Patriots are having very odd years. Both teams are 10-2, and you won’t find very many teams that are 10-2 that (1) have faced the second fewest passing attempts (as the 49ers do) or (2) rank second in pass attempts on offense (as the Patriots do). The Ravens are more “normal” in that they are run heavy and have a great record, but Baltimore is the first team since the ’09 Jets to run on over 55% of their plays through 12 games.

Tagged as: Game Scripts

{ 1 comment }