In week 1, the Titans blew out the Bucs, in Tampa Bay, by the score of 42-14. Right now, the Bucs have an SRS rating of -5.9, but the Titans are even worse, at -7.7. Given the location of the game, we would “expect” Tampa Bay to have defeated Tennessee by about five points. So with the Titans winning by 28 points, that means Tennessee exceeded expectations by about 33 points. That’s the largest outlier of any game this year. Note that the Titans exceeded expectations by 36.5 points in week 1 of 2014, making it the second least-conforming game of last season.

Let’s start with the SRS ratings, presented below. These are through week 12, but also include the Packers/Lions game from Thursday night.

The second-least conforming game so far this year also involved the Bucs. Here’s how to read the table below. In week 11, Tampa Bay traveled to Philadelphia, and won 45-17. The BUcs have an SRS rating of -5.9, while the Eagles have a rating of -5.6. Therefore, we would expect the Bucs to lose by 3.3 points (the expected MOV), but in reality, Tampa Bay won by 28 points, exceeding expectations by 31.3 points.

The table below is fully searchable and sortable, and displays every game from 2015.

Finally, we can use these ratings to see which teams have been the most and least consistent this year, by measuring the standard deviation of each team’s “Diff” ratings. As it turns out, the Eagles have been the most inconsistent team this year, followed by the Bucs and Dolphins. That’s probably not too surprising to most observers, but it’s always nice to be able to quantify things:

The Patriots have been the second-most consistent team this year, which isn’t too surprising. But what might be surprising: the Browns have actually been more consistent!