Five players from LSU and four players from Alabama were drafted in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft last night, the latest in a long line of draft dominance from two of the powerhouses of college football. In addition, another 6 players from the SEC had their names called during the first round: two from Georgia, two from Auburn, and one from both Florida and South Carolina. That gave the conference a record 15 players selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

The previous record for players from one conference getting selected in first round of an NFL Draft was 12, set by the ACC in 2006 and matched by the SEC in both 2013 and 2017. ^[1]If you wanted to be cheekyy, and I would expect nothing less out of you, the schools in the current SEC also had 13 players drafted in 2011… when there were 10 players from the SEC drafted in … Continue reading For as long as I can remember — and, assuredly, for longer than that — SEC fans have boasted about the football talent within its conference. At times, the reputation has exceeded the results. But in recent years, there’s no question that the draft has become dominated by the conference. How much more dominant is the SEC at the top of the NFL Draft relative to prior years?

Before we answer that, a brief technical note. We should note that conference has had two rounds of expansion in the modern era. Arkansas and South Carolina joined the SEC in 1992, with the Razorbacks coming from the SWC and the Gamecocks previously being independent. In 2012, Texas A&M and Missouri joined the conference, with both schools leaving behind the Big 12. So Ryan Tannehill never played a down in the SEC, but he played for a school now within that conference.

To measure SEC dominance in the NFL Draft, I looked at the first 32 picks ^[2]To control for years where there were fewer than 32 NFL teams. in each draft since 1967 (the beginning of the common draft). To keep the analysis in each Draft consistent — i.e., by looking at 14 schools each year — I recorded (1) how many players came from SEC schools, and (2) how many players came from Arkansas, South Carolina, Missouri, and Texas A&M in years where those schools were not in the SEC. The results are graphed below; the players from SEC schools are in blue, and I have added on top the players from non-SEC schools at the time that are now in the conference. As you can see, the SEC dominance is to some extent a modern phenomenon.

Here’s how that compares to the Big 10 — using the same criteria for including schools that were not always in the conference. As you can see, in recent years, the SEC has begun to pull away.

So what has been driving the increase in SEC players going to the NFL. Much of the reason is a change in culture and society that has made black athletes choose to attend the SEC instead of historically black colleges or other schools. During the 12-year period from 1967 to 1978, there were 59 players drafted — that’s about 6 per year — from schools that are not currently in major college football (i.e., the FBS). That includes 5 players from Grambling State like Frank Lewis of the Steelers that, had they been born 25 years later, might have decided to attend LSU. There are also 5 players from Jackson State like Walter Payton who might have attended Ole Miss or MSU, 7 players from Tennessee State like Too Tall Jones and Claude Humphrey that could have been Vols, and 4 players from Texas Southern (notably, Julius Adams and Ken Burrough) who might now be Aggies.  And schools like Texas A&M didn’t begin admitting black students until the ’60s, much less openly recruiting them, leaving guys like Gene Upshaw and several other first rounders to opt for schools like Texas A&I (now part of Texas A&M-Kingsville).

And, of course, this is to say nothing of players like Lionel Antoine, the third overall pick in the 1972 Draft. Antoine was born in Biloxi, Mississippi, making it about a two-to-four hour drive to get to Baton Rouge, Auburn, Tuscaloosa, or Starkville. Antoine chose to go to … Southern Illinois.  Or the overlooked players of yesteryear who might now have attended a major SEC school and become a high draft pick.  Isiah Robertson was a standout linebacker born in New Orleans who went to… Southern University in Baton Rouge.  Do you think he’d go there now, or LSU? Robertson still was dominant enough to be the 10th pick in the 1971 Draft, which is better than two of his Hall of Fame teammates at Southern.  Playing on defense with Robertson was Mel Blount, born in Vidalia, Georgia, who was a 3rd round pick in 1970. And in the same draft as Robertson was Harold Carmichael, born in Jacksonville — halfway between UF and UGA — who fell to the 7th round after his career at Southern.

So yes, the SEC now dominates the modern NFL Draft.  The reason why this hasn’t been the case for decades is a bit more complicated.