When measuring receiver performance, it’s important to recognize that some wide receivers play on pass-heavy teams while some play on run-heavy teams. Targets are often mistakenly viewed as a measure of opportunity, when really targets are a form of production; a player who gets a target on a play is doing something positive. The best measure of opportunity is routes run, and team pass attempts serves as a good proxy for that.
Let’s skip Adams, who again blows away the field. Let’s instead look at Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown, who is often the lead horse for the great efficiency numbers that Ryan Tannehill has produced since joining the Titans. Brown missed two games this year, but in those 14 games, he gained 1,075 receiving yards, 55 first downs and 11 touchdowns. Most impressively, this came with only 424 pass attempts (excluding sacks) in those games. Brown picked up a first down on 13% of all Titans pass attempts in the games he played, the fourth-best mark in the NFL; he caught a touchdown on 2.6% of all Tennessee pass plays during those 14 games, the third-highest mark in the league. A receiver can only produce on passing plays, and Brown was a huge reason for the Titans success last year.
For each receiver last year, I calculated how many Adjusted Catch Yards they gained, which is simply receiving yards with a 9-yard bonus for each first down and a 20-yard bonus for each touchdown. [1]Without duplication, so a touchdown only gets 11 additional yards, since each touchdown is always a first down. For Brown, that means he gained 1691 adjusted catch yards; in the 14 games he played, he averaged 3.99 ACY per team pass attempt, the second-best rate in the NFL. Here are the top 100 receivers by this metric:
Rk | Player | Team | Pos | Yards | 1D | TD | G | Tm Pass Att | ACY/TPA | Rec Yd/TPA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Davante Adams | GNB | WR | 1374 | 73 | 18 | 14 | 461 | 4.84 | 2.98 |
2 | A.J. Brown | TEN | WR | 1075 | 55 | 11 | 14 | 424 | 3.99 | 2.54 |
3 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 1400 | 58 | 7 | 16 | 516 | 3.87 | 2.71 |
4 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 1535 | 73 | 8 | 16 | 596 | 3.83 | 2.58 |
5 | Travis Kelce | KAN | TE | 1416 | 79 | 11 | 15 | 598 | 3.76 | 2.37 |
6 | DeAndre Hopkins | ARI | WR | 1407 | 75 | 6 | 16 | 575 | 3.74 | 2.45 |
7 | Will Fuller | HOU | WR | 879 | 38 | 8 | 11 | 364 | 3.60 | 2.41 |
8 | Corey Davis | TEN | WR | 984 | 49 | 5 | 14 | 416 | 3.56 | 2.37 |
9 | DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | 1303 | 63 | 10 | 16 | 563 | 3.52 | 2.31 |
10 | George Kittle | SFO | TE | 634 | 32 | 2 | 8 | 271 | 3.48 | 2.34 |
11 | Darren Waller | LVR | TE | 1196 | 69 | 9 | 16 | 551 | 3.48 | 2.17 |
12 | Calvin Ridley | ATL | WR | 1374 | 65 | 9 | 15 | 593 | 3.47 | 2.32 |
13 | D.J. Moore | CAR | WR | 1193 | 53 | 4 | 15 | 510 | 3.36 | 2.34 |
14 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 925 | 52 | 14 | 15 | 471 | 3.28 | 1.96 |
15 | Tyreek Hill | KAN | WR | 1276 | 57 | 15 | 15 | 598 | 3.27 | 2.13 |
16 | Michael Thomas | NOR | WR | 438 | 25 | 0 | 7 | 203 | 3.27 | 2.16 |
17 | Brandin Cooks | HOU | WR | 1150 | 51 | 6 | 15 | 516 | 3.25 | 2.23 |
18 | Julio Jones | ATL | WR | 771 | 36 | 3 | 9 | 353 | 3.20 | 2.18 |
19 | Allen Robinson | CHI | WR | 1250 | 68 | 6 | 16 | 614 | 3.14 | 2.04 |
20 | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 701 | 37 | 7 | 14 | 371 | 2.99 | 1.89 |
21 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 1054 | 57 | 10 | 16 | 563 | 2.98 | 1.87 |
22 | Kenny Golladay | DET | WR | 338 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 171 | 2.95 | 1.98 |
23 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 1118 | 51 | 4 | 15 | 554 | 2.93 | 2.02 |
24 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 992 | 61 | 8 | 14 | 563 | 2.89 | 1.76 |
25 | Marquise Brown | BAL | WR | 769 | 35 | 8 | 16 | 406 | 2.89 | 1.89 |
26 | Jarvis Landry | CLE | WR | 840 | 46 | 3 | 15 | 448 | 2.87 | 1.88 |
27 | Robby Anderson | CAR | WR | 1096 | 49 | 3 | 16 | 550 | 2.85 | 1.99 |
28 | Jakobi Meyers | NWE | WR | 729 | 37 | 0 | 14 | 376 | 2.82 | 1.94 |
29 | Chris Godwin | TAM | WR | 840 | 43 | 7 | 12 | 464 | 2.81 | 1.81 |
30 | Brandon Aiyuk | SFO | WR | 748 | 42 | 5 | 12 | 430 | 2.75 | 1.74 |
31 | Jamison Crowder | NYJ | WR | 699 | 32 | 6 | 12 | 385 | 2.74 | 1.82 |
32 | Cole Beasley | BUF | WR | 967 | 53 | 4 | 15 | 558 | 2.67 | 1.73 |
33 | Marvin Jones | DET | WR | 978 | 52 | 9 | 16 | 582 | 2.65 | 1.68 |
34 | Julian Edelman | NWE | WR | 315 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 180 | 2.65 | 1.75 |
35 | Mike Evans | TAM | WR | 1006 | 55 | 13 | 16 | 626 | 2.63 | 1.61 |
36 | Amari Cooper | DAL | WR | 1114 | 54 | 5 | 16 | 639 | 2.59 | 1.74 |
37 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | WR | 656 | 37 | 3 | 12 | 397 | 2.57 | 1.65 |
38 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | WR | 974 | 44 | 3 | 15 | 552 | 2.54 | 1.76 |
39 | DeVante Parker | MIA | WR | 793 | 45 | 4 | 14 | 498 | 2.49 | 1.59 |
40 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 908 | 52 | 6 | 16 | 581 | 2.48 | 1.56 |
41 | Antonio Brown | TAM | WR | 483 | 27 | 4 | 8 | 317 | 2.43 | 1.52 |
42 | Emmanuel Sanders | NOR | WR | 726 | 33 | 5 | 14 | 444 | 2.43 | 1.64 |
43 | Odell Beckham Jr. | CLE | WR | 319 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 211 | 2.39 | 1.51 |
44 | Nelson Agholor | LVR | WR | 896 | 37 | 8 | 16 | 551 | 2.39 | 1.63 |
45 | Curtis Samuel | CAR | WR | 851 | 39 | 3 | 15 | 521 | 2.37 | 1.63 |
46 | Robert Woods | LAR | WR | 936 | 44 | 6 | 16 | 590 | 2.37 | 1.59 |
47 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | WR | 762 | 42 | 5 | 15 | 508 | 2.35 | 1.50 |
48 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | 841 | 43 | 4 | 15 | 543 | 2.34 | 1.55 |
49 | Alvin Kamara | NOR | RB | 756 | 35 | 5 | 15 | 490 | 2.30 | 1.54 |
50 | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | WR | 856 | 39 | 3 | 16 | 556 | 2.23 | 1.54 |
51 | Deebo Samuel | SFO | WR | 391 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 257 | 2.23 | 1.52 |
52 | Rashard Higgins | CLE | WR | 599 | 26 | 4 | 13 | 394 | 2.23 | 1.52 |
53 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | 923 | 45 | 7 | 15 | 633 | 2.22 | 1.46 |
54 | DJ Chark | JAX | WR | 706 | 37 | 5 | 13 | 497 | 2.20 | 1.42 |
55 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 935 | 46 | 5 | 16 | 639 | 2.20 | 1.46 |
56 | Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 751 | 38 | 3 | 16 | 517 | 2.18 | 1.45 |
57 | Allen Lazard | GNB | WR | 451 | 23 | 3 | 10 | 318 | 2.17 | 1.42 |
58 | John Brown | BUF | WR | 458 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 319 | 2.16 | 1.44 |
59 | Keke Coutee | HOU | WR | 400 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 280 | 2.16 | 1.43 |
60 | Tim Patrick | DEN | WR | 742 | 33 | 6 | 15 | 515 | 2.15 | 1.44 |
61 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | WR | 831 | 48 | 9 | 16 | 656 | 2.08 | 1.27 |
62 | Mike Gesicki | MIA | TE | 703 | 36 | 6 | 15 | 533 | 2.05 | 1.32 |
63 | Chase Claypool | PIT | WR | 873 | 41 | 9 | 16 | 656 | 2.04 | 1.33 |
64 | Russell Gage | ATL | WR | 786 | 50 | 4 | 16 | 628 | 2.04 | 1.25 |
65 | Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | 843 | 44 | 5 | 16 | 639 | 2.03 | 1.32 |
66 | Damiere Byrd | NWE | WR | 604 | 29 | 1 | 16 | 440 | 1.99 | 1.37 |
67 | Breshad Perriman | NYJ | WR | 505 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 363 | 1.98 | 1.39 |
68 | T.J. Hockenson | DET | TE | 723 | 40 | 6 | 16 | 582 | 1.97 | 1.24 |
69 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 524 | 28 | 3 | 11 | 418 | 1.94 | 1.25 |
70 | Randall Cobb | HOU | WR | 441 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 339 | 1.93 | 1.30 |
71 | Denzel Mims | NYJ | WR | 357 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 256 | 1.92 | 1.39 |
72 | Willie Snead | BAL | WR | 432 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 352 | 1.91 | 1.23 |
73 | Robert Tonyan | GNB | TE | 586 | 33 | 11 | 16 | 526 | 1.91 | 1.11 |
74 | Noah Fant | DEN | TE | 673 | 34 | 3 | 15 | 532 | 1.90 | 1.27 |
75 | Chad Hansen | HOU | WR | 236 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 182 | 1.90 | 1.30 |
76 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | GNB | WR | 690 | 27 | 6 | 16 | 526 | 1.90 | 1.31 |
77 | Kendrick Bourne | SFO | WR | 667 | 35 | 2 | 15 | 535 | 1.88 | 1.25 |
78 | Mike Williams | LAC | WR | 756 | 35 | 5 | 15 | 602 | 1.87 | 1.26 |
79 | Christian Kirk | ARI | WR | 621 | 30 | 6 | 14 | 513 | 1.87 | 1.21 |
80 | Preston Williams | MIA | WR | 288 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 249 | 1.84 | 1.16 |
81 | Austin Hooper | CLE | TE | 435 | 27 | 4 | 13 | 399 | 1.81 | 1.09 |
82 | Evan Engram | NYG | TE | 654 | 29 | 1 | 16 | 517 | 1.79 | 1.26 |
83 | Logan Thomas | WAS | TE | 670 | 36 | 6 | 16 | 601 | 1.76 | 1.11 |
84 | Travis Fulgham | PHI | WR | 539 | 26 | 4 | 13 | 466 | 1.75 | 1.16 |
85 | Hunter Renfrow | LVR | WR | 656 | 32 | 2 | 16 | 551 | 1.75 | 1.19 |
86 | Laviska Shenault Jr. | JAX | WR | 600 | 33 | 5 | 14 | 544 | 1.75 | 1.10 |
87 | Jonnu Smith | TEN | TE | 448 | 25 | 8 | 15 | 440 | 1.73 | 1.02 |
88 | Hunter Henry | LAC | TE | 613 | 35 | 4 | 14 | 563 | 1.73 | 1.09 |
89 | Danny Amendola | DET | WR | 602 | 30 | 0 | 14 | 506 | 1.72 | 1.19 |
90 | Zach Pascal | IND | WR | 629 | 29 | 5 | 16 | 552 | 1.71 | 1.14 |
91 | Sammy Watkins | KAN | WR | 421 | 27 | 2 | 10 | 409 | 1.68 | 1.03 |
92 | Jared Cook | NOR | TE | 504 | 27 | 7 | 15 | 497 | 1.66 | 1.01 |
93 | Keelan Cole | JAX | WR | 642 | 34 | 5 | 16 | 616 | 1.63 | 1.04 |
94 | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | WR | 503 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 446 | 1.60 | 1.13 |
95 | Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | 403 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 382 | 1.58 | 1.05 |
96 | Darnell Mooney | CHI | WR | 631 | 33 | 4 | 16 | 614 | 1.58 | 1.03 |
97 | Irv Smith Jr. | MIN | TE | 365 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 392 | 1.58 | 0.93 |
98 | DeSean Jackson | PHI | WR | 236 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 214 | 1.57 | 1.10 |
99 | Gabriel Davis | BUF | WR | 599 | 27 | 7 | 16 | 596 | 1.54 | 1.01 |
100 | James White | NWE | RB | 375 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 368 | 1.54 | 1.02 |
Some notes.
- Adams, of course, laps the field. His performance was nothing short of remarkable, and it *should* be remembered as one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. To the extent it won’t be, it will be for two reasons: he missed 2 games and half of a third (against the Lions poor defense, no less), deflating his totals. And because he played on a relatively run-heavy team: Green Bay finished with “only” 526 pass attempts, 24th-most in the 2020 NFL.
- Rookie Justin Jefferson was a revelation in Minnesota, and had one of the great rookie seasons in wide receiver history. He ranks third by this metric and he also played on a somewhat run-heavy team. Jefferson actually ranked 2nd in pure receiving yards per team pass attempt, but Brown’s big advantages in first downs and touchdowns (per attempt) gave him the edge. If we must compare him to Randy Moss, his rookie year produced a stat line of 1,313 yards, 17 touchdowns and 51 first downs on a team that had 533 passes, compared to Jefferson’s 1,400, 7, 58, and 516. Obviously the touchdown edge was significant, but Jefferson’s season was truly legendary.
- Travis Kelce had an incredible year, of course, but lost in all the praise was that he played for one of the most pass-happy teams in football. Kelce ranked 2nd in receiving yards but only 7th in receiving yards per team pass attempt; his strong touchdown and first down numbers bring him up to 5th in ACY/TPA. His top competitor for the All-Pro awards at tight end is George Kittle, who missed much of the season with a broken foot. He was on the field for over 90% of San Francisco’s snaps in the team’s first five games, but fell between 50% and 67% in the final three games he played. Still, Kittle was remarkably efficient in 2020 as usual: he averaged 3.48 ACY/TPA for the season, not too far behind Kelce. For what it’s worth, through five games (i.e., before the partial games brought his average down), Kittle was averaging an incredible 4.36 ACY/TPA and 2.54 receiving yards per team pass attempt. When healthy, Kittle is still in the discussion for the game’s top tight end.
- If you’re looking for a player who is maybe underrated by this metric, then Tyreek Hill might be your guy. It’s hard to call him overrated — he looks outstanding and is competing of course with Kelce for targets — and Hill was a first-team All-Pro in 2020. But he only ranks 15th in this metric, and that’s without any Mahomes penalty! [2]Or, I suppose, without any bonus for having to share targets with Kelce. The closest thing to a knock on Hill is that he only had 57 first downs, which hurts him here. Hill is more used as the big play threat while Kelce gobbles up the first downs, hurting him in this formula. Of course, this also ignores the valuable contributions Hill makes as a rusher.
- I thought Terry McLaurin might fare better here, but he only ranks 21st overall. It’s a good reminder that this formula doesn’t have any modifications for the quality of your passer, only the quantity.
What stands out to you?