Titans-Jaguars Was The Least-Conforming Game of 2017 Through 11 Weeks

by Chase Stuart on November 22, 2017

in Checkdowns, Statgeekery

Every year, I look at the least-conforming games in the NFL. What do I mean by least-conforming? Well, let’s use the Titans trip to Jacksonville in week 2 this season as an example. Tennessee has an SRS of -5.1 this year, while the Jaguars have an SRS of +9.3. Given that the game was in Jacksonville, we would expect the Titans to lose by 17.4 points, assuming 3 points for the home team. In reality, the Titans won by 21 points, a swing of 38.4 points! That was the “weirdest” game of the year.

The Titans were also in the second least-conforming game of the season. Facing a Deshaun Watson Texans team, the Titans traveled to Houston and lost by a whopping 43 points. The Texans — thanks in part, of course, to several non-Watson games — have an SRS of -0.4. So at home against Tennessee, we would have expected the aveage Texans team to win b 7.8 points, not 43 points. That difference of 35.2 was one of just three games where the difference between the actual result and expected result exceeded 30 points.

The table below shows every game from the 2017 season through 11 weeks:

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Week	Team	H/R	Opponent	PF	PA	Diff	Tm SRS	Opp SRS	Exp Res	Diff
2	Tennessee Titans	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	37	16	21	-5.1	9.3	-17.4	38.4
4	Houston Texans		Tennessee Titans	57	14	43	-0.4	-5.1	7.8	35.2
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	N	Baltimore Ravens	44	7	37	9.3	3.2	6.1	30.9
2	Denver Broncos		Dallas Cowboys	42	17	25	-7.2	0.1	-4.3	29.3
8	Baltimore Ravens		Miami Dolphins	40	0	40	3.2	-9.3	15.5	24.5
7	Dallas Cowboys	@	San Francisco 49ers	40	10	30	0.1	-8.9	6.0	24.0
10	New Orleans Saints	@	Buffalo Bills	47	10	37	11.1	-5.1	13.2	23.8
2	Oakland Raiders		New York Jets	45	20	25	-4.9	-4.8	2.8	22.2
11	Baltimore Ravens	@	Green Bay Packers	23	0	23	3.2	-0.9	1.1	21.9
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	30	9	21	9.3	6.6	-0.3	21.3

Showing 1 to 10 of 320 entries

Here are the individual SRS ratings, along with each team’s “variance” in their 10 games. This is simple the average amount by which their games differed from the expected result. The three most inconsistent teams this year have been the Jaguars, Cowboys, and Rams, while the Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns have been the three most consistent teams. Take that, consistency-worshipers!

Search:

Var Rk	SRS Rk	Team	G	MOV	SOS	SRS	Variance
25	1	Philadelphia Eagles	10	13.2	-1.4	11.8	7.3
15	4	New Orleans Saints	10	10.3	0.8	11.1	9.7
3	3	Los Angeles Rams	10	12.0	-1.4	10.6	14.0
1	2	Jacksonville Jaguars	10	10.7	-1.4	9.3	15.4
11	5	New England Patriots	10	8.4	0.6	9.0	10.1
26	6	Minnesota Vikings	10	6.0	2.1	8.1	7.0
6	7	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	6.8	-0.2	6.6	11.1
12	8	Kansas City Chiefs	10	4.8	1.2	6.0	10.1
19	9	Carolina Panthers	10	3.3	1.0	4.3	8.7
28	10	Detroit Lions	10	3.7	0.4	4.1	6.2
4	11	Baltimore Ravens	10	4.5	-1.3	3.2	13.9
24	13	Atlanta Falcons	10	2.7	-0.3	2.4	8.2
20	14	Los Angeles Chargers	10	2.5	-0.5	2.0	8.5
18	12	Washington Redskins	10	-2.8	4.7	1.9	8.7
23	15	Seattle Seahawks	10	4.3	-2.6	1.7	8.3
2	17	Dallas Cowboys	10	0.0	0.1	0.1	14.3
9	16	Houston Texans	10	-0.1	-0.3	-0.4	10.4
22	18	Green Bay Packers	10	-3.2	2.3	-0.9	8.4
10	19	Chicago Bears	10	-5.3	3.5	-1.8	10.2
29	20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	-2.5	-0.3	-2.8	6.1
30	22	Cincinnati Bengals	10	-2.4	-2.1	-4.5	5.8
27	23	New York Jets	10	-2.1	-2.7	-4.8	6.8
14	25	Oakland Raiders	10	-4.0	-0.9	-4.9	9.7
5	21	Tennessee Titans	10	-3.1	-2.0	-5.1	12.7
7	24	Buffalo Bills	10	-4.2	-0.9	-5.1	10.7
8	26	New York Giants	10	-8.5	1.7	-6.8	10.5
13	27	Denver Broncos	10	-8.2	1.0	-7.2	10.0
31	28	Arizona Cardinals	10	-7.5	-0.4	-7.9	5.2
16	30	San Francisco 49ers	10	-8.6	-0.3	-8.9	9.6
17	29	Miami Dolphins	10	-9.4	0.1	-9.3	9.3
32	31	Cleveland Browns	10	-11.2	0.5	-10.7	4.9
21	32	Indianapolis Colts	10	-10.1	-0.9	-11.0	8.4

What stands out to you?

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