The AFC East was a very stable division over the past two years. The Patriots won 12 games in 2012 and 12 more in 2013. The Bills, with six wins in 2013, also repeated their 2012 win total. Miami won 7 games in 2012, and then 8 last year. And the Jets followed up a 6-10 season in 2012 with an 8-8 season last year. That’s about as stable as a division can get. The four teams saw their win totals move by an aggregate of just three wins, making the 2012-2013 AFC East the most stable division since realignment.
On the other end of the spectrum: the NFC South. The Falcons dropped from 13 wins in 2012 to just four last year. The Panthers jumped from 7 wins in 2012 to 12 last year, and it didn’t even take Bill Parcells to do it. New Orleans also won seven games in 2012, but jumped to 12 wins in 2013. The team that saw the least movement in the NFC South last year was Tampa Bay, but the Bucs still fell from 7 wins to 4 wins, matching the total movement by all AFC East teams. As a group, NFC South teams had a change of 21 wins from 2012 to 2013, the most of any division since realignment.
That’s hardly new for the NFC South, or for that matter, the AFC East. Since realignment, the NFC South has easily been the league’s most unstable division: the Falcons, Saints, Bucs, and Panthers have seen their win totals fluctuate by an average total of 18.8 wins per year, beginning with the 2002-2003 seasons. The AFC East has been incredibly stable: no team has ever finished with more wins than New England, while the Bills have finished last or tied for last eight times since realignment. As a result, the average movement among AFC East teams — in the aggregate — has been just 6.3 wins.
| Rk | Division | Change in Wins/Yr | Change # Wins/Tm Yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFC South | 15.7 | 3.9 |
| 2 | NFC North | 13.3 | 3.3 |
| 3 | AFC West | 11.9 | 3.3 |
| 4 | AFC North | 11.9 | 3.0 |
| 5 | AFC South | 11.7 | 2.9 |
| 6 | NFC East | 11.3 | 2.8 |
| 7 | NFC West | 10.8 | 2.7 |
| 8 | AFC East | 10.8 | 2.7 |
The table below shows the average change in win totals, in the aggregate, for each of division in each set of years since 2002.
| Rk | Division | Years | Change in Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFC South | 2012--2013 | 21 |
| 2 | AFC East | 2007--2008 | 20 |
| 4.5 | NFC North | 2011--2012 | 19 |
| 4.5 | NFC South | 2009--2010 | 19 |
| 4.5 | NFC East | 2004--2005 | 19 |
| 4.5 | AFC East | 2004--2005 | 19 |
| 8.5 | AFC South | 2010--2011 | 18 |
| 8.5 | NFC North | 2007--2008 | 18 |
| 8.5 | NFC South | 2005--2006 | 18 |
| 8.5 | NFC South | 2004--2005 | 18 |
| 11 | AFC North | 2002--2003 | 17.5 |
| 14.5 | AFC South | 2011--2012 | 17 |
| 14.5 | AFC West | 2009--2010 | 17 |
| 14.5 | NFC South | 2008--2009 | 17 |
| 14.5 | NFC North | 2006--2007 | 17 |
| 14.5 | AFC North | 2006--2007 | 17 |
| 14.5 | AFC West | 2002--2003 | 17 |
| 18 | AFC North | 2007--2008 | 16.5 |
| 23.5 | NFC East | 2012--2013 | 15 |
| 23.5 | AFC West | 2011--2012 | 15 |
| 23.5 | NFC North | 2010--2011 | 15 |
| 23.5 | NFC West | 2010--2011 | 15 |
| 23.5 | NFC South | 2010--2011 | 15 |
| 23.5 | NFC North | 2009--2010 | 15 |
| 23.5 | NFC West | 2009--2010 | 15 |
| 23.5 | AFC East | 2006--2007 | 15 |
| 23.5 | AFC North | 2005--2006 | 15 |
| 23.5 | AFC West | 2003--2004 | 15 |
| 29 | NFC South | 2002--2003 | 14.5 |
| 31 | NFC West | 2011--2012 | 14 |
| 31 | AFC South | 2005--2006 | 14 |
| 31 | NFC North | 2004--2005 | 14 |
| 36 | AFC South | 2012--2013 | 13 |
| 36 | NFC South | 2011--2012 | 13 |
| 36 | NFC South | 2007--2008 | 13 |
| 36 | AFC East | 2005--2006 | 13 |
| 36 | AFC East | 2003--2004 | 13 |
| 36 | AFC South | 2003--2004 | 13 |
| 36 | NFC East | 2002--2003 | 13 |
| 45 | NFC North | 2012--2013 | 12 |
| 45 | AFC North | 2009--2010 | 12 |
| 45 | NFC East | 2006--2007 | 12 |
| 45 | AFC West | 2006--2007 | 12 |
| 45 | NFC South | 2006--2007 | 12 |
| 45 | AFC West | 2005--2006 | 12 |
| 45 | NFC East | 2005--2006 | 12 |
| 45 | AFC North | 2004--2005 | 12 |
| 45 | NFC South | 2003--2004 | 12 |
| 45 | NFC West | 2003--2004 | 12 |
| 45 | NFC West | 2002--2003 | 12 |
| 51.5 | NFC East | 2008--2009 | 11.5 |
| 51.5 | AFC North | 2008--2009 | 11.5 |
| 56 | AFC West | 2012--2013 | 11 |
| 56 | NFC North | 2008--2009 | 11 |
| 56 | NFC West | 2006--2007 | 11 |
| 56 | NFC North | 2005--2006 | 11 |
| 56 | AFC South | 2004--2005 | 11 |
| 56 | AFC North | 2003--2004 | 11 |
| 56 | AFC East | 2002--2003 | 11 |
| 63 | AFC South | 2009--2010 | 10 |
| 63 | NFC East | 2009--2010 | 10 |
| 63 | AFC South | 2008--2009 | 10 |
| 63 | AFC South | 2007--2008 | 10 |
| 63 | NFC West | 2007--2008 | 10 |
| 63 | AFC West | 2004--2005 | 10 |
| 63 | NFC North | 2002--2003 | 10 |
| 68 | NFC East | 2011--2012 | 9 |
| 68 | NFC West | 2005--2006 | 9 |
| 68 | NFC West | 2004--2005 | 9 |
| 70 | NFC East | 2007--2008 | 8.5 |
| 73.5 | NFC West | 2012--2013 | 8 |
| 73.5 | AFC North | 2011--2012 | 8 |
| 73.5 | AFC West | 2010--2011 | 8 |
| 73.5 | AFC East | 2009--2010 | 8 |
| 73.5 | AFC South | 2006--2007 | 8 |
| 73.5 | NFC East | 2003--2004 | 8 |
| 78 | AFC East | 2010--2011 | 7 |
| 78 | AFC West | 2008--2009 | 7 |
| 78 | AFC West | 2007--2008 | 7 |
| 81 | AFC North | 2010--2011 | 6 |
| 81 | NFC East | 2010--2011 | 6 |
| 81 | AFC East | 2008--2009 | 6 |
| 83 | AFC South | 2002--2003 | 5 |
| 85.5 | AFC North | 2012--2013 | 4 |
| 85.5 | AFC East | 2011--2012 | 4 |
| 85.5 | NFC West | 2008--2009 | 4 |
| 85.5 | NFC North | 2003--2004 | 4 |
| 88 | AFC East | 2012--2013 | 3 |