Week 5 (2018) Game Scripts: The Bengals Keep Defying The Odds

by Chase Stuart on October 11, 2018

in Checkdowns

Previously:

The Buffalo Bills got rid of Tyrod Taylor, spent a first round pick on a quarterback, and are somehow more run-heavy! In 2018, the Bills had the strongest rush identity in the NFL, in large part because of Taylor. Yet on Sunday, Buffalo produced the most run-heavy game of the year, rushing more than twice as often as passing in a 13-12 win against the Titans. The only time the Bills did that last year was in the snow storm against the Colts. In week 5, Josh Allen had 20 dropbacks and gained just 78 yards; Allen rushed 4 times for 19 yards and a touchdown, LeSean McCoy had 24 carries for 85 yards, and Chris Ivory had 14 carries for 43 yards.

The most pass-happy team of the week is also the most pass-happy team from 2017: the New England Patriots. Against the Colts, the Patriots led 7-0 after 6 minutes, 14-0 after 18 minutes, 24-3 at halftime, and 38-17 midway through the 4th quarter. And yet Tom Brady finished the day with 44 pass attempts, while Patriots running backs had just 20 carries. This game was the 5th time in the last 10 years that the Patriots had 44+ pass attempts despite leading by 14+ at both halftime and the end of the game; over that same period, the rest of the NFL had done it just four times. That’s why New England — with the 4th-best Game Script of the week and the highest Pass Ratio of any team with a positive Game Script in week 5 — was the most pass-happy team of the week.

The full week 5 Game Scripts are below:

Team	H/R	Opp	Boxscore	PF	PA	Margin	Game Script	Pass	Run	P/R Ratio	Op_P	Op_R	Opp_P/R Ratio
NOR		WAS	Boxscore	43	19	24	14.7	30	32	48.4%	42	18	70%
KAN		JAX	Boxscore	30	14	16	13.7	39	30	56.5%	66	17	79.5%
DET		GNB	Boxscore	31	23	8	13.1	29	28	50.9%	56	20	73.7%
NWE		IND	Boxscore	38	24	14	12	44	23	65.7%	60	21	74.1%
LAC		OAK	Boxscore	26	10	16	9.7	28	31	47.5%	36	13	73.5%
PIT		ATL	Boxscore	41	17	24	8.6	29	29	50%	50	19	72.5%
NYJ		DEN	Boxscore	34	16	18	7.6	23	38	37.7%	55	17	76.4%
MIN	@	PHI	Boxscore	23	21	2	6.5	38	23	62.3%	38	17	69.1%
ARI	@	SFO	Boxscore	28	18	10	5.7	26	23	53.1%	58	34	63%
CAR		NYG	Boxscore	33	31	2	5.1	36	31	53.7%	38	16	70.4%
BUF		TEN	Boxscore	13	12	1	2.5	20	43	31.7%	28	25	52.8%
CLE		BAL	Boxscore	12	9	3	0.6	48	28	63.2%	59	25	70.2%
HOU		DAL	Boxscore	19	16	3	-0.2	45	31	59.2%	31	29	51.7%
LAR	@	SEA	Boxscore	33	31	2	-0.9	33	30	52.4%	23	32	41.8%
CIN		MIA	Boxscore	27	17	10	-4.6	32	26	55.2%	38	22	63.3%

The Bengals are 4-1, but they’ve done it in a pretty unconventional way.

In week 1, the Bengals beat the Colts 34-23 (in a game that was a toss-up in the final minute) with a -3.1 Game Script.
In week 2, the Bengals dominated the Ravens 34-23 (before letting Baltimore back in the game), winning with an 11.2 Game Script.
In week 3, Cincinnati lost 31-21 with a -4.1 Game Script.
In week 4, Cincinnati won 37-36 over the Falcons with a 0.4 Game Script.
In week 5, Cincinnati won 27-17 with a -4.6 Game Script.

The Bengals trailed Indianapolis by 13 points halfway through the 3rd quarter; at that point, Cincinnati’s win percentage was under ten percent according to ESPN.