Let’s start with a piece of good news: I have created a 2015 Game Scripts page, where you can access the Game Scripts data from every game this season. That will likely be updated on Tuesday or Wednesday of each week.
The Rams are suddenly interesting to watch on offense. St. Louis traded into the top ten to draft Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin, and both players showed off their talents in week eight. Gurley had a 71-yard run, the highlight of a 20-carry, 133-yard day, while Austin ran for a touchdown and caught a 66-yard touchdown. Together, the duo combined for 265 yards from scrimmage as part of a run-heavy day for St. Louis. The team rushed 41 times compared to just 23 dropbacks, giving St. Louis the most run-happy identity of the week.
In losing efforts, two other teams stood out as run-happy. One, surprisingly, was Green Bay: The Packers were blown out, the sort of environment that usually leads to a 40-pass day. Instead, Aaron Rodgers had just 25 pass attempts, while the Packers finished with 21 carries. That ratio was supported by the efficiency metrics, though, as Green Bay shockingly averaged just 2.0 Net Yards per Attempt (compared to 4.3 yards per carry on the ground.)
The table below shows the week 8 Game Scripts data:
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAN | DET | Boxscore | 45 | 10 | 35 | 17.6 | 31 | 32 | 49.2% | 44 | 14 | 75.9% | |
| NWE | MIA | Boxscore | 36 | 7 | 29 | 13.6 | 40 | 26 | 60.6% | 49 | 12 | 80.3% | |
| OAK | NYJ | Boxscore | 34 | 20 | 14 | 11.2 | 36 | 25 | 59% | 49 | 21 | 70% | |
| DEN | GNB | Boxscore | 29 | 10 | 19 | 11.1 | 29 | 34 | 46% | 25 | 19 | 56.8% | |
| STL | SFO | Boxscore | 27 | 6 | 21 | 8.9 | 23 | 41 | 35.9% | 44 | 21 | 67.7% | |
| HOU | TEN | Boxscore | 20 | 6 | 14 | 6.3 | 38 | 23 | 62.3% | 38 | 20 | 65.5% | |
| CAR | IND | Boxscore | 29 | 26 | 3 | 5.8 | 37 | 35 | 51.4% | 49 | 34 | 59% | |
| TAM | @ | ATL | Boxscore | 23 | 20 | 3 | 4.4 | 31 | 32 | 49.2% | 46 | 25 | 64.8% |
| NOR | NYG | Boxscore | 52 | 49 | 3 | 3.4 | 50 | 26 | 65.8% | 44 | 21 | 67.7% | |
| SEA | @ | DAL | Boxscore | 13 | 12 | 1 | 1.1 | 30 | 31 | 49.2% | 27 | 30 | 47.4% |
| MIN | @ | CHI | Boxscore | 23 | 20 | 3 | 0.5 | 31 | 25 | 55.4% | 34 | 25 | 57.6% |
| ARI | @ | CLE | Boxscore | 34 | 20 | 14 | 0.3 | 39 | 38 | 50.6% | 41 | 18 | 69.5% |
| BAL | SDG | Boxscore | 29 | 26 | 3 | -0.6 | 40 | 24 | 62.5% | 38 | 25 | 60.3% | |
| CIN | @ | PIT | Boxscore | 16 | 10 | 6 | -2.2 | 41 | 21 | 66.1% | 48 | 19 | 71.6% |
The Cardinals beat the Browns 34-20, the same score by which the Raiders beat the Jets. But those games were very, very different: Arizona finished with a Game Script of +0.3, while Oakland had an average lead of +11.2. Final scores can be deceiving, and these games are a good example: the Browns actually led Arizona at halftime, 20-10, while the Jets trailed Oakland 28-6 in the third quarter. Final scores can be deceiving, but Game Scripts can provide that additional context.
On the pass-happy side, four teams stood out, with Miami and New England engaging in a pass-happy battle on Thursday night football. The Dolphins were super pass-happy again (sound familiar?), although that may not be shocking given the -13.6 Game Script. [1]Although if you look at the other seven teams this year with a Game Script between -12 and -15, those teams averaged a pass ratio of 71%. New England still passed over 60% of the time in the same game, but the Patriots are no strangers to having a strong pass identity.
Pittsburgh actually had a positive Game Script in the loss to Cincinnati, but still wound up passing 72% of the time. The Steelers seemed to forget about the running game once Le’Veon Bell went down, even though Ben Roethlisberger averaged an anemic 2.60 ANY/A on 48 dropbacks.
The Browns had no running game at all against Arizona despite the neutral Game Script: excluding quarterbacks, the Browns rushed 14 times for 20 yards. Meanwhile, Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel recorded 41 dropbacks and rushed 6 more times. With McCown questionable to play tomorrow night against the Bengals — and an opponent who could cause the Game Script to spiral out of control — the Browns may wind up putting a significant amount of weight on the shoulders of Manziel if he gets the start. Then again, with a pair of running backs averaging 3.2 yards per carry, there may not be much alternative for Cleveland.
References
| ↑1 | Although if you look at the other seven teams this year with a Game Script between -12 and -15, those teams averaged a pass ratio of 71%. |
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