Titans-Jaguars Was The Least-Conforming Game of 2017 Through 11 Weeks

by Chase Stuart on November 22, 2017

in Checkdowns, Statgeekery

Every year, I look at the least-conforming games in the NFL. What do I mean by least-conforming? Well, let’s use the Titans trip to Jacksonville in week 2 this season as an example. Tennessee has an SRS of -5.1 this year, while the Jaguars have an SRS of +9.3. Given that the game was in Jacksonville, we would expect the Titans to lose by 17.4 points, assuming 3 points for the home team. In reality, the Titans won by 21 points, a swing of 38.4 points! That was the “weirdest” game of the year.

The Titans were also in the second least-conforming game of the season. Facing a Deshaun Watson Texans team, the Titans traveled to Houston and lost by a whopping 43 points. The Texans — thanks in part, of course, to several non-Watson games — have an SRS of -0.4. So at home against Tennessee, we would have expected the aveage Texans team to win b 7.8 points, not 43 points. That difference of 35.2 was one of just three games where the difference between the actual result and expected result exceeded 30 points.

The table below shows every game from the 2017 season through 11 weeks:

Week	Team	H/R	Opponent	PF	PA	Diff	Tm SRS	Opp SRS	Exp Res	Diff
2	Tennessee Titans	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	37	16	21	-5.1	9.3	-17.4	38.4
4	Houston Texans		Tennessee Titans	57	14	43	-0.4	-5.1	7.8	35.2
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	N	Baltimore Ravens	44	7	37	9.3	3.2	6.1	30.9
2	Denver Broncos		Dallas Cowboys	42	17	25	-7.2	0.1	-4.3	29.3
8	Baltimore Ravens		Miami Dolphins	40	0	40	3.2	-9.3	15.5	24.5
7	Dallas Cowboys	@	San Francisco 49ers	40	10	30	0.1	-8.9	6.0	24.0
10	New Orleans Saints	@	Buffalo Bills	47	10	37	11.1	-5.1	13.2	23.8
2	Oakland Raiders		New York Jets	45	20	25	-4.9	-4.8	2.8	22.2
11	Baltimore Ravens	@	Green Bay Packers	23	0	23	3.2	-0.9	1.1	21.9
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	30	9	21	9.3	6.6	-0.3	21.3
2	New England Patriots	@	New Orleans Saints	36	20	16	9.0	11.1	-5.1	21.1
1	Kansas City Chiefs	@	New England Patriots	42	27	15	6.0	9.0	-6.0	21.0
4	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Cleveland Browns	31	7	24	-4.5	-10.7	3.1	20.9
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Chicago Bears	29	7	22	-2.8	-1.8	2.0	20.0
11	Los Angeles Chargers		Buffalo Bills	54	24	30	2.0	-5.1	10.2	19.8
9	Indianapolis Colts	@	Houston Texans	20	14	6	-11.0	-0.4	-13.7	19.7
9	Los Angeles Rams	@	New York Giants	51	17	34	10.6	-6.8	14.4	19.6
11	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Dallas Cowboys	37	9	28	11.8	0.1	8.7	19.3
8	Dallas Cowboys	@	Washington Redskins	33	19	14	0.1	1.9	-4.8	18.8
2	Washington Redskins	@	Los Angeles Rams	27	20	7	1.9	10.6	-11.7	18.7
3	New York Giants	@	Philadelphia Eagles	24	27	-3	-6.8	11.8	-21.5	18.5
5	Seattle Seahawks	@	Los Angeles Rams	16	10	6	1.7	10.6	-11.9	17.9
6	Miami Dolphins	@	Atlanta Falcons	20	17	3	-9.3	2.4	-14.8	17.8
3	New Orleans Saints	@	Carolina Panthers	34	13	21	11.1	4.3	3.7	17.3
8	Buffalo Bills		Oakland Raiders	34	14	20	-5.1	-4.9	2.8	17.2
4	Green Bay Packers		Chicago Bears	35	14	21	-0.9	-1.8	3.8	17.2
7	Chicago Bears		Carolina Panthers	17	3	14	-1.8	4.3	-3.1	17.1
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Baltimore Ravens	26	9	17	6.6	3.2	0.4	16.6
4	Buffalo Bills	@	Atlanta Falcons	23	17	6	-5.1	2.4	-10.6	16.6
11	Minnesota Vikings		Los Angeles Rams	24	7	17	8.1	10.6	0.5	16.5
2	Miami Dolphins	@	Los Angeles Chargers	19	17	2	-9.3	2.0	-14.4	16.4
2	Pittsburgh Steelers		Minnesota Vikings	26	9	17	6.6	8.1	1.4	15.6
6	New York Giants	@	Denver Broncos	23	10	13	-6.8	-7.2	-2.5	15.5
1	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Houston Texans	29	7	22	9.3	-0.4	6.7	15.3
1	Baltimore Ravens	@	Cincinnati Bengals	20	0	20	3.2	-4.5	4.7	15.3
10	Atlanta Falcons		Dallas Cowboys	27	7	20	2.4	0.1	5.3	14.7
3	San Francisco 49ers		Los Angeles Rams	39	41	-2	-8.9	10.6	-16.5	14.5
7	Los Angeles Rams	N	Arizona Cardinals	33	0	33	10.6	-7.9	18.5	14.5
4	New York Jets		Jacksonville Jaguars	23	20	3	-4.8	9.3	-11.1	14.1
4	Detroit Lions	@	Minnesota Vikings	14	7	7	4.1	8.1	-7.0	14.0
9	Dallas Cowboys		Kansas City Chiefs	28	17	11	0.1	6.0	-2.9	13.9
3	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Los Angeles Chargers	24	10	14	6.0	2.0	1.0	13.0
1	Oakland Raiders	@	Tennessee Titans	26	16	10	-4.9	-5.1	-2.8	12.8
11	New York Giants		Kansas City Chiefs	12	9	3	-6.8	6.0	-9.8	12.8
1	Los Angeles Rams		Indianapolis Colts	46	9	37	10.6	-11.0	24.6	12.4
4	Seattle Seahawks		Indianapolis Colts	46	18	28	1.7	-11.0	15.7	12.3
10	Los Angeles Rams		Houston Texans	33	7	26	10.6	-0.4	14.0	12.0
9	Arizona Cardinals	@	San Francisco 49ers	20	10	10	-7.9	-8.9	-2.0	12.0
6	San Francisco 49ers	@	Washington Redskins	24	26	-2	-8.9	1.9	-13.8	11.8
10	New England Patriots	@	Denver Broncos	41	16	25	9.0	-7.2	13.2	11.8
6	Los Angeles Rams	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	27	17	10	10.6	9.3	-1.7	11.7
10	Indianapolis Colts		Pittsburgh Steelers	17	20	-3	-11.0	6.6	-14.6	11.6
7	Seattle Seahawks	@	New York Giants	24	7	17	1.7	-6.8	5.5	11.5
3	Chicago Bears		Pittsburgh Steelers	23	17	6	-1.8	6.6	-5.3	11.3
1	Cleveland Browns		Pittsburgh Steelers	18	21	-3	-10.7	6.6	-14.2	11.2
11	New England Patriots	N	Oakland Raiders	33	8	25	9.0	-4.9	13.9	11.1
6	Chicago Bears	@	Baltimore Ravens	27	24	3	-1.8	3.2	-8.0	11.0
9	Detroit Lions	@	Green Bay Packers	30	17	13	4.1	-0.9	2.1	10.9
4	Carolina Panthers	@	New England Patriots	33	30	3	4.3	9.0	-7.6	10.6
2	San Francisco 49ers	@	Seattle Seahawks	9	12	-3	-8.9	1.7	-13.6	10.6
1	Minnesota Vikings		New Orleans Saints	29	19	10	8.1	11.1	0.1	9.9
8	Carolina Panthers	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17	3	14	4.3	-2.8	4.2	9.8
3	Tennessee Titans		Seattle Seahawks	33	27	6	-5.1	1.7	-3.8	9.8
1	Carolina Panthers	@	San Francisco 49ers	23	3	20	4.3	-8.9	10.2	9.8
2	Kansas City Chiefs		Philadelphia Eagles	27	20	7	6.0	11.8	-2.8	9.8
7	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Indianapolis Colts	27	0	27	9.3	-11.0	17.3	9.7
9	New York Jets		Buffalo Bills	34	21	13	-4.8	-5.1	3.4	9.6
3	Houston Texans	@	New England Patriots	33	36	-3	-0.4	9.0	-12.3	9.3
1	Denver Broncos		Los Angeles Chargers	24	21	3	-7.2	2.0	-6.3	9.3
10	Green Bay Packers	@	Chicago Bears	23	16	7	-0.9	-1.8	-2.2	9.2
10	San Francisco 49ers		New York Giants	31	21	10	-8.9	-6.8	0.9	9.1
11	Washington Redskins	@	New Orleans Saints	31	34	-3	1.9	11.1	-12.1	9.1
7	Oakland Raiders		Kansas City Chiefs	31	30	1	-4.9	6.0	-8.0	9.0
3	Atlanta Falcons	@	Detroit Lions	30	26	4	2.4	4.1	-4.7	8.7
7	Los Angeles Chargers		Denver Broncos	21	0	21	2.0	-7.2	12.3	8.7
8	Indianapolis Colts	@	Cincinnati Bengals	23	24	-1	-11.0	-4.5	-9.5	8.5
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Kansas City Chiefs	19	13	6	6.6	6.0	-2.4	8.4
11	Pittsburgh Steelers		Tennessee Titans	40	17	23	6.6	-5.1	14.7	8.3
9	Tennessee Titans		Baltimore Ravens	23	20	3	-5.1	3.2	-5.3	8.3
5	Green Bay Packers	@	Dallas Cowboys	35	31	4	-0.9	0.1	-4.0	8.0
5	Baltimore Ravens	@	Oakland Raiders	30	17	13	3.2	-4.9	5.1	7.9
8	Chicago Bears	@	New Orleans Saints	12	20	-8	-1.8	11.1	-15.8	7.8
1	Green Bay Packers		Seattle Seahawks	17	9	8	-0.9	1.7	0.4	7.6
10	Carolina Panthers		Miami Dolphins	45	21	24	4.3	-9.3	16.7	7.3
10	Los Angeles Chargers	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	17	20	-3	2.0	9.3	-10.3	7.3
5	Miami Dolphins		Tennessee Titans	16	10	6	-9.3	-5.1	-1.2	7.2
3	Washington Redskins		Oakland Raiders	27	10	17	1.9	-4.9	9.9	7.1
6	Arizona Cardinals		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	38	33	5	-7.9	-2.8	-2.1	7.1
11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Miami Dolphins	30	20	10	-2.8	-9.3	3.5	6.5
2	Buffalo Bills	@	Carolina Panthers	3	9	-6	-5.1	4.3	-12.5	6.5
7	New England Patriots		Atlanta Falcons	23	7	16	9.0	2.4	9.5	6.5
3	New York Jets		Miami Dolphins	20	6	14	-4.8	-9.3	7.6	6.4
1	Buffalo Bills		New York Jets	21	12	9	-5.1	-4.8	2.6	6.4
8	Denver Broncos	@	Kansas City Chiefs	19	29	-10	-7.2	6.0	-16.3	6.3
1	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Washington Redskins	30	17	13	11.8	1.9	6.8	6.2
1	Dallas Cowboys		New York Giants	19	3	16	0.1	-6.8	9.9	6.1
2	Detroit Lions	@	New York Giants	24	10	14	4.1	-6.8	7.9	6.1
3	Dallas Cowboys	@	Arizona Cardinals	28	17	11	0.1	-7.9	5.0	6.0
9	Philadelphia Eagles		Denver Broncos	51	23	28	11.8	-7.2	22.0	6.0
5	Carolina Panthers	@	Detroit Lions	27	24	3	4.3	4.1	-2.8	5.8
9	Washington Redskins	@	Seattle Seahawks	17	14	3	1.9	1.7	-2.8	5.8
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Detroit Lions	20	15	5	6.6	4.1	-0.6	5.6
4	Denver Broncos		Oakland Raiders	16	10	6	-7.2	-4.9	0.7	5.3
11	Atlanta Falcons	@	Seattle Seahawks	34	31	3	2.4	1.7	-2.3	5.3
6	Tennessee Titans		Indianapolis Colts	36	22	14	-5.1	-11.0	8.9	5.1
4	New York Giants	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23	25	-2	-6.8	-2.8	-6.9	4.9
11	Cleveland Browns		Jacksonville Jaguars	7	19	-12	-10.7	9.3	-16.9	4.9
3	Buffalo Bills		Denver Broncos	26	16	10	-5.1	-7.2	5.1	4.9
10	Minnesota Vikings	@	Washington Redskins	38	30	8	8.1	1.9	3.2	4.8
1	Atlanta Falcons	@	Chicago Bears	23	17	6	2.4	-1.8	1.2	4.8
4	Los Angeles Chargers		Philadelphia Eagles	24	26	-2	2.0	11.8	-6.7	4.7
5	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Houston Texans	42	34	8	6.0	-0.4	3.4	4.6
2	Atlanta Falcons		Green Bay Packers	34	23	11	2.4	-0.9	6.4	4.6
7	Miami Dolphins		New York Jets	31	28	3	-9.3	-4.8	-1.6	4.6
5	Philadelphia Eagles		Arizona Cardinals	34	7	27	11.8	-7.9	22.6	4.4
6	New Orleans Saints		Detroit Lions	52	38	14	11.1	4.1	9.9	4.1
5	Chicago Bears		Minnesota Vikings	17	20	-3	-1.8	8.1	-6.9	3.9
10	Cleveland Browns	@	Detroit Lions	24	38	-14	-10.7	4.1	-17.8	3.8
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		New England Patriots	14	19	-5	-2.8	9.0	-8.8	3.8
6	New York Jets		New England Patriots	17	24	-7	-4.8	9.0	-10.7	3.7
3	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Green Bay Packers	24	27	-3	-4.5	-0.9	-6.6	3.6
11	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Denver Broncos	20	17	3	-4.5	-7.2	-0.3	3.3
9	New Orleans Saints		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30	10	20	11.1	-2.8	16.9	3.1
3	Minnesota Vikings		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	34	17	17	8.1	-2.8	13.9	3.1
1	Arizona Cardinals	@	Detroit Lions	23	35	-12	-7.9	4.1	-15.0	3.0
6	Oakland Raiders		Los Angeles Chargers	16	17	-1	-4.9	2.0	-4.0	3.0
2	Arizona Cardinals	@	Indianapolis Colts	16	13	3	-7.9	-11.0	0.2	2.8
7	Washington Redskins	@	Philadelphia Eagles	24	34	-10	1.9	11.8	-12.8	2.8
2	Cleveland Browns	@	Baltimore Ravens	10	24	-14	-10.7	3.2	-16.8	2.8
2	Houston Texans	@	Cincinnati Bengals	13	9	4	-0.4	-4.5	1.2	2.8
6	Houston Texans		Cleveland Browns	33	17	16	-0.4	-10.7	13.3	2.7
4	Dallas Cowboys		Los Angeles Rams	30	35	-5	0.1	10.6	-7.5	2.5
7	Buffalo Bills		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30	27	3	-5.1	-2.8	0.7	2.3
5	Indianapolis Colts		San Francisco 49ers	26	23	3	-11.0	-8.9	0.9	2.1
8	Houston Texans	@	Seattle Seahawks	38	41	-3	-0.4	1.7	-5.1	2.1
8	Los Angeles Chargers	@	New England Patriots	13	21	-8	2.0	9.0	-9.9	1.9
4	Kansas City Chiefs		Washington Redskins	29	20	9	6.0	1.9	7.1	1.9
9	Atlanta Falcons	@	Carolina Panthers	17	20	-3	2.4	4.3	-4.9	1.9
8	Cleveland Browns	N	Minnesota Vikings	16	33	-17	-10.7	8.1	-18.8	1.8
9	Oakland Raiders	@	Miami Dolphins	27	24	3	-4.9	-9.3	1.4	1.6
10	Tennessee Titans		Cincinnati Bengals	24	20	4	-5.1	-4.5	2.4	1.6
4	San Francisco 49ers	@	Arizona Cardinals	15	18	-3	-8.9	-7.9	-4.0	1.0
6	Minnesota Vikings		Green Bay Packers	23	10	13	8.1	-0.9	12.1	0.9
7	Pittsburgh Steelers		Cincinnati Bengals	29	14	15	6.6	-4.5	14.1	0.9
9	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	23	-16	-4.5	9.3	-16.8	0.8
8	Atlanta Falcons	@	New York Jets	25	20	5	2.4	-4.8	4.2	0.8
5	New York Giants		Los Angeles Chargers	22	27	-5	-6.8	2.0	-5.8	0.8
8	San Francisco 49ers	@	Philadelphia Eagles	10	33	-23	-8.9	11.8	-23.7	0.7
6	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Carolina Panthers	28	23	5	11.8	4.3	4.4	0.6
10	Arizona Cardinals		Seattle Seahawks	16	22	-6	-7.9	1.7	-6.6	0.6
11	Arizona Cardinals	@	Houston Texans	21	31	-10	-7.9	-0.4	-10.5	0.5
7	Tennessee Titans	@	Cleveland Browns	12	9	3	-5.1	-10.7	2.5	0.5
5	Cincinnati Bengals		Buffalo Bills	20	16	4	-4.5	-5.1	3.6	0.4
4	Miami Dolphins	N	New Orleans Saints	0	20	-20	-9.3	11.1	-20.4	0.4
3	Indianapolis Colts		Cleveland Browns	31	28	3	-11.0	-10.7	2.6	0.4
5	New York Jets	@	Cleveland Browns	17	14	3	-4.8	-10.7	2.9	0.1
11	Detroit Lions	@	Chicago Bears	27	24	3	4.1	-1.8	2.9	0.1
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		New York Jets	15	10	5	-2.8	-4.8	4.9	0.1
7	Minnesota Vikings		Baltimore Ravens	24	16	8	8.1	3.2	8.0	0.0
7	New Orleans Saints	@	Green Bay Packers	26	17	9	11.1	-0.9	9.0	0.0
7	Green Bay Packers		New Orleans Saints	17	26	-9	-0.9	11.1	-9.0	0.0
7	Baltimore Ravens	@	Minnesota Vikings	16	24	-8	3.2	8.1	-8.0	0.0
10	New York Jets	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	15	-5	-4.8	-2.8	-4.9	-0.1
11	Chicago Bears		Detroit Lions	24	27	-3	-1.8	4.1	-2.9	-0.1
5	Cleveland Browns		New York Jets	14	17	-3	-10.7	-4.8	-2.9	-0.1
3	Cleveland Browns	@	Indianapolis Colts	28	31	-3	-10.7	-11.0	-2.6	-0.4
4	New Orleans Saints	N	Miami Dolphins	20	0	20	11.1	-9.3	20.4	-0.4
5	Buffalo Bills	@	Cincinnati Bengals	16	20	-4	-5.1	-4.5	-3.6	-0.4
7	Cleveland Browns		Tennessee Titans	9	12	-3	-10.7	-5.1	-2.5	-0.5
11	Houston Texans		Arizona Cardinals	31	21	10	-0.4	-7.9	10.5	-0.5
10	Seattle Seahawks	@	Arizona Cardinals	22	16	6	1.7	-7.9	6.6	-0.6
6	Carolina Panthers		Philadelphia Eagles	23	28	-5	4.3	11.8	-4.4	-0.6
8	Philadelphia Eagles		San Francisco 49ers	33	10	23	11.8	-8.9	23.7	-0.7
5	Los Angeles Chargers	@	New York Giants	27	22	5	2.0	-6.8	5.8	-0.8
8	New York Jets		Atlanta Falcons	20	25	-5	-4.8	2.4	-4.2	-0.8
9	Jacksonville Jaguars		Cincinnati Bengals	23	7	16	9.3	-4.5	16.8	-0.8
7	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	29	-15	-4.5	6.6	-14.1	-0.9
6	Green Bay Packers	@	Minnesota Vikings	10	23	-13	-0.9	8.1	-12.1	-0.9
4	Arizona Cardinals		San Francisco 49ers	18	15	3	-7.9	-8.9	4.0	-1.0
10	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Tennessee Titans	20	24	-4	-4.5	-5.1	-2.4	-1.6
9	Miami Dolphins		Oakland Raiders	24	27	-3	-9.3	-4.9	-1.4	-1.6
8	Minnesota Vikings	N	Cleveland Browns	33	16	17	8.1	-10.7	18.8	-1.8
9	Carolina Panthers		Atlanta Falcons	20	17	3	4.3	2.4	4.9	-1.9
4	Washington Redskins	@	Kansas City Chiefs	20	29	-9	1.9	6.0	-7.1	-1.9
8	New England Patriots		Los Angeles Chargers	21	13	8	9.0	2.0	9.9	-1.9
8	Seattle Seahawks		Houston Texans	41	38	3	1.7	-0.4	5.1	-2.1
5	San Francisco 49ers	@	Indianapolis Colts	23	26	-3	-8.9	-11.0	-0.9	-2.1
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Buffalo Bills	27	30	-3	-2.8	-5.1	-0.7	-2.3
4	Los Angeles Rams	@	Dallas Cowboys	35	30	5	10.6	0.1	7.5	-2.5
6	Cleveland Browns	@	Houston Texans	17	33	-16	-10.7	-0.4	-13.3	-2.7
2	Cincinnati Bengals		Houston Texans	9	13	-4	-4.5	-0.4	-1.2	-2.8
2	Baltimore Ravens		Cleveland Browns	24	10	14	3.2	-10.7	16.8	-2.8
7	Philadelphia Eagles		Washington Redskins	34	24	10	11.8	1.9	12.8	-2.8
2	Indianapolis Colts		Arizona Cardinals	13	16	-3	-11.0	-7.9	-0.2	-2.8
6	Los Angeles Chargers	@	Oakland Raiders	17	16	1	2.0	-4.9	4.0	-3.0
1	Detroit Lions		Arizona Cardinals	35	23	12	4.1	-7.9	15.0	-3.0
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Minnesota Vikings	17	34	-17	-2.8	8.1	-13.9	-3.1
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	New Orleans Saints	10	30	-20	-2.8	11.1	-16.9	-3.1
11	Denver Broncos		Cincinnati Bengals	17	20	-3	-7.2	-4.5	0.3	-3.3
3	Green Bay Packers		Cincinnati Bengals	27	24	3	-0.9	-4.5	6.6	-3.6
6	New England Patriots	@	New York Jets	24	17	7	9.0	-4.8	10.7	-3.7
5	New England Patriots	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19	14	5	9.0	-2.8	8.8	-3.8
10	Detroit Lions		Cleveland Browns	38	24	14	4.1	-10.7	17.8	-3.8
5	Minnesota Vikings	@	Chicago Bears	20	17	3	8.1	-1.8	6.9	-3.9
6	Detroit Lions	@	New Orleans Saints	38	52	-14	4.1	11.1	-9.9	-4.1
5	Arizona Cardinals	@	Philadelphia Eagles	7	34	-27	-7.9	11.8	-22.6	-4.4
7	New York Jets	@	Miami Dolphins	28	31	-3	-4.8	-9.3	1.6	-4.6
2	Green Bay Packers	@	Atlanta Falcons	23	34	-11	-0.9	2.4	-6.4	-4.6
5	Houston Texans		Kansas City Chiefs	34	42	-8	-0.4	6.0	-3.4	-4.6
4	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Los Angeles Chargers	26	24	2	11.8	2.0	6.7	-4.7
1	Chicago Bears		Atlanta Falcons	17	23	-6	-1.8	2.4	-1.2	-4.8
10	Washington Redskins		Minnesota Vikings	30	38	-8	1.9	8.1	-3.2	-4.8
3	Denver Broncos	@	Buffalo Bills	16	26	-10	-7.2	-5.1	-5.1	-4.9
11	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Cleveland Browns	19	7	12	9.3	-10.7	16.9	-4.9
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		New York Giants	25	23	2	-2.8	-6.8	6.9	-4.9
6	Indianapolis Colts	@	Tennessee Titans	22	36	-14	-11.0	-5.1	-8.9	-5.1
11	Seattle Seahawks		Atlanta Falcons	31	34	-3	1.7	2.4	2.3	-5.3
4	Oakland Raiders	@	Denver Broncos	10	16	-6	-4.9	-7.2	-0.7	-5.3
8	Detroit Lions		Pittsburgh Steelers	15	20	-5	4.1	6.6	0.6	-5.6
9	Seattle Seahawks		Washington Redskins	14	17	-3	1.7	1.9	2.8	-5.8
5	Detroit Lions		Carolina Panthers	24	27	-3	4.1	4.3	2.8	-5.8
9	Denver Broncos	@	Philadelphia Eagles	23	51	-28	-7.2	11.8	-22.0	-6.0
3	Arizona Cardinals		Dallas Cowboys	17	28	-11	-7.9	0.1	-5.0	-6.0
2	New York Giants		Detroit Lions	10	24	-14	-6.8	4.1	-7.9	-6.1
1	New York Giants	@	Dallas Cowboys	3	19	-16	-6.8	0.1	-9.9	-6.1
1	Washington Redskins		Philadelphia Eagles	17	30	-13	1.9	11.8	-6.8	-6.2
8	Kansas City Chiefs		Denver Broncos	29	19	10	6.0	-7.2	16.3	-6.3
1	New York Jets	@	Buffalo Bills	12	21	-9	-4.8	-5.1	-2.6	-6.4
3	Miami Dolphins	@	New York Jets	6	20	-14	-9.3	-4.8	-7.6	-6.4
7	Atlanta Falcons	@	New England Patriots	7	23	-16	2.4	9.0	-9.5	-6.5
2	Carolina Panthers		Buffalo Bills	9	3	6	4.3	-5.1	12.5	-6.5
11	Miami Dolphins		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20	30	-10	-9.3	-2.8	-3.5	-6.5
6	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Arizona Cardinals	33	38	-5	-2.8	-7.9	2.1	-7.1
3	Oakland Raiders	@	Washington Redskins	10	27	-17	-4.9	1.9	-9.9	-7.1
5	Tennessee Titans	@	Miami Dolphins	10	16	-6	-5.1	-9.3	1.2	-7.2
10	Jacksonville Jaguars		Los Angeles Chargers	20	17	3	9.3	2.0	10.3	-7.3
10	Miami Dolphins	@	Carolina Panthers	21	45	-24	-9.3	4.3	-16.7	-7.3
1	Seattle Seahawks	@	Green Bay Packers	9	17	-8	1.7	-0.9	-0.4	-7.6
8	New Orleans Saints		Chicago Bears	20	12	8	11.1	-1.8	15.8	-7.8
5	Oakland Raiders		Baltimore Ravens	17	30	-13	-4.9	3.2	-5.1	-7.9
5	Dallas Cowboys		Green Bay Packers	31	35	-4	0.1	-0.9	4.0	-8.0
9	Baltimore Ravens	@	Tennessee Titans	20	23	-3	3.2	-5.1	5.3	-8.3
11	Tennessee Titans	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	17	40	-23	-5.1	6.6	-14.7	-8.3
6	Kansas City Chiefs		Pittsburgh Steelers	13	19	-6	6.0	6.6	2.4	-8.4
8	Cincinnati Bengals		Indianapolis Colts	24	23	1	-4.5	-11.0	9.5	-8.5
7	Denver Broncos	@	Los Angeles Chargers	0	21	-21	-7.2	2.0	-12.3	-8.7
3	Detroit Lions		Atlanta Falcons	26	30	-4	4.1	2.4	4.7	-8.7
7	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Oakland Raiders	30	31	-1	6.0	-4.9	8.0	-9.0
11	New Orleans Saints		Washington Redskins	34	31	3	11.1	1.9	12.1	-9.1
10	New York Giants	@	San Francisco 49ers	21	31	-10	-6.8	-8.9	-0.9	-9.1
10	Chicago Bears		Green Bay Packers	16	23	-7	-1.8	-0.9	2.2	-9.2
1	Los Angeles Chargers	@	Denver Broncos	21	24	-3	2.0	-7.2	6.3	-9.3
3	New England Patriots		Houston Texans	36	33	3	9.0	-0.4	12.3	-9.3
9	Buffalo Bills	@	New York Jets	21	34	-13	-5.1	-4.8	-3.4	-9.6
7	Indianapolis Colts		Jacksonville Jaguars	0	27	-27	-11.0	9.3	-17.3	-9.7
2	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Kansas City Chiefs	20	27	-7	11.8	6.0	2.8	-9.8
1	San Francisco 49ers		Carolina Panthers	3	23	-20	-8.9	4.3	-10.2	-9.8
3	Seattle Seahawks	@	Tennessee Titans	27	33	-6	1.7	-5.1	3.8	-9.8
8	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Carolina Panthers	3	17	-14	-2.8	4.3	-4.2	-9.8
1	New Orleans Saints	@	Minnesota Vikings	19	29	-10	11.1	8.1	-0.1	-9.9
2	Seattle Seahawks		San Francisco 49ers	12	9	3	1.7	-8.9	13.6	-10.6
4	New England Patriots		Carolina Panthers	30	33	-3	9.0	4.3	7.6	-10.6
9	Green Bay Packers		Detroit Lions	17	30	-13	-0.9	4.1	-2.1	-10.9
6	Baltimore Ravens		Chicago Bears	24	27	-3	3.2	-1.8	8.0	-11.0
11	Oakland Raiders	N	New England Patriots	8	33	-25	-4.9	9.0	-13.9	-11.1
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Cleveland Browns	21	18	3	6.6	-10.7	14.2	-11.2
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Chicago Bears	17	23	-6	6.6	-1.8	5.3	-11.3
7	New York Giants		Seattle Seahawks	7	24	-17	-6.8	1.7	-5.5	-11.5
10	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Indianapolis Colts	20	17	3	6.6	-11.0	14.6	-11.6
6	Jacksonville Jaguars		Los Angeles Rams	17	27	-10	9.3	10.6	1.7	-11.7
10	Denver Broncos		New England Patriots	16	41	-25	-7.2	9.0	-13.2	-11.8
6	Washington Redskins		San Francisco 49ers	26	24	2	1.9	-8.9	13.8	-11.8
9	San Francisco 49ers		Arizona Cardinals	10	20	-10	-8.9	-7.9	2.0	-12.0
10	Houston Texans	@	Los Angeles Rams	7	33	-26	-0.4	10.6	-14.0	-12.0
4	Indianapolis Colts	@	Seattle Seahawks	18	46	-28	-11.0	1.7	-15.7	-12.3
1	Indianapolis Colts	@	Los Angeles Rams	9	46	-37	-11.0	10.6	-24.6	-12.4
11	Kansas City Chiefs	@	New York Giants	9	12	-3	6.0	-6.8	9.8	-12.8
1	Tennessee Titans		Oakland Raiders	16	26	-10	-5.1	-4.9	2.8	-12.8
3	Los Angeles Chargers		Kansas City Chiefs	10	24	-14	2.0	6.0	-1.0	-13.0
9	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Dallas Cowboys	17	28	-11	6.0	0.1	2.9	-13.9
4	Minnesota Vikings		Detroit Lions	7	14	-7	8.1	4.1	7.0	-14.0
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	New York Jets	20	23	-3	9.3	-4.8	11.1	-14.1
7	Arizona Cardinals	N	Los Angeles Rams	0	33	-33	-7.9	10.6	-18.5	-14.5
3	Los Angeles Rams	@	San Francisco 49ers	41	39	2	10.6	-8.9	16.5	-14.5
10	Dallas Cowboys	@	Atlanta Falcons	7	27	-20	0.1	2.4	-5.3	-14.7
1	Cincinnati Bengals		Baltimore Ravens	0	20	-20	-4.5	3.2	-4.7	-15.3
1	Houston Texans		Jacksonville Jaguars	7	29	-22	-0.4	9.3	-6.7	-15.3
6	Denver Broncos		New York Giants	10	23	-13	-7.2	-6.8	2.5	-15.5
2	Minnesota Vikings	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	26	-17	8.1	6.6	-1.4	-15.6
2	Los Angeles Chargers		Miami Dolphins	17	19	-2	2.0	-9.3	14.4	-16.4
11	Los Angeles Rams	@	Minnesota Vikings	7	24	-17	10.6	8.1	-0.5	-16.5
4	Atlanta Falcons		Buffalo Bills	17	23	-6	2.4	-5.1	10.6	-16.6
4	Baltimore Ravens		Pittsburgh Steelers	9	26	-17	3.2	6.6	-0.4	-16.6
7	Carolina Panthers	@	Chicago Bears	3	17	-14	4.3	-1.8	3.1	-17.1
4	Chicago Bears	@	Green Bay Packers	14	35	-21	-1.8	-0.9	-3.8	-17.2
8	Oakland Raiders	@	Buffalo Bills	14	34	-20	-4.9	-5.1	-2.8	-17.2
3	Carolina Panthers		New Orleans Saints	13	34	-21	4.3	11.1	-3.7	-17.3
6	Atlanta Falcons		Miami Dolphins	17	20	-3	2.4	-9.3	14.8	-17.8
5	Los Angeles Rams		Seattle Seahawks	10	16	-6	10.6	1.7	11.9	-17.9
3	Philadelphia Eagles		New York Giants	27	24	3	11.8	-6.8	21.5	-18.5
2	Los Angeles Rams		Washington Redskins	20	27	-7	10.6	1.9	11.7	-18.7
8	Washington Redskins		Dallas Cowboys	19	33	-14	1.9	0.1	4.8	-18.8
11	Dallas Cowboys		Philadelphia Eagles	9	37	-28	0.1	11.8	-8.7	-19.3
9	New York Giants		Los Angeles Rams	17	51	-34	-6.8	10.6	-14.4	-19.6
9	Houston Texans		Indianapolis Colts	14	20	-6	-0.4	-11.0	13.7	-19.7
11	Buffalo Bills	@	Los Angeles Chargers	24	54	-30	-5.1	2.0	-10.2	-19.8
2	Chicago Bears	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	29	-22	-1.8	-2.8	-2.0	-20.0
4	Cleveland Browns		Cincinnati Bengals	7	31	-24	-10.7	-4.5	-3.1	-20.9
1	New England Patriots		Kansas City Chiefs	27	42	-15	9.0	6.0	6.0	-21.0
2	New Orleans Saints		New England Patriots	20	36	-16	11.1	9.0	5.1	-21.1
5	Pittsburgh Steelers		Jacksonville Jaguars	9	30	-21	6.6	9.3	0.3	-21.3
11	Green Bay Packers		Baltimore Ravens	0	23	-23	-0.9	3.2	-1.1	-21.9
2	New York Jets	@	Oakland Raiders	20	45	-25	-4.8	-4.9	-2.8	-22.2
10	Buffalo Bills		New Orleans Saints	10	47	-37	-5.1	11.1	-13.2	-23.8
7	San Francisco 49ers		Dallas Cowboys	10	40	-30	-8.9	0.1	-6.0	-24.0
8	Miami Dolphins	@	Baltimore Ravens	0	40	-40	-9.3	3.2	-15.5	-24.5
2	Dallas Cowboys	@	Denver Broncos	17	42	-25	0.1	-7.2	4.3	-29.3
3	Baltimore Ravens	N	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	44	-37	3.2	9.3	-6.1	-30.9
4	Tennessee Titans	@	Houston Texans	14	57	-43	-5.1	-0.4	-7.8	-35.2
2	Jacksonville Jaguars		Tennessee Titans	16	37	-21	9.3	-5.1	17.4	-38.4

Here are the individual SRS ratings, along with each team’s “variance” in their 10 games. This is simple the average amount by which their games differed from the expected result. The three most inconsistent teams this year have been the Jaguars, Cowboys, and Rams, while the Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns have been the three most consistent teams. Take that, consistency-worshipers!

Var Rk	SRS Rk	Team	G	MOV	SOS	SRS	Variance
25	1	Philadelphia Eagles	10	13.2	-1.4	11.8	7.3
15	4	New Orleans Saints	10	10.3	0.8	11.1	9.7
3	3	Los Angeles Rams	10	12.0	-1.4	10.6	14.0
1	2	Jacksonville Jaguars	10	10.7	-1.4	9.3	15.4
11	5	New England Patriots	10	8.4	0.6	9.0	10.1
26	6	Minnesota Vikings	10	6.0	2.1	8.1	7.0
6	7	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	6.8	-0.2	6.6	11.1
12	8	Kansas City Chiefs	10	4.8	1.2	6.0	10.1
19	9	Carolina Panthers	10	3.3	1.0	4.3	8.7
28	10	Detroit Lions	10	3.7	0.4	4.1	6.2
4	11	Baltimore Ravens	10	4.5	-1.3	3.2	13.9
24	13	Atlanta Falcons	10	2.7	-0.3	2.4	8.2
20	14	Los Angeles Chargers	10	2.5	-0.5	2.0	8.5
18	12	Washington Redskins	10	-2.8	4.7	1.9	8.7
23	15	Seattle Seahawks	10	4.3	-2.6	1.7	8.3
2	17	Dallas Cowboys	10	0.0	0.1	0.1	14.3
9	16	Houston Texans	10	-0.1	-0.3	-0.4	10.4
22	18	Green Bay Packers	10	-3.2	2.3	-0.9	8.4
10	19	Chicago Bears	10	-5.3	3.5	-1.8	10.2
29	20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	-2.5	-0.3	-2.8	6.1
30	22	Cincinnati Bengals	10	-2.4	-2.1	-4.5	5.8
27	23	New York Jets	10	-2.1	-2.7	-4.8	6.8
14	25	Oakland Raiders	10	-4.0	-0.9	-4.9	9.7
5	21	Tennessee Titans	10	-3.1	-2.0	-5.1	12.7
7	24	Buffalo Bills	10	-4.2	-0.9	-5.1	10.7
8	26	New York Giants	10	-8.5	1.7	-6.8	10.5
13	27	Denver Broncos	10	-8.2	1.0	-7.2	10.0
31	28	Arizona Cardinals	10	-7.5	-0.4	-7.9	5.2
16	30	San Francisco 49ers	10	-8.6	-0.3	-8.9	9.6
17	29	Miami Dolphins	10	-9.4	0.1	-9.3	9.3
32	31	Cleveland Browns	10	-11.2	0.5	-10.7	4.9
21	32	Indianapolis Colts	10	-10.1	-0.9	-11.0	8.4

What stands out to you?

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