Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6

It was 18 years ago that Herm Edwards made his famous “You Play To Win The Game” speech. That came after the Jets had a loss in their 7th game of the season, dropping the team’s record to 2-5.

With that backdrop, let’s move on to some…. curious…. coaching decisions after seven weeks of the 2020 NFL season.

Before getting to the data, I want you to think about how the following game would unfold. A team trails by at least 14 points at halftime and ultimately loses by at least 21 points. This is your classic blowout, a game that wasn’t competitive for very long. Now, how frequently would you expect the losing team to pass? From a Game Scripts perspective, this is obviously a game that would heavily incentive throwing the football. However, sometimes teams just give up.

From 2015 to 2019, there were 128 games that met the above criteria. In those games, teams wound up throwing on 66.3% of all plays. In 16 of those 128 instances, or every 8 games, the losing team still decided to pass on less than 57% of their plays. ^[1]Of course, quarterback scrambles on designed pass plays are not runs. No data are perfect; most are still useful.

In 2020, through 6 weeks, there were 7 games that met the big blowout criteria, and true to form, just once did a team pass on fewer than 57% of their plays: the Bengals loss in week 5 where Cincinnati ran out the clock in a losing effort. Then, in week 7, there were three games where the losing team trailed by two touchdowns at halftime and lost by at least three touchdowns.

And in all three games, the losing team wound up throwing on under 57% of their plays. In other words, we had three games in a row!  So, were these instances where one team quit? Let’s review:

• One would not think that the Washington Football Team would be on the punching side of a knockout, but after injuries to Dak Prescott and much of the offensive line, the Dallas Cowboys are one of the worst teams in football. Making matters worse, Andy Dalton was injured in the third quarter, putting 2020 7th round pick Ben DiNucci in charge of the offense. At that point in time, the Cowboys trailed 22-3 with 6 minutes to go. After one 32-yard completion followed by a pair of sacks, DiNucci and the offense didn’t hit the field again until the fourth quarter… where Dallas recorded three pass plays, three runs, and two punts. Yes, a third-string quarterback does not offer much promise, but a 22-point lead in the fourth quarter is not usually the precursor to waiving the white flag.  This was a case where the team quit gave its players a rest.

• One would not that the New England Patriots under Belichick would be on the receiving side of a knockout blow… at home, no less, but that is what happened on Sunday.  Cam Newton was so bad against the 49ers that he was benched at the start of the 4th quarter for Jarrett Stidham.  New England opened the quarter with three straight runs to Damien Harris, before unleashing Stidham at the end. There was a 2nd-and-18 run in the 3rd quarter.  The Patriots didn’t quite clearly quit the way the Cowboys did — there were no second-half punts and the Patriots defense allowed two 6-minute drives in the 4th quarter — but this wasn’t a great effort, either. New England also didn’t use any timeouts on defense in the second half.

• In Denver, the Broncos were embarrassed at home against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs.  Melvin Gordon had 10 carries in the second half and Denver had two drives in the second half that took over 4 minutes off the clock despite having just nine plays.  In the Broncos defense, Drew Lock did finish with 43 dropbacks and the Broncos running game was actually very efficient (33 carries, 177 yards, 12 first downs, and 2 touchdowns). But I won’t spend much time defending a team that had a 9-play drive take 4:21 off the clock or that failed to use any timeouts in the second half.

Dallas, New England, and Denver all had the most run-heavy offenses of the week, at least after accounting for Game Script. The full data below:

There were a couple of teams in the AFC North that were very pass-happy at least. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers were the only winning team that passed on two-thirds of their plays in week 7. Roethlisberger wasn’t sacked, and had 49 pass attempts, while the Steelers had just 24 carries (excluding one kneel). The passing game picked up 15 first downs to just 6 by the running game: when the passing attack is working, it will always be more efficient.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati had the most pass-happy game of week 7, which is becoming a consistent theme (when not quitting against the Ravens) under rookie Joe Burrow. This game was all about Burrow: he ran for 4 first downs and threw for 23 more, while all other Bengals rushers had 15 carries for one first down. And it worked: Cincinnati scored 34 points and Burrow and the offense never punted. Over the team’s last 5 drives, Cincinnati averaged 73 yards of offense and 5.4 points.

What stands out to you?