This week, a pair of Jets fans have weighed in on the contract standoff between Muhammad Wilkerson and the New York Jets. Jason at OverTheCap explained why it may be difficult for the two sides to get a true sense of Wilkerson’s market value. Jason points out that the 3-4 defensive end market is pretty weird: You have J.J. Watt at $16.67M per year, then a big drop to Calais Campbell at $11M per year, Jurrell Casey (who was a 4-3 DT when he signed his contract) at $9M per year, and then another big drop. After those three comes Jason Hatcher (also a hybrid 4-3 DT/3-4 DE player) at $6.88M, Desmond Bryant at $6.8M, and then Allen Bailey at $5M per year. And that’s it: no other 3-4 defensive end is making more than five million per year, while Wilkerson reportedly wants upwards of $14M per season. Perhaps we should also include Buffalo’s Kyle Williams — the Bills seemingly switch between a 3-4 and a 4-3 every month — who is making about $10M per year.

But there are three big problems when looking at these contracts and trying to structure a fair deal for Wilkerson, and all three point in Wilkerson’s favor.

• A number of the best 3-4 DEs are still on their rookie contracts.

• Some of the best 3-4 DEs are past their prime years, while Wilkerson is entering his prime. Since contracts pay for expected performance, looking at the contract of a Williams or Hatcher is not very helpful.

• The salary cap continues to rise: as Jason points out, there has been about a 19% increase in the salary cap since Campbell signed his deal.

Who are the best 3-4 DEs in the NFL? Watt stands in a league of his own. After that, you have a tier of players like Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Campbell, Fletcher Cox, Williams, and Jurrell Casey. Other players like Cameron Heyward and Cameron Jordan have had at least one great season over the last two years, too. But Wilkerson, Richardson, Cox, Heyward, and Jordan are all still on their rookie deals. That really leaves just Watt, Casey, and Campbell as potential starting points for discussion.

Watt is incomparable, and frankly, underpaid, so he’s not going to be much use as a point of comparison. Prior to 2012, Campbell signed a 5-year, $55M deal, and it looks like he’ll see every penny of that deal. He signed that contract a few months shy of his 26th birthday; Wilkerson turns 26 in October. As a result, that appear to be an ideal contract to use as a guide, other than the increase in the salary cap.

In 2012, the cap was $120.6M; in 2015, it is $143.28M. That’s an increase of 19%, and a commensurate increase in a $55M contract would bring it up to $65.3M over five years. That’s $13M a year. I’ll be honest in that I haven’t given it much thought whether there should be a linear increase in individual contracts based on the larger cap, but my guess is we’re in the right ball park.

Jurrell Casey signed a 4-year, $36M extension before the 2014 season. But the cap has already increased by nearly 8% since then, which would put that contract in 2015 dollars at $12.9M per year, right in line with what Campbell signed.

Of course, the next question is whether Wilkerson’s market value in 2015 is equal to that of Campbell in 2012 or Casey in 2014. Wilkerson has actually never made the Pro Bowl, but according to Pro Football Focus, he was the 2nd best 3-4 DE in 2012, the 14th best in 2013, and the 3rd best in 2014. And in 2013, only six defensive linemen — Robert Quinn, Watt, Gerald McCoy, Ndamukong Suh, Greg Hardy, and Dontari Poe — received more first-team All-Pro votes than Wilkerson from the Associated Press, so PFF’s rating of him that year may be misguided.

So we’ve got a player who appears to be, at a minimum, a top-5 player at his position, and arguably a top-3 player. That seems to be no worse than Casey was this time last year, and probably ahead of where Campbell was three years ago. ^[1]Campbell had a breakout season in 2011, but was still lacking in both peak production and track record. Obviously the Cardinals knew what they were doing, though. So from a market value standpoint, I don’t see Wilkerson demanding $13M/year as unreasonable, and $14M is also justifiable as an extension (say, a 5-year, $70M extension on top of the 1-year, $7M deal he has for 2015, brings the overall average per year down to $12.8M).

Joe Caporoso also wrote about the Wilkerson situation at his site, TurnOnTheJets. Joe argues that this should be a no-brainer: Wilkerson is 25 and one of the best defensive players in the NFL. You want to do everything you can to keep players like that. And I agree.

Let’s look at some recent contracts by other defensive lineman. We know the Dolphins just paid out the nose for Suh, who has an average per year of $19.0M on his deal. Gerald McCoy is probably a better comp for Wilkerson: he signed a massive extension in the middle of last season, a 7-year extension worth $98M (or $14M/yr). But that was an extension, so his contract value is $13.6M. McCoy is probably a hair better than Wilkerson, which again brings us back to around the $13M a year range for him (although that contract was signed before we knew how much the cap would increase in 2015).

There are two other factors at play here. One is the idea that the Jets should treat Wilkerson properly. After all, New York got a dominant player for a cap hit of $1.6M in 2012, $1.9M in 2013, and $2.2M in 2014. Even if they overpay him by a million a year now, they’re still well ahead of the game over the life of his deal. Now that kind of logic can quickly land a team in cap hell, but it’s also important to show your young players that great play will be rewarded. The Jets just gave David Harris a 3-year, $21.5M contract extension with $15M guaranteed: that contract was insane, and to overpay Harris and then let Wilkerson walk would be to double down on stupidity.

Geno Atkins signed a five-year, $54.75M extension before the 2013 season; in today’s cap dollars, that’s equal to $12.8M per year. That again keeps bringing us into the world of about $13M per year for Wilkerson’s extension. But there is that one other factor at play: the Jets depth at defensive end.

Would New York be willing to trade Wilkerson, given that the Jets have Richardson and Southern Cal’s Leonard Williams as potential 3-4 DEs for years to come? Will the pick of Williams cause the Jets to take a hard stance during negotiations? That’s the big variable here. Williams won’t impact Wilkerson’s market value, of course, but he may impact the Jets desire to pay Wilkerson that market value. Wilkerson, Richardson, and Williams can co-exist, but don’t expect to see all three on the field all that often.

I don’t know what the Jets will do here, although it feels like the front office isn’t nearly as high on Wilkerson as it should be (or, perhaps phrased differently, as the Jets last two general managers and Rex Ryan). Would it be silly to pay Wilkerson a huge contract and then only have him on the field for 70% of the snaps? Probably not, although it may not be the ideal situation, either. Still, if I was the Jets, I’d worry about cutting corners in other places, and pay guys like Wilkerson (and Richardson in a couple of years) what they’re worth.