As you know by now, Tom Brady has been suspended for the first four games of the season. This seems to have sparked outrage among everybody because that is what we do in 2015. But let’s try to take a logical approach to things.

Do you think the Patriots intentionally deflated footballs?

The answer to this one seems to be almost certainly yes. The numbers bear that out, as does the very lengthy Wells Report. There has been some confusion about the Wells Report findings, so let’s try to clear that up now.

What exactly did the NFL ask Wells and his team to do? To “conduct an investigation… pursuant to the Policy on Integrity of the Game & Enforcement of Competitive Rules.” The very first footnote in the Wells report reads

Under the Policy, the “standard of proof required to find that a violation of the competitive rules has occurred” is a “Preponderance of the Evidence,” meaning that “as a whole, the fact sought to be proved is more probable than not.”

So the NFL asked Wells to determine if it was more probable than not that the Patriots violated the rules. Here was Wells’ conclusion:

For the reasons described in this Report, and after a comprehensive investigation, we have concluded that, in connection with the AFC Championship Game, it is more probable than not that New England Patriots personnel participated in violations of the Playing Rules and were involved in a deliberate effort to circumvent the rules.

Wells’ report did not say he thought there was a 51% chance the Patriots violated the rules. In reading the report, it seems pretty clear that Wells thought it very likely that the Patriots violated the rules. But that wasn’t the question he was asked. He was asked if he thought it was more probable than not that the Patriots deliberately circumvented the rules, and to that he answered in the affirmative. At this point, I don’t see any rational argument to be made to the contrary, given the duration and depth of Wells’ investigation. Sure, it’s theoretically possible that the Patriots did not intentionally cheat, but that seems to be very unlikely.

Okay, let’s assume the Patriots intentionally circumvented the rules. How likely is it that Brady knew about it?

Exceedingly, based on my source common sense. To think otherwise would be to believe that low-level Patriots employees were tampering with the footballs Tom Brady would use in a playoff game. That would obviously be a fireable offense — it sounds like the football version of treason! It’s well-documented that Brady, like many other quarterbacks, is particular about the air pressure in his footballs. To think that Patriots employees would be deflating footballs without Brady’s knowledge would mean you have to think that either (1) they were trying to sabotage the Patriots, but messed up because they thought Brady liked his footballs overinflated; or (2) they heard throught he grapevine that Brady liked his footballs deflated and decided to go ahead and help him out without him knowing.

It seems infinitely more plausible that Brady just told them what he wanted and they listened, like pretty much every other person in the Patriots organization would have done. The fact that Brady claimed to not know McNally was found by Wells to be implausible, and given the cell phone records, it is hard to reach any other conclusion.

Okay, let’s assume Brady asked the Patriots employees to help him circumvent the rules. Who cares? It’s about the air pressure in the football.

Well, the NFL cares. And given the Patriots history and the general uncooperative nature of the investigation, I don’t think Goodell was looking for reasons to be sympathetic to New England here. NFL punishments are random, but it seems as though suspending a player for four games for tampering with a football before a playoff game could be viewed as a pretty light punishment.

Now, I don’t know what the benefit is to deflating the football before a game. Did it increase New England’s win probability by 1%? 5%? We’re speaking about pre-game win probabilities here, since nothing short of turning the football into a pancake could have changed how that particular game unfolded (and maybe not even that). But if you think about this in terms of Super Bowl win probability, how much of an impact is missing the first four games of the regular season?

Everybody hates Roger Goodell ^[1]This would be a pretty good band name, I think., but I don’t think he had a lot of wiggle room here. His independent investigator determined that he thought the Patriots cheated, and common sense tells you that if the Patriots were cheating, Brady knew about it. If every there was a time to suspend a player, I would think unleveling the playing field in a playoff game is a pretty good time to do it.